Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers with a Microphone

R. Stanton Scott and Scott Konopasek

I chose the name Foggy Bottom Line years ago while working on a doctorate at George Washington University. I studied international relations and security there and it’s in Foggy Bottom in DC, so it made sense at the time. The Foggy Bottom Line brand focuses on the idea that the bottom line answer to most questions is rarely completely clear. A bit of fog always clouds the truth, and I don’t deal in absolutes. Background may or may not give credibility, and we have no desire to argue from authority or experience (which is always, after all, anecdotal). We're either right or wrong and will always endeavor to provide evidence – or at least logical reasoning – that supports our views and policy recommendations. But for the record Scott and I are both retired combat soldiers (tanks and intelligence) with broad military, academic, economic, political, and management training and experience. I have worked defense contracting and Scott served as a local election official for decades is several states. We bring a unique blend of conservative and liberal thought to the national debate and believe our analysis and commentary has an audience. But as always, we could be wrong.

  1. 3d ago

    Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers: The War in Iran is a No Win Scenario

    We've seen a lot of developments in the Iran War over the last few weeks. Iran fired a ballistic missile at the USS George Washington, a Ford class aircraft carrier. Didn't hit it, but did the effort help Iran build the technology needed? Did Russian and/or China help? Iran also claimed to have captured a US drone submarine...quite the technology find...and attacked ten vessels attempting to move through the strait. The US destroyed five Iranian tankers in response. Houthis attacked the civilian airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the US declined a request for help because of low munitions inventories. Most recently, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US eases military pressure and ends it's blockade of Iran's ports. Meanwhile at home, oil prices topped $100 a barrel, gas averages $4.50 a gallon, and diesel fuel is almost $7 a gallon, which hits farmers and shippers where it hurts. And as the GAO reports the war's high costs and the Pentagon tries to hide casualties while avoiding intense warfare to save precious munitions. What does all this mean about who is winning? This week we revisit the Iran war and discuss victory conditions and what each side needs to do if they want to claim a win. Spoiler: Iran doesn't have to win. They just have to keep bleeding us. Follow us on Socials: https://linktr.ee/FoggyBottomLine Politics VLog #Politics #economics #Iran #Trump #Hormuz #SaudiArabia #Houthis #OilPrices #Oil #Drones #Missiles #Israel

    Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers: The War in Iran is a No Win Scenario
  2. Aug 13

    Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers: Iran War Situation Report - Are We There Yet, Daddy Trump?

    Five months into the war against Iran, the US has achieved nothing but a stalemate. After spending close to $40T in taxpayer money and launching something like have the US inventory of munitions - making the US more vulnerable to attacks from China - Iran and the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps have not been brought to heel. In fact, they've all but closed the Strait of Hormuz and could block it completely at will. Their proxies can close the Red Sea and other transportation routes. And they've announced that they'll simply wait until Trump is out of office, like they did to Carter in 1980, to negotiate. They have not lost the war and are in a strategic position to simply embrace the status quo for two years. The Iranian government is now younger and more radicalized, and the population that was close to revolution last year has now rallied around the flag. Iran has disrupted the global economy, caused higher prices on almost every consumer good, and caused a geopolitical shift away from the US toward new alliances that could impact our national security for decades. Scott and I predicted much of this after the war began, and now that most of the primaries are complete we thought it made sense to send a situation report on where we are. Trump never really shared his goals and vision for this war, but if if was regime change and stopping Iranian efforts to build a nuclear weapon, we have to ask: Are we there yet, Daddy Trump? Follow us on Socials: https://linktr.ee/FoggyBottomLine Politics VLog #Politics #Economics #Iran #Israel #Strait of Hormuz #USMilitary

    Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers: Iran War Situation Report - Are We There Yet, Daddy Trump?

About

I chose the name Foggy Bottom Line years ago while working on a doctorate at George Washington University. I studied international relations and security there and it’s in Foggy Bottom in DC, so it made sense at the time. The Foggy Bottom Line brand focuses on the idea that the bottom line answer to most questions is rarely completely clear. A bit of fog always clouds the truth, and I don’t deal in absolutes. Background may or may not give credibility, and we have no desire to argue from authority or experience (which is always, after all, anecdotal). We're either right or wrong and will always endeavor to provide evidence – or at least logical reasoning – that supports our views and policy recommendations. But for the record Scott and I are both retired combat soldiers (tanks and intelligence) with broad military, academic, economic, political, and management training and experience. I have worked defense contracting and Scott served as a local election official for decades is several states. We bring a unique blend of conservative and liberal thought to the national debate and believe our analysis and commentary has an audience. But as always, we could be wrong.