The PredictIt Podcast

PredictIt
  • 5.0 (6)
  • Investing

We're analyzing prediction markets on PredictIt every week - discussing the news, what's on the horizon, market dynamics and value in every opportunity. Hosted by Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem, two prediction market veterans and politics enthusiasts, we'll provide a non-partisan, strictly business perspective on PredictIt's available markets, contracts, prices and traders. Listen to the PredictIt Podcast for the best prediction market analysis available in podcast form!

  1. 19h ago

    Which Senate Races Are the Polls Getting Wrong?

    It's a full Senate polling roundup — every race that matters, poll by poll, checked against where PredictIt traders actually have the money. Texas is a dead heat: Paxton and Talarico tied 47-47 in the NYT/Siena poll, with real signs of Paxton weakness under the surface. Maine tells a different story — Collins holds a steady edge while Platner's campaign gets buried under a staggering outside-money gap ($4.3M vs $440K in a five-day span). Michigan's Democratic primary is effectively over, with El-Sayed running away and traders having already called it. Plus, a Florida poll that traders think is flat-out fake, the generic ballot tightening toward Republicans, and why Jacob likes buying Republican on the Senate control market right now. Then: Garth's case that the smartest Democratic play heading into August is to get out of the way and let Trump be Trump. Chapters: 00:00 Colorado results and the anti-incumbent wave 06:30 SCOTUS: Alito retirement watch + FECA caps overturned 15:40 Texas Senate: Paxton vs. Talarico (dead heat) 22:45 Maine: Collins vs. Platner and the money bomb 30:20 Michigan: El-Sayed, Stevens, McMorrow 35:00 Generic ballot + the Senate control market read Full episode also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and iHeart. Markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 #Senate2026 #Polling #PredictionMarkets

    35 min

  2. Jun 24

    Mamdani Sweeps New York

    Mamdani went 3-for-3 last night — sweeping all three New York City congressional primaries and ousting two incumbents, including Hakeem Jeffries-backed Adriano Espaillat in NY-13. Brad Lander flattened Dan Goldman in NY-10. Claire Valdez dominated Antonio Reynoso in NY-7. The left now has a kingmaker. But the real result nobody is covering: Cait Conley in NY-17 — the West Point grad, former NSC counterterrorism director, and MIT/Harvard alum who just became the Democrats' best shot at flipping a swing seat in November. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Mamdani sweeps NYC: Brad Lander, Claire Valdez, and Darializa Avila Chevalier all win 08:00 — NY-17: Cait Conley wins — Democrats at 87¢ to flip Mike Lawler's seat 12:00 — NY-12: Micah Lasher beats Alex Bores, Schlossberg hits 11%, Conway at 6% 16:00 — The Iran deal is in the garbage — and we called Israel as the wildcard last week 20:00 — War powers resolution passes the Senate: three months too late, but fine 23:00 — Housing bill passes bipartisan — Byron Donalds' "no" vote and what it signals for his Florida governor race 26:00 — MTG and Tucker Carlson leave the GOP: welcome to the political wilderness 28:00 — Trump approval at 40% — does America 250 paper over the cracks? 32:00 — The Reflecting Pool disaster: algae, a $14M contractor, and government waste 36:00 — July calendar: jobs report, CPI, Fed rate decision, and the World Cup wild card Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #Mamdani #NewYorkPrimary2026

    38 min

  3. Jun 17

    Iran Deal Done. Gas Prices Down. Is the GOP Back?

    For the first time since Venezuela, Republicans have real momentum — and it came from three places at once: an Iran deal signed in Geneva, gas prices falling week over week, and UFC 250 entering through the Oval Office. Democrats are still at 71¢ to take the House, but the environment is tightening. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Knicks win, Trump's off the hook? The White House visit debate 04:30 — Herschel Walker, Bahamas safety alerts, and jet ski diplomacy 07:00 — Georgia runoff results: Ossoff cruises to 88¢, governor race hits 52-49 10:00 — UFC at the White House: effective propaganda or birthday party? 13:00 — Iran deal: what we know, what Bloomberg leaked, and why it's still a win regardless 17:00 — Gas prices down three weeks straight — Trump claims victory he may have earned 19:00 — Trump's approval bounces, generic ballot narrows: what prediction markets say 21:00 — NY-12: Lasher 63¢, Boris 34¢, the establishment machine takes over 25:00 — Brad Lander at 97¢, NY-7 Valdez vs. Reynoso — Jacob likes Reynoso at 49¢ Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #IranDeal #2026Midterms

    24 min

  4. Jun 10

    Is Graham Platner Underpriced to Beat Collins in Maine?

    Graham Platner won the Maine Democratic primary last night with 77% of the vote — Is the Market Overreacting to the Platner Scandal? We broke down the thesis weeks ago: scandals with diminishing returns, outsider energy in a fighter's environment, and a Democratic electorate ready to act like toddlers when told who not to vote for. Democrats are now at 59¢ to beat Susan Collins in November. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Trump at MSG: the booing, the suit, and what it tells you about the secret New Yorker 06:00 — California's two-week vote count: sus, legal, and a structural problem only one state has 10:00 — Maine Senate: Platner wins, thesis confirmed, Collins vs. the oyster farmer is on 18:00 — Why scandals with diminishing returns make Platner the Democrats' Trump 22:00 — Iran: Trump says "deal is close" 38 times, then fires again — and the market for that quote 25:00 — Inflation up most since April 2023: what it does to the Senate market at 64¢ for Republicans 27:00 — Texas Senate AI ad, Talarico shifts on trans surgery, Tarico vs. Cornyn tightening 29:00 — House market breakdown: Dems at 71¢, Senate at 40¢, or take the combo at 36¢? 31:00 — LA mayor runoff: Bass wins easy, Ramen too progressive even for LA, Spencer Pratt voters stay home 34:00 — World Cup picks: Jacob takes South Korea, Garth has a team in every group Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #GrahamPlatner #Maine2026

    35 min

  5. Jun 3

    AI, Aliens, and the Age of Aquarius with Dr. Laurence Hillman (Part 2)

    An astrologer's archetypal forecast for 2026... without making a single prediction. Dr. Laurence Hillman returns for Part 2 with his most provocative takes: AI acceleration, alien disclosure, the Leo-Aquarius tension defining our era, and why "expect the unexpected" isn't a joke right now: 00:00 — How archetypes shape entire electorates: post-war America vs. now 06:00 — The three archetypes America has lost: nurture, real dreamer, and sovereignty 11:00 — The Age of Aquarius: what the Leo-Aquarius tension means for politics 18:00 — Uranus in Gemini: why 2026 is particularly unpredictable 22:00 — AI, decentralization, and nervous system exhaustion 27:00 — Alien disclosure and the collective consciousness shift 32:00 — Discernment as the most important skill for 2026 and beyond 36:00 — "I wouldn't bet a cent on the future" Watch Part 1: https://youtu.be/4pnS6H0dlc8?si=pjPTyOLyp67XEkzE Trade 2026 political markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #AgeOfAquarius #Astrology2026

    18 min

  6. May 27

    Archetypal Astrology and Trump with Dr. Laurence Hillman (Part 1)

    Can astrology predict political outcomes — or is it something else entirely? Dr. Laurence Hillman, one of the world's leading archetypal astrologers, argues it's neither prediction nor superstition. It's pattern recognition for time itself. In Part 1, Jacob Studwell talks with Dr. Hillman about: 00:00 Introduction to Archetypal Astrology08:56 Evolution of Archetypal Astrology17:08 Understanding Archetypes in Public Figures24:18 Forecasting and Imagination in Leadership Trade 2026 political markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #Astrology2026 #Astrology

    28 min

  7. May 18

    The PredictIt Podcast From Peru!

    We called Kevin Warsh at 54 votes. It came in 54-45 — the closest Fed chair confirmation in modern history. The contract was trading at 3¢ the day before. If you're not listening, you're leaving money on the table. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell (reporting live from Peru) and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — PredictIt Pod dispatches from Peru: Lima, Paracas, bird islands 03:30 — Warsh confirmed 54-45: we called it, here's what it means for rates 07:00 — Trump in Beijing with Xi: Art of the Deal or genuine pivot on China? 10:00 — War powers vote: 212-212 tie, Jared Golden's deal, and what happens next 14:30 — Gas tax holiday: inevitable or does a hot stock market kill it? 17:00 — Fed rate hike incoming? How Warsh's first meeting on June 16 changes everything 19:30 — War powers at 11¢ in the House — is this a buy? 22:00 — Switching to Wednesdays after Memorial Day + astrology episode preview Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Real markets, real money, individual position limits that protect market integrity. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #KevinWarsh #FedChair

    22 min

  8. May 11

    Virginia Redistricting Struck Down: Who Wins the House Now?

    The Virginia Supreme Court just struck down the voter-approved redistricting referendum in a 4-3 ruling — blocking a map that would have flipped four House seats. Democrats have fallen from 85¢ to 70¢ to take the House, and traders are repricing in real time. In this episode of The PredictIt Podcast, Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem cover: 00:00 — Virginia Supreme Court kills the redistricting referendum: what it means 06:00 — Democrats at 71¢, "192 or fewer" seats contract crashes from 38¢ to 24¢ 09:00 — Spanberger vs. Jeffries: institutionalist vs. fighter — which strategy wins? 12:30 — Michigan Senate primary: Abdul El-Sayed (52¢) vs. McMorrow vs. Stevens 18:00 — Why traders are underpricing the establishment candidate Hailey Stevens 21:00 — New York 12: Lasher, Boris, Schlossberg, Conway — who wins Nadler's seat? 28:00 — The "Oreo strategy": progressive inside, kitchen table centrist outside 31:00 — Herschel Walker, ambassadorships, and the best jobs in American politics Trade these markets on PredictIt: https://bit.ly/predictit2026 PredictIt is a real-money prediction market for U.S. politics. Real markets, real money, individual position limits designed to protect market integrity. Subscribe: https://youtube.com/@PredictItOfficial X: https://x.com/PredictItPod #PredictionMarkets #VirginiaRedistricting #2026Midterms

    35 min
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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
6 Ratings

About

We're analyzing prediction markets on PredictIt every week - discussing the news, what's on the horizon, market dynamics and value in every opportunity. Hosted by Jacob Studwell and Garth Juckem, two prediction market veterans and politics enthusiasts, we'll provide a non-partisan, strictly business perspective on PredictIt's available markets, contracts, prices and traders. Listen to the PredictIt Podcast for the best prediction market analysis available in podcast form!

Information

  • Creator
    PredictIt
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    33
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2025 PredictIt