The Spillover

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Every geopolitical event — a war, an election, a new tariff, a technological breakthrough — sends ripples through the global economy. On The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and her guests trace those ripples, examining how international developments shape markets, policy, finance, and the future of business.

  1. 1h ago

    Transactional U.S. Foreign Policy + Who Are America’s Friends Now?

    The Trump administration is pursuing a transactional style of U.S. foreign policy, leaving friends and adversaries uncertain about what Washington wants. This week on The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and Jim Steinberg, dean of SAIS at Johns Hopkins University, unpack how Washington’s deal-making approach is playing out in Ukraine, Taiwan, AI governance, and the Iran war, and what could replace the U.S.-led global order that has persisted for the past eighty years.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   James Steinberg, Dean of the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University   Mentioned on the Episode:   Stephen Sestanovich, “Trump’s ‘Diesel Deal’ With Russia Was Just the Start,” CFR.org   Thomas Graham “Trump’s Putin Overtures Deserve Criticism. But Outrage Won’t End the Ukraine War.,” CFR.org   Liana Fix and Daniel Fiott, “Europe’s Defense Dilemma,” CFR.org   Michael Froman, “The Victory of Asymmetry in the Iran War,” CFR.org   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

  2. Oct 22

    Brazil’s Runoff Election Is a Close Race Between Lula and Bolsonaro

    Brazil’s runoff is a dead heat, but markets are betting that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will win and finally rein in the country’s debt. This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and CFR Senior Vice President Shannon O’Neil unpack why voters and investors want different things from Brazil’s leadership, and what this election could signal for Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and the region at large.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Shannon K. O’Neil, Senior Vice President of Studies and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Angela Pinho, “20% say violence is the country's main problem, and 18% cite health, Datafolha points out,” Diario de Comercio   Adam B. Ellick, “Online Gambling and Crushing Debt Are Transforming Brazil,” New York Times   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

  3. Oct 15

    Lame Ducks, Black Swans, and the 2026 Midterm Elections

    With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session. They warn that a 2011-style standoff could unfold if political brinkmanship and a lack of serious effort to stabilize the country’s debt trajectory continue.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Henrietta Treyz, Co-Founder and Director of Economic Policy, Veda   Mentioned on the Episode:   “Direct Government Payments to U.S. Farm Producers, 2022–26F,” Economic Research Service USDA   Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory, “Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI,” The Anthropic Institute   Pavan Acharya and Catherine Allen, “Here’s Why Republicans Are Worrying About High Gas Prices Ahead of the Midterms,” Politico   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

  4. Oct 7

    What We Got Right (and Wrong) This Year

    This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” economies, OpenAI’s funding crisis, the AI IPO race, the Iran war, and more.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

  5. Oct 1

    Central Banks in a Bind + Could AI Replace the FOMC?

    This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve on inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces, and the role of AI in monetary policymaking.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics   Mentioned on the Episode:   Adam S. Posen, “China Still Has What America Needs,” Foreign Affairs   Adam S. Posen, “Strategic Direction for Europe in the New Economic Geography,” Intereconomics   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

  6. Sep 25

    Why Won’t Europe Do More For Ukraine? + The Rise of Pro-Russia Populism

    This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the escalating geopolitical headwinds the region faces.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize–winning author; staff writer, The Atlantic; Senior Fellow, Johns Hopkins University   Mentioned on the Episode:   Anne Applebaum, “MAGA Is Making the World Safe for Corruption,” The Atlantic   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

  7. Sep 14

    Nvidia Bets Big on Hugging Face + Sebastian Sashimi + AI-Powered Toothbrushes

    This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle between two visions of how the AI industry will develop, as well as concerns about safety and oligopoly.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Aditya Soni, Anhata Rooprai, and Harshita Mary Varghese, “Nvidia Bets $13 Billion on Open AI Models With Hugging Face Deal,” Reuters   Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

  8. Sep 10

    Can the U.S. ‘Grow’ Its Way Out of Debt? + Taxing Wealth in the Age of AI

    This week, host Rebecca Patterson speaks with Natasha Sarin, law professor and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, to unpack Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s claim that the United States can grow its way out of record debt, and whether AI can deliver the growth, jobs, and tax revenue needed to make that happen.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Natasha Sarin, Professor of Law and Cofounder, The Yale Budget Lab   Mentioned on the Episode:   Natasha Sarin, “No Wonder Everyone’s Rallying Around This Terrible Idea,” New York Times   “Scott Bessent Says US Can ‘Grow Our Way Out’ of $40 Trillion Debt—Economist Says ‘Not Feasible’,” TradingView   “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036,” Congressional Budget Office   Rebecca Patterson, “What the Treasury’s Buyback Surprise Says About the Bond Market,” CFR.org   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

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Every geopolitical event — a war, an election, a new tariff, a technological breakthrough — sends ripples through the global economy. On The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and her guests trace those ripples, examining how international developments shape markets, policy, finance, and the future of business.

Information

  • Channel
    CFR
  • Creator
    Council on Foreign Relations
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    41
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2026 All rights reserved.
  • Show Website
    The Spillover

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