Beverage Business Briefing

Carlos DeOliveira
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Business

Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

  1. 4d ago

    Bribery Fines, Canadian Tariffs, and the Destock Reality

    - Compliance: Southern Glazer’s $12.5 million NPA over retailer bribery; TTB no further action; Almave NA listing continues. - Inventories & destock: Evercore ISI July data, 1.66 inventory-to-sales ratio, pantry levels rising. - Off-premise NIQ (4 weeks to Aug 29): total alcohol –4.3% dollars / –6.1% volume; beer weakest; RTDs, NA, imports, super-premium holding; detailed brand and manufacturer gainers (Pacifico, Victoria, Surfside, Super Lyte, Josh, LaMarca, Deutsch, etc.). - Depletions: WSWA SipSource wine/spirits –6.8% LTM; spirits weaker than wine; on-premise less damaged. - Earnings & leadership: Molson Coors S&P 500 exit despite beat; Pernod U.S. –14%, recovery 2029; Fever-Tree guidance; Boston Beer CMO Allison Stransky; Brown-Forman whiskey “exaggerated demise,” barrel/bulk collapse, craft distillery contraction. - M&A, bankruptcy, capacity: Reyes/Western Maryland; RNDC DIP, Reyes settlement, Martignetti Control States; Signorello Ch. 11; Brookside/Sbragia; Saothair/FIFCO USA (Genesee, Labatt, etc.) restoring North American Breweries. - Trade policy: Trump proclamation banning most Canadian alcohol Sept 29 (section 338, 50% duties); DISCUS/AWA export collapse; Sapporo shifting production onshore; SpiritsEurope EU exports down; O’Charley’s closures. - Hemp: Ohio injunction (Delta Beverages v. Canepa); Hemp Beverage Alliance new directors; Dec 11 federal deadline. - Legal/IP: Cielo e Terra TTAB win; Vintage 99 trade-secrets injunction hearing; Bordeaux Cellars fraud sentence. - Consumer: SAMHSA AUD and use declines; Southern Glazer’s Raise the Bar H2 themes (Gen Z, RTDs 94% of spirits growth, on-premise discovery, K-shaped, NA year-round); IWSR per-capita –11% vs 2019; Costco still spending. - Other: Wine Institute toolkit; Christina Aguilera/Beau Joie; NRA “Made in Restaurants”; obituaries (Gayheart/Buffalo Trace, Coleman/Gallo, Rinaldi/Duckhorn); Illusionist/Benchmark; Kendall Jenner/Trip; Bain holiday forecast (F&B flat).

  2. Sep 4

    US alcohol industry in structural freefall

    - **Key Themes**: Prolonged U.S. volume contraction in beer (16th month of tax-paid declines, BPI at 40, craft conglomerates under 25% growth), wine (light 2026 crush, tasting-room misalignment), and spirits (destocking, tequila weakness, Canadian whisky tariffs); RTDs, NA, and price/mix as sole offsets; wholesale fragmentation via RNDC Chapter 11. - **Notable Stories**: Saothair restores NAB/FIFCO USA independence with Labatt, Genesee, and RTDs; Brown-Forman Q1 GM 60.2%, RTD momentum, tequila drag, rejected Sazerac/Pernod; Pernod FY sales -3.9% organic, U.S. -14%, soft through 2029, Italicus close; RNDC Georgia WARN 558 jobs, lease rejections, Indiana LOI to MBG; Martignetti buys Girardi; NDC expansion; Sierra Nevada packaging refresh; Signorello Ch11, Pickett Fire claims, Napa climate plan; Gallup 54% drinkers (record low), alcohol-cancer deaths doubled; hemp prohibition delayed; Delaware DTC flawed launch. - **Big Takeaways**: Multi-year destock and demographic moderation (Gen Z, health, GLP-1, cannabis) shrink the volume base through 2026–2029; execution now hinges on independent wholesalers, RTD/NA recruitment, small formats, and specialty grocery; wine faces overlapping harvest, fire, credit, and narrative risks; operators underwrite grind, not recovery, with 2029 as the earliest large-house ca

  3. Aug 28

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | August 28, 2026

    **Key Themes:** Record-low US drinking participation (Gallup 54%) colliding with cannabis surge (17% smoking, 15% edibles, use disorder doubling among 40-50s); no summer sales rebound (NIQ Total Alcohol -3.4% dollars/-5.3% volume; beer heaviest drag); dollars holding via price/mix, NA beer, sparkling, select RTDs and Mexican/super-premium SKUs while core beer, still wine and most craft stay volume-soft; on-premise betting on beverages as traffic drivers, NA options, spritzes, sports occasions and Champagne; distribution consolidation and access risk post-RNDC/Reyes; family-control drama and private-balance-sheet buying in whiskey. - **Notable Stories:** Gallup details plus Beer Institute LDA pushback, CDC death-rate rise, Dietary Guidelines shift, IWSR premiumisation and Gen Z drinking rebound, Come Over October hosting study; Circana data restatement (milder beer slide) and brand-level winners/losers (Michelob, Pacifico, New Belgium, Athletic Brewing, BuzzBallz, Cutwater, Surfside vs. Truly, Bud, Blue Moon, Tilray); NRA 2026 beverage trends (87% FSR traffic driver, beverage-only occasions, delivery packaging); Archie Rose US entry with Chris Hemsworth and Reyes; Fever-Tree Goldman update; PACK Design Awards (One Stone, Parducci, Cycles Gladiator); Wente acreage sale; Ironstone/Kautz acquisition of Thomas Allen portfolio (Weekday Wines/Water); WMC wine-perception vs. content-frequency gap; Turrentine/Wine Business bulk-wine overhang; Cain Vineyard restoration (Dalla Valle/Coastal/Third Leaf); Reyes/RNDC integration memo; BJ’s SKU cut and membership strength; Walmart slowest SSS since 2019; Brown-Forman $15B Sazerac bid, family letter, Whiting retirement, Wolf Pen control, operating weakness; Sazerac Garrard County Distilling buy; Sapporo/Stone Escondido wind-down and layoffs; American single malt struggles (Westland, Westward, Balcones); soccer on-premise beer lift, Red Lobster Endless Shrimp return, 47 dry counties. - **Big Takeaways:** Volume-down, price-and-occasion tape into Labor Day; cannabis as direct competitor for the same dollar and occasion; NA beer, RTDs (especially spirits-based), sparkling, aperitif spritzes and event-driven beer as the growth pockets; productive placement and scaled brands favored after wholesale consolidation; listed whiskey cheap enough for hostile bids while private players like Sazerac buy distressed capacity; wine needs more cultural frequency and $20-30 discovery pricing rather than image overhaul or cheap bulk; operators should plan around fewer, more intentional drinkers, defend traffic with beverage-led menus and NA, and put scarce dollars behind SKUs that actually reorder.

  4. Aug 21

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | August 21, 2026

    - **Record-low participation and volume declines**: Gallup 54% adult drinking (Lydia Saad); NIQ off-premise $8.5bn -3.6%, volume -5.4% (Aug 8 four weeks); beer volumes -4.4% to -6.3%; wine dollars up, cases down ~7%. - **World Cup miss**: ABI $110m Michelob Ultra spend, Doukeris 0.25% lift; Circana/BeerBoard/BMI data show no category rescue; spirits RTDs (Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser) captured occasions. - **Diageo reset**: Uncompetitive North America; $19.6bn sales -2-3% organic, profit -27%; $1.2bn restructuring, ~2,000 headcount cut, possible 3-5k more jobs; dividend halved; RTD tilt, Smirnoff/Captain Morgan reinvestment; India flavouring reformulation (Antiquity Blue, Royal Challenge, McDowell’s). - **Leadership and M&A**: Boston Beer CFO Reynoso to Ingredion (Murphy interim); Precept acquires Miller Family (Butternut etc.); Campari sells Martinique rums to Les Bienheureux; Sazerac in talks for Au Vodka (~£500m); Ardagh Metal Packaging stake sale; C&S majority of Winn-Dixie; TWE activist Foye, Americas EBIT collapse, US review. - **Wine production and regulation**: Napa Winery Definition Ordinance 23 proposed changes; Oregon A to Z/Erath/Rex Hill production -32%; mothballing in Mendocino/Sonoma/Lake; Pierce’s disease resurgence and hybrids (Ojai, UC Davis); stainless tanks 42.5% share; ACS cancels Wine & Spirits Gala. - **Labor, theft, politics**: Teamsters contracts at Breakthru (Cicero/St. Louis) and Southern Glazer’s NY (30% wages); Boston Beer Jamaica Plain union petition (UFCW 328); NC ABC warehouse stalemate (Bauer vs Hall/Berger); cargo theft $200m+ rail incidents, House bill (Valadao); Mexican beer tariff poll 3-to-1 support (McLaughlin, Teamsters O’Brien). - **Consumer nuance**: Gen Z participation rebound (IWSR 74%, Morning Consult frequency up) vs isolation (ATUS 1-in-10 young adults zero face-to-face time); NA beer/wine/spirits growth; 17% tried NA alternatives (Gallup); Jefferies 27 headwinds, screen time (Asahi CEO). - **Craft and vendors**: BA 4% H1 decline but 54% growing; Voodoo Ranger G-Force, Sierra Nevada Go-Two IPA; distributors de-emphasizing craft, adding RTDs/NA; Sonoma Cast Stone, G3, BevZero, Uncle Nearest receivership. - **Big takeaway**: Volume is the problem; price/mix, RTDs, NA, and select brands (Michelob, Pacifico, Cutwater, Josh, La Marca) are the offset. Diageo’s America-first turnaround plus labor, theft, and reputational pressures reshape access and risk into 2027

  5. Aug 14

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | August 14, 2026

    Key themes - Clinical moderation: AUD down about 4 million people; mild cases drove the drop; Surgeon General cancer advisory, youth cohort habits, cannabis substitution, and GLP-1s in the mix - Two-speed market: depletions and inventories stabilizing, not recovering; off-premise still the bottleneck; on-premise and World Cup occasions outperforming - RNDC breakup rewriting access and credit: K1RC Kentucky LOI after Breakthru walked; Reyes 11-state deal already done; Proximo $93.92 million unsecured; WVVI and TWE credit and stock damage - Wine supply destruction: TWE nearly $1.25 billion US impairments including Daou, Frank Family, Beaulieu; Napa Cab bulk dead despite shatter; G-3, Bronco, Gallo, Courtside cuts; Pickett Fire lawsuit - RTD, NA, hemp, and energy winning mix: premixed cocktails, Athletic/Heineken 0.0/Michelob Ultra Zero, hemp parity bill, Monster energy compounding while its alcohol book shrinks - Three-tier and policy fights: CA craft-distiller DTC dying; WBA vs Diageo on type-based regulation; NC ABC cheap-SKU hike delayed; Common Cents Act; Tamarron craft SKU cuts and THC additions Notable company and brand moves - Treasury Wine Estates: dividend scrapped, Americas EBIT collapse, second writedown wave, Penfolds carrying the group, possible US exit - Willamette Valley Vineyards: loss after RNDC credit allowance; sales slightly down - Suntory / Greg Hughes: US destocking, Japanese whisky push (Toki, Hibiki, Yamazaki), -196, Oaksmith, Jim Beam/Hornitos/Canadian Club pressure, Teacher’s India, Bowmore/Laphroaig - Diageo: Dave Lewis $1 billion restructure, $514 million severance, John O’Keeffe packaging reset on Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan; Don Julio 1942 packs - Monster: energy +20 percent-plus; Alcohol Brands -15.2 percent; CANarchy hangover - Fulton / Bemidji / True North / Finnegans / N*RC THC waters; Tilray / Terrapin / BrewDog / Carlsberg license; Pennsylvania Brewing dismissed Ch.11 - Molson Coors Horizon 2030 conservative; Boston Beer $25 million 10b5-1; Celsius ousts Eric Hanson amid Russ Savage stake - Keg 1 / K1RC, Breakthru, Reyes, Southern Glazer’s Proof cuts, Brown-Forman Kentucky - Wonderwerk, Barons de Rothschild / MISA, Josh, La Marca, Whitehaven, Kim Crawford, High Noon, BuzzBallz, Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, White Claw, Pacifico, Victoria, Athletic, Garage Beer / Red Robin, TGI Fridays - Sprouts expansion, Costco comps, Safeway discount lawsuit, Walmart value gap Big takeaways - Public-health numbers and commercial volumes are finally rhyming, but hemp, cannabis, energy, and GLP-1s are competing for the same occasions - Wholesaler destocking is real and constructive at the margin; consumer pantries and wine tanks are not cleared - Credit and placement risk stay elevated into late 2026 as RNDC assets trade and craft SKUs get culled - Price no longer papers over volume: wine is deflating, beer pricing power is fading, Walmart is widening the gap - Growth lanes that are actually working: imported sparkling and select wine brands, tequila añejo and unflavored vodka, premixed cocktails, NA beer, on-premise occasions, and a licensed hemp path if Congress follows through

  6. Aug 7

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | August 07, 2026

    - **Diageo reset:** ~$1B cost cuts ($850M operating model + $150M supply chain); organic sales –2% to $19.6B; NA –8.4%; US spirits –11.5%; dividend halved; guidance to low-single-digit sales / mid-single-digit OP growth; Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Crown Royal value-pack push; Don Julio/Casamigos smaller formats; RTDs across cores; Guinness ~$1B to 2030; shares +5.6%. - **RNDC Chapter 11:** >$3B brand revenue lost; >$400M unsecured claims (~$94M Proximo largest); liabilities $1–10B vs assets $500M–$1B; 5,444+ WARN layoffs; Reyes 11-market deal (~38M cases, 16 states); Southern Glazer’s Eagle Rock Colorado close (full A-B portfolio + Cutwater/NÜTRL/BeatBox); Martignetti Michigan brokerage + Breakthru IN/KY JVs; Heimark acquiring Alford (Imperial, CA). - **Molson Coors Q2:** Revenue $3.10B –3.3%; adj EPS $1.58 beat; volumes soft; Coors Banquet strong; Blue Moon/Core Lights weak; Keystone Light Apple & Keystone Ice; Atomic/Monaco RTD integration; FY guidance reaffirmed (flat sales, profit down mid-teens). - **Off-premise scans (Circana/NIQ/TD Cowen/Goldman):** Total bev-alc under pressure; beer decisive drag; spirits + RTDs outperform; Michelob, White Claw, Pacifico, Athletic, Bell’s gain; Bud, Miller Lite, Twisted Tea, Modelo soft; World Cup on-prem beer lift. - **AB InBev / Cutwater:** Bud Light barrels sliding (12.7M est.); media shift to Michelob Ultra; Cutwater toward $1B, #1 share-gaining US spirits brand, high-ABV canned cocktails. - **Campari H1:** +2.7% organic; Espolon +8.2% H1 / #2 premium tequila; Aperol activation + later +3.3% H1 slowdown; St-Germain +40% on Hugo spritz; Courvoisier growth; portfolio exits (Cabo Wabo, Bisquit; agricole talks); tariff-refund profit outlook raise. - **MGP / Brown-Forman / bulk whiskey:** MGP sales –15%, brown goods –59%, Limestone Branch & Lux Row paused; Penelope +13%; BF Citi negative catalyst watch, rejected Sazerac ~$15B approach; Jack Daniel’s Blackberry cycle. - **Craft beer:** BA H1 volume –4%; only IPA brands growing in top 30 (Voodoo Ranger family, Hazy Little Thing, Space Dust, Little Sumpin’, etc.). - **Wine stress:** WMC leadership handoff (Thach ? Egan); Sauvignon Blanc/white blends/NA wine bright; Cab/Chard soft; Signorello $37M foreclosure auction; bulk Pinot “giveaway”; Beckstoffer layoffs/unfarmed acres; mothballing trials; Napa compliance ~$23.65/case; WA acreage –40%; Concha y Toro US transition pain; Bronco–Jordan partnership; Willamette Valley preferred offering; Come Over October ~3B impressions. - **Cannabis crossover:** SAMHSA—21.4M daily/near-daily marijuana > 17.2M daily alcohol > 19.9M cigarettes; daily cannabis +21% since 2021; Perfect Union RFID self-checkout first in CA. - **Hemp & regulatory:** White House/Senate CR delay fight (Nov 12 ? Dec 11 non-synthetic); 35 AGs oppose delay; Hemp Beverage Alliance applauds; Safe Sips Act color-coding; NC ABC min-price hike; Oregon 2028 grocery-spirits initiative; FTC–Southern Glazer’s Robinson-Patman extension; Jack Daniel’s Bad Spaniels tarnishment injunction overturned; Origin Spirits v. Starbucks (Kalak); SweetWater/Tilray logo dispute dismissed. - **Portfolio / M&A / other:** Johnson Brothers × William Grant (IN/NE/ND/SD); Corby sells Lamb’s rum; Next Century Spirits acquires Chicken C**k, Dixie, Elvis Whiskey, EG Booz + Bardstown/NuLu assets; Beckmann/Becle into LAFC ownership; Daily Pour acquires Rum Lab + Rum Festival platform; Costco traffic resilient; Bloomin’/Outback trade-up; Marie Brizard US +12% Q2; India FSSAI additive bans; wildfire watch (Sonoma Woodside, Gironde). - **Big takeaway:** RNDC unwind + daily cannabis overtaking alcohol redefine risk; near-term defense = price/mix, value packs, high-proof RTDs (Cutwater, Monaco, flavored spirits), premium tequila/aperitifs (Espolon, Aperol/St-Germain), and total-beverage distributor scale (Reyes, Southern Glazer’s). Beer scale, IPA concentration, bulk whiskey, and wine inventory/credit remain the headwinds to watch through 2H 2026.

  7. Jul 31

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 31, 2026

    ### Key themes - **RNDC Chapter 11** reshapes national wholesale; two-route-to-market split accelerates - **Two-speed industry:** price/premium/RTD/NA strength vs. volume, craft, and mid-tier pressure - **Wine supply destruction** in California alongside K-shaped demand - **M&A and succession:** Sazerac/Brown-Forman, Cobblestone/Campari assets, Whiting retirement - **Policy pile-up:** hemp three-tier, DtC enforcement, state pricing, Scotch tariff relief, EPR, labeling ### Major corporate & earnings - **RNDC:** Ch. 11 (S.D. Tex., July 26); $1–10B liabilities; 100k+ creditors; top-30 unsecured >$300M; Proximo $93.92M largest; DIP $75M; NDC and most JVs excluded; 5,000+ jobs preserved via prior sales (Reyes, Columbia, Martignetti, BreakThru); Quality Brands closes Plains (NE/ND/SD) - **ABI:** Strong global beat; U.S. +2.7% revenue on price/mix; Ultra, Busch Light, Busch Light Apple top share gainers; Cutwater doubles; NA beer mid-30s%; outlook 4–8% EBITDA; Sept. capital markets event - **MGP:** Sales -14.5%; EPS beat; Penelope/Yellowstone/Everclear strength; 52-brand cut; Distilling -42%; guidance reaffirmed; ex-Pernod hires; SirDavis liquid for Beyoncé - **Campari:** +2.7% H1 organic; NA +2.9%; aperitifs +4%; Wild Turkey pressure; selling **Cabo Wabo** & **Bisquit & Dubouché** to **Cobblestone** (Dennis Carr; close by Oct 31, 2026) - **Rémy Cointreau:** Cognac +7.7% organic; Louis XIII mix; group +1.3% - **Becle/Proximo:** Q2 -5.8% CC; US/Canada sequential improvement post-RNDC exit; Cuervo soft, other tequilas sturdier; FY low-single-digit decline outlook - **Brown-Forman:** Whiting retiring; search on (Masick, Farrer flagged); FY26 sales -1%, EPS -17%; FY27 flat sales / OI -3–5%; **Sazerac $15B / $32** bid rejected again (Wells + Apollo backing) - **Boston Beer:** EPS miss; depletions -6%; GM guide up; A&P/capex trim; Truly Unruly as higher-ABV bet - **Chapel Down:** H1 +19%; U.S. via Jackson Family (31 states, 250 Whole Foods) +66% intl - **LVMH W&S:** H1 +5% organic; US Hennessy still soft; VS RTS launch negligible - **TGI Fridays:** Liquidating Ch. 11 plan confirmed (~99.5% creditor approval) ### Category & consumer tape - bw166 L12M: beer -5.6%, wine -5.7%, spirits -7.4%; spirits RTDs = 28% of spirits shipments; off-prem $ +1.6%, on-prem $ +5.2%; per-LDA servings index 85.9 - NABCA June: spirits vol +4.8% (extra days); cocktails/RTDs +33.7% vol; tequila broad-based; Scotch -3%; R12 wine still deep red; on-prem spirits firm - NBWA BPI July = 51 (craft 26; premium lights 52; FMB/seltzer 55) - NIQ: post-holiday reset lower; prepared cocktails only major dollar-growth segment; domestic premium & seltzer largest $ drains; NA beer and super premium bright; home-bar inventory ~4.9 months (Evercore) - Circana craft four-week still soft; Athletic Brewing, select IPA SKUs (Voodoo Ranger, Hazy Little Thing, Space Dust, A Little Sumpin’, Pernicious) outperform; Blue Moon -10.4% - On-prem: Margarita velocity -16% but still #1; Martini +29%; RTD venues ~96k; functional +49% - IWSR: participation steady; Gen Z LDA+ up; drinks/occasion down; cocktail-led Gen Z - Conference Board CCI 90.8; RBC $84T wealth transfer thesis (helps premium spirits, hurts beer) ### Wine supply & regional - CA: ~38k acres out; 40–50k more expected; 500k+ tons unpicked; bulk ~39M gal; 2025 crush 2.62M tons (-8%+); red white; Pinot -30% since 2021 - **Beckstoffer:** major Lake/Mendocino pullback; holds ~1k Napa acres; 50 of 65 staff laid off - Agave experiment: ~100 growers / ~1,000 acres / 7+ CA spirit producers (UC Davis); Tohoku climate suitability shift Napa–Sonoma ? Monterey–Mendocino - **Vine Enterprises** $47M Pleasant Valley Winery reinvestment (Steuben County, NY) - **WineAmerica:** Trezise out; Kaiser day-to-day - Innovint/K-shaped: top-quartile wineries ~+11% rev; bottom ~-6%; luxury/$100+ outperforms ### Brands & products to note - Michelob Ultra / Ultra Zero, Busch Light, Busch Light Apple, Cutwater - Penelope, Yellowstone, Everclear, SirDavis - Cabo Wabo, Bisquit & Dubouché, Knappogue Castle, Clontarf - Jose Cuervo, 1800, Maestro Dobel, Bushmills, B:oost (divested) - Wild Turkey, St-Germain, Aperol, Hennessy VS RTS, Louis XIII - High Noon, Truly Unruly, Sauvy B (Gott/Trinchero) - Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing, Elysian Space Dust, Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’, Wicked Weed Pernicious, Blue Moon, Athletic Brewing ### Regulatory / trade / compliance watchlist - MI PA 72 (SB 604): ADA fee redesign - Lawful Hemp Protection Act (Barr/Craig) — three-tier + federal tax risk to warehouse focus - Intensified DTC stings/ID rules (AL, AK, AZ, GA, IN, KS, MI, SD, others) - Ohio retailer DtC case ? Supreme Court petition - NC ABC minimum baseline pricing (strong voter opposition in poll) - KC singles ban paused by injunction - WI brewery permit revocation (political/compliance risk) - Scotch tariff-free restored July 24 - Teamsters push Mexican beer tariff vs. Constellation 74% U.S. value claim - DISCUS/Wine Institute Oregon EPR amicus (glass vs. plastic fee disparity) - WA/OR spirits tax burden (Tax Foundation) - NY “Cheers for Change” tied-house / foot-law modernization - Public-health push for alcohol harm labeling (CDC 178k deaths cite) - SAMHSA NSDUH youth trends stable/down; JAMA prenatal alcohol use up 2011–2024 ### Big takeaways for operators 1. **Secure route-to-market and working capital now**—RNDC receivables and replacement-distributor leverage are the acute risk. 2. **Double down on what’s still earning dollars:** premium beer icons, spirits RTDs/prepared cocktails, NA beer, selective tequila second labels, aperitif culture, focused branded spirits. 3. **Wine is a barbell:** luxury and top-quartile execution versus bulk/oversupply exit; placement windows may open where RNDC doors loosened. 4. **Expect more consolidation and capital recycling** (distributor territories, non-core spirit brands, CEO succession catalysts). 5. **Budget for policy friction:** hemp capacity competition, DtC compliance cost, state pricing experiments, packaging EPR, and labeling.

  8. Jul 24

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 24, 2026

    **Week framed by:** Soft post-holiday off-premise demand, Brown-Forman CEO succession, Diageo cost/strategy reset, Canada/Mexico trade escalation, A-B decree expiry, RTD & NA outperformance ### Major corporate & leadership - **Brown-Forman:** CEO Lawson Whiting to retire on successor appointment; board search (chair Tracy Skeans); FY26 sales $3.9B (-1%), EPS $1.53 (-17%); FY27 flat organic sales, -3–5% organic OI; stock $26.25; Pernod talks ended Apr 28; Sazerac ~$15B /$32/sh bid rejected May; internal names Michael Masick, Marshall Farrer; Wolf Pen Branch supportive - **Diageo:** CEO Dave Lewis cutting headcount 20–30% (some units to ~40%); Accelerate $625M by 2028 / ~$300M this year; H1 OM 29.8% (+85 bps); Aug 6 CMD—power brands (Guinness, tequila), Casamigos price-pack vs Don Julio, flatter model; Chair Sir John Manzoni recruiting commercial board heavyweights; US spirits >50% EBIT; 5-yr shares roughly -50% / -49.1%; 4-wk sales -7.3%, vol -8.8%, Casamigos -10.9%, Don Julio -8.7% - **Jim Cramer:** Avoid every liquor stock; category “cold” - **Wine Market Council:** Dr. Liz Thach, MW retires Aug 5; Michelle Egan succeeds - **Apogee 21 Holdings:** LOI for Rod & Hammer (Central Coast craft distillery) after Noble Oak (from Edrington); target Q4 close - **21st Amendment / Evil Genius:** TTB offer in compromise $423,681.93 on $1.22M claim (San Leandro, 2018–2025); brand acquired Apr 2026 - **Independent Stave / Alabama Cooperage (Trinity):** Closing Sept 14, >70 jobs; Jack Daniel’s barrels; was BF asset, opened 2014 - **Flavorman:** Moonshine University closing Dec 31, 2026 (337 courses, 15k+ attendees, ~300 launches); Stave & Thief wind-down - **Concannon dispute:** Lemmons Family Vineyards vs Darcie Kent / Almost Famous; ~$966k; hearing Aug 10 ### Sales, scanners & consumers - **NIQ / Circana:** Post-July 4 snap-back then hangover; total alcohol ~$9.3B, roughly -2.6% to -3% dollars; wine worst, spirits relatively firmer when RTDs included; prepared cocktails sole major dollar-growth pocket - **Spirits mix:** Prep cocktails vol ~+19.5%; core spirits ex-RTD vol -3.4%, sales -2.4%; tequila flipped +0.5%; whiskey/vodka still weak - **Beer winners:** Pacifico, Victoria, Michelob / Ultra Zero NA, Guinness, Smirnoff FMBs, Athletic, New Belgium; NA beer +17.8%; Modelo/STZ solid; Bud Light/Budweiser/Heineken pressured - **RTD rockets:** BuzzBallz, Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, Carbliss, Monaco; High Noon -8.4% - **Boston Beer:** Scanner vol ~-8.3% in quarter; Truly/Twisted Tea challenged; Sun Cruiser bright spot; 48–50% GM guide - **Wine:** DTC June -11% value / -16% vol; YTD value -4%, vol -15%; avg bottle $59.20 (+12.4%); Napa only major region in value growth; LaMarca, Josh, Whitehaven, Avaline strong; Deutsch +, Gallo/Wine Group -; NA wine +15.7% - **Craft BA H1:** Prod -4%; 9,344 breweries (-1.8%); 54% of breweries growing; craft drinker monthly incidence 85% (+10 pts) - **Energy:** Category firm; Monster/Ultra, Celsius/Alani Nu (+45.5%), Ghost +; Red Bull/KDP mixed - **IWSR / Gen Z:** Participation ~70%+; Gen Z 71–74% and rising; Millennials 81%; drinks/occasion 3.9 (from 4.4); Gen Z highly cocktail-oriented (84%) - **Wholesale (Census/FRED):** May beer/wine/spirits $15.381B - **Evercore beer:** 2026 vol outlook ~-2.4% (vs -5.4% in 2025); STZ/ABI share gainers; Cutwater sourcing from spirits & beer - **On-premise / NRA:** Restaurant opex +36% vs pre-pandemic (= menu +36%); wages +41%; 42% of operators unprofitable in 2025; World Cup week on-prem beer +11.5% ### Distribution & trade - **A-B DOJ consent decree:** Expired July 20, 2026—monitor, anti-punishment rules, distribution caps gone; 100–150 distributors reportedly flagged out of compliance last year - **Quality Brands / RNDC:** Closed Plains deal (NE, ND, SD); ~160 employees retained; Dave Young President W&S; Eric Malone VP Sales - **RNDC Michigan:** Conditional WARN—641 workers, five sites, Aug 17 date; potential Martignetti control-state deal unconfirmed - **Canada Section 338:** +50% duties effective Aug 19, 2026; response to provincial US alcohol bans since Mar 2025; US?Canada alcohol imports -81% ($718M?$137M); only AB & SK eased; DISCUS warns of retaliation spiral - **Teamsters / Mexican beer:** Seek tariffs up to 75% on Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, Tecate et al.; MX production +85% since 2014; ~80% of MX beer exports to US; US brewery utilization 82%?65% (2013–23); +19–23M hl MX capacity planned; USTR 301 backdrop ### Regulation, tax & legal - **Oregon EPR:** DISCUS + Wine Institute amicus (NAWD v. Feldon)—glass vs plastic fee disparity; Commerce Clause angle - **Tax Foundation:** WA effective spirits tax $36.68/gal vs median $5.98; OR $23.74 - **NY Cheers for Change:** Push to modernize 200-ft / 500-ft, multi-store, tied-house rules - **Minnesota:** “Grandparents’ Happy Hour” for nursing homes / assisted living events - **Oregon OHA:** Alcohol-as-asbestos/tobacco ads; 3,000+ alcohol deaths/yr; industry clash; Oregon Alcohol Policy Alliance supportive of OHA - **Alabama ABC:** Bailment fee 72¢?$1.00 (Oct 2025); further hike delayed pending warehouse - **WSWA:** 938 alcohol and/or hemp bills tracked in state legislatures in 2026 - **Missouri HB 1740:** Bentley Law + Melanie’s Law—child support after DWI parental death; tougher felony DWI; interlocks; 8th Bentley state - **SCOTUS:** Ken Jouppi (AK) Cessna ~$95k forfeiture case after passenger’s Budweiser six-pack toward dry village—Eighth Amendment / excessive fines - **Washington wildfires:** Chelan Hills ~10,000 acres; B&O >2,700 acres—vineyard/orchard impact assessment ongoing ### Big takeaways 1. **Holiday noise ? recovery** — dollars stabilized only modestly YoY after July 4; volume still soft outside RTD/NA/select imports 2. **Prepared cocktails & NA define growth** — core spirits, wine, and much of craft still negative 3. **Leadership & cost discipline** — Brown-Forman succession + Diageo purge signal a tougher operating era 4. **Route-to-market is shifting** — A-B decree expiry, RNDC/Martignetti/Quality Brands moves, Plains consolidation 5. **Trade risk is live** — Canada 50% duties Aug 19; Teamsters pressing 75% Mexican beer tariffs 6. **Policy grid is dense** — taxes, EPR, tied-house, DWI liability, TTB enforcement, 938 state bills 7. **Calendar markers:** Aug 6 Diageo CMD/results · Boston Beer print · Aug 10 Concannon hearing · Aug 17 RNDC WARN date · Aug 19 Canada duties · Sept 14 Alabama Cooperage close · Dec 31 Moonshine University close

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About

Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

Information

  • Creator
    Carlos DeOliveira
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    51
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 Carlos DeOliveira
  • Show Website
    Beverage Business Briefing

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