The Polling Alley

Overton Insights
  • 4.9 (24)
  • Politics

The Polling Alley, the Overton Insights podcast, breaks down the latest polling numbers nationwide, making sense of where voters stand on politics, policy, and so much more. Listen in if you're interested in what voters are really thinking as we uncover the public opinion trends shaping today's political landscape. Mark Cunningham, Overton Insights Poll Director and Olivia Michiels, Poll Analyst at Overton Insights, dive into insights about the latest poll numbers and trends.

  1. 2d ago

    Races you might not be watching yet

    Our Texas poll is now included in Nate Silver's forecasts! Plus Olivia and Mark dig into three races most people may not be watching yet, plus the math both parties need in order to control the Senate after the midterms. In this episode, we cover: - Overton's Texas poll tops Nate Silver's forecast – Our recent Texas survey, built on a likely voter screen of over 1,100 respondents, is now weighted highest in Silver Bulletin's model. We break down what got us there and why methodology matters more than timing. - Kansas gets its moment – A listener contest winner picked the topic, so we dig into the Kansas Governor's race between Cindy Holster and J.D. Masterson, plus the Roger Marshall vs. Adam Hamilton Senate race. We discuss why Kansas isn't the deep-red state people assume, and why this is the first two-candidate governor's ballot the state has seen in 32 years. - New Hampshire's under-the-radar Senate race – Mark makes the case for why John Sununu could be more competitive against Chris Pappas than the betting markets suggest, and what his family name means in a state with a surprisingly libertarian streak. - Minnesota's stunner of a poll – A new TIPP survey has Michelle Tafoya down just two points to Peggy Flanagan, a huge indicator the race may be closer than one might expect. We discuss what it signals for Republicans across the Midwest. - The path to Senate control – With Republicans holding a 53-47 edge, we rank the races that actually decide the majority, including Maine, Texas, and one Senator whose party affiliation could scramble the math entirely. --- POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Global Strategy Group poll, Kansas Governor's race (Holster internal): https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/08/28/nevada-dems-2028-reality-check-01053864 📊 University of New Hampshire poll, Sununu +2: https://scholars.unh.edu/survey_center_polls/988/ 📊 TIPP poll for the League of American Workers, Minnesota Senate: https://tippinsights.com/league-of-american-workers-survey-minnesota/ --- The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels, alongside Mark Cunningham, Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

  2. Sep 4

    Talarico leads Paxton by 0.6% in new Texas poll

    Is Texas a red state, a purple state, or something in between? Our new Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation poll finds the Paxton–Talarico Senate race locked in a dead heat when leaners are forced to choose a candidate, and our hypothetical matchips may upend everything you've heard about who the "electable" candidate really is. In this episode, we cover: It's football season! We asked over 1,100 likely Texas voters who the most obnoxious college fan base is. We crowned the Texas A&M Aggies as the winner with 29.7% and University of Texas took a close second with 27.4%. Surprisingly, the University of Houston Cougars came in third. Is Texas actually turning purple? – 57% of Texans call their state reliably red, 38.3% say it's competitive, and just 4.7% call it blue. We break down why newcomers are far more likely to see purple, why nearly 29% of Republicans agree, and TPPF's Eric Oldfather makes the case that Texas is a "light red" state. Paxton vs. Talarico is a coin flip – Ken Paxton sits at 43.4% to James Talarico's 44%, and the race lands at an exact 50-50 once leaners are pushed. We analyze why this is the best Senate number Paxton has posted in months, and why Talarico has to "pitch a perfect game" to win. The Cornyn and Crockett myth-busting – Conventional wisdom said John Cornyn would have likely been the stronger nominee. This data says otherwise. Paxton trails Talarico by 0.6 points, and Cornyn by 0.9 points. On the other side, Jasmine Crockett loses to Paxton by 6 points. We discuss what that means for candidate quality versus the national environment. Is the Texas power grid reliable? We polled the difference in confidence among voters during periods of extreme heat and extreme cold. Eric Oldfather from the Texas Public Policy Foundation joins us to discuss the state of the Texas power grid and what Texans should know about today's energy policy landscape.  POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. This episode also features special guest Eric Oldfather, Vice President of Communications at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, an Austin-based think tank. A sixth-generation Texan, Oldfather spent a decade as a digital marketing consultant for political campaigns and advocacy groups before joining TPPF, and holds a political science degree from George Washington University. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll - September 2026 Overton Insights / Texas Public Policy Foundation Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/

  3. Aug 29

    Episode 14

    Seventy-one percent of Americans don't want data centers built near them, and it's becoming one of the most critical issues on the 2026 ballot. This week we dig into why the industry lost the messaging war before it started, where Trump's approval is dragging Senate candidates, and a seasonality quirk that may make summer polls lean more Democratic. In this episode, we cover: Why are data centers the most hated issue of the cycle? – A leaked Senate GOP campaign memo warned AI companies that opposition to data centers is threatening a key Ohio seat. We break down why the backlash crosses party lines, how candidates like Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin are flipping the script, and why roughly 70% opposition is showing up in state after state ahead of our upcoming Texas poll. Is Trump's approval sinking the Senate map? – With net approval sitting between minus 20 to 26, we analyze the balancing act Republican candidates face as November quickly approaches. What's behind the summer polling bump for Democrats? – Patrick Ruffini's review of roughly 3,300 Senate polls found a late-July-to-August lean toward Democrats that fades by Election Day. We discuss the leading theories, from reluctant Republican voters to likely-voter model gaps, plus Nate Silver's take using the Michigan Senate race as a live example. POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Gallup polling on data center sentiment (~71% unfavorable): https://news.gallup.com/poll/709772/americans-oppose-data-centers-area.aspx 📰 Axios reporting on the Senate GOP campaign memo (Ohio): https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/gop-data-center-memo-ai-election?utm_medium=referral 📊 Patrick Ruffini / Echelon Insights report on ~3,300 Senate polls: https://www.patrickruffini.com/p/why-senate-polling-is-always-worse The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

  4. Aug 21

    Social Media Isn't Real Life! Plus, Florida's Primaries

    What an upset in the Florida Democratic Senate Primary! Plus, our take on Median Strategies "social experiment" and how it hurts the credibility of legitimate pollsters. In this episode, we cover: How did a $16 million establishment favorite lose to a candidate with under $1 million? – We break down Angie Nixon's grassroots upset over Alex Vindman in the Florida Senate primary, why Mark thinks Democrats' habit of nominating "boring but well-funded" candidates keeps failing, and what Nixon's win means for Ashley Moody and Republicans' hold on the seat. The internet is not real life, (as we expected) Florida governor edition – Byron Donalds won with 48% of the vote, and James Fishback's enthusiastic online following translated to a distant third-place finish behind Jay Collins. A pollster admitted it made up numbers, and it got worse from there – The Public Sentiment Institute (TPSI) had Fishback within striking distance while every legitimate poll had him near 10%. We discuss their memo explaining they moved Jay Collins voters to Fishback, the "social experiment" claims from Median Strategies, and what G. Elliott Morris and AAPOR are doing about it.   SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up: a shocking Senate upset and a fake poll 00:22 - Angie Nixon takes down a $16 million favorite 02:25 - Was this a Mamdani-style campaign? Not quite 04:00 - The governor's race goes exactly as polling predicted 04:21 - Byron Donalds wins by 22, Fishback finishes a distant third 06:37 - David Jolly vs. Angie Nixon: two very different Democratic bets 09:06 - Electability and the late-decider question 10:14 - The Fishback polling problem, TPSI 13:10 - The memo that made it worse: "we changed the votes" 15:40 - Median Strategies and the "social experiment" scam 17:30 - Why internal candidate polls need more scrutiny 21:04 - How to spot a credible poll when you're scrolling X POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Echelon Insights (weekly platform usage, 27% X): https://echeloninsights.com/insights/august-2026-verified-voter-omnibus 🎙 G. Elliott Morris on excluding TPSI from aggregation: https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/2090406757818359935 🎙 AAPOR statement on fabricated data: https://aapor.org/announcements/aapor-responds-to-fabricated-polling-data/ The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

  5. Aug 14

    Episode 12

    Wisconsin just delivered another big polling miss. Mark and Olivia sit down and discuss how David Crowley pulled off an upset in the Democratic primary for Governor, what the miss says about polling in contested primaries, and why a new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead in New York starting to narrow. In this episode, we cover: - How did every Wisconsin poll get it so wrong? – Francesca Hong led primary polls by more than 20 points and then lost to David Crowley by less than a point. We break down what went wrong with the polling, how it compares to Michigan's Senate primary miss two weeks earlier, and why Mark pushes back on the idea that prediction markets deserve the blame. - How the Minnesota Gubernatorial primary compares to Michigan and Wisconsin? Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan won the Democratic nomination for governor while former NFL sideline reporter Michelle Tafoya took the Republican side. We discuss why labels like "moderate" and "far-left" are getting harder to apply with any precision. - Is New York's governor race actually competitive? A new Siena poll shows Kathy Hochul's lead over her Republican challenger narrowing to 10 points. We explain why Mark calls it "fool's gold" for Republicans and what would actually need to happen for New York to be in play. SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up: a huge Wisconsin polling miss and a shrinking Hochul lead in New York  00:35 - David Crowley's shock win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin  03:00 - Comparing Wisconsin's polling miss to Michigan's Senate primary two weeks earlier 05:54 - The betting markets flip overnight as votes come in 06:36 - Mark defends prediction markets against the "it's not real" critics 09:26 - Looking a the latest Crowley vs. Tiffany poll 11:12 - Minnesota's primary: Flanagan wins for the Democrats, Tafoya wins for the GOP 11:48 - Why "moderate" and "far-left" labels don't mean much anymore 13:43 - New Siena poll: Hochul's lead narrows to 10 points in New York 14:04 - Why Mark calls a competitive New York race "fool's gold" POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Siena College poll, New York gubernatorial race: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/08/12/siena-hochul-has-10-point-lead-over-blakeman-in-first-poll-of-likely-voters-01033560 📊 General election poll, Wisconsin governor's race (Crowley +3): https://www.pollsmax.com/governor/wisconsin/ 🎲 Kalshi, Wisconsin governor's race: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook- @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

  6. Aug 7

    Episode 11

    The polls had Abdul El-Sayed cruising by 15-plus points in the Michigan Democratic Senate Primary. He won by one. This week we dig into one of the worst polling misses in recent history and what to take from it. In this episode, we cover: How did Michigan's Senate primary polls fool almost everyone? – El-Sayed edged Haley Stevens by a single point while polls and prediction markets had him winning by a much larger margin. Plus, Mallory McMorrow, already out of the race, still pulled 4%. We break down why the polls showed a blowout, the role of open-primaries and seasonality in polling, and whether pollsters herded toward the Emerson numbers. Texas and Wisconsin are closer than the headlines suggest – A new YouGov poll puts James Talarico up on Ken Paxton, but Randy calls Talarico's lead "fool's gold." We analyze the 2018 Cruz-Beto comparison, the money gap, and why Mark thinks Wisconsin's Democratic primary between Francesca Hong and David Crowley is far from settled. Maine, hot takes, and a sleeper Senate race – Troy Jackson leads Susan Collins in fresh Hart Research numbers, and we explain why we still wouldn't bet against Collins. Plus Randy's case that summer generic-ballot polls are overstating Democratic support, and Mark's pick for the race nobody's talking about. POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Emerson College Michigan Senate primary poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-abdul-el-sayed-leads-haley-stevens-for-democratic-us-senate-nomination/  📊 YouGov Texas Senate poll (Talarico 48%, Paxton 45%): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas+Statewide+August2026.pdf  📊 NYT/Siena Texas Senate poll (June, tied 47%/47%): https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/07/01/polls/times-siena-texas-poll-crosstabs.html 🎲Kalshi, Texas Senate Race: kalshi.com/markets/senatetx 🎲Polymarket, Texas Senate Race: polymarket.com/predictions/texas-senate 📊 PPP Wisconsin governor primary poll (Hong 52%, Crowley 33%): https://www.wisn.com/article/crowley-campaign-argues-primary-is-closer-than-polls-say-after-michigan-results/73358997  📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll (Hong 38%, and 46% with leaners): https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2026/07/29/marquette-law-poll-finds-expanded-support-for-hong-in-democratic-primary-barnes-sits-second-and-crowley-third/ 🎲Kalshi, Wisconsin Governor General Election: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartywi/wisconsin-governor/govpartywi-26 🎲Polymarket, Wisconsin Democratic primary: polymarket.com/event/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-winner 📊 Hart Research Maine Senate poll (Jackson 49%, Collins 45%): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1c_Oz7n375ncOkmMWPs8DJTKcBD3Gke4-/view  📰 "Moderate Democrats Prepare for 'War' Against an Ascendant Left," The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/06/us/politics/democratic-party-socialists-moderates.html?searchResultPosition=1  🎙 Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) "nobody knows nothing" post on X: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini/status/2084835353437860230?s=20  This episode of The Polling Alley features Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham, founder of the Beacon Poll, with special guest Randy Ellison, founder and president of Targoz Market Research and author of the Pollsters' Almanac on Substack. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X and Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

  7. Jul 30

    Will El-Sayed Win? Could Ohio Split the Ticket?

    Will El-Sayed beat Stevens in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary? New Emerson polling has Abdul El-Sayed up 15 over Haley Stevens, and Gretchen Whitmer's endorsement may have made things worse...  In this episode, we cover: Did Whitmer's endorsement backfire on Haley Stevens? – Fresh Emerson polling shows Abdul El-Sayed leading the Michigan Senate primary by 15 points, with a separate poll putting him up 11. We break down why Governor Whitmer's endorsement of Stevens right before Monday's debate seems to have cost her approval rating 16 points, and whether El-Sayed can hold the middle against Mike Rogers in a general election. Could Ohio Split the Ticket? – Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton are running dead even for governor, and John Husted is trying to defend a Senate seat with little name recognition against Sherrod Brown. We dig into why polls and prediction markets align, and why Ohio may be more like Michigan than some want to admit. Who do voters actually consider "elite"? – A new poll from The Argument / Verasight asked Americans to define the elite, and the answer wasn't professors or journalists. We discuss what the results mean for how both parties talk about class, and why Democrats may be stuck choosing between a primary they can win and a general they can't. 📊 Emerson College Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/EmersonPolling/status/2... 📊 Tavern Research Poll, Michigan Senate Democratic Primary: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/... 📊 NY Times/Siena Poll, Ohio Governor Race: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2... 🎲 Ohio Governor Race, Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/govpartyoh... 🎲 Ohio Senate Race, Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/senateohs/... 📊 The Argument / Verasight Poll, "Who Are the Elites?": https://substack.com/@theargument/p-2... The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels, alongside Poll Director Mark Cunningham. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights  Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

  8. Jul 24

    Episode 9

    Welcome back to The Polling Alley! These front-runners have been leading by double-digits in the polls, but contenders try to catch up as primaries near. We break down three governor's races and whether their campaign strategy seems to hold up.  In this episode, we cover:  Is Marsha Blackburn's Tennessee lead actually collapsing? – Blackburn led John Rose by 53 points and Monty Fritz by 58 points in May. Recent polling has her rivals climbing into the teens, and her decision to play prevent defense could give them an opening. We break down whether Rose's establishment money or Fritz's grassroots online army has a real shot at closing the gap before early voting ends. In Florida, will Donalds' Blackburn-esque playbook work? – Byron Donalds holds a 5-point edge on Democrat David Jolly in general election polls, but first he has to win the nomination. James Fishback and Jay Collins are each pulling double digits and could split the anti-Donalds vote. We discuss Fishback's online-first campaign, Collins running on a DeSantis endorsement he doesn't actually have, and why a contested primary could push whoever wins further from the center. Wisconsin Democrats can't agree – Francesca Hong is sitting at roughly 75% on prediction markets while the party's moderate lane split between two candidates, one of which who already dropped out then was pulled back in. We analyze what a fractured primary means heading into November. POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Tennessee GOP primary internal poll, Blackburn - https://www.tennessean.com/story/news... 📊 TN GOP Primary, May 2026 Beacon Poll: https://tennsight.com/polls/may-2026/ 📊 Tennessee poll, Wick - https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/... 🎲 Polymarket odds, Tennessee GOP primary - https://polymarket.com/event/tennesse... 📊 Florida primary poll, Donalds - https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/2079... 🎲 Polymarket odds, Florida GOP primary - https://polymarket.com/event/republic... 📊 Wisconsin head-to-head polling - https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2079... 🎲 Kalshi odds, Wisconsin Democratic primary - https://polymarket.com/event/wisconsi... The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside host and Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on Facebook - @OvertonInsights Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Follow us on Youtube - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com

See All (16)

Ratings & Reviews

4.9
out of 5
24 Ratings

About

The Polling Alley, the Overton Insights podcast, breaks down the latest polling numbers nationwide, making sense of where voters stand on politics, policy, and so much more. Listen in if you're interested in what voters are really thinking as we uncover the public opinion trends shaping today's political landscape. Mark Cunningham, Overton Insights Poll Director and Olivia Michiels, Poll Analyst at Overton Insights, dive into insights about the latest poll numbers and trends.

Information

  • Creator
    Overton Insights
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    16
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2025
  • Show Website
    The Polling Alley