Shadow Markets: Dangers and Risks in Digital Systems

Dr Paul Watters
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Shadow Markets explores the parts of the digital world that rarely make headlines but have real consequences. From online crime and unsafe technologies to policy blind spots and design failures, each episode translates research into plain-language explanations of how digital systems shape everyday life. Bought to you by Cyberstronomy Pty Ltd. We work with private and public sector clients in government, law enforcement, banking and finance, education and R&D, to protect critical assets from cyber attacks through research and education.

Episodes

  1. JAN 18

    Episode 4 - Therapeutic and deterrent messages for CSAM desistance in Australia

    In this episode, we dive into a groundbreaking study exploring how online warning messages can interrupt pathways toward harmful and illegal sexual content. Using a controlled honeypot website and “barely legal” material as a research proxy, the investigators examined how young Australian men responded when confronted with different types of on‑screen notifications. The research tested two approaches: deterrence‑focused messages that emphasised the risk of law‑enforcement detection, and therapeutic messages that encouraged reflection and offered support for problematic viewing habits. Both strategies proved remarkably effective - nearly half of the participants chose not to continue to the target site after seeing a warning. The study also reveals that while simple text‑based alerts can strongly influence behaviour, adding images doesn’t necessarily strengthen the impact. The authors argue that these kinds of automated, low‑cost interventions could play a meaningful role in reducing engagement with illegal sexual material online. A thoughtful, evidence‑driven look at how digital design can shape safer online environments, as opposed to censorship, bans and other illiberal policy approaches.

    18 min

  2. JAN 8

    Episode 3 - Is Your Illicit Streaming Device Part of a Global Botnet?

    In this episode, we dive into the research behind a growing and largely invisible cyber risk: illicit streaming devices (ISDs) embedded in homes worldwide. Building on my recent research paper published on SSRN, this episode explores how low-cost Android-based streaming boxes - often marketed for free or cut-price access to premium content - create systemic cybersecurity, consumer safety, and national-scale risk. For years, researchers suspected these devices were being repurposed as residential proxies, surveillance nodes, and attack infrastructure. Now, the Kimwolf botnet provides the smoking gun. We examine how Kimwolf demonstrates, at scale, what the research warned about: Millions of compromised Android TV boxes and set-top devices quietly enrolled into a global botnetDevices abused as residential proxy endpoints, masking criminal activity behind ordinary householdsBotnet-driven DDoS attacks measured in tens of terabits per secondA supply chain problem where insecure firmware, abandoned updates, and grey-market distribution make remediation almost impossibleThis episode connects academic findings with real-world threat intelligence, showing how illicit streaming devices have evolved from copyright-infringing gadgets into critical cyber-risk infrastructure - often without the knowledge or consent of the people who plug them in. If you own a “fully-loaded” streaming box, work in cybersecurity, policy, law enforcement, or digital harm prevention - or simply want to understand how living-room devices are reshaping the global threat landscape - this episode explains why Kimwolf changes everything. Bought to you by Cyberstronomy Pty Ltd. We work with private and public sector clients in government, law enforcement, banking and finance, education and R&D, to protect critical assets from cyber attacks through research and education.

    15 min

  3. JAN 2

    Episode 2 - Blocking Pornography To Reduce Online Harm: A 20 Year Retrospective

    In this episode, The Digital Gatekeeper: Beyond the Keyword, we revisit a landmark 2004 study by Dr Paul Watters and Wai Han Ho and place its findings squarely inside today’s heated debates over internet freedom, censorship, and child protection. At a time when governments increasingly reach for blunt policy tools - such as platform-wide bans, age-gating mandates, and keyword-based filtering - the episode argues that these approaches repeat a long-standing technical failure: confusing content safety with content suppression. Drawing on empirical evidence, the episode shows how simplistic keyword blocking not only misses harmful material but also systematically overblocks legitimate political, medical, and social discourse. The episode explains how the 2004 research demonstrated that pornographic content has a measurable structural and statistical fingerprint - from image-to-link ratios and page connectivity to constrained vocabulary patterns - that can be identified with high accuracy using probabilistic (Bayesian) models. Crucially, this approach allows filters to be tuned for context: stricter in child-focused environments, and deliberately less biased where access to lawful speech matters. By contrasting “digital hammers” with probabilistic “scalpels,” the episode reframes contemporary policy debates. Rather than treating safety and freedom as mutually exclusive, it argues that intelligent, context-aware content analysis offers a path to protect children without collapsing into censorship. The episode closes with a warning that policy choices which ignore decades of technical evidence risk repeating the same mistakes - at greater scale and with greater harm to democratic access, education, and civil liberties. Bought to you by Cyberstronomy Pty Ltd. We work with private and public sector clients in government, law enforcement, banking and finance, education and R&D, to protect critical assets from cyber attacks through research and education.

    13 min

  4. 12/28/2025

    Episode 1 - Illicit Streaming Devices as Cyber Weapons - Evidence from Taiwan

    Illicit Streaming Devices (ISDs) are often marketed as low-cost alternatives for accessing pirated content, but emerging research shows they pose far more serious risks. In this episode of Shadow Markets, we summarise empirical findings from a study of ISDs circulating in Taiwan, examining how modified media players and their required third-party applications create significant cybersecurity exposure. Drawing on systematic testing, the research shows that a substantial proportion of applications used to operate these devices contain malicious code, including tools for data exfiltration, advertising fraud, and remote device control. Once deployed at scale, compromised ISDs can be recruited into botnets such as Mirai, effectively transforming private households into distributed infrastructure capable of supporting large-scale cyber attacks. The episode explores how these risks intersect with organised cybercrime, malware supply chains, and national-level security concerns. It concludes by outlining evidence-based mitigation strategies, including market controls, domain blocking, and consumer education, aimed at reducing the downstream harm created by high-risk, pirated hardware. Bought to you by Cyberstronomy Pty Ltd. We work with private and public sector clients in government, law enforcement, banking and finance, education and R&D, to protect critical assets from cyber attacks through research and education.

    15 min
  • 4 Episodes

About

Shadow Markets explores the parts of the digital world that rarely make headlines but have real consequences. From online crime and unsafe technologies to policy blind spots and design failures, each episode translates research into plain-language explanations of how digital systems shape everyday life. Bought to you by Cyberstronomy Pty Ltd. We work with private and public sector clients in government, law enforcement, banking and finance, education and R&D, to protect critical assets from cyber attacks through research and education.

Information

  • Creator
    Dr Paul Watters
  • Years Active
    2025 - 2026
  • Episodes
    4
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Shadow Markets: Dangers and Risks in Digital Systems