The Dairy Cafe

Vesper
  • 0.0 (0)
  • News
  • Updated Biweekly

The Dairy Café is your bi-weekly update on the global dairy market. Hosted by Vesper's Market Analyst Jasper Endlich and co-hosts Feiko Keilholz and Seb Laurenceau, each episode dives into the latest price trends and developments across key dairy categories, including cheeses, liquids, wheys, and powders, all powdered by Vesper’s commodity data. Whether you’re buying, selling, trading, or just tracking the market, we’re here to keep you informed. *This podcast is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want the full picture with live charts and data? Sign up free at vespertool.com/webinars.

  1. Oct 12

    Oct. 8, 2026 - Butter and SMP futures: what to know before launch

    Euronext launches butter and SMP futures and options on 19 October, cash settled against the Vesper Price Index. In this Dairy Cafe, Augustin Firino Martell of Euronext joins Jasper Endlich and Sebastiaan Laurenceau to talk through what is launching and why it matters.Augustin explains why Euronext built the contracts: dairy players asked for a reliable hedging tool, and most of the companies Euronext interviewed named the VPI as a fair representation of the cash market. He covers the listing on MATIF, the liquidity providers quoting the next six maturities at €150/mt spreads for butter and €75/mt for SMP, and the fee holiday on trading and clearing until the end of January.Jasper explains how Vesper made the VPI compliant with the EU Benchmark Regulation, which prices qualify and how the benchmark is published every Wednesday. The episode closes on what the launch means for companies that trade futures and for those that don't, and on how the VPI compares with EEX's PAN-EU butter index.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.

  2. Sep 11

    Sep. 10, 2026 - Milk and milk powders - how tight is Q4 really?

    In New Zealand, whole milk powder is now cheaper than skim milk powder, for the first time in almost four and a half years. Buy the protein and the fat comes free.Vesper's dairy analyst Jasper Endlich is joined by Feiko Keilholz and Sebastiaan Laurenceau to work through milk and milk powders, the product group that has caught people out this year. Skim milk powder was near EUR 2,000 per metric ton in January and is above EUR 3,000 now, up between 35% and 60% on the year, and the supply side does not obviously justify it. US non-fat dry milk production was up 26.56% year on year in July, but against two poor years, and milk powder output is in structural decline over a longer period.Demand is doing most of the work. China holds relatively low skim stocks for this time of year and has been buying significantly more than usual, which also showed up at the recent GDT events. Europe and New Zealand have picked up the export volume the US no longer has. And buyers who only need protein have switched out of feed-quality whey concentrate into skim, because WPC80 at EUR 27,000 per metric ton and MPC closing on EUR 15,000 per metric ton are too expensive by comparison. The group also reads the backwardated futures curve, which says the market does not expect this to stay as tight as it is today.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.

  3. Aug 31

    Aug. 27, 2026 - What’s next for dairy proteins? WPC, MPC, and SMP/NFDM

    Western Europe's WPC80 benchmark barely moved this week, but underneath it lower priced offers out of the US and Eastern Europe are working into Western Europe and Asia.Vesper's dairy analyst Jasper Endlich is joined by Feiko Keilholz and Sebastiaan Laurenceau to work through the whole board. Butter stays weak on global oversupply and record US production. European SMP has passed 3,000 EUR per metric ton, pulled by a shortage in the US, tighter skim milk concentrate in Europe, and demand returning from China and Southeast Asia.On proteins, reformulation has moved from theory to the label. MPC85 has a very similar protein structure at close to half the WPC80 price, and blends that used to read "whey protein" increasingly read "whey and milk protein". The group also asks whether GLP-1 adoption beyond the US keeps protein demand structurally higher, and what the new Canada and US tariffs mean for protein and butterfat.This episode is part of our biweekly webinar series. Want timely market intelligence and the opportunity to ask questions live?Register for free and watch more webinars at vespertool.com/webinars.

  4. Aug 13

    Aug. 13, 2026 – The milk fundamentals: What the EU, US & New Zealand are telling us

    In this Vesper Dairy Cafe episode, the hosts review dairy market moves and then focus on fundamentals shaping milk supply across Europe, the US, and New Zealand. They note midsummer volatility driven by weather, with tight liquid markets pushing skim milk powder (SMP) higher amid strong Asian demand and strong absorption of New Zealand GDT volumes, while butter continues trending down due to heavy stocks and only moderate demand; cheese is mostly sideways. Whey prices have stabilized but with a wide range, and the team expects September Q4 negotiations to clarify direction; sweet whey is supported by limited liquid whey/concentrate availability and cost floors. In Europe, milk prices remain above break-even and cow numbers are broadly stable, suggesting H2 output may land near 2025 levels once heat effects fade. In the US, healthy margins, rapidly rising herd size, and increasing milkfat underpin continued production growth. New Zealand’s outlook is supported by healthy Fonterra pricing and currently average pasture conditions, with limited expected El Niño impact so far.

  5. Jul 30

    Jul. 30, 2026 - Reading the cheese market: Weather, whey and the tools to track it

    The hosts explain doing two Dairy Cafe sessions in a row due to holiday scheduling and introduce a revamped “home feed” that consolidates key market prices (e.g., Gouda), reports, forecasts, and bull/bear drivers with links to sources. They note global skim milk powder prices across Oceania, Europe, and the US have converged, increasing competition. The discussion focuses on cheese: after mid-June softness, European heat waves reduced milk output, made sellers hesitant to sell forward, and helped lift mozzarella, Gouda, and cheddar prices. They argue cheese has become the preferred milk outlet because cheese-plus-whey (even sweet whey powder, potentially more with WPC) materially improves milk valorization versus SMP/butter, driving capacity expansions in Europe and the US. However, production growth outpaces consumption, intensifying export competition (especially cheddar and mozzarella) and making FX (EUR/USD) more influential. They expect fewer US dairy products flowing into Europe due to tighter US supply, discuss UK milk surplus pressuring cheddar premiums, and flag unexplained exchange whey powder index weakness; they plan to add WPC80 and MPC streams to their valorization model.

  6. Jul 23

    Jul 23, 2026 - Heat, holidays and H2: reading the dairy market

    In this Dairy Cafe webinar, the hosts discuss how European heat waves reduced milk output temporarily, pushing spot milk above FrieslandCampina’s payout price and driving higher prices and volatility in butter, cream, skim milk concentrate, and cheese, with large spreads between fresh and frozen butter and low futures liquidity. French weekly milk output data is cited as showing rapid recovery after weather events, though several weeks of lost milk adds upward risk versus earlier expectations. Cheese, including mozzarella, rose sharply as sellers became reluctant to offer forward volumes. Whey protein prices have surged but recently flattened as buyers reformulate toward alternatives like milk protein concentrate/caseins; MPC itself is tightening. They also note possible 50% US tariffs on Canadian goods and examine US-Canada dairy trade flows, highlighting potential risk to protein imports if dairy is included, and they mention dashboard customization updates.

  7. Jul 2

    Jul 2, 2026 - WPC80/WPI Pricing, Demand Shifts, MPC Substitution & Supply Outlook

    Dairy Cafe: Protein Markets Update — WPC80/WPI Pricing, Demand Shifts, MPC Substitution & Supply Outlook (with Joshua White) In this episode of Vesper’s Dairy Cafe, the hosts are joined by Josh White to discuss dairy protein markets, focusing on WPC80 and WPI pricing, recent signs of more offers, and whether buyer activity is slowing due to seasonality, inventory coverage, or price resistance. They cover the US heat wave’s likely temporary impact on milk production, the unusually wide price ranges across suppliers, and the compressed spread between WPI and WPC80. The conversation addresses whether rising commodity costs are being passed to consumers, continued demand growth across grocery aisles beyond sports nutrition, and how GLP-1 acts as a catalyst within a broader global health trend. They also discuss increased interest in MPCs as substitutes, hedging advantages in milk proteins, limited near-term supply expansion tied to cheese capacity, and potential drivers of any price correction.

  8. Jun 17

    Jun 17, 2026 - A two-week dairy market heading into summer

    The dairy market is moving at two speeds right now, and the next Dairy Cafe is a chance to step back and read the whole board.On one side, butter, milk powders and most cheese have drifted lower through late spring. On the other side, the whey protein complex keeps setting record highs.So which way does the second half of the year break? Sebastiaan Laurenceau and Feiko Keilholz will walk through where butter, cheese, SMP, WMP and the protein complex actually stand, what is driving the split, and the questions worth watching as the market heads into its summer lull.In one session you will get:• A clear read on each dairy category, from milkfat to whey proteins• What sits behind the softer commodity tone and the still-tight protein market• The signals to watch for where prices go from here

See All (22)

About

The Dairy Café is your bi-weekly update on the global dairy market. Hosted by Vesper's Market Analyst Jasper Endlich and co-hosts Feiko Keilholz and Seb Laurenceau, each episode dives into the latest price trends and developments across key dairy categories, including cheeses, liquids, wheys, and powders, all powdered by Vesper’s commodity data. Whether you’re buying, selling, trading, or just tracking the market, we’re here to keep you informed. *This podcast is part of our bi-weekly webinar series. Want the full picture with live charts and data? Sign up free at vespertool.com/webinars.

Information

  • Creator
    Vesper
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    22
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Vesper
  • Show Website
    The Dairy Cafe