Blain's Morning Porridge

Bill Blain
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Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.

  1. 13h ago

    Markets, Politics and Paying for the Narrative

    Blain’s Morning Porridge Sept 17th, 2026 “The 1% of Americans funding politics get to chose how the rest will live.” Kevin Warsh established a degree of credibility for the Fed and himself yesterday by hiking rates. The Fed is focused on fighting inflation – the best long-term option, but a short-term painful outcome for American voters. The coming electoral cycles in the USA, Europe and the UK will all highlight the power of money that’s driving the narrative. Big money from Crypto and Tech is driving political decisions. The electorate will suffer the consequences of policies set to elicit donations rather than foster long-term growth and economic security.  Key Takeaways: No need to worry about Kevin Warsh or the Fed – the unanimous 25bp hike confirms independence and price stability is the goal.Cutting inflation is an economic imperative, but politically painful – thus Trump’s efforts to pin the blame for higher rates on a politically motived board of Democrat appointees.To avoid irreparable damage at the Mid-Terms Trump is trying to sell critical swing voters hope in the form of electoral bribes, jam tomorrow, while blaming the “other-side”. His calls are economically incoherent but designed to win votes by showing the other side is worse.To get his narrative across means financing massive spend on advertising, new media, socials, influencers and podcasts.Increasingly fake news and disinformation is roiling the narrative – raising fears foreign interests may be a play, favouring Trump because of the damage he is doing to perceptions of the USA abroad.America’s billionaires are bought into it – massively favouring Trump with the political donations to fund the media narrative. They are making payments to retain influence in Trump’s court, and to reap regulatory favours for Tech and Crypto.Reform in the UK shows clearly how it works: Crypto interests have made Reform the wealthiest political party in UK history – in return Reform policy will directly benefit Crypto interests, including lower taxes. Kevin Warsh established his bona fides as an Inflation Hawk yesterday. He ain’t the Sock Puppet Elizabeth Warren said he would be. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  2. 1d ago

    Bond fears, and why slowing UK QT makes sense

    Blain’s Morning Porridge 16th, Sept 2026 “Gilts are dull, boring and predicable, but utterly terrify markets when they move a fraction of basis point.” Global Bond yields remain… fragile. As the US breaches 5% 10-year yields, the UK is now slowing QT which should be market positive. It’s high time the Bank of England and the UK Treasury (which famously pretend the other doesn’t exist) cooperate on liability management to address the UK’s debt pile – which is actually in much better shape than the right-wing press would have you believe. An Apology: Yesterday we had a IOS problem. “Idiot on Seat” – I forgot to switch on the microphone recording the Morning Porridge podcast. I only found out on the train! Key Takeaways: The global bond selloff hit a worrying tidemark yesterday as the US 10-year Treasury hit 5%. Shock, horror… mass panic? Nope – Normalisation.The Bank of England spotted the kerfuffle in bonds – and are doing the right thing by slowing QT.The key issue for bond markets is how QT impacts demand/supply pricing. At current rates QT was about 22% of the size of new UK debt issuance. That’s had a significant negative impact in terms of the higher yields on Gilts.The UK’s debt position isn’t as bad as other nations – its’ longer debt profile means less to refinance each year. Cutting competing supply will ease prices further.Slowing QT will not create a sudden bull market, but will ease the pressure from energy costs, slowing trade, rising inflation, conflict risks and unsustainable government deficits. (It might even shut the Torygraph up for a while…)The UK’s Treasury and The Bank should cooperate to abandon QT completely and embrace liability management of the UK’s debt pile.Zonk Theory – replacing the Bank’s Portfolio with a Zero-Coupon Perpetual “Zonk” could reduce the UK’s outstanding debt, avoid crystalised losses from QT and further lower debt costs… As predicted, US 10-year Treasury yields broke through 5% last night. I am intrigued to see who Scotty Bessent blames it on. Zelensky? The Mekon? Meanwhile, the Bank of England is about to slow its Quantitative Tightening programme. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  3. 2d ago

    What chance of European Growth?

    Blain’s Morning Porridge September 15th, 2026 “Europe was created by history. America is a product of philosophy.” Europe is a diverse, culturally rich and fascinating continent but increasingly looks an economic basket case facing economic and demographic decline. Its suffering economic PTSD after successive shocks in Banking, Sovereign Debt and now Energy. Now it’s being squeezed between an unreliable USA and China’s proxy, Russia. Maybe that’s the challenge it needs? LINK TO PODCAST Key Takeaways The Geopolitical fragmentation of the Western Alliance raises serious challenges for Europe.Europe should be economically significant, but its history and political fragmentation has held it back.It is scarred by economic crises – 2008, the Sovereign Debt Crisis, the Ukraine Oil Shock, and now the post-Nato era challenge to defence.The key economic weakness is the lack of depth to its capital markets. There is no single market to enable European businesses to thrive.Effective capital markets will require Unity (and probably the integration of the UK).Europe is not too small, poor or unskilled, but it lacks an effective capital market and political unity. In an increasingly fraxious world it must unify or be picked off one by one.We live in a very changed World. Europe is struggling with scale, growth and productivity. The future looks likely to be American or Chinese. Neither of them looks particularly attractive options from this side of the Pond. Yoorp will likely be left behind. Unless… something was to happen to galvanise European unity and growth. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  4. 3d ago

    AI, Horses, Stable Doors… oh dear. 

    Blain’s Morning Porridge – 14th, Sept 2026 “Scary thought no 1 – AI was watching as I wrote this, taken note, and made the appropriate responses.” There is a rising kerfuffle around the safety of AI. There are good reasons to be fearful. The leading AI Tech Lords now acknowledge there are serious dangers – but AI is now a strategic resource! Thus, there are games of national and company self-interest, and geopolitics all at play in terms of how to harness it. What it all means for markets is still unclear – but some reassessment of the risks should be considered. The horses are running and the stable door is wide open.  Key Takeaways: The AI Tech Lords now acknowledge serious risks from the breakneck rollout of AI, calling for guardrails, safeguards and a slower pace of development.They may already be too late – there are warning signs AI is teaching itself, and learning how to “swarm” – with massive implications for the digital web economy.Regulation will be too slow.AI is now a strategic resource – and will need limits in the same way as nuclear weapons.A China/US AI Arms Race is probably inevitable.Markets have to reassess what a slowdown or oversight (and maybe regulation), plus greater safety costs means for AI revenues. How afraid should we be? The Pandora’s Box of the AI race was flung open a while ago…

  5. 6d ago

    The King is Mad – step forward the New King!

    Blain’s Morning Comment 9/11 2026 “The sleeper must awaken…” Keep your eyes on JD Vance. He is headed for a coronation. What will that mean for America and global markets? He’s not stupid, but many suspect hes is not his own man – he owes his successes to billionaire Mega-mind Peter Theil. Vance will lead the attack on the Progressive, Weirdo, Democratic Socialists, but even if he wins… what kind of market and economy might he inherit?  Key Takeaways: JD Vance is stepping to the fore as Trump’s likely successor. He’s doing a competent job sorting through the mess that is Trump’s war on Iran.There are questions around how much he is still influenced by Peter Theil and how a Vance presidency may serve the “Nerd” Billionaire faction.We are passed Peak Trump – that will be confirmed in November. Step forward the new man.Vance will campaign around the stability of conservative Republican political competency vs the danger of radical progressive Democrat socialists, who have a branding problem and no clear leader.Whatever happens, the scale of US debt and how to refinance it will be the legacy issue for whoever wins in 2028.The consequences of years of financial repression, capital markets abundance, cheap liquidity and now de-dollarisation, and a crisis in refinancing debt could trigger higher inflation and economic crisis. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  6. Sep 10

    AI is going to kill us all. Great. Let’s go Sailing instead. 

    Blain’s Morning Porridge 10th, Sept 2026 “So long and thanks for all the fish... Relax and let the world dissolve around you…” If there is a 10% chance AI is going to kill us all, then that’s probably bad news for bond markets. There are a lots of things that threaten us, but fortunately most of them are quite unlikely. A 1 in 10 chance we’re all toast is not. Global markets will probably choose to look the other way, but how would your own investment decisions change if you knew the Terminator is about to knock on the door? Key Takeaways A 10% extinction risk is the Economic Elephant in the Room – but markets will probably choose not to see it.What is the right response to the threat? Go spend it while you still can!AI risks are probably more significant than any natural threat – including the Zombie apocalypse and JD Vance’s “end of times”.A 10% AI risk may be far higher than it sounds – it’s not a binary Terminator moment, but will be an ongoing process. If it’s a 10% chance of AI Quietus over 5 years, then in 50 years time there is only a 35% probability we are still around!AI Alignment is nonsense – we are too fickle, emotional and destructive to predict or model.You should read more Sci-Fi. Isaac Asimov predicted this would happen 85 years ago, wrote the laws of Robotics and a charming little story about how AI finds religion! Oh dear. Not much point worrying about the 30-year Treasury bond then? If there is a 10% chance that AI is going to destroy humanity... Well, what’s the point… Time to go spend it all. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  7. Sep 9

    25 years later what did 9/11 do to America?

    Blain’s Morning Porridge 9th, Sept 2026 “This is who we are.” Friday is the 25th anniversary of 9/11. It was the worst of days. It changed the World forever. How has it changed America and what are the risks it raises for the future? America is a great and powerful nation – but is going through a painful period. What did Osama Bin Laden’s carefully calculated terror do to America’s future? The scars run deep. Who won? Key Takeaways 9/11 was an asymmetric outrage designed to shock and trigger an over-reaction – yet America swiftly renewed itself, defining itself by its unity, resilience and determination.The War on Terror defined the US for the early part of this millennium, and has cost trillions – with the negatives of rising debt and ongoing regional instability. It became a focus for growing resentment of the USA.US public opinion has shifted against “foreign entanglements”, other nations wars, and become more inward looking. The initial unity soured – today the USA is more politically polarised than ever before.What did the War on Terror achieve? Afghanistan is back in Taliban hands, Iraq is a basket case, ISIS Islamic radicalism still festers in the sands, and the War on Iran is going nowhere.Decades of fruitless war and security operations have left the USA stretched, while China was able to build economic infrastructure, grow its economy and now challenge for hegemonic power.There is a danger an overstretched America suffers a strategic setback of the scale of the Tet Offensive of 1968 during the Vietnam war which could trigger a further distancing of the USA from global alliances. Friday will be the 25th Anniversary of 9/11. 9/11 remains the most viscerally shocking event of our lifetimes. Any of us old enough know exactly where we were as it happened. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

  8. Sep 8

    Inflation, Rates and Economic History provide clues on the Outlook

    Blain’s Morning Porridge 8th Sept, 2026 “If I was trying to get to there, I would not be starting from here.” The coming year is likely to be shaped by higher inflation from energy and El Nino, rising interest rates, “policy-mistake” risks, and revaluation risks as capital markets adapt to rate normalisation. Looming over it all be political noise. Understanding where we are, how we got here and what happens next will be critical.  Key Takeaways: Inflation is likely to remain “elevated” through 2027 – leading to multiple market consequences and revaluation threat.Interest rates will likely stay on a rising path – with elevated “policy-mistake” risk in the UK as inflation and slowing growth collide.The UK’s economic problems are the consequences of long-term economic history and accumulated economic weaknesses resulting from successive government policies.The USA is economically robust but faces threats from Chinese competition in it core hi-value tech markets and the potential of hegemonic decline.Rising US rates may weaken the capital markets that have driven US success, but are more likely to trigger a fundamental reassessment of value – corrective.Trying to sort out broken economies and fractured politics will prove difficult – it may be time to give Neo-Keynesian fiscal polies and investment a try… why not? Nothing else is working. The trajectory of US and UK interest rates is not looking good. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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About

Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.

Information

  • Creator
    Bill Blain
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    175
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Bill Blain
  • Show Website
    Blain's Morning Porridge

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