Pick Your Poison | TWM Tactical Edge Podcast – Episode #11 In this companion episode to The Petrodollar Trap, Raj Bhuyan, Managing Partner at Tactical Wealth Management, goes back a century to answer a bigger question: how did the U.S. dollar become the world’s reserve currency in the first place — and how fragile is that status today? The story starts with two collapses. In 1923 Germany, the Reichsbank’s money printer ran so hot that people burned savings for heat; by 1930 in Cleveland, Ohio, a homeowner was hiding $182,000 in cash inside his bathroom walls. One is hyperinflation, the other deflation, and neither is a scenario any investor should want. Raj walks through why a right-tail outcome can be worse than a left-tail one: German bank depositors lost everything despite 50%+ interest, the German stock market rose 20 trillion percent and still lost three-quarters of its purchasing power, and even gold — up 80 trillion percent — came with half a dozen 40%+ drawdowns along the way. From there, the episode traces the dollar’s rise: the 1929–32 Dow crash of 89% and the 800% return needed to recover, the bank runs that wiped out a third of U.S. banks, a 31% contraction in money supply, and why the classical definition of inflation and deflation is about the quantity of money, not prices. Raj covers Executive Order 6102 and the gold confiscation of 1933, the Gold Reserve Act’s devaluation from $20 to $35, the end of the 40% gold backing, the U.S. accumulating over 20,000 tons of gold by 1944, and the Bretton Woods agreement that officially displaced Britain. Then the Triffin dilemma plays out in real time — the French “exorbitant privilege” critique, 2,600 tons repatriated by frigate, a British cable for 3,000 tons, and Nixon’s Camp David meeting in August 1971 that closed the gold window. Before 1971, U.S. debt grew at 4.5% a year; since then, 8%. The episode closes with the pillars of reserve status — the dollar’s 1920s–30s track record, Bretton Woods, and the petrodollar — and why two of them look shaky: Saudi Arabia’s shipping lanes and infrastructure are not feeling protected, and the bond market faces $40 trillion in official debt, $70 trillion including state and corporate debt, and long-end rates at two-decade highs. (And that $182,000 in the walls? Worth about $4 million in today’s dollars — versus $38 million in gold, $41 million in silver, or $51 million in the Dow.) Episode 12 will cover the investment implications if these scenarios continue to play out. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 – Noise vs. signal, the $100B+ “cruise ship” platforms & paying attention to the denominator 03:10 – Time machine to 1923–1930: burning cash in Germany, hiding $182,000 in a Cleveland wall 04:39 – Welcome & disclosures 06:35 – Pick Your Poison: left-tail vs. right-tail outcomes & why right tails can be worse 08:17 – Weimar hyperinflation: deposits, stocks, mining shares & gold’s 80 trillion percent ride 10:38 – The Great Depression: 10-to-1 leverage, the 89% Dow decline, bank runs & hoarding 12:33 – What inflation and deflation actually mean: the quantity theory of money 14:17 – Executive Order 6102, the Gold Reserve Act & the end of gold backing 15:48 – 20,000 tons of gold & Bretton Woods: the dollar displaces the pound 17:28 – Triffin’s warning, de Gaulle’s frigates & the August 1971 gold window closure 19:52 – Before and after 1971: debt growth, inflation & what $182,000 would be worth today 21:01 – The pillars of reserve status & which ones look shaky: Saudi Arabia and the bond market Learn more or get in touch: https://tacticalwm.com Raj Bhuyan is a managing partner of Tactical Wealth Management. Advisory services offered through NewEdge Advisors, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where NewEdge Advisors, LLC, doing business as Tactical Wealth Management, and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure and no advice may be rendered by NewEdge Advisors, LLC unless a client service agreement is in place. Third-party posts found on this profile do not reflect the views of NewEdge Advisors, LLC and have not been reviewed by NewEdge Advisors, LLC as to accuracy or completeness. #tacticaledgepodcast , #tacticalwealthmanagement , #riskmanagement , #investingstrategies2026 , #investing, #smartbeta, #smartalpha, #reservecurrency, #petrodollar, #hyperinflation, #deflation, #goldstandard, #brettonwoods
