Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers with a Microphone

R. Stanton Scott and Scott Konopasek

I chose the name Foggy Bottom Line years ago while working on a doctorate at George Washington University. I studied international relations and security there and it’s in Foggy Bottom in DC, so it made sense at the time. The Foggy Bottom Line brand focuses on the idea that the bottom line answer to most questions is rarely completely clear. A bit of fog always clouds the truth, and I don’t deal in absolutes. Background may or may not give credibility, and we have no desire to argue from authority or experience (which is always, after all, anecdotal). We're either right or wrong and will always endeavor to provide evidence – or at least logical reasoning – that supports our views and policy recommendations. But for the record Scott and I are both retired combat soldiers (tanks and intelligence) with broad military, academic, economic, political, and management training and experience. I have worked defense contracting and Scott served as a local election official for decades is several states. We bring a unique blend of conservative and liberal thought to the national debate and believe our analysis and commentary has an audience. But as always, we could be wrong.

  1. Oct 29

    2026 Midterms: Attack on Midterm Legitimacy

    An accurate vote count and public acceptance of an election are two different problems. The defining political struggle of this moment may not be over votes, policies, or even elections themselves. It may be over legitimacy. Elections, courts, journalists, and professional administrators function as society's fact-finding and dispute-resolution mechanisms. When confidence in those institutions declines simultaneously, political conflict increasingly shifts from debating policy to debating reality itself. From an intelligence perspective, that trend deserves far more attention than any single controversy currently dominating the news cycle. Stan Scott and Scott Konopasek examine the 2026 midterms through an intelligence lens: what the evidence shows, what we can reasonably infer, and what would change the assessment. We discuss the Alaska certification lawsuit, California’s dispute with DOJ over suspected noncitizen registrations and ballot handling, the role of political narratives, and safeguards that can keep a disputed election on track. We also consider concentrated political resources and Project 2025’s approach to executive personnel control. Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers with a Microphone is a Foggy Bottom Line Media production. Subscribe, hit the like button, and leave us a comment. Follow us on Socials: https://linktr.ee/FoggyBottomLine Politics VLog #Politics #Economics #Trump #Elections #Midterms #Republicans #Democrats #Voting

    2026 Midterms: Attack on Midterm Legitimacy
  2. Oct 20

    Hegseth's New Military: Nor Lethal? Or More Grifting?

    Last week we talked about Pete Hegseth's State of the Force speech with a focus on aesthetics and message...pretty much a peacock strutting around a stage talking about how identity matters for showing merit. This week we cover the six Defense Department reforms he proposed: 1. AutoWarCom, a new combatant command for autonomous warfare. 2. Project Meridian, a commission led by tech bros with no military experience to study the future of warfare. 3. Fortress America, an initiative to make US bases more resilient. 4. The Next Great American Base, a proposed super base with no apparent mission. 5. America's Corps of Cadets, a new officer pipeline focused on five specific universities, including two religious schools. 6. Office of Religious Affairs, a new organization focused on "spiritual readiness" that bypasses the Chaplain Corps and unit commanders. These initiatives cluster around three themes: politicization of leadership and institutions, contractor and ideological influence over strategy, and erosion of apolitical norms that make the US military so effective. Scott and I use our experience and expertise to analyze these proposals discuss requirements, how we see the intent, and possible outcomes. The Foggy Bottom Line? Hegseth wants to purge the military of dissent, hand national defense to tech bros and indoctrinate the troops with Christian nationalism. This will not make the US military more lethal, but it sets conditions for more grifting.

    Hegseth's New Military: Nor Lethal? Or More Grifting?
  3. Oct 2

    Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers: The War in Iran is a No Win Scenario

    We've seen a lot of developments in the Iran War over the last few weeks. Iran fired a ballistic missile at the USS George Washington, a Ford class aircraft carrier. Didn't hit it, but did the effort help Iran build the technology needed? Did Russian and/or China help? Iran also claimed to have captured a US drone submarine...quite the technology find...and attacked ten vessels attempting to move through the strait. The US destroyed five Iranian tankers in response. Houthis attacked the civilian airport in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the US declined a request for help because of low munitions inventories. Most recently, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US eases military pressure and ends it's blockade of Iran's ports. Meanwhile at home, oil prices topped $100 a barrel, gas averages $4.50 a gallon, and diesel fuel is almost $7 a gallon, which hits farmers and shippers where it hurts. And as the GAO reports the war's high costs and the Pentagon tries to hide casualties while avoiding intense warfare to save precious munitions. What does all this mean about who is winning? This week we revisit the Iran war and discuss victory conditions and what each side needs to do if they want to claim a win. Spoiler: Iran doesn't have to win. They just have to keep bleeding us. Follow us on Socials: https://linktr.ee/FoggyBottomLine Politics VLog #Politics #economics #Iran #Trump #Hormuz #SaudiArabia #Houthis #OilPrices #Oil #Drones #Missiles #Israel

    Two Crusty Old Combat Soldiers: The War in Iran is a No Win Scenario

About

I chose the name Foggy Bottom Line years ago while working on a doctorate at George Washington University. I studied international relations and security there and it’s in Foggy Bottom in DC, so it made sense at the time. The Foggy Bottom Line brand focuses on the idea that the bottom line answer to most questions is rarely completely clear. A bit of fog always clouds the truth, and I don’t deal in absolutes. Background may or may not give credibility, and we have no desire to argue from authority or experience (which is always, after all, anecdotal). We're either right or wrong and will always endeavor to provide evidence – or at least logical reasoning – that supports our views and policy recommendations. But for the record Scott and I are both retired combat soldiers (tanks and intelligence) with broad military, academic, economic, political, and management training and experience. I have worked defense contracting and Scott served as a local election official for decades is several states. We bring a unique blend of conservative and liberal thought to the national debate and believe our analysis and commentary has an audience. But as always, we could be wrong.