Inside Prediction Markets

Prediction Market Gurus
  • 5.0 (3)
  • Investing

Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

  1. 4d ago

    Inside a Fully Manual Prediction Market Strategy: Where Human Judgment Finds an Edge

    This week, Chris and Henry welcome trader Clay Alter to discuss his move from sportsbooks to live trading on Kalshi and Polymarket US. Clay breaks down his hands-on approach to market making, how he managed first-touchdown orders between plays and why late-game situations remain some of his strongest opportunities. Plus: a $60,000 losing week, building trading tools with AI and why Clay continues to rely on experience rather than a formal pricing model.

  2. Oct 21

    Trading Elections: Separating Narratives From Numbers

    This week, Polymarket’s CEO allegedly used company funds to fly private, Matt Downs’ created a game lines analysis on X and we observe flat PM volume week over week. Then, we get into trading politics on prediction markets. We talk all things Nate Silver and go through past elections we’ve traded and how to properly navigate political numbers.

  3. Oct 14

    Finding Success in NBA Trading: From Top-Down to Modeling

    This week, Seth, aka @Soarin22 on X, joins us to share how he went from an actuary to a full-time NBA trader and built a one-man trading operation with roughly $2 million in profits on Kalshi. We unpack his shift from top-down betting to building his own NBA model, why execution matters as much as pricing and how he’s automated 90–95% of his trading system. We also go through his NBA takes from this season and his thoughts on the NFL so far.

  4. Oct 7

    Novig Climbs to #1 in Sports: What’s Behind the Downloads?

    This week, we discuss the CFTC’s potential collaboration with the SEC, Novig’s climb to #1 in the App Store’s sports category and prediction markets’ growth as the NFL season unfolds. Then, we get into what bettors actually want: what makes someone choose a sportsbook over a prediction market, how app design shapes that choice and why a simpler experience might matter more than better odds.

  5. Sep 30

    NFL Hype vs. Reality: Which Quarterbacks Are Worth Backing?

    This week, @ssigsbee had his first losing month, Kalshi’s allowing margin trading and Novig hit $100 million in a single day! Then, we get into Survivor and Chris’ observations so far. We finish up with our NFL takes from the past few weeks: Deshaun Watson isn’t that bad, Ben Johnson’s not getting enough credit, the Rams are not a top 5 team and JJ McCarthy & Drake Maye markets.

  6. Sep 23

    Turning $100 to $1M on Prediction Markets: How to Build a Winning Operation

    Our guest this week, @evenstevengg on X, started sports betting in 2022 with $100 on a sportsbook. Now he hasn't placed a sportsbook bet in months. We talk about why he went all-in on prediction markets: the proposed 90% gambling-loss deduction rule, week-long withdrawals vs. next-day payouts on PMs and why offshore books are in a "slow death." Plus how he turned a rough first month on PMs into one of the best runs of his career, and the $35K NASCAR mistake along the way.

  7. Sep 16

    CFB vs. NFL Kickoff Weekend: Where the Real Volume Showed Up

    Football is back! This week we discuss Pinnacle’s statement on X, FanDuel’s market making on Kalshi and where the vig gets applied differently depending on how competitive a given market is. We describe our necessities in an odds screen and the tools we've built to track line history, fills and exchange flow in real time. Then we get into a big slate of football. College football week 2 delivered. Huge volume across the board, tight spreads, and deep liquidity on marquee matchups like Michigan–Oklahoma and Texas–Ohio State. On the NFL side, we open with the Chiefs–Broncos Monday night line and from there it's a full Week 1 recap: Myles Garrett landing on IR, Lions–Bills predictions for Thursday, the Giants' win over the Cowboys, the Jets sitting tied for first in their division, and a rough opening week for a couple of last year's MVP-caliber quarterbacks.

  8. Sep 9

    Week 1 NFL Picks, Power Rankings & Why This Pro Bettor Is All-In on the L.A. Rams

    This week, pro sports bettor Rob Pizzola (X: @robpizzola) joins us to break down Week 1 NFL matchups. He walks us through his background, his automated closing-line-driven betting process and how prediction market liquidity is reshaping sportsbook limits heading into the season. From there we dig into Seahawks-Patriots (and the safety injuries moving that line) and the travel-schedule twist in Rams-49ers, plus his take on Aaron Donald. To close it out, Rob answers reader questions, including his pick for a 5-year quarterback rebuild, his take on the Lane Kiffin bonus-hedge story and the 2 teams he'd price differently in the NFL power rankings.

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Ratings & Reviews

5
out of 5
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About

Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets. 📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 📈 Market Deep Dives 🎙️ Expert Guests 🧠 Strategy Analysis This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Information

  • Creator
    Prediction Market Gurus
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    35
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Prediction Market Gurus
  • Show Website
    Inside Prediction Markets

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