Beverage Business Briefing

Carlos DeOliveira
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Business

Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

  1. 36m ago

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 31, 2026

    ### Key themes - **RNDC Chapter 11** reshapes national wholesale; two-route-to-market split accelerates - **Two-speed industry:** price/premium/RTD/NA strength vs. volume, craft, and mid-tier pressure - **Wine supply destruction** in California alongside K-shaped demand - **M&A and succession:** Sazerac/Brown-Forman, Cobblestone/Campari assets, Whiting retirement - **Policy pile-up:** hemp three-tier, DtC enforcement, state pricing, Scotch tariff relief, EPR, labeling ### Major corporate & earnings - **RNDC:** Ch. 11 (S.D. Tex., July 26); $1–10B liabilities; 100k+ creditors; top-30 unsecured >$300M; Proximo $93.92M largest; DIP $75M; NDC and most JVs excluded; 5,000+ jobs preserved via prior sales (Reyes, Columbia, Martignetti, BreakThru); Quality Brands closes Plains (NE/ND/SD) - **ABI:** Strong global beat; U.S. +2.7% revenue on price/mix; Ultra, Busch Light, Busch Light Apple top share gainers; Cutwater doubles; NA beer mid-30s%; outlook 4–8% EBITDA; Sept. capital markets event - **MGP:** Sales -14.5%; EPS beat; Penelope/Yellowstone/Everclear strength; 52-brand cut; Distilling -42%; guidance reaffirmed; ex-Pernod hires; SirDavis liquid for Beyoncé - **Campari:** +2.7% H1 organic; NA +2.9%; aperitifs +4%; Wild Turkey pressure; selling **Cabo Wabo** & **Bisquit & Dubouché** to **Cobblestone** (Dennis Carr; close by Oct 31, 2026) - **Rémy Cointreau:** Cognac +7.7% organic; Louis XIII mix; group +1.3% - **Becle/Proximo:** Q2 -5.8% CC; US/Canada sequential improvement post-RNDC exit; Cuervo soft, other tequilas sturdier; FY low-single-digit decline outlook - **Brown-Forman:** Whiting retiring; search on (Masick, Farrer flagged); FY26 sales -1%, EPS -17%; FY27 flat sales / OI -3–5%; **Sazerac $15B / $32** bid rejected again (Wells + Apollo backing) - **Boston Beer:** EPS miss; depletions -6%; GM guide up; A&P/capex trim; Truly Unruly as higher-ABV bet - **Chapel Down:** H1 +19%; U.S. via Jackson Family (31 states, 250 Whole Foods) +66% intl - **LVMH W&S:** H1 +5% organic; US Hennessy still soft; VS RTS launch negligible - **TGI Fridays:** Liquidating Ch. 11 plan confirmed (~99.5% creditor approval) ### Category & consumer tape - bw166 L12M: beer -5.6%, wine -5.7%, spirits -7.4%; spirits RTDs = 28% of spirits shipments; off-prem $ +1.6%, on-prem $ +5.2%; per-LDA servings index 85.9 - NABCA June: spirits vol +4.8% (extra days); cocktails/RTDs +33.7% vol; tequila broad-based; Scotch -3%; R12 wine still deep red; on-prem spirits firm - NBWA BPI July = 51 (craft 26; premium lights 52; FMB/seltzer 55) - NIQ: post-holiday reset lower; prepared cocktails only major dollar-growth segment; domestic premium & seltzer largest $ drains; NA beer and super premium bright; home-bar inventory ~4.9 months (Evercore) - Circana craft four-week still soft; Athletic Brewing, select IPA SKUs (Voodoo Ranger, Hazy Little Thing, Space Dust, A Little Sumpin’, Pernicious) outperform; Blue Moon -10.4% - On-prem: Margarita velocity -16% but still #1; Martini +29%; RTD venues ~96k; functional +49% - IWSR: participation steady; Gen Z LDA+ up; drinks/occasion down; cocktail-led Gen Z - Conference Board CCI 90.8; RBC $84T wealth transfer thesis (helps premium spirits, hurts beer) ### Wine supply & regional - CA: ~38k acres out; 40–50k more expected; 500k+ tons unpicked; bulk ~39M gal; 2025 crush 2.62M tons (-8%+); red white; Pinot -30% since 2021 - **Beckstoffer:** major Lake/Mendocino pullback; holds ~1k Napa acres; 50 of 65 staff laid off - Agave experiment: ~100 growers / ~1,000 acres / 7+ CA spirit producers (UC Davis); Tohoku climate suitability shift Napa–Sonoma ? Monterey–Mendocino - **Vine Enterprises** $47M Pleasant Valley Winery reinvestment (Steuben County, NY) - **WineAmerica:** Trezise out; Kaiser day-to-day - Innovint/K-shaped: top-quartile wineries ~+11% rev; bottom ~-6%; luxury/$100+ outperforms ### Brands & products to note - Michelob Ultra / Ultra Zero, Busch Light, Busch Light Apple, Cutwater - Penelope, Yellowstone, Everclear, SirDavis - Cabo Wabo, Bisquit & Dubouché, Knappogue Castle, Clontarf - Jose Cuervo, 1800, Maestro Dobel, Bushmills, B:oost (divested) - Wild Turkey, St-Germain, Aperol, Hennessy VS RTS, Louis XIII - High Noon, Truly Unruly, Sauvy B (Gott/Trinchero) - Voodoo Ranger Imperial IPA, Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing, Elysian Space Dust, Lagunitas A Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’, Wicked Weed Pernicious, Blue Moon, Athletic Brewing ### Regulatory / trade / compliance watchlist - MI PA 72 (SB 604): ADA fee redesign - Lawful Hemp Protection Act (Barr/Craig) — three-tier + federal tax risk to warehouse focus - Intensified DTC stings/ID rules (AL, AK, AZ, GA, IN, KS, MI, SD, others) - Ohio retailer DtC case ? Supreme Court petition - NC ABC minimum baseline pricing (strong voter opposition in poll) - KC singles ban paused by injunction - WI brewery permit revocation (political/compliance risk) - Scotch tariff-free restored July 24 - Teamsters push Mexican beer tariff vs. Constellation 74% U.S. value claim - DISCUS/Wine Institute Oregon EPR amicus (glass vs. plastic fee disparity) - WA/OR spirits tax burden (Tax Foundation) - NY “Cheers for Change” tied-house / foot-law modernization - Public-health push for alcohol harm labeling (CDC 178k deaths cite) - SAMHSA NSDUH youth trends stable/down; JAMA prenatal alcohol use up 2011–2024 ### Big takeaways for operators 1. **Secure route-to-market and working capital now**—RNDC receivables and replacement-distributor leverage are the acute risk. 2. **Double down on what’s still earning dollars:** premium beer icons, spirits RTDs/prepared cocktails, NA beer, selective tequila second labels, aperitif culture, focused branded spirits. 3. **Wine is a barbell:** luxury and top-quartile execution versus bulk/oversupply exit; placement windows may open where RNDC doors loosened. 4. **Expect more consolidation and capital recycling** (distributor territories, non-core spirit brands, CEO succession catalysts). 5. **Budget for policy friction:** hemp capacity competition, DtC compliance cost, state pricing experiments, packaging EPR, and labeling.

  2. 6d ago

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 24, 2026

    **Week framed by:** Soft post-holiday off-premise demand, Brown-Forman CEO succession, Diageo cost/strategy reset, Canada/Mexico trade escalation, A-B decree expiry, RTD & NA outperformance ### Major corporate & leadership - **Brown-Forman:** CEO Lawson Whiting to retire on successor appointment; board search (chair Tracy Skeans); FY26 sales $3.9B (-1%), EPS $1.53 (-17%); FY27 flat organic sales, -3–5% organic OI; stock $26.25; Pernod talks ended Apr 28; Sazerac ~$15B /$32/sh bid rejected May; internal names Michael Masick, Marshall Farrer; Wolf Pen Branch supportive - **Diageo:** CEO Dave Lewis cutting headcount 20–30% (some units to ~40%); Accelerate $625M by 2028 / ~$300M this year; H1 OM 29.8% (+85 bps); Aug 6 CMD—power brands (Guinness, tequila), Casamigos price-pack vs Don Julio, flatter model; Chair Sir John Manzoni recruiting commercial board heavyweights; US spirits >50% EBIT; 5-yr shares roughly -50% / -49.1%; 4-wk sales -7.3%, vol -8.8%, Casamigos -10.9%, Don Julio -8.7% - **Jim Cramer:** Avoid every liquor stock; category “cold” - **Wine Market Council:** Dr. Liz Thach, MW retires Aug 5; Michelle Egan succeeds - **Apogee 21 Holdings:** LOI for Rod & Hammer (Central Coast craft distillery) after Noble Oak (from Edrington); target Q4 close - **21st Amendment / Evil Genius:** TTB offer in compromise $423,681.93 on $1.22M claim (San Leandro, 2018–2025); brand acquired Apr 2026 - **Independent Stave / Alabama Cooperage (Trinity):** Closing Sept 14, >70 jobs; Jack Daniel’s barrels; was BF asset, opened 2014 - **Flavorman:** Moonshine University closing Dec 31, 2026 (337 courses, 15k+ attendees, ~300 launches); Stave & Thief wind-down - **Concannon dispute:** Lemmons Family Vineyards vs Darcie Kent / Almost Famous; ~$966k; hearing Aug 10 ### Sales, scanners & consumers - **NIQ / Circana:** Post-July 4 snap-back then hangover; total alcohol ~$9.3B, roughly -2.6% to -3% dollars; wine worst, spirits relatively firmer when RTDs included; prepared cocktails sole major dollar-growth pocket - **Spirits mix:** Prep cocktails vol ~+19.5%; core spirits ex-RTD vol -3.4%, sales -2.4%; tequila flipped +0.5%; whiskey/vodka still weak - **Beer winners:** Pacifico, Victoria, Michelob / Ultra Zero NA, Guinness, Smirnoff FMBs, Athletic, New Belgium; NA beer +17.8%; Modelo/STZ solid; Bud Light/Budweiser/Heineken pressured - **RTD rockets:** BuzzBallz, Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, Carbliss, Monaco; High Noon -8.4% - **Boston Beer:** Scanner vol ~-8.3% in quarter; Truly/Twisted Tea challenged; Sun Cruiser bright spot; 48–50% GM guide - **Wine:** DTC June -11% value / -16% vol; YTD value -4%, vol -15%; avg bottle $59.20 (+12.4%); Napa only major region in value growth; LaMarca, Josh, Whitehaven, Avaline strong; Deutsch +, Gallo/Wine Group -; NA wine +15.7% - **Craft BA H1:** Prod -4%; 9,344 breweries (-1.8%); 54% of breweries growing; craft drinker monthly incidence 85% (+10 pts) - **Energy:** Category firm; Monster/Ultra, Celsius/Alani Nu (+45.5%), Ghost +; Red Bull/KDP mixed - **IWSR / Gen Z:** Participation ~70%+; Gen Z 71–74% and rising; Millennials 81%; drinks/occasion 3.9 (from 4.4); Gen Z highly cocktail-oriented (84%) - **Wholesale (Census/FRED):** May beer/wine/spirits $15.381B - **Evercore beer:** 2026 vol outlook ~-2.4% (vs -5.4% in 2025); STZ/ABI share gainers; Cutwater sourcing from spirits & beer - **On-premise / NRA:** Restaurant opex +36% vs pre-pandemic (= menu +36%); wages +41%; 42% of operators unprofitable in 2025; World Cup week on-prem beer +11.5% ### Distribution & trade - **A-B DOJ consent decree:** Expired July 20, 2026—monitor, anti-punishment rules, distribution caps gone; 100–150 distributors reportedly flagged out of compliance last year - **Quality Brands / RNDC:** Closed Plains deal (NE, ND, SD); ~160 employees retained; Dave Young President W&S; Eric Malone VP Sales - **RNDC Michigan:** Conditional WARN—641 workers, five sites, Aug 17 date; potential Martignetti control-state deal unconfirmed - **Canada Section 338:** +50% duties effective Aug 19, 2026; response to provincial US alcohol bans since Mar 2025; US?Canada alcohol imports -81% ($718M?$137M); only AB & SK eased; DISCUS warns of retaliation spiral - **Teamsters / Mexican beer:** Seek tariffs up to 75% on Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, Tecate et al.; MX production +85% since 2014; ~80% of MX beer exports to US; US brewery utilization 82%?65% (2013–23); +19–23M hl MX capacity planned; USTR 301 backdrop ### Regulation, tax & legal - **Oregon EPR:** DISCUS + Wine Institute amicus (NAWD v. Feldon)—glass vs plastic fee disparity; Commerce Clause angle - **Tax Foundation:** WA effective spirits tax $36.68/gal vs median $5.98; OR $23.74 - **NY Cheers for Change:** Push to modernize 200-ft / 500-ft, multi-store, tied-house rules - **Minnesota:** “Grandparents’ Happy Hour” for nursing homes / assisted living events - **Oregon OHA:** Alcohol-as-asbestos/tobacco ads; 3,000+ alcohol deaths/yr; industry clash; Oregon Alcohol Policy Alliance supportive of OHA - **Alabama ABC:** Bailment fee 72¢?$1.00 (Oct 2025); further hike delayed pending warehouse - **WSWA:** 938 alcohol and/or hemp bills tracked in state legislatures in 2026 - **Missouri HB 1740:** Bentley Law + Melanie’s Law—child support after DWI parental death; tougher felony DWI; interlocks; 8th Bentley state - **SCOTUS:** Ken Jouppi (AK) Cessna ~$95k forfeiture case after passenger’s Budweiser six-pack toward dry village—Eighth Amendment / excessive fines - **Washington wildfires:** Chelan Hills ~10,000 acres; B&O >2,700 acres—vineyard/orchard impact assessment ongoing ### Big takeaways 1. **Holiday noise ? recovery** — dollars stabilized only modestly YoY after July 4; volume still soft outside RTD/NA/select imports 2. **Prepared cocktails & NA define growth** — core spirits, wine, and much of craft still negative 3. **Leadership & cost discipline** — Brown-Forman succession + Diageo purge signal a tougher operating era 4. **Route-to-market is shifting** — A-B decree expiry, RNDC/Martignetti/Quality Brands moves, Plains consolidation 5. **Trade risk is live** — Canada 50% duties Aug 19; Teamsters pressing 75% Mexican beer tariffs 6. **Policy grid is dense** — taxes, EPR, tied-house, DWI liability, TTB enforcement, 938 state bills 7. **Calendar markers:** Aug 6 Diageo CMD/results · Boston Beer print · Aug 10 Concannon hearing · Aug 17 RNDC WARN date · Aug 19 Canada duties · Sept 14 Alabama Cooperage close · Dec 31 Moonshine University close

  3. Jul 17

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 17, 2026

    **Key Themes** - Persistent off-premise softness (–2.7 to –3.1% dollars YTD/4-week ranges; volumes –3.9 to –4.9%) despite Independence Day and World Cup lifts. - Prepared cocktails/spirits-based RTDs and NA beer as primary growth engines; wine and craft under structural pressure. - Distribution shock from RNDC wind-down cascading into widespread payment delays; Reyes total-beverage rise and regional consolidations. - Escalating Canada trade friction via Tenney’s CANADA Act and Section 301 push. - Sharp wine-industry right-sizing: Top-50 production –19% since 2019, acute Napa vineyard economics, Oregon “worst crisis in 20 years,” early light California harvest. - Leadership and litigation drama: Brown-Forman CEO succession + $25.3 M compensation jump post-Sazerac reject; Uncle Nearest receivership/SEC/DOJ filings and Chapter 11 exploration. **Notable Stories & Brands** - **Trade & Policy:** CANADA Act (Tenney), endorsements (DISCUS, ACSA, AWA, Wine Institute, WineAmerica); AWA joins World Spirits Alliance; ERP amicus (DISCUS/Wine Institute); Common Cents Act; ABI/SABMiller consent decree expiration; SNAP bans & June 22 ruling; Oregon carcinogen post pushback; Washington/Oregon spirits taxes; NY “Cheers for Change”; Madison phishing; hemp legality cliff. - **Corporate Moves:** Lawson Whiting retirement/search (Brown-Forman; possible Masick/Farrer); Sazerac $15 B reject, Pernod talks ended; Rémy Cointreau flat Q1; Quality Brands/RNDC Plains (Young, Malone); Pellenc acq of P&L Specialties + Tom Beard; Firestone Walker/Stone; No Sleep’s The 100 Proof agency; Coca-Cola fairlife ransomware suspension. - **Sales & Format Wins:** Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, BuzzBallz, Super Lyte, Athletic, Asahi, New Belgium, Pacifico, Victoria, Peroni, Michelob, Modelo flips, NA beer, Josh, LaMarca; A-B prepared +33.7%; Hemp +133% case volume (Hemp Beverage Alliance). - **Wine Pressure & Green Shoots:** Gallo/Wine Group/Trinchero/Delicato/Deutsch/TWE/Ste. Michelle/Constellation metrics; Ted Hall/Long Meadow, Allied Grape Growers unharvested acres; Eleven Eleven (Anest) club metrics & flexible sub; Empson additions (Kirwan, Malescasse, Franc Mayne, de la Chapelle, Gérin & Fils); Liv-ex US fine-wine re-engagement (26.9% share); Kroger Wine Shop rollout; on-prem 6× markups & Colangelo/Southern Glazer’s/WMC data; Oregon/Wine Board/Stoller crisis; early Santa Rita Hills/Santa Barbara picks. - **Spirits & Risk:** Uncle Nearest (Young counterclaim “willful blindness,” Senzaki alleged fraud, Weaver terminations, $20 M MarcyPen, potential Ch. 11 Black-led sale); LIV Vodka vs LIV Golf; Diageo Casamigos/Don Julio declines + additive suit; Brown-Forman Canada/Jack Daniel’s –60%; celebrity cooling vs estate brands (James Dean/Lasso Motel, Remus Babe Ruth/Lou Gehrig, Sinatra, Elvis, John Wayne). - **Consumer:** IWSR Gen Z participation rebound to 74% (U.S. ~71%); drinks/occasion to 3.9; Millennials still highest. **Big Takeaways** - Volume moderation and value architecture are structural; participation (especially Gen Z cocktails) is recovering. - Three-tier cash-flow stability and trade access now rank alongside brand innovation as top-of-mind risks. - Scale, smart-value mid-premium, flexible DTC, RTD/NA/hemp adjacency, and authentic provenance are the clearest differentiators for the balance of 2026. - Operators who treat connection, pricing realism and operational discipline as strategy continue to outperform.

  4. Jul 10

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 10, 2026

    **Category-Wide Trends** - Spirits overtook beer in U.S. alcohol revenue share for 2025 (42.4% vs. 41.8%) per DISCUS, even as beer still leads on volume - Wine fell below 300 million 9-liter cases for the first time in two decades - Off-premise total beverage alcohol dollars down ~3.1% for the four weeks ending June 27; wine hit hardest, club stores the only channel gaining - RTD/prepared cocktails remain the industry's standout growth pocket — spirits-based RTDs up 26-30% depending on source - Spirits volumes have declined four consecutive years (IWSR); Gallup pegs alcohol drinkers at an all-time low of 54% of Americans - NA beer, non-alcoholic wine, and energy drinks continue outsized growth **Beer** - Constellation Brands' beer division led supplier growth (Pacifico, Victoria, Barrilito gains) even as Modelo Especial and Corona declined - AB InBev split: Busch and Michelob Ultra (Zero) grew while core Budweiser family lost over $130M - Molson Coors, Heineken USA, Boston Beer posted steeper declines - Import brands (Sapporo, Guinness, Peroni, Kirin) got a modest World Cup-related bump - Beer Institute: 19th consecutive month of tax-paid shipment declines - Costco discontinuing Kirkland Signature Helles Lager/Vintage Ale (Deschutes Brewery partnership) **RTDs** - Cutwater (AB InBev), Surfside, Sun Cruiser posted triple-digit-adjacent growth - High Noon remains volume leader (~24M cases) despite a slight decline - Stateside's new Super Lyte depleted 120K cases in five weeks; targeting 1.5M for the year **Spirits & Tequila** - Diageo U.S. spirits sales fell double digits; Casamigos, Don Julio, Herradura, El Jimador all declined - Tequila's mass-market tier (71% of category) shrinking while craft grows ~28.5% annually; $100+ tier down 16.5% in volume - Class-action litigation alleges Casamigos/Don Julio falsely marketed as 100% agave - Diageo new CEO Dave Lewis ordering cost/headcount cuts; closed Aviation Gin visitor center in Portland - Diageo and Pernod Ricard trading at historically low multiples — Pernod now cheaper than BAT/Altria **Whiskey Oversupply & Bankruptcies** - Uncle Nearest in receivership after defaulting on ~$100M in barrel-backed loans; single bid received for barrel liquidation at steep discount - Kentucky Owl bankruptcy plan rejected by judge over pricing "race to the bottom" concerns - House Spirits Distillery (Oregon) previously filed for bankruptcy on same oversupply dynamics - WhistlePig sold Moriah, NY aging warehouses for $17M to raise capital **Wine** - Continued volume/dollar declines; Gallo and The Wine Group posted steepest losses; Deutsch Family/LaMarca bucked trend - Non-alcoholic wine surged double digits - GLP-1 drugs linked to modest consumption drag (Wine Market Council) - Oregon wine industry: grape production down 25%, exports down 29% (Canada shipments -83%) - California AB 1585 ("American" wine labeling bill) stalled in Senate after Assembly passage **Distribution** - Southern Glazer's shifting accounts to digital "Customer Solutions Team"/Proof Commerce; workforce reductions - RNDC breakup continues: Alaska layoffs, Columbia Distributing asset sale, Wilson Daniels realignment to Reyes/Johnson Brothers - Johnson Brothers expands Bogle partnership (IN, NE, SD); Breakthru adds Edrington brands in Illinois **Trade Policy** - Canadian provincial boycotts have slashed U.S. spirits exports 50-85% depending on measure; Ontario pulled ~$965M in U.S. alcohol - Rep. Claudia Tenney's CANADA Act seeks Section 301 investigation into Canadian restrictions - American Whiskey Association lobbying domestically and via World Spirits Alliance in Geneva (India market access) **Corporate Earnings** - PepsiCo: EPS beat, organic sales growth missed; Frito-Lay declined, Pepsi Beverages underperformed; North America weakness persists despite international strength **Retail** - Kroger rolling out staffed wine tasting bars in 147 stores - Costco June comps +7-7.6%, tougher comps expected ahead **Regulatory & Legal** - TTB's proposed "Alcohol Facts" labeling rule could overhaul packaging industry-wide - Yost v. Miller (SCOTUS) and Ninth Circuit DTC shipping case both testing interstate alcohol shipping rights - Gallo patent suit dismissed - Chad Wolf calls for Congressional probe into Chinese-linked hemp-THC beverage operations (Oklahoma cited) **Adjacent Categories** - Tobacco stocks (Altria, BAT) continuing to outperform; oral nicotine pouches gaining significant share

  5. Jul 3

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 03, 2026

    ## Market Overview - NIQ off-premise: total bev-alc dollars -3.6% YoY to $8.8B; volume -5.1% to 173.8M cases (4 wks ending 6/20) - Weekly bump +2.9% on World Cup, Juneteenth, early Father's Day - Wine -5.1%/-6.8%; Spirits -5.2%/-4.7%; Beer -3.7%/-4.5% - RTD cocktails the standout: spirits-based RTDs +28%/+28.5%; wine-based RTDs +7.3% - Top RTD growth brands: Cutwater (A-B, +124.5%), Surfside (Stateside, +57.5%), Sun Cruiser (Boston Beer, +101.8%) ## Beer - World Cup on-premise lift: national +5.5%, host markets +15.4%, Massachusetts +27.5%, NY/NJ +9.1% total/+18.5% on-premise, stadium concessions +21.7% - BeerBoard: host states +14.21% kegs/line, +12.07% revenue vs. +2.99% non-host - Michelob Ultra: 19.25% draft volume share (official World Cup beer); Pacifico #2 draft gainer - NIQ vendor rankings: New Belgium +4.6%, Asahi +38.8%, Sapporo +23.4%, Athletic Brewing +7.4%, Diageo +3.5% - Circana craft: dollars -4.6% (flat sequentially), volume improved to -6.2%; grocery weak, c-stores positive - Brand winners: Lagunitas Sumpin' Sumpin' +20.7%, Elysian Space Dust +12.5%, Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing +8.7%; Blue Moon -10.7% - NBWA Beer Purchasers' Index: 52 (4th straight expansionary month); imports +23pts to 61; cider hits 50 first time since 2018 - NA beer +10.7%; Athletic Brewing now 16th-largest beer vendor YTD ## Constellation Brands Earnings - Q1 FY27 EPS $3.43 beat ($3.19-3.21 est.); net sales $2.43B; beer sales $2.28B (+2%) - Wine/spirits organic sales +8% (Mi Campo Tequila +62%) despite reported -47% post-divestiture - FY guidance raised to $11.50-$12.20 EPS (from $11.20-$11.90) - CEO Nick Fink flags value-conscious consumer, GLP-1 impact, "pony" format strategy ## Wine - NIQ: dollars -5.1%, volume -6.8%; NA wine +14.4%; Gallo #1 despite -4.1%; Deutsch Family +1.1% - DTC premiumization: avg bottle price $54.64 (+17%); $150+ shipments +21% to $465M; sub-$40 volume -20% - Geographic shift: CA $100+ shipments -8%, Oregon -30%; Florida +50%, Arizona value 2x+ - NABCA May: wine 9L volume -8.8%, on-premise -9.8% - Restaurant wine markups now 4-5x wholesale vs. historical 3x ## Spirits - Brown-Forman: Goldman Sachs reinstates Sell, $24 PT; rejected Sazerac bid ($32/share or $15B reported); Pernod Ricard talks collapsed; stock -63% since 2021 - WSWA SipSource: spirits depletions improving marginally (-4.19% Q1'26 to -3.68% Q2'27); vodka outperforming; rum/Irish whiskey/brandy lagging - Pernod Ricard: Citi trims FY26 guidance to -3/-4%; Americas organic sales -9.4%; Jefferies models dividend rebasing - NABCA May: spirits 9L volume -1.7%, dollars -4.4%; cocktails/RTDs +21.8% volume; tequila -0.2% ## M&A / Distribution - RTD dealmaking: "seller's market" per Arlington Capital/JPMorgan (Molson Coors-Atomic Brands $257M, AB InBev-BeatBox $490M, Sazerac's BuzzBallz/Svedka/Western Son) - Kroger to acquire Giant Eagle for $1.65B (197 stores, $9B sales); Foran's first major deal - Columbia Distributing/RNDC: 850K case transfer (OR/WA) - Trinchero taps Reyes Beverage Group for TX/LA/OK/MD/VA/DC - Keg 1 Missouri acquires Fechtel Beverage (1M+ cases); KEG 1 network now 14 states/130M cases - Edrington exits American whiskey, sells 80% of Wyoming Whiskey to WW Partners ## Corporate/Leadership/Legal - Uncle Nearest: Fawn Weaver terminated by court-appointed receiver ahead of sale - Diageo closes Aviation American Gin's Portland flagship - Campari America faces wrongful termination/disability discrimination suit - Congo Brands (Prime Hydration/3D Energy) WARN notice: 28 layoffs, Louisville HQ, post-Alani Nu $1.8B sale to Celsius - Ste. Michelle Wine Estates closes Northstar facility, consolidates at Columbia Crest - Anchor Brewing faces union pressure from ILWU Local 6 - Brad Pitt Château Miraval suit against Yuri Shefler can proceed in CA court ## Regulatory/Legislative - CA AB 1585 ("American" wine labeling) pulled after heavy lobbying (Gallo, Constellation, Delicato, Wine Group, Southern Glazer's, Breakthru) - SPIRIT Act (HR 9407): $2.35/proof gallon FET credit for small distillers; ACSA-endorsed amid first-ever craft distillery count decline - Napa groundwater fees: $98.74/acre; SVB reports ~half of CA wineries unprofitable - SCOTUS to hear RiseandShine v. PepsiCo trademark case - FDA accepts MRTP application for 20 ZYN varieties; Fifth Circuit upholds menthol vape marketing block ## Consumer Sentiment - Conference Board Consumer Confidence: 91.2 (from 90.6); job "hard to get" sentiment highest since Jan 2021 - U. Michigan Sentiment: 49.5 (from 44.8), still ~30% below year-ago; inflation concern highest since Feb 2025 - YouGov: 36% drinking less alcohol vs. 5% drinking more; top reasons: desire (50%), health (35%), cost (20%) - Numerator July 4th survey: beer intent 72% (-2pts), spirits 43% (+7pts), wine 34% flat; $117/person avg spend, $22B nationwide; Walmart 56% traffic share - Beer Institute/Morning Consult: 95% of hosts plan to serve beer ## Retail - Costco: wine >50% of bev-alc sales, spirits 35-40%, beer 20% (inverted vs. typical retail); $6.5-7B global bev-alc sales - Amazon Prime Day: $26.4B spend (+9.3%); avg household spend -8% to $143.45 (Numerator) - Winn-Dixie converts 8 Harveys locations; new FL stores planned - Darden: LongHorn SSS +9.5%, tops $1B in sales; Olive Garden SSS +2.4% ## International Trade - UK spirits exports to US -60% value Q1 2026; UK whisky -27%, gin -24% - US spirits exports to UK +144.5% value, +202.2% volume ## Product Launches - Buffalo Trace "Prohibition Collection" Vol. 3: 5 historic brands revived, 375ml sets at $999.99 ## Corporate Outlook - Citi reiterates AB InBev Buy ahead of July 30 earnings; FY26E organic EBITDA guidance 4-8%, Citi models +5.9%; Capital Markets Day Sept 21-23

  6. Jun 26

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | June 26, 2026

    - **Big market question:** TD Cowen challenged the structural-decline narrative, forecasting U.S. supplier gross revenue growth of 1.3% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with volume stabilization in 2027. - **Current category pressure remains real:** IWSR reported total U.S. beverage alcohol volume down 5% last year; NielsenIQ showed recent total alcohol dollar sales down 4.1%. - **Beer was mixed:** Constellation Brands gained momentum behind Modelo and Corona, ABI improved with Michelob Ultra, Bud Light, and Budweiser, while Molson Coors remained pressured by Miller Lite and Coors Light softness plus aluminum cost headwinds. - **Diageo restructuring intensified:** CEO Dave Lewis’ cost-cutting reached North America, with Laura Merritt reportedly departing and Keara Funck taking over the U.S. division. Citi upgraded Diageo to Buy despite weak U.S. spirits trends. - **Whiskey is split:** Flavored whiskey, especially Jack Daniel’s Tennessee Blackberry, Crown Royal Blackberry, and Evan Williams Blackberry, is driving trial, while Brown-Forman, MGP Ingredients, and broader American whiskey remain under investor pressure. - **RTDs and prepared cocktails stayed hot:** Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, BuzzBallz, and High Noon highlighted the category’s continued momentum, even as some pioneers moderated. - **Distribution is consolidating fast:** RNDC’s breakup continued, Reyes expanded its footprint, Martignetti and Columbia picked up markets, Southern Glazer’s acquired Clare Rose, and M.S. Walker aligned with Reyes across 11 markets. - **FTC and Southern Glazer’s reached an agreement in principle:** The Robinson-Patman case alleged small retailers were charged up to 67% more than national chains including Costco, Walmart, and Total Wine. - **Wine remains challenged:** Off-premise, distributor depletion, DtC, export, inventory, grape supply, and profitability data all pointed to pressure, though ultra-premium Napa remained more resilient. - **Wine industry consolidation continued:** Treasury Wine Estates rationalized its portfolio around DAOU, Penfolds, and Matua; Abbot’s Passage closed; Vint is winding down; Goodwood Brewing filed for Chapter 7 liquidation. - **Hemp beverages got a major policy signal:** A White House letter endorsed Representative Andy Barr’s Lawful Hemp Protection Act or an extension of the November 12 hemp ban implementation. - **Innovation remained active:** Owl’s Brew launched Spiked Pop, Ben Weiss launched Crooked Pop, Karl Strauss gained traction with Hard Cherry Cola, Bravazzi crossed 100,000 cases, and Phusion launched THC-infused Nine Loko. - **Consumer behavior is fragmenting:** CivicScience showed overall drinking incidence rising to 68%, Gen Z planning to drink more, Gen X planning to scale back, and “dry-tripping” continuing to grow. - **Craft beer is deeper but narrower:** Brewers Association Harris Poll data showed craft drinkers are more engaged, but total reach is shrinking and craft trails wine, spirits, and imports in penetration. - **Retail and restaurants show caution:** Kroger grew sales and e-commerce, Amazon Prime Day started soft despite Adobe’s record sales forecast, and the National Restaurant Association projected fewer summer restaurant jobs. - **Non-alcoholic beverage strength continued:** Energy drinks and bottled water outperformed, with Monster gaining share, Red Bull preparing price increases, Celsius slowing, Coca-Cola growing, PepsiCo declining, and Keurig Dr Pepper rising. - **Key closing takeaway:** The U.S. beverage market is not uniformly declining. It is fragmenting, with growth shifting toward accessible innovation, RTDs, value-oriented brands, select beer winners, and occasion-led consumption.

  7. Jun 19

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | June 19, 2026

    * **Global Trade & Tariff Volatility:** A 100% U.S. tariff threat on French wine/Champagne looms over France's 3% Digital Services Tax. Concurrently, the American Whiskey Association is actively lobbying for access to India’s massive emerging consumer class. The interdependency of the global spirits trade was highlighted by John Swinney’s visit to Independent Stave Company's Kentucky Cooperage. * **Corporate Resets & Sweeping Restructuring:** Under the cost-cutting leadership of Sir Dave Lewis, Diageo begins deep cuts, executive shakeups (departures in North America, UK, Africa; hiring Marc Woodward), price cuts on flagship brands, and an aggressive pivot to canned RTDs. * **The World Cup Draft Surge:** The opening week of the FIFA World Cup drove historic draft and packaged beer numbers. Michelob Ultra took dominant draft gains, followed by Corona Extra, Modelo Especial, Pacifico, and Guinness. Local taprooms like KC Bier and Sam Adams reported massive volume jumps. * **Ready-to-Drink (RTD) Outperformance:** Spirits-based RTDs continue to lead off-premise sales, with ABI (Cutwater) showing stellar growth (+124.9% dollars). Brand surges from Stateside's Surfside and Boston Beer’s Sun Cruiser illustrate the segment's velocity. * **Major M&A & Retail Consolidations:** Spec’s Family Corp buys out Lee’s Discount Liquor in Las Vegas for its first out-of-state transaction. Berlin Packaging acquires O. Berk Company and BlueSky. Bronco Wine Company assumes national representation of McManis, LangeTwins, and Provenance via the purchase of Resurrection Brands. * **Agriculture & Wine Industry Strain:** California Lodi vine pull-outs have hit 10% in the last year, with families like Mohr-Fry Ranch pivoting to alternative crops. Washington State's wine grape crop hit its lowest production volume since 2011, causing Pacific Rim's Chapter 11 filing, while Ste. Michelle begins its quality pivot under Court Wyckoff. * **Demographic & Behavioral Shifts:** Morning Consult tracks GLP-1 weight-loss drug users shifting casual dining away from family programs to professional and group social gatherings, driving a physical restructuring of on-premise venues. * **Federal Regulatory Constraints:** The industry gears up for a potential November ban on hemp-derived cannabinoids, while a federal lawsuit from AALM challenges the DOJ's Schedule III reclassification of marijuana. Trip showcases CBD brand maturity, marching toward a $200 million revenue run rate.

  8. Jun 12

    Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | June 12, 2026

    **Key Themes This Week:** - US beverage alcohol market in structural multi-year decline; IWSR projects -18% servings by 2035 - Beer enters summer with negative momentum; Memorial Day disappointing across channels - World Cup represents industry's largest activation bet — Diageo makes history as first spirits sponsor - Wine industry contraction deepens: Treasury Wine Estates slashes portfolio from 76 to 50% YoY - **Gallo:** Closes West Turner Road crush facility in Lodi; fourth facility closure since 2025 - **Constellation Brands:** Only major brewer in positive territory; Pacifico +17.5% dollars; F1Q27 earnings June 30 - **Boston Beer:** Dollar sales -14.1% in L4W; fighting $175.5M Ardagh verdict - **Diageo:** First-ever World Cup spirits sponsor; NA revenue -9%, US spirits -15%; strategy update August 6 - **Molson Coors:** Losses accelerating; raising summer ad spend 60%; launching Coors 0.0% - **Moon Distributors:** Acquiring RNDC's Arkansas operations - **Lucas Bols USA:** Complete national distribution realignment away from RNDC to four-partner network - **DISCUS:** Robinson Brown IV (Brown-Forman) elected Chair; Joe Fortune (Mast-Jägermeister) Vice Chair - **Uncle Nearest:** Enters receivership; active litigation - **Luca Mariano Distillery:** Apogee 21 Holdings as sole bidder at $16.7M - **Sazerac:** Threatens legal action over NC ABC minimum pricing proposal - **Hightails (THC beverages):** National sales partnership with Spirited Insiders - **Fever-Tree:** US market share gains via Molson Coors partnership; first national US marketing campaign - **Johnson Brothers:** Expands Round Pond Estate distribution to 9 new states; acquires Lucas Bols Midwest markets - **Mulholland Distilling:** Names Classic Wine & Spirits as California distributor - **Smart Distributors (MO):** Strategic investment from Leslie Rudd Investment Company - **Trulieve Cannabis:** Corporate de-consolidation; medical entity pursuing NYSE listing **Data Points to Watch:** - Total US alcohol: $8.6B in L4W, -4.6% YoY dollars, -6.3% volume - Beer YTD: +0.3% dollars, -1.2% volume (MULO+C); L4W turned negative - RTDs: Only positive bev-alc category (+0.1% dollars in L4W) - May Food PPI: +2.4% YoY, accelerating; 2-year stack +6.2% - Beer-at-home CPI: +2.9% YoY in May (from +2.2% April) - TBA wholesaler inventories: -4.3% YoY but still 39% above 2019 levels - Microbrewery volume: -8.9% in 2025, lowest since 2014 - NA beer (domestic): +17.1% YTD; Michelob NA +95.2% - Energy drinks: +6.1% L2W; Monster +5.7%, Celsius/Alani combined share 16% - GLP-1 market: TD Cowen raises 2030 estimate to $150B, 26M US patients projected **Regulatory & Legal:** - Ohio files SCOTUS cert petition on wine retailer shipping (Block v. Canepa) — first state AG petition, circuit split acknowledged - Sazerac threatens legal action over NC ABC minimum spirits pricing - Boston Beer affiliate fights $175.5M Ardagh can supply verdict - Second Circuit vacates $1.3M Peju Province Winery trademark judgment - Garden Path Fermentation TTB vintage labeling challenge dismissed without prejudice - Oregon OLCC sting operations down 85% - NY One Fair Price Act (anti-AI pricing) passes legislature, awaits governor - Dueling health studies: government study finds risk at 1 drink/day vs. JGIM study finding no moderate drinking-cancer mortality link - Total Wine faces potential 20,000-applicant class action in Washington State

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About

Stay ahead of the trends shaping the world of wine, spirits, beer, and non-alcoholic drinks. Each episode delivers a quick, insightful look at the latest developments in the beverage industry—from distributor shake-ups and retail strategies to brand launches, consumer trends, and regulatory updates. Whether you’re a retailer, supplier, or industry enthusiast, Beverage Business Briefing keeps you informed and ready to make smarter decisions in today’s fast-changing marketplace.

Information

  • Creator
    Carlos DeOliveira
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    45
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 Carlos DeOliveira
  • Show Website
    Beverage Business Briefing