Blain's Morning Porridge

Bill Blain
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Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.

  1. 22H AGO

    Defence Spending, Resilience and Growth

    Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 18th, 2026 – Defence Spending, Resilience and Growth “To save the village it was necessary to destroy it.” The Russians have captured the FT, apparently! The headline that Gilts are about to crash because the Government will borrow more to increase defence spending is Pravda 101. The reality is Gilts should rally on increasing the strategic deterrence that defence spending will create. If you wish for peace, be prepared for war. Strategic Deterrence is the most valuable form of infrastructure a nation can possess. There is a worrying story in the FT this morning – “Gilt investors warn about “ruse” to fund higher UK defence spending.” It goes on to describe a potential backlash and “self-defeating” rise in borrowing costs if the Government tries to spend more on defence by issuing more debt. I had to check the byline – has the Pink-Un been bought by one of Putin’s oligarchs? The story caught my interest for a number of reasons. I guess the journalists needed a story to counter UK Premier Sir Keir Starmer saying something sensible. Yesterday, he said he’s going to move faster to increase defence spending – wow, I’ve always believed Starmer means well, so it’s great to see him do something right. (But, as a chum said last night; give him a few months to fret about how to increase defence spending to 3% by 2029 without upsetting the bond market and Labour’s left-wing, and spending might even decline!) The FT article cites a “leading investor” saying “I’m not the sure the bond market would like it.” Another said the market would be “sceptical about a carve-out”. Beats me how these guys are sitting in senior investment management roles – surely, they realise their investments in Gilts and the UK are likely to be made more secure by spending that discourages the Russians (or whomever else) attacking us? Perhaps not….  (I’ll come back to that below.) A few weeks ago, one of my chums in the Labour Party let slip the Government’s 10-year Defence Investment Plan is being delayed in the hope of peace in Ukraine. The thinking is simple; if Trump can force a “ceasefire”, then the immediate need for rearmament diminishes, putting less pressure on Treasury to find money immediately for guns, and giving Starmer some funds to placate the left-wingers clamouring for more on the butter of welfare spending! One of the most basic duties of any state is defence. It’s a complex two-part problem that goes beyond the guns or butter paradox: The first is paying for defence – which the UK is currently failing. Not because we don’t spend enough, but because we spend it badly!The second issue is making sure the nation is prepared to defend itself by being willing to fight. That’s more nuanced.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

    14 min

  2. 1D AGO

    Munich, AI and The Year of the Fire Horse.

    Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 17th, 2026: Munich, AI and The Year of the Fire Horse. “We must build our hard power, for that is the currency of the age.” The future will be set not just by the defence and deterrence discussions last weekend in Munich, but by how global markets react to competition. New Chinese AI drops from DeepSeek and Qwen may challenge US hyperscalers and challenge expectations of global demand and markets.   Happy Chinese Lunar New Year. Good luck and good fortune to all readers of the Porridge in The Year of the Fire Horse. History tells us things can get fruity in Fire Horse years – which occur every 60 years on the Chinese Zodiac. That’s a significant measure of time: a single 60-year Kondratieff long-term economic cycle encompasses the incredible economic change, tech evolution and growth we’ve seen since the 1960s. Periods of hegemonic challenge (which raise substantial conflict risks) typically occur every 100-120 years – the 2K cycle - which is pretty much where the timeline also is today as the USA and China butt against each other. China has become the most significant challenge to the USA’s era as the undisputed global hegemon and economic superpower. It happens at a time of increased political instability as Western economies struggle with inequalities and the rise of populism (including the challenges of Donald Trump’s second presidency), the consequence of underinvestment in deterrence, but also at a time of acute social change and external challenges (climate change, migration, et al), and all during a time when competition in global markets is reaching fever pitch. Hegemonic change doesn’t have to happen in terms of war and conflict but also occurs when previously dominant powers see their economic position challenged, and their industrial/business base surpassed. Tired economies define most end of empire scenarios – and explains why Great Britain gradually faded away after the First World War. Put all these random bits together; political ineffectiveness and polarisation, rising social grievances and tension arounds jobs, housing, and inequality (of income, opportunity and justice),  and the dramatic competitive technology and economic shifts (which may increase social division by dispensing with jobs) that are occurring. Then sprinkle the risks of war on top of that… and it’s a not a pretty world we live in. Of course, it hasn’t helped that Trump’s vision for America has necessarily called for a reduction in the costs of its global responsibilities – hence the bust-up with Europe. It could have been done better and without the angst. What’s done is done…   You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

    14 min

  3. 2D AGO

    Sliding, Jambos and Rugby, Sports that matter

    Blain’s Very Late Morning Porridge Feb 16th 2026 – Sliding, Jambos and Rugby, Sports that matter “He’s kicked that one so high it’s come down with a touch of frost on it..” The world may be going to hell in a handbasket, and tomorrow is the start of the Year of the Fire-Horse (the most volatile of the 60-year Chinese zodiac cycle) but what a fantastic weekend of sports we just had. It’s all positive stuff… Let’s enjoy it while we can. Apologies for the very late Morning Porridge this morning after a very early flight back from Edinburgh. Tomorrow there will be a full breakdown on the market implications of ‘who-said-what-but-meant-that” at the Munich Security Conference and what’s afoot in AI stocks, but this morning… let’s enjoy the good things in life and talk about sports, their influence and importance, whether it be in Olympic gold in Skeleton, Football, or Scotland’s magnificent win on Saturday in the 6 Nations Rugby at Murrayfield. Sports matter – not just in terms of the potential opportunities to monetise sporting success (of which there are many), but also in terms of concepts such as soft power and belief, and how that can influence sentiment and growth. After Saturday’s win I was a one-man economic boom-time in Edinburgh’s hostelries on Saturday. Might oak-trees stem from little acorns, and small sporting successes can make small nations mightier yet.

    10 min

  4. FEB 11

    The Munich Security Conference and Global Threats 

    Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 11th, 2026 – The Munich Conference and Global Threats  “What do you worry about?” … “Events, dear boy, events.” There are times when the course of history takes on a momentum of its own, most often in periods of conflict around hegemonic change – as exist today. This year’s Munich Security Conference will address stressed and fractured global alliances – while markets should be figuring out how conflict risks have risen and potential outcomes worsened.  Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference (which opens later this week) is a former German Ambassador to the USA. He doesn’t pull any punches in its 2026 report; “Under Destruction”. (Use the link to read it – it’s blunt, to-the-point and highly informative.)   The report defines how “wrecking-ball politics” have favoured the destruction of current institutions and alliances, and trampled opportunities for reform. It pulls no punches blaming Donald Trump’s new America for the destabilisation of long-term alliances. In many ways it’s a response to JD Vance’s arrogance at last year’s conference where he slammed Europe as anti-democratic while failing to call out Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.   In the space of just over a year the World has utterly changed. Confidence in NATO, the transatlantic economy, and global order have been overturned. Apologists for Trump – and there will be plenty of wealthy American businessmen, financiers and technologists in attendance who have nailed their colours to his mast – will say Trump has achieved great things by forcing Europe to take responsibility for its own defence, and rumours of the death of the alliance are over exaggerated. They are not. These apologists have less to say about the long-term consequences for the global economy and markets from Trump’s disregard for the rules of law, his threats to allies, his autocratic bent and his appeasement of Putin. In 12 months, he has destroyed (I was going to write undermined but why pull punches) the previous faith and confidence Europe had in America. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

    11 min

  5. FEB 10

    Bond Market Alarm Bells Sounding

    Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 10th, 2026 – Bond Market Alarm Bells Sounding “Feche le vache..” Did someone say Century Bond? What’s not to like about the bond market? Rates are going to fall! Everyone wants to buy credit (at historically tight spreads) and the biggest most successful firms on the planet are paying 70 cents over Treasuries for your money! What could possibly go wrong?  100-year Sterling bonds from Google? Wow. That’s…. interesting. (Ding, Ding, Ding…. Bond market alarms going off very loudly in my head.) What do the buyers of that Century bond know that we don’t? There are so many reasons not to buy a corporate Century bond – but clearly there is demand for them. I’ll come back to 100-year bonds below, but the succession of massive public (and private) AI Hyperscale debt deals to fund the datacentre build out has had my bond spidey-senses on edge for some time now. Google’s century bonds y’day sent them into overdrive. The sheer volume of debt being raised for AI is off the historical scale. There are estimates of $700-900 bln of funding to be raised by the Hyperscalers this year. Google raised $20 bln of its announced $185 bln 2026 funding ask yesterday. Oracle attracted a $130 bln order book for a recent $25 bln deal – despite many market analysts fearful of its weak financials, over-stretched debt profile, and reliance on OpenAI being able to pay the leases on its compute. Amazon and Microsoft are in the market funding as much as they can. Some say $3 trillion will be raised over 5 years. It’s extraordinary, but apparently, it’s not a problem because these are some of America’s largest and most successful companies – what can possibly go wrong? (Why did Enron, WorldCom, WaMu and the big 3 Autos just flash through my memory?) Recently I’ve written about the potential of a Corporate Bond Burp – not necessarily a complete credit meltdown, but a market that’s got ahead of itself that’s about to suffer chronic indigestion. The “Burp” is the warning it’s all about to happen – that the underlying assumptions behind a trade or a wider rally were mis-founded. Reasons for suspecting a Bond-Burp is imminent include the circularity arguments around AI firms funding and backing each other through datacentre leases and compute, the historically tight credit spreads in the corporate markets, and multiple questions about what is supporting what in the complex debt ecosystem. Should I be worried?

    13 min

  6. FEB 9

    The Conflabulation that is Bitcoin finally dies in a pool of disinterest.

    Blain’s Morning Porridge Part 2 Feb 9th, 2026 – The Conflabulation that is Bitcoin finally dies in a pool of disinterest. “Rat Poison Squared” Well, it was interesting while it lasted. Bitcoin has given me plenty to write about these last 15 years. Up, down, up, down, and shake it all about. This tumble feels different. No one is trying to seriously defend it. The walls are down and Bitcoin may be about to vanish in a puff of logic… or will it?  Once you have them, Cockroaches are extremely difficult to exterminate. It’s a special day indeed… 2 Morning Porridges. That’s unusual. I’ve been meaning to write about the collapsing Bitcoin conflabulation for days, but important stuff has been happening. History is littered with sudden collapses. Seemingly invulnerable fortresses suddenly fall to a gaggle of rag-tag guerillas, empires tumble overnight, and dictators are omnipotent one moment and dead in a ditch the next. It might be the same for Bitcoin. It feels like the wind has completely gone from its sails. “So apart from that Cathy, how’s your wallet?” Just over a year ago… it felt very different. November 4th, 2024, was a bad day for my personal wealth. Having faith in America, I’d convinced myself Kamela Harris could win the US presidency – despite her obvious limitations. I was in Washington, and went into the election with large, levered shorts on Tesla and Bitcoin, expecting both to tumble when Trump lost. I was wrong and both rallied spectacularly. My positions were both wiped out. Trump had promised us the future was Crypto and he would make it so… I knew the risk and shrugged. You win some, you lose some. But…. what goes around, comes around. This morning the world has already forgotten its shocked bewilderment that Trump posted Obama as a monkey on Truth-Social last week. Someone else will take the blame. There will be little in the way of a reckoning or punishment. He has turned insult and grift into an art form. And he cares little for crypto – made him rich but who cares? Last week we were reading about Abu Dhabi quietly buying 49% of Trump’s crypto venture, and we shrugged. Trump ain’t daft – he’s spread the risks of his efforts to cryptonise the US economy to his own personal benefit. Today, the world feels distinctly meh about BTC.  I feel a bit like a Canadian seal-clubber as I write about Bitcoin … these sad-eyed millennials and GenZs wondering why they aren’t rich… but Trump is? I almost feel sorry for them as I swing the club, telling them; “you’ve naebody to blame but yerself.” Thwack!

    12 min

  7. FEB 9

    Fire Horses, UK Bond Risk, Conflict Risk, and Emperor’s New Clothes Risk!

    Blain’s Morning Porridge, Part 1 Feb 9th, 2026 – Fire Horses, UK Bond Risk, Conflict Risk, and Emperor’s New Clothes Risk! “Knuckles to Buckles” The threat board is looking crowded this morning. From UK political risk, escalating conflict risks, a possible credit burp and what happens next in unsustainable narratives – who knows what further No-See-Ums lurk in the background. Yet markets party on. What can possibly go wrong…..? This is Part One of the Morning Porridge – there will be a later mid-morning comment on Bitcoin to follow (if I get time to finish it.) You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

    20 min

  8. FEB 5

    Navigating the stormy seas of Tech

    Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 5th, 2026 – Navigating the stormy seas of Tech “The worst thing you can do is nothing.” Where are the Tech markets and AI heading? Are we due a meltdown or melt-up? Will the bubble bust, or do the current ructions reflect growing uncertainty on which directions upside lies? There is plenty to consider when trying to predict where AI and Tech eventually go. What we do know is AI will change the world, and technology is constantly evolving. To play markets, we need to take a view. Doing nothing is not an option. It’s been a funny old market in tech these last few days – as volatile as broken glass is sharp, as unpredictable as Brownian Motion in a teacup. Strip away the noise and fear around the potential quietus for Oracle on its unsustainable debt burden, how few chips Nvidia might now sell, how much infrastructure OpenAI may never build, or how far down the wrong roads Microsoft has travelled, or how Google will own us all, and try figure out exactly how much the AI revolution will change the world. Because it will. There are broadly three things to think about:

    11 min
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About

Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.

Information

  • Creator
    Bill Blain
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    64
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Bill Blain
  • Show Website
    Blain's Morning Porridge

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