Not Investment Advice

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Weekly conversation with Ian, Eric, and Kevin on venture capital, startup, tech, economy, investing, market, and many more...

  1. Jun 15

    Everyone ’Got’ SpaceX. Almost Nobody Got It Directly.

    The biggest IPO in history is done. SpaceX went public Friday at a $1.77T valuation, ~4x oversubscribed, then popped ~19% on day one to a ~$2T close — minting ~4,000 millionaires. The chingus recorded on the eve of it and spent the night on the catch: most of the "I'm in SpaceX" crowd got there through SPVs stacked four and five layers deep. The same week, Jeff Bezos raises a $12B pre-seed at a $41B valuation for a company with no product, and Eric floats a dark theory about why VCs really wrote the check (hint: it's the logo, not the cap table). Plus: Coupang's record $409M data-breach fine and the bow that could've shrunk it, a Gemini-powered Siri nobody bought Apple for, SoftBank's $6B OpenAI margin loan getting told no, and Cloudflare's Matthew Prince naming Vinod Khosla on his way out. Three VCs, one mic, three opinions you won't hear at a fund meeting. Eric Bahn (Hustle Fund), Ian Park (ex-sovereign wealth fund), Kevin Jiang (Mangusta Capital). CHAPTERS 0:00 Hot chingu summer: SpaceX IPO eve 1:11 Why this isn't the top yet (Anthropic + OpenAI still to come) 3:49 The valuation arms race: from $1B to $1T outcomes 5:08 The K-shaped fund economy eating the middle 6:19 Nested SPVs and how everyone "got" SpaceX 9:21 Bezos raises a $12B pre-seed for Prometheus 15:11 Eric's dark theory: logo-stacking to impress LPs 18:58 Apple's Gemini-powered Siri (and who it's really for) 23:53 Coupang's record $409M data-breach fine 30:13 When a billionaire becomes soft power 35:41 SoftBank's $6B OpenAI margin loan stalls 41:50 Matthew Prince names Vinod Khosla 48:03 Sign-off: nothing here is investment advice

    50 min

  2. Jun 5

    Wall Street’s open. The redemption window isn’t.

    Money is doing two contradictory things at once this week. The front door is wide open: Anthropic filed its confidential S-1 ahead of OpenAI, SpaceX priced a $75 billion listing for June 12, and Masa Son is on CNBC calling AI “50x bigger” than the dot-com boom. The back door is bolted shut: Cliffwater could only return a third of what its LPs asked for, and Partners Group gated its flagship buyout fund and lost 17% of its market cap in a day. The chingus spent the episode pulling on that thread — plus why Ian thinks your next AI model lives on your laptop, not in the cloud. Let’s get into it.

    42 min

  3. May 25

    SpaceX IPO, Sam vs. Elon, Polymarket Ban, Anthropic Earnings

    Not Investment Advice

    43 min

  4. May 12

    SpaceX & Anthropic Deal, Cloudflare Layoff, Gamestop & eBay, and Sam Altman

    Join us as we dive into the spicy world of tech and business in this episode of the Three Commas Podcast! 🚀 In this episode, we discuss the latest drama surrounding OpenAI, Elon Musk's lawsuit, and the implications for the AI industry. We also explore GameStop's bold move to acquire eBay and what it means for the future of meme stocks. Key takeaways: * The fallout from Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and its impact on the tech landscape. * GameStop's surprising proposal to acquire eBay and the challenges ahead. * Insights into the evolving dynamics of the AI market and public perception. Timestamps: 00:00 Chingus — the new besties 02:27 Sam Altman's leaked texts to Mira Murati 08:42 Elon Musk is running both sides of the OpenAI story 13:30 Are OpenAI's products actually getting better? 15:25 SpaceX cuts a multi-year compute deal with Anthropic 19:53 Should xAI just pivot to hardware? 24:13 DeepSeek's $7B raise and the "Chinese discount" 26:33 Anthropic's 5D chess — from DoD risk-list to IPO 29:18 Cloudflare cuts 1,100 jobs and drops 24% 33:06 "We don't count you as an AI company" 34:43 OpenAI is the canary in the coal mine 35:38 GameStop's $56B bid for eBay 40:29 The unprepped bro CEO archetype 46:30 Sign off (chingu, hippo poop, see you next week) What's your take on the latest tech drama? Drop your thoughts in the comments! Subscribe for weekly insights and analysis on the latest in tech and business! #ThreeCommasPodcast #TechNews #BusinessTrends

    48 min

  5. May 3

    AI just blew up a $5.7B PE deal

    Three VCs, one mic, three opinions you won’t hear at a fund meeting. Hosted by Eric, Ian, and Kevin. ---------------------------------------- Toma Bravo just handed Medallia to its creditors and ate an estimated $5.7 billion in equity value — the largest LBO write-off since 2008. The story sounds like a one-firm miscalculation, but underneath it is something bigger: AI is starting to reprice every SaaS multiple anyone underwrote in 2021. We also got into Beijing forcing the unwind of a $2B Meta deal after the money had already wired, the Powell succession drama, and why Ian thinks Middle Eastern LP capital calls are a flight risk.

    55 min

  6. Apr 28

    Cursor for $60B, Tesla’s Lie, and FTX’s Lost Empire

    This week, Sam Bankman-Fried tweeted from prison about the FTX portfolio he could have held — Anthropic, SpaceX, Cursor, Solana, Robinhood — and the boys spent half the episode doing the math on what might have been the greatest VC fund ever assembled by an alleged fraudster. Meanwhile, Elon quietly admitted that 4 million Tesla owners were lied to about Full Self-Driving, SpaceX put a $60 billion option on Cursor, and Apple picked a CEO who has literally never made a LinkedIn post. Recorded at 9:30pm Pacific from three time zones, two hemispheres, and one very tired Papa Eric.

    58 min

  7. Apr 13

    Anthropic Just Lapped OpenAI and Nobody’s Chill

    EP2: Three Commas Podcast 00:00 Intro — Disneyland, Tequila Brands & The AI Editorial Bot 02:35 Anthropic Passes OpenAI: $30B ARR — Can You Trust the Numbers? 11:56 Claude Mythos Finds 27-Year-Old Bugs — Groundbreaking AI or Just Great PR? 18:06 Meta Mu Spark Launches to Crickets — What Went Wrong 32:00 The SaaS-pocalypse: Multiples Down 70% & Ian Built 25 Tools for $200 39:09 OpenAI's Dumpster Fire: New Yorker Profile + C-Suite Exodus 51:47 Outro — Is OpenAI SoftBank's Uber or WeWork?

    55 min

  8. Mar 31

    Is JP Morgan Selling Insurance Against the AI Bubble?

    00:00 - Intro & weekly roundup 01:07 - Uber invests $1.25B in Rivian for robotaxis 04:17 - Ian: why he stopped caring about cars 06:15 - SpaceX IPO — no lockups, biggest offering ever? 09:28 - Google's TurboQuant: the "Middle Out" compression breakthrough 14:10 - Helium, the Middle East war, and chip supply chains 16:03 - Apple opens Siri to Claude, GPT, and all AI models 18:51 - Kevin: Apple hasn't truly innovated since Steve Jobs 19:48 - Ian's Vision Pro confession (he uses it in bed) 23:04 - JP Morgan launches AI credit default swaps — Big Short vibes 26:41 - OpenAI kills Sora and walks away from a $1B Disney deal 29:35 - Is consumer AI cooked? 34:51 - Claude Mythos leak — is Anthropic about to IPO? 38:16 - SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic: will these IPOs open the floodgates? 42:35 - Manus, China, and what happens when you don't mess with the CCP 49:48 - The podcast is getting a new name — submit your suggestions

    51 min
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Weekly conversation with Ian, Eric, and Kevin on venture capital, startup, tech, economy, investing, market, and many more...

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