Rigatoni Capital Podcast

Colin Santucci
  • 5.0 (2)
  • Investing

Helping retail investors grow wealth through long-term, buy-and-hold investing in stocks, index funds, and Bitcoin. Subscribe to the Rigatoni Capital Substack newsletter for weekly analysis, market insights, and portfolio updates.

  1. 10h ago

    The Wartime Economy Shows Up in the Backlogs

    Markets are rebounding slightly with Intel bouncing after earnings and Brent Crude back under $100, but this is the dog days of summer and I do not expect a strong Friday. Traders are not going to want to hold into the weekend with the US now thirteen days into striking Iran and talk of a much larger attack. Nobody wants to write about industrials, which is fine by me. Lockheed Martin, RTX, Union Pacific and Northrop Grumman all reported, Caterpillar is still two weeks out, and when you do find coverage it is AI slop scraped off the transcript. My focus on Substack stays on tech, financials and industrials. The Kimi K3 fear from last Friday washed out fast. Tae Kim was one of the first to explain why open weights are good for AI infrastructure, since Kimi K3 needs full chip racks that only Nvidia here and Huawei over there can supply, and downloading an open weight to your own hard drive offline undercuts the whole IP theft argument. A clip from Tae Kim goes further, saying OpenAI and Anthropic extend their lead into next year with better models they have not released, plus recursive self improvement where the agents build on the models themselves. That makes me willing to step back and say my call that the frontier labs were getting commoditized may have been wrong. My post last night covered how the wartime economy shows up in the backlogs. Lockheed and RTX did not have blowout quarters year over year and there were plenty of asterisks, but RTX is sitting on a $289 billion backlog and Lockheed on $230 billion, and that plus forward guidance is why those stocks had follow through. The Defense Production Act, reshoring rare earths, depleted missiles and the data center build out all feed the same story. Transports are near all time highs, and jobless claims at 187,000 say the economy may be running hot. QQQ is trading around 686, which is below the $687 I bought on the June flush down when I got lucky calling that bottom. Micron and semis keep selling off, Broadcom is back to $382, Nvidia has been consolidating. The Nasdaq 100 is my largest position and I have no dry powder, so I do not need to buy this dip. Alphabet is finding buyers near its 200 day and I expect more around $310. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #industrials #financials #defensestocks #earnings #backlog #AI #openweights #Nvidia #TaeKim #Alphabet #wartimeeconomy #transports #railroads #aerospace #Iran #oil #RigatoniCapital $INTC $LMT $RTX $UNP $NOC $NSC $CAT $NVDA $AVGO $MU $GOOGL $TDG $GE $AXP $GS $QQQ $TRV $CB $JPM $BRK.B $IMAX $DLR $NOW

  2. 1d ago

    Industrials Week and Why Google Is No Longer the Cool Kid

    Markets are selling off pre-market after Yemen declared a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping and struck two tankers in the Red Sea, with oil spiking and Trump saying Iran will be held responsible. This is industrials week for me. Chubb and Northrop Grumman both reported strong earnings earlier and I wrote them up on Substack, with Lockheed Martin, RTX and Blackstone landing today. GM's defense subsidiary is a leading contender to build a large infantry squad vehicle to replace the Humvee, with the Army planning to buy 10,000 trucks and 1,200 already ordered in a deal worth more than $1 billion. That ties back to what Shyam Sankar at Palantir keeps saying about needing to build weapons faster and moving toward a wartime economy, which is bullish for industrials. Using 80% tech as an example, if that is how your portfolio looks, you should have some allocation to financials and industrials alongside it. My own build is roughly 70% tech with the rest in financials and industrials, because those are the sectors that can actually lead a bull market. Consumer staples cannot, and I doubt energy can over a long duration. That is the whole point of my July 21st post, "Stop Being All Tech: Why Your Watchlist Needs Financials and Industrials." Initial jobless claims collapsed to 187,000, the lowest since 1969, which says the economy is running hot and gives the Fed another reason to consider raising rates. The 10 year sits at 4.7 and the two year at 4.35. A Jensen Huang clip covers why Wall Street misunderstood DeepSeek and is misunderstanding Kimi K3 the same way, since great open models drive more usage, more Nvidia computers, more data centers and more diffusion into industries. That is exactly what my Substack argued last week about open weights helping the hyperscalers and AI infrastructure. ServiceNow's GAAP margin drop came almost entirely from $7.4 billion in acquisitions including Armis, with non-GAAP gross margin at 78%, and this earnings season is full of asterisks like that. Alphabet trades around 24 times forward earnings and is sitting on its 200 day near $322. I missed the big run up in Google, and don't own it directly. Rather than trying to pick the next hyperscaler, my suggestion is to buy the Nasdaq 100 on pullbacks, which is where I got lucky buying around $687. Nobody knew Micron would carry that index, and nobody knew Alphabet would go from hottest frontier lab to losing engineers to Anthropic and OpenAI. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #industrials #financials #defensestocks #earnings #AI #openweights #opensource #JensenHuang #Nvidia #Alphabet #ServiceNow #joblessclaims #Fed #oil #RedSea #Iran #sectorrotation #RigatoniCapital $GM $NOC $LMT $RTX $CB $BX $UNP $ITA $NVDA $GOOGL $NOW $MU $QQQ $CAVA $CRWV $NBIS

  3. 3d ago

    Stop Being All Tech: Why Your Watchlist Needs Financials and Industrials

    Trump is reportedly considering banning Chinese open weight AI models in the US, and my take is that the argument it is unsafe to run CCP open weight is fake news, since open weight can be downloaded to your own hard drive and built on locally. It is a head-scratcher that China is embracing open source at all given its history against open code, Bitcoin, and free speech. A clip from Jacob Robinson's podcast with free speech lawyer Preston Brin covers the First Amendment angle, where a future open source model rivaling Fable or Mythos could become a fight over publication as an expressive act. The bigger message for long term investors is not to be shy about AI infrastructure, CapEx, and the hyperscalers, since renting compute is an international story, though a taper in CapEx or backlogs that stop growing, like Alphabet's RPOs on Wednesday, is the real risk that could look like a bubble popping. Most of my AI exposure is passive through the Nasdaq 100 and SMH, with Nvidia as my second largest holding. My main suggestion is to stop being all tech and semis and build a watchlist with financials and industrials for the next pullback, something like 60% tech, 20% industrials such as GE Aerospace, TransDigm, Lockheed and RTX, and 20% financials such as JPMorgan, Chubb, Travelers, Berkshire and Goldman. Boeing landing a Dreamliner order from Philippine Airlines is a picks and shovels win for GE Aerospace, which was down on the day. Netflix is off around 50% from its highs, typical volatility for the name as it shifts from growth to value. Charles Schwab reported clients holding just 9% of assets in cash, the lowest since 2020, and Trump is nearing a fork in Iran between a ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or a joint campaign with Israel. Northrop Grumman sold off on weak net income, and defense names like RTX, Lockheed and Northrop should be putting up better numbers than this. Chubb reports tonight and I will write it up on Substack. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #AI #openweights #opensource #China #semiconductors #hyperscalers #defensestocks #industrials #financials #Netflix #Iran #earnings #GEAerospace #Boeing #sectorrotation #RigatoniCapital $NVDA $AVGO $QQQ $SMH $ORCL $NFLX $SCHW $NOC $RTX $LMT $GE $BA $CB $CAT $LRCX $GOOGL $TSLA $GEV $TXN $INTC $UNP $BX $NEE $TDG $JPM $GS $TRV $BRK.B $AXP $ITA

  4. 4d ago

    The AI Bubble Is in the Model Layer, Not the Infrastructure

    I get into Kimi K3 from Moonshot, another so called DeepSeek moment, and why I think open weights are good for the hyperscalers and AI infrastructure. I explain that the selloff in semiconductors started before Kimi K3, tied to margin calls in South Korea and AI infrastructure taking a breather, and I use Lam Research and Caterpillar as picks and shovels names that trade in sync at around the same market cap. I break down my Friday post on why Travelers stock is ripping, which I tie mostly to a lack of large storms in North America and higher yields as old low yielding bonds roll off, not AI, and I note Progressive did not have a good quarter. I talk Databricks running out of GPUs, whether it threatens Palantir's moat, and why I think its valuation is more realistic than the frontier labs. I also hit Big Food blaming GLP-1s for weak sales, and I close on Netflix trading around 22 times forward earnings once you strip out the Warner Brothers walk away payment. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #AI #artificialintelligence #semiconductors #openweights #Moonshot #Kimi #hyperscalers #Databricks #Palantir #Netflix #GLP1 #insurance #RigatoniCapital $LRCX $CAT $MU $SNDK $QQQ $TRV $CB $PGR $PLTR $NFLX $KHC

  5. Jul 17

    Kimi K3 Spooks Tech, But This Could Actually Be Bullish for the Hyperscalers

    Tech got spooked by the Kimi's new K3 headline, the open source Chinese model out of Moonshot that is benchmarking competitive with the frontier labs, and it feels eerily similar to the DeepSeek scare. Markets sell off on uncertainty, and my read is this could end up being bullish. Open source is a positive for the broader economy, and I agree with the take that this is a dream scenario for the hyperscalers who become the orchestration layer for multiple models while squeezing more tokens out of existing infrastructure. It also reinforces why I am suspicious that if there is an AI bubble, it is OpenAI and Anthropic, not the infrastructure. Memory names, Lam Research, and Caterpillar needed a breather regardless of one headline, and I make the case that Lam Research and Caterpillar are the picks and shovels winners nobody gives enough attention to. I am up 886% on Lam Research and 514% on Caterpillar and have never thought about trimming either. Netflix sold off 11% and I am still holding, down 24% on the name, and I explain my real complaint with the business, which is content quality rather than the quarter. Also shout out to both Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest @simeonmcmillan and Investor's Compass @investorscompass on Substack that write their own pieces on the Netflix earnings report. I also cover why the next leg of this bull market has to be led by hyperscalers, semis, or software rather than old economy names, why banks are not actually on a Goldilocks run yet, TSMC's strong quarter that nobody talked about, GE Aerospace and the dip I missed, and why I politely disagree with Larry Tentarelli on buying downtrends. I have no fear buying falling knives. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #KimiK3 #OpenSourceAI #China #DeepSeek #Hyperscalers #OpenAI #Anthropic #Netflix #NFLX #LamResearch #LRCX #Caterpillar #CAT #TSMC #TSM #GEAerospace #GE #IntuitiveSurgical #ISRG #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $NFLX $LRCX $CAT $TSM $GE $ISRG $TRV $AAPL $QQQ

  6. Jul 16

    BlackRock Blows Out Earnings and Larry Fink Pushes Back on the CapEx Bears

    BlackRock reported a blowout quarter with record revenue and record assets under management above $15 trillion. I own BlackRock directly and I am up 75% on the name since 2022, so I walk through the report, including why you need to strip out the HPS Investment Partners numbers when comparing year over year. Larry Fink went on Squawk on the Street and pushed back on Faber's framing that hyperscaler CapEx is speculative, and I break down why both sides of that debate have objective data before the argument turns into pure guesswork. My own take is that if there is an AI bubble, you are looking right at it, and it is OpenAI and Anthropic, not the infrastructure. I also cover Gavin Baker's response to Michael Burry on what happens to margins if share shifts from the frontier labs to cheaper models, why I politely disagree with Larry Tentarelli that this sell-off is a Fed story rather than froth coming out of tech, and quick looks at JB Hunt, United Airlines, Progressive, and ASML. Netflix reports tonight. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #BlackRock #BLK #LarryFink #AICapEx #Hyperscalers #OpenAI #Anthropic #GavinBaker #MichaelBurry #ASML #Netflix #NFLX #JBHunt #Progressive #JPMorgan #JPM #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $BLK $JPM $JBHT $PGR $UAL $ASML $NFLX $MU $QQQ

  7. Jul 15

    BlackRock and Bank Earnings Matter Most Today for Long Term Investors

    I rolled out of bed this morning and my phone was full of distractions. The Warren Buffett and Bill Gates Foundation drama, the Stripe deal with PayPal and Block, a Wall Street Journal headline about blockbuster stock sales overwhelming the bull market. None of that is the most important story today. Financial earnings are. BlackRock reported a strong quarter with assets under management hitting a record $15.3 trillion, up 22% year over year, revenue up 31%, GAAP operating income up 42%, and the company raising planned 2026 share repurchases to $2 billion. The stock is up over 5% pre-market. Financials are not having a cash problem and they are buying back shares, which makes them look like the good students in the room next to the hyperscalers whose buybacks are slowing down. I own a small position in BlackRock and I wish it were bigger. I also explain why I am not buying Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan up here and why the time to add was June 2023 during the regional bank crisis. I make the case that financials could be in the early innings of a Goldilocks run alongside the AI tech renaissance, the same way big banks got wealthy during the late nineties dot-com IPO boom. I also cover why high credit card delinquency charts do not show up at the big banks, ASML's strong quarter accelerating to 21% growth, industrials like Caterpillar up 62% year to date, and Kevin Warsh's testimony in front of Congress. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #BlackRock #BLK #BankEarnings #Financials #XLF #JPMorgan #JPM #GoldmanSachs #GS #LarryFink #ASML #Caterpillar #CAT #KevinWarsh #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $BLK $JPM $XLF $GS $ASML $CAT $QQQ $BRK.B

  8. Jul 14

    June CPI Comes In Low, Bank Earnings Kick Off, and IBM Drags Down Software

    June CPI came in surprisingly low this morning, with the month over month down 0.4% and year over year at 3.5%, a nice cooldown from the US-Iran war energy highs as gas prices came off. Bank earnings are kicking off with JPMorgan reporting a record revenue beat, though the stock is roughly flat, and Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs all reporting. I will have a deep dive on the banks on Substack later today. The bigger mover is IBM, which put out weak preliminary Q2 numbers and crashed hard, dragging the whole software space down with it. ZeroHedge is running the SaaS apocalypse headline again, but when you actually read IBM's explanation, clients shifted their June CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory to lock in supply before price increases, delaying mainframe and software deals rather than canceling them. Palantir and AppLovin initially sold off in pre-market on the back of that IBM software headline and the broader AI disruption fear, and I explain why that story has nothing to do with either name, and why AppLovin is not even a SaaS company. My take on software is the same as always: pick your fighters. I do not like the IGV as a play. I think Palantir and AppLovin are not disrupted by the AI story, and I am honest that I am not sure about the legacy names like Salesforce, Adobe, and Workday. I also cover Morgan Stanley raising its 2027 and 2028 hyperscaler CapEx estimates, why that spend running five times free cash flow means buybacks are not coming back anytime soon, and why I still think best of breed financials like JPMorgan, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Chubb, and Travelers are undervalued but worth waiting for on a pullback. Rigatoni Capital is a daily morning podcast for long term, buy and hold investors. This is not a show for short term traders or people looking for quick wins. Every morning I go through the most important headlines in finance, markets, and macro, and call out fake narratives in the financial media so you know what actually deserves your attention and what to ignore. Subscribe to Rigatoni Capital on Substack: https://rigatonicapital.substack.com Disclaimer: This blog is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All opinions are my own, and I am not a financial advisor. The information provided reflects my personal views and is intended to encourage discussion and thought among readers. Investments involve risk, including the loss of principal, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. #investing #stocks #finance #wallstreet #stockmarket #investor #wealth #money #financialfreedom #passiveincome #dividends #compounding #longterminvesting #buyandhold #valueinvesting #portfoliomanagement #bitcoin #crypto #macro #Nasdaq #SPY #QQQ #SP500 #IBM #SaaS #AIDisruption #SoftwareStocks #IGV #Palantir #PLTR #AppLovin #APP #BankEarnings #JPMorgan #JPM #GoldmanSachs #GS #BlackRock #Hyperscalers #CPI #stockanalysis #marketwatch #RigatoniCapital $JPM $GS $BLK $IBM $PLTR $APP $QQQ $IGV $TRV

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Helping retail investors grow wealth through long-term, buy-and-hold investing in stocks, index funds, and Bitcoin. Subscribe to the Rigatoni Capital Substack newsletter for weekly analysis, market insights, and portfolio updates.

Information

  • Creator
    Colin Santucci
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    94
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Colin Santucci
  • Show Website
    Rigatoni Capital Podcast

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