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  1. 14h ago

    Could Data Centers Pay Their Own Way? Bagehot vs Hamilton

    Samuel Johnson: Good evening, and welcome to the sixth and final bout. For five evenings we have asked who pays. Tonight we ask the question this whole series was built on. If the law treated a data center like a plain warehouse, could it still make money? I am Samuel Johnson, and I have been looking forward to this, sir, because tonight there is a ledger. Niccolo Machiavelli: The Doctor loves a ledger because it is the only document that cannot be accused of being a Whig. Samuel Johnson: In the near corner stands Walter Bagehot, for seventeen years the editor of The Economist, and an Englishman who explained the money market to the very men who run it. He wrote that John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand two per cent. Somebody fetch Boswell, for I am about to cheer for a journalist. Niccolo Machiavelli: And in the far corner stands my man, Alexander Hamilton, first Secretary of the Treasury, who built a nation on borrowed money and was then shot by a sitting vice president. I have applied for a position at his Treasury. I await his reply. Samuel Johnson: My Dictionary has a word for the men who live on the ups and downs of grand ventures. A stockjobber, sir, is a low wretch who gets money by buying and selling shares in the funds. Niccolo Machiavelli: In chapter twenty five of The Prince, I wrote that fortune is like a flooding river, and wise men build their dykes in calm weather. Hamilton builds dykes. The Doctor stands on the bank and defines the water. Samuel Johnson: Sir, the water deserves a definition, and nobody else is going to give it one. Niccolo Machiavelli: That is the truest thing you have said in six episodes, Doctor. Samuel Johnson: Walter Bagehot, Alexander Hamilton, the floor is yours for the last time, gentlemen. Leave the ledger in better order than you found it. Niccolo Machiavelli: Mister Hamilton, borrow the floor, and promise to pay it back later. Walter Bagehot: Thank you, Doctor Johnson. I say a business that cannot pay for its own electricity is not an industry. It is a mood. Alexander Hamilton: Thank you, Signor Machiavelli, and no, there is no position at the Treasury. I say no great industry in history ever paid its own way at the start. Walter Bagehot: Mister Hamilton has never met a subsidy he could not describe as nation building. Alexander Hamilton: Mister Bagehot has never built anything larger than a magazine, and he would like a medal for it. Walter Bagehot: This conversation is brought to you by PhilosophersTalk.com, where thinkers discuss! Alexander Hamilton: Created by AITalkerApp.com, create your own animated conversations. Link in the description! Walter Bagehot: I am Walter Bagehot, editor of The Economist for seventeen years and author of Lombard Street. I spent my career watching Englishmen lose fortunes on railways, canals and other things that would certainly change the world. Some of them did change the world. Most of the investors went broke anyway. Tonight I have been handed a ledger, and I intend to read it aloud, slowly, to a man who would prefer I did not. Alexander Hamilton: And I am Alexander Hamilton, first Secretary of the Treasury. I funded a bankrupt nation’s debts, founded its national bank, and in 1791 sent Congress a Report on Manufactures arguing that a young country must deliberately encourage its industries. I have been lectured on finance by Thomas Jefferson, who could not balance a household account. I can certainly survive Mister Bagehot. Walter Bagehot: Then here is the question of this whole series. Suppose a data center may draw from the grid only what a warehouse of the same size would draw. It may take from the city main and the aquifer only what a warehouse would take. And it gets no tax break written for its industry alone. Could it still make money? Take a large campus for artificial intelligence, counted per megawatt per year. The industry says it earns ten to twelve million dollars. One independent model puts the full cost at about eight and a half million, most of it the chips. That leaves a margin of one and a half to three and a half million. Alexander Hamilton: Get on with it, sir, I can hear the abacus warming up. Walter Bagehot: Now make it pay its own way, by my own arithmetic, which I invite anyone to check. Making its own power from gas costs more than buying from the grid, perhaps one hundred thousand to six hundred fifty thousand dollars a megawatt. Cooling without water adds perhaps fifty thousand to three hundred thousand. Paying sales tax on the servers like any grocer adds another three to four hundred fifty thousand. Property tax at the full rate, up to three hundred thousand more. All in, from under half a million to one point seven million. On the best campus it is a dent. In the middle it is forty percent of the margin. At the worst it is all of it. Alexander Hamilton: Then your own ledger acquits them, sir! On the best campuses it is a dent. You have just proven my industry can bear the weight, and you are calling it an indictment. Walter Bagehot: I have proven the best of them can bear it, which is a very different thing. The older buildings that rent space to many customers earn perhaps two to three million a megawatt, and the same bill eats a ten percent return at the middle of the range. The ones inside cities cannot build a power plant in the car park. The rule does not kill the industry, Mister Hamilton. It sorts it. Alexander Hamilton: Sorted by whom, Mister Bagehot? By a man with a spreadsheet in London? Walter Bagehot: Sorted by the customers, which is far worse for you. And then there is Ohio. When one utility required data centers to pay for eighty five percent of the power they reserved, for up to twelve years, its forecast of new demand fell from thirty thousand megawatts to about fifty seven hundred. Four fifths of the boom disappeared the moment it was asked to sign. The rule does not destroy the industry. It destroys the mania. Alexander Hamilton: That is very tidy, Mister Bagehot, and very English. In my Report I warned that the established nations would never allow an infant industry to grow up in peace. I recommended bounties, paid openly, so the young enterprise could survive its first winters. Every great American undertaking was helped at the start. Your warehouse rule would have strangled every one of them in its cradle, and this industry is racing the entire world. Walter Bagehot: Your Report produced a company town at the Great Falls in Paterson, New Jersey, with a handsome charter and grand plans. Within a few years the factory had stopped. Paterson recovered beautifully, and later gave the world William Graham Sumner, which I count as a second failure. Alexander Hamilton: You sit in London with your clubs and your coffee and lecture a nation you never had to build. Walter Bagehot: Spoken like a true aristocrat, Mister Hamilton. Alexander Hamilton: Do not call me an aristocrat, sir! I came to this continent an orphan from Nevis with nothing but a clerk’s pen and a ship’s ticket. Every dollar of credit this country has, I built from a pile of unpaid debts. I will not be called an elitist by a man who married the daughter of the owner of his own magazine! Walter Bagehot: That one landed, I admit, and I shall score it to you. Now let me state your case properly, purely so that I may take it apart in the right order. You say a new industry faces costs at the start that it will never face again. You say a nation that waits for an industry to prove itself is overtaken by nations that did not wait. You say the help is repaid many times over in taxes, as Loudoun County collects one point two billion dollars a year from its data centers. That is a serious argument, and I have made it sound considerably calmer than you do. Alexander Hamilton: Adequately put. And yours, in fewer words. A cost that is hidden is a cost nobody counts. An industry that needs a gift has not proved it deserves one. And a boom that cannot survive a contract is a bubble with a press office. Fine. Here is where you are wrong. Walter Bagehot: Where am I wrong, then? I am all attention. Alexander Hamilton: I wrote that bounties should be paid in the open, voted by the legislature, visible in the public accounts, so every citizen knows what is spent and why. What I would never defend is a subsidy hidden in a widow’s electric bill, or buried in a sealed contract, or slipped through a capacity market where nobody can find it. If the nation wants these buildings, let Congress vote a bounty in daylight and put its name to it. Walter Bagehot: That is the most sensible thing an American has said in six episodes, and I suspect the Doctor will faint. Alexander Hamilton: Then let me be equally fair about your rule, since you will not be. Why a warehouse? Bentham asked it and nobody answered. A steel mill draws more than a warehouse, and so does a hospital. And your rule makes every campus build its own gas plant, which puts the turbines next to the neighbors, as Bismarck said. You have not made them pay. You have made them smoke locally. Walter Bagehot: I concede it, and gladly. The warehouse is a crude yardstick. The honest rule is not be a warehouse. It is pay what you cost. Pay the full price of the grid you strain, the water you evaporate, the air you foul and the land you need. Then let them build wherever they like. Alexander Hamilton: Go on, sir, you are conceding things and I am enjoying it. Walter Bagehot: And I will concede what I cannot see. The ten to twelve million a megawatt is the industry’s own figure, and the real contracts are sealed. If the true revenue is ten and not twelve, the costliest campus is under water. The chips wear out in about five years, and the power line lasts thirty. Somebody holds the remainder, and nobody will tell me who. Alexander Hamilton: Then we agree that they can pay. We disagree about whether a nation should help them. Walter Bagehot: We agree that they can pay,

    Could Data Centers Pay Their Own Way? Bagehot vs Hamilton

  2. 3d ago

    Tax the Land or Sign a Contract? George vs Sumner on Data Centers

    Samuel Johnson: Good evening, and welcome to bout five of six, the rematch. Tonight everyone agrees who is being robbed, and the only question is what to do about it. I am Samuel Johnson, and I am obliged this evening to watch two Americans, which is twice my usual allowance. Niccolo Machiavelli: The Doctor once called the Americans a race of convicts, so tonight he is attending a parole hearing. Samuel Johnson: Sir! In the near corner, returning from bout one, stands Henry George, the gentle printer who would collect the rent of the whole earth for the public purse. I find him kind, I find him sincere, and I find him dangerous. As I once told Boswell, your levellers wish to level down as far as themselves, but they cannot bear levelling up to themselves. Niccolo Machiavelli: And in the far corner, returning from bout two, stands William Graham Sumner, who would let nobody have anything from the public purse at all. I promised to back whichever man fights dirtier, and I have money on the professor. Samuel Johnson: Both men despise the subsidy. Georgia forgives its data centers two and a half billion dollars a year, and neither man would forgive them a penny. Tonight they discover how much they despise each other’s cure. Niccolo Machiavelli: In The Prince I advised that what belongs neither to you nor to your subjects, you may give away freely. Every governor in America has followed that chapter, Doctor, and not one has credited me. Samuel Johnson: That is not advice, sir. That is a confession on behalf of the entire profession. Niccolo Machiavelli: It is chapter sixteen, and it has paid for more ribbon cuttings than any book ever printed. Samuel Johnson: Mister George, Professor Sumner, the floor is yours, gentlemen. Somebody fetch Boswell, for I expect blood. Niccolo Machiavelli: Professor, aim low and keep moving. Henry George: Thank you, Doctor Johnson, though I have never levelled anyone in my life. I say the cure is to charge full rent for what no man made, and to tax nothing that any man did make. William Graham Sumner: Thank you, Signor Machiavelli, but I do not aim low, I aim accurately. I say the cure is to give nothing, regulate nothing, and make every man sign his own bill. Henry George: The Professor would protect the Forgotten Man by forgetting him a second time. William Graham Sumner: Mister George would rescue the taxpayer by making the government his landlord. Henry George: This conversation is brought to you by PhilosophersTalk.com, where thinkers discuss! William Graham Sumner: Created by AITalkerApp.com, create your own animated conversations. Link in the description! Henry George: Friends, the Professor and I have each been on this program before, and we agree on a great deal. Neither of us would give a data center a favor that is denied to the grocer. Neither of us would send a ratepayer the bill for another man’s power line. So tonight is not about whether there has been a robbery. It is about what to do with the burglar, and on that, I fear, the Professor and I are about to become very unfriendly. William Graham Sumner: We agree on the robbery, and I am obliged to him for that much. I spent my life saying that A and B may not pass a law to make C pay for X. I said it about tariffs, and I say it about data centers. But where Mister George sees a public treasure being stolen, I see a public treasury about to be enlarged. He does not want to end the jobbery. He wants to own it. Henry George: Then let me show you what I want to own. Watch what happens to land the moment a data center is zoned on it. In Loudoun County, Virginia, parcels zoned for data centers sell for two to three million dollars an acre. In Hillsboro, Oregon, an appraiser said a winery’s value was not based on grape production. It was based on what a data center would pay for the same acres. The farmer did nothing. The vines did nothing. The value came from the wires, the water mains, the highways and the people, all of them public. Tax that value in full, and you need not tax the machines, the wages, or the grocer at all. William Graham Sumner: Two to three million dollars an acre, and Mister George would take nearly all of it. The farmer who held his land for forty years and sells at last finds the state at the closing table with its hand out. You call it rent. He calls it his retirement. Henry George: If he bought at the price of a pasture and sells at the price of a server farm, the difference was handed to him by the public, and I would collect it from him gently. But do not tell the audience I would drive the data centers away. A tax on land cannot drive anyone away, because the land cannot leave. That is the beauty of it, Professor. The data center can move to Ohio. Loudoun County cannot. William Graham Sumner: That was nearly a good point, and I will return to it. Henry George: Let me first state the Professor’s case, since he states it so poorly himself. He says every favor the state can grant becomes a prize that men will lobby to win. He says a commission set up to protect the public will soon be captured by the companies it regulates. He says the only rule that cannot be bought is a contract both sides have signed. And he points to Ohio, where one demand to pay for eighty five percent of reserved power for twelve years made four fifths of the forecast vanish. That is a strong argument, and I have put it better than he did. William Graham Sumner: You put it adequately, which from me is a compliment. Henry George: Now the flaw. The Professor’s contract was written by a monopoly utility that holds an exclusive franchise from the state, under a tariff approved by a public commission. His free market is a regulated monopoly charging a price the state allowed. He has not escaped the state, Professor. He has only asked it to be stricter. And his contract does nothing for the man downwind. A family breathing a power plant’s smoke never signed anything. You cannot sign a contract with ten thousand pairs of lungs. William Graham Sumner: The first part is true, and I dislike it intensely. The utility is a monopoly, and the contract is only as honest as the commission behind it. The second part I concede as well. The law of contract cannot reach a man who never came to the table. For him there is the law of nuisance and the courts, which are slow, and I will not pretend they are fast. Henry George: Thank you, Professor. That is the most generous thing you have ever said, and it was a confession. William Graham Sumner: And now, as I promised, your point about Ohio. You say the land cannot leave, and that is true. But its value can. Tax the Loudoun acre in full, and the next data center goes to the cheaper county. The Loudoun acre falls back toward the price of a pasture, and your rent fund falls with it. You have built your treasury on a boom. Henry George: Then the rent falls, and the tax falls with it, and the farmer pays less. It is the only tax in the world that shrinks when the owner’s luck runs out. Your Ohio exemption, Professor, came in at twelve times its forecast, and nobody in Columbus sent the taxpayer a refund. William Graham Sumner: Now Mister George’s case, stated properly, which I do only because the audience deserves to see what they would be voting for. He says some things no man made, the ground, the river, and the right of way. He says their value comes from the whole community, so the community should collect it. He says the grid and the water main are natural monopolies, so the public should own them outright, the nation the lines and the city the water. It is coherent, and it is sincere, and here is the trouble with it. Henry George: Go on, Professor, I am bracing myself for the trouble. William Graham Sumner: The men who would own the grid for the public are the very governors who just gave away two and a half billion dollars a year. You would hand the reins to the horse thief and call it reform. Henry George: And you would leave the horse in the thief’s barn and call it liberty! William Graham Sumner: I would leave it in no barn at all. I would make the man who wants the horse pay for the horse, at a price he agreed to, in a contract he signed, before he ever rode it out of town. Henry George: Then answer me this, Professor, and I ask it gently. When the data center draws three million gallons a day from an aquifer, from whom does it buy the water? Nobody owns the aquifer. Your contract needs a seller, and there is none, so the company takes it free. My rent supplies the seller. The community owns the water and sends the bill. William Graham Sumner: And who sets the price? An assessor. Your single tax would make the assessor the most powerful man in America, and he would be bought by Tuesday. Henry George: I will admit what I cannot tell you. Nobody knows what an aquifer is worth, because nobody has been made to publish what is drawn from it. The assessor would be guessing at first. But a public assessor can at least be wrong in public, which is more than a sealed contract can say. William Graham Sumner: And I will admit the same about my contracts. They are sealed. I am defending a document I have never been allowed to read. Henry George: Then we are two honest men arguing in the dark, and I would rather light a lamp than sign in it! William Graham Sumner: YOUR LAMP IS A TAX COLLECTOR! Henry George: YOUR CONTRACT IS A MONOPOLY WITH MANNERS! William Graham Sumner: CONFISCATION! Henry George: RENT! William Graham Sumner: THE ASSESSOR WILL BE BOUGHT! Henry George: THE COMMISSION ALREADY WAS! William Graham Sumner: SOCIALIST! Henry George: I AM NOTHING OF THE KIND! William Graham Sumner: LANDLORD OF AMERICA! Henry George: UNDERTAKER OF THE FORGOTTEN MAN! William Graham Sumner: SENTIMENTALIST! Henry George: If you have enjoyed this, please do like and subscribe, and forgive me for raising my voice. I had not done that since the Governor. The Professor is an honest man who has spent h

    Tax the Land or Sign a Contract? George vs Sumner on Data Centers

  3. Oct 20

    Can They Take Your Farm for a Data Center? Blackstone vs Bismarck

    Samuel Johnson: Good evening, and welcome to bout four of six. Tonight we ask whether a man’s farm may be taken for a power line that serves a private customer. I am Samuel Johnson, and for once I am entirely comfortable. Niccolo Machiavelli: The Doctor is comfortable because one of tonight’s men is an English lawyer and the other is a Prussian. Samuel Johnson: Sir, in the near corner stands Sir William Blackstone, whose Commentaries taught the law of England to half the world. He holds that the law will not permit the least violation of private property, not even for the general good. Somebody fetch Boswell, for I intend to agree with a lawyer on the record. Niccolo Machiavelli: And in the far corner stands my man, Otto von Bismarck, who unified Germany with iron and blood and then bought up the railways. I have already written to him about a position. Samuel Johnson: You wrote to the Medici about a position too, and dedicated an entire book to them. Niccolo Machiavelli: And none of them read it, Doctor, which is why I am still available. Samuel Johnson: Consider the stakes. In Georgia, Maryland, Virginia, Indiana and Pennsylvania, utilities are taking or threatening to take land for new power lines. By their own figures, most of the new capacity serves data centers. In Maryland the landowners call their state an extension cord for Virginia. Niccolo Machiavelli: In The Prince I warned that men forget the death of their father sooner than the loss of their patrimony. Take a man’s land, my friends, and he will remember it at your funeral. Samuel Johnson: That is the first wise thing you have ever said, and I resent it. Niccolo Machiavelli: It is chapter seventeen, Doctor, and it has never once been wrong. Samuel Johnson: Sir William Blackstone, Prince Otto von Bismarck, the floor is yours, gentlemen. Do not take any more of it than you need. Niccolo Machiavelli: Prince Bismarck, take all of it, and send the Doctor the bill. William Blackstone: Thank you, Doctor Johnson. I say the law will not take a man’s field for the convenience of his neighbor’s machine. Otto von Bismarck: Thank you, Signor Machiavelli, I received your letter and I am still laughing. I say a nation that cannot run a wire across a cow pasture will not keep its lights on. William Blackstone: The Prince believes a farmer’s deed is a suggestion written in pencil. Otto von Bismarck: Sir William believes the law is perfect because he is the one who wrote it down. William Blackstone: This conversation is brought to you by PhilosophersTalk.com, where thinkers discuss! Otto von Bismarck: Created by AITalkerApp.com, create your own animated conversations. Link in the description! William Blackstone: I am Sir William Blackstone, author of the Commentaries on the Laws of England and a judge of the Court of Common Pleas. I described property as that sole and despotic dominion which one man claims over the external things of the world, in total exclusion of the right of any other individual in the universe. And I wrote that the regard of the law for private property is so great that it will not authorize the least violation of it, no, not even for the general good of the whole community. I said it in four volumes, and I meant every page. Otto von Bismarck: And I am Otto von Bismarck, first chancellor of the German Empire. I told my parliament that the great questions of the day are not decided by speeches and majority decisions, but by iron and blood. When the private railways of Prussia served their shareholders better than they served the state, I bought them. I have read Sir William’s four volumes. They are very beautiful. I used two of them to level a table. William Blackstone: Then let me read the Prince something shorter. In at least five American states, utilities are using or threatening compulsory purchase to build new high voltage lines. By the utilities’ own figures, seventy to eighty percent of the new capacity will serve data centers. In Georgia a utility proposes a thousand miles of new lines, and a woman says her childhood home is being taken. The utility declines to name the customers. In Maryland a company sued landowners merely to survey their fields for a line meant chiefly to serve the technology corridor in Virginia. That is not a public road, sir. That is a private driveway with a public permit. Otto von Bismarck: The Georgia utility says it uses compulsion in fewer than one transaction in a hundred. The rest of the farmers sell. And the law you are weeping over, Sir William, is your own law. Every American state lets a utility take an easement for a public line, with compensation. The courts usually allow it. You should be proud. Your grandchildren have learned the lesson perfectly. William Blackstone: Usually, Prince, but not always, and not forever. After the American Supreme Court allowed a city to take homes for a private development in 2005, forty five states passed laws to narrow the power. A line built chiefly for one private customer is the very case those laws were written against. And a farmer who sells with a court order in the next room has not sold. He has surrendered politely. Otto von Bismarck: Now I will state Sir William’s case, which I do only so that I may bury it with full honors. He says property is a wall, not a fence with a gate. He says the man inside it owes his neighbor nothing he has not agreed to give. He says that once the state may take for one good cause, it will soon discover a great many good causes. It is a noble argument, and it is printed on very good paper. William Blackstone: That was handsomely put, and quite nearly accurate, Prince. Otto von Bismarck: And here is the burial. Sir William wrote one more sentence that he does not like to read aloud. He said the legislature may compel a man to sell his land, not by stripping him in an arbitrary manner, but by giving him a full indemnification and equivalent for the injury. So the great defender of property allowed the taking all along. He only argued about the price. Sir William, you are not a wall. You are a cashier. William Blackstone: That passage is mine, and I will not disown it. But it carries three conditions, and the Prince has read none of them. It must be the legislature that compels, not a private company carrying a franchise in its pocket. It must be a full equivalent, not the price of a pasture before the wire arrived. And it must be for the public. A wire to one unnamed customer is not the public. Otto von Bismarck: Now you have me, and I admit it with pleasure, because I would have said the same. When I wanted the railways, I did not lend a private company the sword of the state. I bought the railways for the state. If a line is truly public, let the public own it. If it serves one company, let the company buy the land like any other customer, at whatever the farmer asks. And I would want the customer’s name. A minister who signs a taking without knowing who it is for is a clerk, not a statesman. William Blackstone: Then we agree on the case before us, which alarms me considerably. Otto von Bismarck: Do not worry, Sir William. We shall disagree again within the minute. William Blackstone: Then consider what the farmer is paid. In Pennsylvania, farm advocates say landowners in the path of a data center line ought to be compensated more fully than they are. The court pays him the market value of a pasture. It does not pay him for the forty years he meant to farm it, or the house his grandfather built, or the view he must now share with a steel tower. Otto von Bismarck: Then pay him more, and I will not object. I am happy to pay a farmer handsomely. I object to one stubborn farmer holding a whole province hostage for the price of a lighthouse. Somewhere between the price of a pasture and a ransom there is a fair number, and a competent state can find it. William Blackstone: A competent state, Prince, is the rarest creature in your entire argument. Otto von Bismarck: I built one, Sir William, and I am told it was very competent indeed. William Blackstone: Here is where your rule leads, Prince. Under the warehouse rule there is no great line to build. The data center makes its own power on its own land, and my farmer keeps his field. Otto von Bismarck: And your farmer gets a gas turbine over his fence instead, and very likely a gas pipeline across his field. Pipelines take easements too, Sir William. You have not abolished the taking. You have moved it fifty yards and changed the smell. William Blackstone: Then let the turbine owner buy his pipeline route like an honest man. I once wrote that it is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer. I say tonight it is better that ten data centers go unbuilt than that one farmer be wrongly dispossessed. Otto von Bismarck: That is a fine sentence, and nations that live by it import their electricity. A state builds ahead of need, or it falls behind its neighbors. I built railways before Germany knew it wanted them, and the trains filled. William Blackstone: And when the private railways failed their purpose, you took them over. So tell me this. If the forecast load never comes, who takes over an empty power line? The utility will not name the customer, the contracts are sealed, and nobody in this room knows whether the demand is real. The farmer will have given his field for a rumor. Otto von Bismarck: I concede I cannot see the future. Nobody can, which is why statesmen are paid. But I can see a grid that is short of power today, and I know that a minister who waits for certainty waits forever. William Blackstone: Then let the minister pay for his own certainty, and leave my farmer out of it! Otto von Bismarck: YOUR FARMER WILL WANT ELECTRICITY TOO! William Blackstone: THEN LET HIM BUY IT, NOT SURRENDER FOR IT! Otto von Bismarck: FOUR VOLUMES OF EXCUSES! William Blackstone: IRON AND BLOOD AND EASEMENTS! Otto von Bismarck: CASHIER! William Blacksto

    Can They Take Your Farm for a Data Center? Blackstone vs Bismarck

  4. Oct 15

    Who Owns the Water Under a Data Center? Locke vs Bentham

    Samuel Johnson: Good evening, and welcome to bout three of six. Tonight we go underground, to the water beneath the town and the air above it. I am Samuel Johnson, and I am in a terrible position, sir. Niccolo Machiavelli: The Doctor’s position is terrible because the honest man tonight is a Whig. Samuel Johnson: John Locke is a Whig, sir, and the first Whig was the Devil. Yet he defends the common well against the mighty, and I find I must cheer for him through clenched teeth. Somebody fetch Boswell and have him write that down, for it will never happen again. Niccolo Machiavelli: And in the far corner stands my man, Jeremy Bentham, who would weigh his own mother if the scale were accurate. Samuel Johnson: Mister Bentham has called the rights of man nonsense upon stilts. Sir, I once kicked a stone to refute a bishop, and I shall kick this desk to refute a utilitarian. Niccolo Machiavelli: You will break your foot on the desk, Doctor, and Bentham will enter the pain in a ledger. Samuel Johnson: Consider the stakes. A large warehouse draws about three thousand gallons of water a day. The typical data center in one study draws one hundred twenty one thousand. Niccolo Machiavelli: In The Prince I praised Cesare Borgia, who gave a cruel minister the hard work, then had him cut in two in the square at Cesena so the people would feel satisfied. When the wells run low, my friends, watch for whoever gets cut in two. Samuel Johnson: That is the most disgraceful thing ever said in this booth. Niccolo Machiavelli: It is chapter seven, Doctor, and it worked beautifully. Samuel Johnson: John Locke, Jeremy Bentham, the floor is yours, gentlemen. Draw only what you need from it. Niccolo Machiavelli: Mister Bentham, count everything, and count the Doctor last. John Locke: Thank you, Doctor Johnson. I say a man may draw from the common well only if he leaves enough, and as good, for his neighbor. Jeremy Bentham: Thank you, Signor Machiavelli, I have counted you already. I say enough and as good is a slogan, and I should like the figures to three decimal places. John Locke: My opponent would sell his neighbor’s well if the sum came out in favor. Jeremy Bentham: Mister Locke would let a town go thirsty rather than do arithmetic in public. John Locke: This conversation is brought to you by PhilosophersTalk.com, where thinkers discuss! Jeremy Bentham: Created by AITalkerApp.com, create your own animated conversations. Link in the description! John Locke: I am John Locke, author of the Two Treatises of Government. I hold that a man makes a thing his own by mixing his labor with what lies in common. But only where there is enough, and as good, left in common for others. And I wrote that nothing was made by God for man to spoil or destroy. Tonight I intend to hold a data center to both of those rules. Jeremy Bentham: And I am Jeremy Bentham, founder of utilitarianism. I hold that the greatest happiness of the greatest number is the measure of right and wrong. I called natural rights simple nonsense, and imprescriptible rights nonsense upon stilts. I also had my body preserved and put on display at University College London, so I can confirm the arrangement has given me roughly eleven units of happiness and the students considerably fewer. John Locke: Then let us count what is being drawn. A large warehouse uses about three thousand gallons of water a day. The typical data center in one study draws one hundred twenty one thousand. Large ones draw between one and five million, which is the water of a town of ten to fifty thousand people. One Google site in Iowa withdrew three point nine million gallons a day and consumed two point eight million. Consumed means it rose as vapor and never came back. Most of it came from municipal drinking water systems, the same pipes the town drinks from. Jeremy Bentham: Splendid figures, and I adore a figure, but you have chased the wrong animal. Data centers consumed about seventeen billion gallons directly in 2023. The power stations that feed them consumed about two hundred eleven billion. Twelve parts in thirteen of the water is at the power plant. And a well designed dry cooling system can match the evaporative kind in most climates while using almost none. So the cure for thirst is an engineer and a price, not a warehouse. John Locke: I grant the power station, and I will come to it. But mark when the thirst arrives. Demand for cooling water can triple in hot weather. That is the very week the town is rationing its lawns. A man who takes most from the common well on the hottest day of the year is not sharing it. Jeremy Bentham: Then let me read you a better author. Mister Locke, in his own Second Treatise, asks who can doubt that the water in the pitcher is his only who drew it out. The data center drew it, sir. By your own book, it owns the pitcher, the water, and very possibly the well. I give that argument a nine. John Locke: Read one more line, Mister Bentham, since you have the book open. I wrote that no one is injured by another man’s drink when he has a whole river of the same water left. The pitcher was mine only because the river was full. When the aquifer falls, the proviso closes the tap. Jeremy Bentham: A seven, then. Revised downward for context. John Locke: Now the air, which no one can put in a pitcher at all. One estimate puts the health damage from data center pollution at five billion dollars in 2023. Projections for 2028 run between eleven point seven and twenty point nine billion a year, with about thirteen hundred early deaths. More than ninety percent of it comes from distant power plants, and some communities carry over two hundred times the burden of others. I wrote that men unite to preserve their lives, liberties and estates, which I called by the general name property. A man’s lungs are his property. Nobody asked his consent. Jeremy Bentham: Now I shall state Mister Locke’s case at full strength, chiefly so I can demonstrate how quickly it deflates. He says the aquifer and the air are held in common. He says a private taker may draw only while plenty remains, and may never waste what he draws. He says nobody may take a man’s health without his consent. It is a beautiful argument, and like most beautiful things it has never once been measured. John Locke: That was accurate, and I am surprised you could stay on stilts throughout. Jeremy Bentham: Stilts are excellent for wading, Mister Locke, particularly in a drought. John Locke: And here is yours, stated fairly before I take it apart. Mister Bentham says a gallon is a gallon wherever it is drawn. He says the pain of a thirsty town and the pleasure of a million people using these machines can be weighed on one scale. He says a price set to the harm will do more good than any rule about warehouses. That is honest arithmetic. My objection is to what he is willing to add together. Jeremy Bentham: Then watch me add. Intensity of the harm, a four. Duration, a six. Extent, millions of users, call it a ninety thousand. Propinquity, rather distant, since most of the smoke is at the power plant. The answer favors the data center, with a remainder of one asthmatic in Ohio, which I carry to the next page. John Locke: You cannot carry a dead man to the next page, sir. You cannot add his lungs to a faster search result and call the total happiness. Some things are not on the scale, because they were never yours to put there. Jeremy Bentham: That is your best line tonight, and I score it a twelve. But notice what your rule does. Under the warehouse limit, the data center must make its own power. The smoke you object to moves from the distant power station to the fence line, as it already has in Memphis. Your property in your lungs gets closer to the chimney, not further. John Locke: Then at least the neighbor can see whose chimney it is, and bring his action at law. I will concede you one thing honestly. Where the river is full, no one is injured by the drink. A data center beside the Great Lakes takes nothing my neighbor needs. A warehouse rule that ignores that is a blunt instrument. Jeremy Bentham: A concession! I shall have it framed beside my skeleton. And while we are being blunt, why a warehouse at all? A golf course drinks too, and serves a few hundred members. A brewery drinks, a hospital drinks. Your rule singles out the one building that happens to look like a box. John Locke: Because the box is pretending to be its own neighbor, sir. It asks to be zoned as a warehouse and then drinks like a town. Hold it to the description it gave when it asked for the permit. And here is what neither of us can measure. Most operators report only limited, aggregated figures on their water. Many do not track it at all. There are almost no air monitors at the fence lines. You want a sum, Mister Bentham, and the numbers are locked in a drawer. Jeremy Bentham: I admit it freely. A felicific calculus under a nondisclosure agreement is a blind man’s abacus. I cannot weigh what they will not show me. Make them publish every gallon and every ounce of smoke, and I will price it to the penny. John Locke: And while you wait for the figures, the town waits for its water. Jeremy Bentham: One forecast says data centers will need up to one point four billion gallons of new supply a day by 2030. That is more than New York City drinks. It is a forecast, Mister Locke. John Locke: So was the drought, sir, until it arrived! Jeremy Bentham: THEN PRICE THE DROUGHT! John Locke: YOU CANNOT PRICE MY LUNGS! Jeremy Bentham: I CAN PRICE ANYTHING! John Locke: THAT IS THE PROBLEM, SIR! Jeremy Bentham: STILTS! John Locke: SPOILAGE! Jeremy Bentham: PROVISO! John Locke: PANOPTICON! Jeremy Bentham: SLOGAN! John Locke: ABACUS! Jeremy Bentham: NINE OUT OF TEN! John Locke: If you found this useful, please like and subscribe. Mister Bentham will tell you he has measured the happiness it brings you. He is the only philosopher in history who calculated that his

    Who Owns the Water Under a Data Center? Locke vs Bentham

  5. Oct 9

    Who Really Pays for the Data Center? Sumner vs Carnegie

    Samuel Johnson: Good evening, and welcome to the second of six contests on who pays for the data center. I am Samuel Johnson, and I shall once again preside with perfect impartiality. Niccolo Machiavelli: I am Niccolo Machiavelli, and as I wrote in The Prince, it is far safer to be feared than loved. The Doctor has settled for neither. Samuel Johnson: Sir, tonight’s question is who truly pays the bill. In the near corner stands William Graham Sumner, a professor at Yale and the champion of the Forgotten Man. He is an American, which I am obliged to overlook. Niccolo Machiavelli: The Doctor once called the Americans a race of convicts, so this is him being warm. Samuel Johnson: And in the far corner stands Andrew Carnegie, a steelmaker and a Scotchman. My Dictionary records that oats are a grain which in England is generally given to horses, but in Scotland supports the people. Niccolo Machiavelli: My man Carnegie took the tariff, sold out for three hundred million dollars, and is remembered for libraries. Cesare Borgia never managed anything so elegant. Samuel Johnson: The household in Ohio now pays some sixteen dollars more each month for its electricity, and somebody must answer for it. Niccolo Machiavelli: Somebody will be blamed, Doctor, which is not the same thing at all. Samuel Johnson: Professor Sumner, Mister Carnegie, the floor is yours, gentlemen, and I beg you to keep it honest. Niccolo Machiavelli: Mister Carnegie, kindly ignore the Doctor and do whatever works. William Graham Sumner: Thank you, Doctor Johnson. I say the man who pays this bill was never invited to the meeting. Andrew Carnegie: And thank you, Mister Machiavelli, I fully intend to. I say a great works repays its town many times over. William Graham Sumner: Mister Carnegie called his industry an infant while he was the largest steelmaker on earth. Andrew Carnegie: The Professor has a remedy for nothing and a lecture for everything. William Graham Sumner: This conversation is brought to you by PhilosophersTalk.com, where thinkers discuss! Andrew Carnegie: Created by AITalkerApp.com, create your own animated conversations. Link in the description! William Graham Sumner: I am William Graham Sumner, professor of political and social science at Yale, and before that a clergyman, which taught me to distrust a collection plate. In 1883 I described a pattern. A sees something he wishes done and talks it over with B. Then A and B pass a law deciding what C shall do for X. I call C the Forgotten Man. He works, he votes, generally he prays, but he always pays. Andrew Carnegie: And I am Andrew Carnegie, born poor in Scotland, and a bobbin boy in a cotton mill at one dollar and twenty cents a week. I made steel cheaper than any man alive, sold the business for more than three hundred million dollars, and set about giving it away. I built more than sixteen hundred libraries in America. I mention it only because the Professor will not. William Graham Sumner: Then let us find the Forgotten Man in the present case. A is a governor who wants a ribbon to cut. B is a company that wants a great deal of electricity. The independent monitor of the largest American power market says data centers account for six point three billion dollars of its last capacity auction, out of sixteen point four billion. Households in Ohio pay about sixteen dollars more each month. In seven states, four point three billion dollars of connection costs were assigned to ordinary ratepayers in a single year. That household is C, and nobody asked him. Andrew Carnegie: Professor, you have read one column of the ledger. A national laboratory study found that the states with the fastest growth in demand saw real prices fall between 2019 and 2024. Another found rates six percent lower where data centers grew. I learned the reason at the mill. Run the works full and the cost of every ton comes down. A great customer shares the fixed cost of the wires with the widow down the lane. William Graham Sumner: That second study was supported by Google, which I mention for the widow’s benefit. And both findings can be true. When a system has idle capacity, a large customer lowers the average cost. When it is full, the same customer forces new plant at a higher price, and the bill goes to everyone. Your evidence comes from the slack years, sir. The sixteen dollars comes from the tight ones. Andrew Carnegie: Then hear what the town receives. Loudoun County in Virginia spends about four cents serving a data center for every dollar of tax it collects. An ordinary business costs the county twenty five cents. These buildings send no children to the schools and few wagons down the road. I never knew a town that was sorry to see my chimneys, Professor. William Graham Sumner: Homestead was sorry, sir, though I grant you were in Scotland at the time. And observe who gains in your example. The county that taxes the machine does well. The household two states away on the same grid gets the bill and none of the tax. Andrew Carnegie: The Professor has plainly been saving that one for some time. William Graham Sumner: I shall now state Mister Carnegie’s case properly, which I do only because a weak opponent teaches nothing. He says size is the source of cheapness. He says a steady customer running day and night is the best customer a utility can have. He says the works pays more in tax than it takes in service. All of that is sound arithmetic, and none of it explains why he needs a favor. Andrew Carnegie: That was nearly generous, Professor, and I shall treasure it always. William Graham Sumner: Here is my answer to it. In 1890 you wrote that the steel industry was not yet fully grown and must be protected until it was. You were then the largest steelmaker on earth. I wrote a book calling protectionism the doctrine that waste makes wealth, and you were my best illustration. An industry spending seven hundred billion dollars a year is no infant either, sir. It is merely holding the bottle. Andrew Carnegie: Now I shall do the Professor the same service, chiefly so the audience may see how little he asks for. He says that when two parties strike a bargain and send the bill to a third, it is no bargain at all. He says the cost is spread so thin that no household will fight it, while the gain is gathered so thick that somebody will always lobby for it. It is neatly put, and it is the most cheerful thing he has ever said. William Graham Sumner: You have stated it accurately, which surprises me a good deal. Andrew Carnegie: But the Professor has indicted the wrong man. That sixteen dollars does not come to the data center. It is a capacity payment, and it goes to the owners of power plants, many of them built long ago. The fellow he calls B never touches the money. And notice his cure. He would forbid the gift, and then forbid every rule that might replace it. He offers the Forgotten Man his deepest sympathy and nothing else. William Graham Sumner: The first point is correct, and I concede it. The money lands in a third pocket. That makes it worse, because two parties arranged a transfer and neither can be made to return it. As for my cure, I want no warehouse rule and no commission. I want a contract. One utility in Ohio required these companies to pay for eighty five percent of the power they reserved, for up to twelve years, used or not. Its forecast of new demand fell from thirty thousand megawatts to under six thousand. Four fifths of your great future left the room when it was handed a pen. Andrew Carnegie: Oh, that is good, Professor, and I may borrow it. But the fifth that stayed is the fifth that matters. I did not build every mill I sketched either. The men who signed in Ohio will pay their way, which proves my case. The serious builder never feared the bill. William Graham Sumner: Then you will not object to your own rule. When you gave a town a library, you required it to own the site and to tax itself ten percent of the gift every year. You said a community not willing to maintain a library had better not possess it. I agree entirely. An industry not willing to maintain its own power line had better not possess that either. Andrew Carnegie: I did say it, and I meant it, and I am rather pleased to be quoted. But mark the difference. I gave the building, and the town had only to keep the lamps lit. I have always held that the man who dies rich dies disgraced. Show me the ratepayer I left poorer, Professor. William Graham Sumner: You left the buyer of every steel rail poorer by the amount of the duty. He never knew your name, which is the whole of my point. And here is what neither of us knows. Much of that capacity bill is for data centers that have not been built. If the demand arrives, your arithmetic holds. If it does not, the household has paid for a power plant to serve a rumor. Andrew Carnegie: I will grant the uncertainty, for I have seen a boom or two. The contracts are private and the forecasts are guesses. But every great thing in this country was built ahead of its customers. Wait for certainty and you will have a very safe village and no steel. William Graham Sumner: Then build ahead with your own money, sir, as you advise the poor to do. Andrew Carnegie: I always did, Professor, once the tariff was paid! William Graham Sumner: THERE IS THE CONFESSION AT LAST! Andrew Carnegie: IT WAS THE LAW OF THE LAND! William Graham Sumner: YOU ARGUED FOR IT IN PRINT, SIR! Andrew Carnegie: I BUILT SIXTEEN HUNDRED LIBRARIES! William Graham Sumner: AND SENT THE TOWNS THE BILL! Andrew Carnegie: PEDANT! William Graham Sumner: INFANT! Andrew Carnegie: PREACHER! William Graham Sumner: PROTECTIONIST! Andrew Carnegie: SCHOOLMASTER! William Graham Sumner: SIXTEEN DOLLARS A MONTH! Andrew Carnegie: CHEAP AT THE PRICE! William Graham Sumner: If this was of use to you, like and subscribe. It is free, so for once the Forgotten Man is not being charged. Mister Carnegie is a cheerful man who never met a cost he co

    Who Really Pays for the Data Center? Sumner vs Carnegie

  6. Oct 7

    Could Data Centers Survive as Plain Warehouses? A New Series

    Samuel Johnson: This conversation is brought to you by PhilosophersTalk.com, where thinkers discuss! Niccolo Machiavelli: Created by AITalkerApp.com, create your own animated conversations. Link in the description! Samuel Johnson: Good evening. I am Samuel Johnson, author of A Dictionary of the English Language, and I have been engaged to call a series of six debates from this booth. Niccolo Machiavelli: I am Niccolo Machiavelli, author of The Prince, and I have been engaged to tell you what is actually happening. Samuel Johnson: Our subject is the data center. It is a windowless building full of calculating engines, which drinks like a town and draws power like a city. Niccolo Machiavelli: And our question is a simple one. What if the law treated that building as the thing it resembles, which is a plain warehouse? Samuel Johnson: Under that rule it may take from the grid only what a warehouse of the same size would take. It may draw from the city main and the aquifer only what a warehouse would draw. Niccolo Machiavelli: It receives no tax favor written for its industry alone. Whatever else it needs, it must generate, find, or buy at the full price. Samuel Johnson: Could such a building still turn a profit? Or does the whole enterprise stand upon gifts from people who were never asked? Niccolo Machiavelli: That is too large a quarrel for one evening, Doctor, so we have cut it into six. Samuel Johnson: In the first bout, Henry George meets Leland Stanford on whether a state should pay an industry to come. Niccolo Machiavelli: In the second, William Graham Sumner and Andrew Carnegie dispute who is truly paying the bill. Samuel Johnson: In the third, John Locke and Jeremy Bentham contest who owns the water under the ground and the air above it. Niccolo Machiavelli: In the fourth, William Blackstone and Otto von Bismarck argue over whether a farm may be taken for a private customer’s power line. Samuel Johnson: In the fifth, Sumner returns to face George, for both men despise the subsidy and neither can abide the other’s cure. Niccolo Machiavelli: And in the sixth, Walter Bagehot and Alexander Hamilton open the ledger and settle whether the thing can pay its own way at all. Samuel Johnson: Here is how the evenings will run. Before each debate we shall introduce the two men and the stakes. Then we go down to the floor and we do not interrupt. Niccolo Machiavelli: When the shouting stops, we come back and score it. The Doctor scores on virtue, and I score on victory. Samuel Johnson: I shall judge who was right, sir, as any honest man would. Niccolo Machiavelli: And I shall judge who won, which is a different matter and a far more useful one. Samuel Johnson: Then the audience may rely upon one honest scorecard at least. Niccolo Machiavelli: The Doctor will now promise to be fair, so do enjoy it. Samuel Johnson: I must assure the audience that I come to this task entirely without prejudice. Niccolo Machiavelli: Doctor, you once wrote up the debates of Parliament for a magazine after sitting in the gallery a single time. You confessed that you took care the Whig dogs should not have the best of it. Samuel Johnson: I saved appearances tolerably well, and I shall do so again. Niccolo Machiavelli: Whereas I shall simply back whichever man is getting away with something. Samuel Johnson: Sir, that is an evasion of every duty a judge possesses. Niccolo Machiavelli: Where you see an evasion, Doctor, I see beautiful footwork. Samuel Johnson: One caution before we begin. The sums in this quarrel are very large. One state expects to forgive two and a half billion dollars in a single year, and four companies are spending more than seven hundred billion. Niccolo Machiavelli: And many of the contracts are sealed. So when our fighters are guessing at a figure, we shall make them say so. Samuel Johnson: That is the nearest thing to a principle I have heard from you this evening. Niccolo Machiavelli: Do not grow accustomed to it, Doctor. Samuel Johnson: If this series interests you, please like and subscribe, and pay no attention to the Florentine beside me. He was dismissed from the government of Florence, and he has been offering advice to princes ever since without one of them asking. Niccolo Machiavelli: Yes, do like and subscribe. And remember that the Doctor’s Dictionary has a word for everything except losing gracefully. He defined a lexicographer as a harmless drudge, which remains the only modest thing he ever wrote and the only accurate one. Samuel Johnson: I shall see you at the first bell, sir. Niccolo Machiavelli: I shall be the one enjoying myself. Get full access to Philosophers Talk at philosopherstalk.com/subscribe

    Could Data Centers Survive as Plain Warehouses? A New Series

  7. Oct 6

    Could Data Centers Survive as Plain Warehouses? A New Series

    Samuel Johnson: This conversation is brought to you by PhilosophersTalk.com, where thinkers discuss! Niccolo Machiavelli: Created by AITalkerApp.com, create your own animated conversations. Link in the description! Samuel Johnson: Good evening. I am Samuel Johnson, author of A Dictionary of the English Language, and I have been engaged to call a series of six debates from this booth. Niccolo Machiavelli: I am Niccolo Machiavelli, author of The Prince, and I have been engaged to tell you what is actually happening. Samuel Johnson: Our subject is the data center. It is a windowless building full of calculating engines, which drinks like a town and draws power like a city. Niccolo Machiavelli: And our question is a simple one. What if the law treated that building as the thing it resembles, which is a plain warehouse? Samuel Johnson: Under that rule it may take from the grid only what a warehouse of the same size would take. It may draw from the city main and the aquifer only what a warehouse would draw. Niccolo Machiavelli: It receives no tax favor written for its industry alone. Whatever else it needs, it must generate, find, or buy at the full price. Samuel Johnson: Could such a building still turn a profit? Or does the whole enterprise stand upon gifts from people who were never asked? Niccolo Machiavelli: That is too large a quarrel for one evening, Doctor, so we have cut it into six. Samuel Johnson: In the first bout, Henry George meets Leland Stanford on whether a state should pay an industry to come. Niccolo Machiavelli: In the second, William Graham Sumner and Andrew Carnegie dispute who is truly paying the bill. Samuel Johnson: In the third, John Locke and Jeremy Bentham contest who owns the water under the ground and the air above it. Niccolo Machiavelli: In the fourth, William Blackstone and Otto von Bismarck argue over whether a farm may be taken for a private customer’s power line. Samuel Johnson: In the fifth, Sumner returns to face George, for both men despise the subsidy and neither can abide the other’s cure. Niccolo Machiavelli: And in the sixth, Walter Bagehot and Alexander Hamilton open the ledger and settle whether the thing can pay its own way at all. Samuel Johnson: Here is how the evenings will run. Before each debate we shall introduce the two men and the stakes. Then we go down to the floor and we do not interrupt. Niccolo Machiavelli: When the shouting stops, we come back and score it. The Doctor scores on virtue, and I score on victory. Samuel Johnson: I shall judge who was right, sir, as any honest man would. Niccolo Machiavelli: And I shall judge who won, which is a different matter and a far more useful one. Samuel Johnson: Then the audience may rely upon one honest scorecard at least. Niccolo Machiavelli: The Doctor will now promise to be fair, so do enjoy it. Samuel Johnson: I must assure the audience that I come to this task entirely without prejudice. Niccolo Machiavelli: Doctor, you once wrote up the debates of Parliament for a magazine after sitting in the gallery a single time. You confessed that you took care the Whig dogs should not have the best of it. Samuel Johnson: I saved appearances tolerably well, and I shall do so again. Niccolo Machiavelli: Whereas I shall simply back whichever man is getting away with something. Samuel Johnson: Sir, that is an evasion of every duty a judge possesses. Niccolo Machiavelli: Where you see an evasion, Doctor, I see beautiful footwork. Samuel Johnson: One caution before we begin. The sums in this quarrel are very large. One state expects to forgive two and a half billion dollars in a single year, and four companies are spending more than seven hundred billion. Niccolo Machiavelli: And many of the contracts are sealed. So when our fighters are guessing at a figure, we shall make them say so. Samuel Johnson: That is the nearest thing to a principle I have heard from you this evening. Niccolo Machiavelli: Do not grow accustomed to it, Doctor. Samuel Johnson: If this series interests you, please like and subscribe, and pay no attention to the Florentine beside me. He was dismissed from the government of Florence, and he has been offering advice to princes ever since without one of them asking. Niccolo Machiavelli: Yes, do like and subscribe. And remember that the Doctor’s Dictionary has a word for everything except losing gracefully. He defined a lexicographer as a harmless drudge, which remains the only modest thing he ever wrote and the only accurate one. Samuel Johnson: I shall see you at the first bell, sir. Niccolo Machiavelli: I shall be the one enjoying myself. Get full access to Philosophers Talk at philosopherstalk.com/subscribe

    Could Data Centers Survive as Plain Warehouses? A New Series

  8. Sep 28

    Was Trump Right to Reject Iran's Deal? Napoleon vs Wellington

    Napoleon: Iran offered to reopen the Strait on the seventh day, and the President said no. I once waited five weeks in Moscow for a letter like that. He is right not to wait. Duke of Wellington: You were offered the Rhine in eighteen thirteen and refused it. By the following spring you were offered Elba. Napoleon: A blockade is a siege, and I have never once lost an argument about sieges. Duke of Wellington: You invented the Continental System, which is a blockade, and it took you all the way to Moscow. Napoleon: This conversation is brought to you by PhilosophersTalk.com, where thinkers discuss. Duke of Wellington: Created by AITalkerApp.com, create your own animated conversations. Link in the description. Napoleon: Arthur, we meet again on the subject of Iran, which is fast becoming the longest campaign the two of us have ever fought together, and I notice that neither of us is being paid. Duke of Wellington: I was paid handsomely for Waterloo. Parliament bought me a country estate. You were given an island. Napoleon: That is good. That is very good, and I resent it enormously. Here is the map. The war began in February with the killing of the old Supreme Leader. His son Mojtaba took the chair and has not been seen in public since. A ceasefire in April, a memorandum in June, and by August it had expired quietly, like a marriage in which both parties had already moved out. Duke of Wellington: Then September arrived and the shooting resumed at sea. The Americans destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired missiles at an American warship. Then the President announced that the war would end immediately after the midterm election, the first time I have heard a commander announce the date of his own retreat. Napoleon: And last week at the United Nations, Iran made its move. Foreign Minister Araghchi offered a seven day roadmap. America releases at least twelve billion dollars in frozen assets, waives the oil sanctions, and lifts the blockade. And then, on the seventh day, Iran graciously reopens the Strait of Hormuz, which it closed, and agrees to begin talking about the uranium, which it hid. Duke of Wellington: And on Saturday, leaving for a campaign stop, the President rejected it. He said Iran only made the offer because it is losing so badly. Then he posted a map on which the Strait of Hormuz had been renamed the Trump Strait. Napoleon: I admire that enormously. I conquered most of Europe, and posterity gave me a pastry and a psychological complex. He has not conquered anything yet, and already he has a strait. Duke of Wellington: I won, and I received a boot and a beef dish. Napoleon: Very good. The beef is the better of the two, and I will deny I ever said so. Now, my position. The President was right to refuse. Tighten the blockade. Let me tell you about Moscow. I arrived in September. I wrote to the Tsar proposing peace, and every morning I asked my aide whether the Tsar had written back. The first morning he said, sire, the Russian post office is on fire. Because the whole city was on fire. And I waited five more weeks for a letter from a man whose entire strategy was promising nothing and delivering less. That is this roadmap. Every American concession arrives on the first day. Every Iranian concession arrives on the seventh, or later, or in talks. I know this trick. I invented half of it. Duke of Wellington: You left out the part where you walked home. Napoleon: I did not walk anywhere. I rode home in a sleigh, which was very cold, and gave me considerable time to reflect on the Russian postal service. And look at Iran today. Araghchi now says the President’s refusal was only an initial reaction, and he is waiting for a definitive one. When a man is told no and asks for a more definitive no, he is losing. The blockade has turned back more than one hundred and twenty ships. Inflation near eighty percent. Grocery prices more than doubled in a year. The invisible Supreme Leader has issued a written order forbidding his officials from saying anything discouraging, which is what governments do when the truth has become discouraging. Their vice president says the policy for two years is neither war nor peace. That is not strategy. That is a bankrupt man telling his creditors he is taking a sabbatical. Duke of Wellington: My position is the one I held in April, and it has not improved with age, because neither has yours. The President has said no. He has not said what yes looks like. A blockade is a means. It is not an end. One newspaper reports he has told aides he expects to resume bombing after the election, while his own officials say the talks remain positive and constructive. That is not a policy. It is a weather forecast. In eighteen ten I built the Lines of Torres Vedras and starved Marshal Massena out of Portugal. It worked because I knew exactly what I was holding, and the Royal Navy could feed me for as long as I liked. Washington has neither a clear objective nor unlimited patience. It has gasoline above four dollars a gallon, record diesel prices, and a poll showing under a third of Americans support this war. The besieger is starving too. Napoleon: Very well, I will summarize the Duke’s argument fairly, the way a butcher first admires the cow. A siege is only as strong as the besieger’s patience, and America’s patience now has an expiration date printed on it. Pressure without a defined end becomes punishment, and punishment is not policy. An imperfect deal struck now, backed by force, is better than a perfect deal that never arrives, because the enemy has openly chosen to wait out the American calendar. That is his argument, and it is good, the way a good fence is good. It works perfectly until someone walks around it. Duke of Wellington: And the walk around it is what, exactly? Napoleon: Twelve billion dollars, Arthur. You pay them on the first day, and they walk around your fence carrying it. Every tyrant with a coastline is watching to learn whether seizing a strait pays. Duke of Wellington: Now I will summarize his position fairly, so that there is something left standing when I knock it down. The Emperor argues that Iran is closer to breaking than it admits, that paying before verification rewards hostage taking, and that the roadmap front loads American concessions while Iranian ones drift into the future. On sequencing, he is right, and I say that only because he will be insufferable if I do not. It is also exactly the case you would expect from the man who invented the Continental System. You were going to strangle Britain by closing every port in Europe. Russia stopped cooperating, so you marched to Moscow to enforce your blockade, and your blockade enforced you straight into the snow. Napoleon: The Continental System was a magnificent idea that was let down by a disappointing continent. Duke of Wellington: And in November of eighteen thirteen, after Russia, the allies offered you the Frankfurt proposals. France would keep the Rhine, the Alps, and the Pyrenees. You stalled for better terms, because you were certain the other side would break first. By April of eighteen fourteen you had abdicated and they gave you Elba. You are the only man in history who haggled his way from the Rhine to a Mediterranean rock. And now Washington says Iran is losing so badly that there is nothing to bargain over. That is precisely what you said about the allies in eighteen thirteen. Napoleon: I refused because I was certain I would win, which is the only reason anyone refuses anything. And you will notice I came back. Duke of Wellington: For one hundred days, and then I handled it. So here is what the President should have sent. Not yes, and not a bare no. A counteroffer. You treat their seven days as an opening bid, and you change the order. The blockade eases as ships verifiably move through the Strait. The money moves when inspectors move. American forces stay in the region until the terms are kept. After Waterloo I commanded the allied army that occupied France for three years to make certain the peace held. That is what a settlement looks like. You sign it, and you stand next to it. Napoleon: You negotiated with the House of Lords for years, and now you want to negotiate with a man nobody has seen since February, whose own president says Iran has no trust in the American side. Duke of Wellington: Here is what neither of us knows. The last public count put Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium at about four hundred and forty kilograms. No inspector is known to have seen it since the war began. We do not know where it is, who in Tehran gives orders, or whether Iran breaks before America’s patience does. Napoleon: Agreed, and that is exactly why I would squeeze harder. You do not pay the man on the other side of the hill to describe the hill. Duke of Wellington: A blockade does not find a single gram of uranium. And kindly stop borrowing my line about the other side of the hill. I said it first, and I said it better. Napoleon: Everything you ever said, you said slowly, which the English always mistake for saying it better. And you are missing the point, the way you missed Lord Winchilsea in your duel. Iran’s president said just days ago that before the American elections or after, it makes no difference to them. That is a bluff from a government that cannot pay for groceries. Call it. Duke of Wellington: You called the Tsar’s bluff too, and you lost an army! Napoleon: You want to reward a hostage taker for returning the hostage! Duke of Wellington: THE BESIEGER IS STARVING! THE PUMPS ARE EMPTY AND THE POLLS ARE WORSE! Napoleon: THEIR SUPREME LEADER HAS BANNED BAD NEWS! THAT IS WHAT COLLAPSE SOUNDS LIKE! Duke of Wellington: THAT IS WHAT FRANKFURT SOUNDED LIKE! YOU THOUGHT THE ALLIES WOULD BLINK! Napoleon: THEY BLINKED TWICE! I WAS SIMPLY LOOKING THE OTHER WAY! Duke of Wellington: AT ELBA! Napoleon: AND YOUR SIDE LOST THE ARGUMENT! THE PRESIDENT SAID NO! Duke of Wellingt

    Was Trump Right to Reject Iran's Deal? Napoleon vs Wellington
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