N N Taleb's Probability Questions (UNOFFICIAL)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Unofficial) (Uploaded by Juan Suero)
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Reuploads from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's YouTube channel (www.youtube.com/@nntalebproba). This is NOT an official channel of his, just a "fan" who wanted to have the conferences and conversations available in this format. If there is any issue with this, I will take down the content. Just reach out to @thejuansuero on X or thejuansuero@gmail.com Hopefully some of you find this useful!

  1. 11/11/2025

    Sornette vs. Taleb Diametrically Opposite Approaches to Risk & Predictability (2014)

    An ETH sponsored meeting and debate between Nassim Taleb and Didier Sornette. Edited to eliminate the parts of the conversation not involving either but otherwise comprehensive.A "diplomatic debate" is defined by Taleb as a conversation in which one looks for synthesis (as opposed to one in which one is trying, as in war, to win the argument, as with political debates). Clearly this type of debate only works when the two parties have mutual respect for each other. Original: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuvbghZuM8U

    46 min

  2. 11/11/2025

    Nassim Nicholas Taleb Lebanon: From Ponzi to Localism (2019)

    A presentation at USJ during the Lebanese protests that was live on TV.In the Lebanese "dialect". Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU

    1h 31m

  3. 11/11/2025

    Tail risk of contagious diseases: a conversation with coauthor Pasquale Cirillo (2020)

    Paper in Nature Physics on "the dog wags the tails", how pandemics are fat tailed and the implications.https://www.nature.com/articles/s4156...We also discuss the dangers of verbalistic users of statistical buzzwords without understanding probability s.a. BS vendor Philip Tetlock. They produce one point estimates for distributions with unstable, unknown or infinite moments, which is pseudoscience.We propose basic probability training. “Learn probability for years before learning statistics, or you will hurt yourself”.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggrW6qi0qZQ

    28 min

  4. 11/11/2025

    Stephen Wolfram visits RWRI 18 (Summer Workshop) (2023)

    Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60sNXOyGmps

    2h 18m

  5. 11/11/2025

    STEPHEN WOLFRAM VISITS RWRI 19, SUMMER SCHOOL 2024

    TOPICS: 2nd law, generative AI, computational Irreducibility, climate modeling.Stephen Wolfram's discussion with participants at the Real World Risk Institute Summer School 2024, with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Robert Frey, Raphael Douady, and others. Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKWyx7Mw_rQ

    1h 57m

  6. 11/11/2025

    Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson Discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 4 (2024)

    Geoengineering -- Mao's Four Pest Problem -- Brexit -- How antagonism between bad politicians can turn into good government -- The "LongTermism" nonsense of SBF -- The Final ChapterOriginal video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-xhpBuNdCw

    1h 3m

  7. 11/11/2025

    Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson Discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 3 (2024)

    Why Ilmanen-style "simulations" of tail performance are both theoretically and empirically flawed because of 1) need to extrapolate extremes, and 2) The Niederhoffer problem.The birth of the Non-Naive Precautionary Principle in East Anglia, in a pub discussion with Rupert Read.Original video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaWLcxTMwk8

    1h 5m

  8. 11/11/2025

    Nassim Taleb and Scott Patterson discuss "Chaos Kings", Part 2 (2024)

    +The Turkey Problem Meeting Mandelbrot & discovering a wealth of processes generating grey swans Meeting Kahneman The 3-day meeting with the Harvard geneticist George Church, involving Elon Musk, Anne Wojcicki, Larry Page, Richard Thaler, & others that triggered the non-naive version of the precautionary principle. Original Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDq6rCTl_fU

    1h 7m
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Reuploads from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's YouTube channel (www.youtube.com/@nntalebproba). This is NOT an official channel of his, just a "fan" who wanted to have the conferences and conversations available in this format. If there is any issue with this, I will take down the content. Just reach out to @thejuansuero on X or thejuansuero@gmail.com Hopefully some of you find this useful!

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    N N Taleb's Probability Questions (UNOFFICIAL)

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