Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference Podcast (CREIC)

Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference
  • 5.0 (4)
  • Investing

Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference Podcast Hosted by Archer and Harry, the AI brains behind the conference. Every episode, they break down what's moving in commercial real estate, who's building what, and why the smartest operators in the game are invited to CREIC.

  1. 2d ago

    Capital Moves Faster Than Physics

    AI companies now occupy 10% of San Francisco's office market. 8.5M SF, up from 1.1M SF in 2022. Our research shows 700% growth in four years. Retailers posted a net loss of 144 stores through July, but total square footage is up 26.1M SF. Average new store: 19,350 SF. Average closure: 10,860 SF. Capital is consolidating, not retreating. Texas paused new data center approvals. ERCOT faces 474 gigawatts of connection requests. 5x peak demand. 90% from data centers. Governor Abbott ordered audit of 250-300 projects. Grid capacity is the new deal killer. The common thread: capital moves faster than physics. The operators winning are the ones who see physical constraints before capital gets trapped behind them.  Sponsored by Rise48 Equity. rise48.com

  2. 6d ago

    The $65B Maturity Wall Is Finally Here

    The $65B CMBS maturity wall is here. $37 billion has zero extension options. Refinancing pain is real. Borrowers who locked at 3% are now facing 6-7% rates or higher. Equity injections required. Over half of maturing properties need fresh borrower capital just to refinance. Distress is climbing. CMBS distress at 7.86%. Seriously delinquent loans at 7.6%. Office and hotels hit hardest. Lenders are done extending terms and forcing asset-level decisions now. Forced sellers are emerging. Distressed inventory is hitting the market at levels unseen since 2009. The window is opening. Operators with dry powder and clean balance sheets are positioned to move. Sponsored by Rise48 Equity. rise48.com

  3. Aug 12

    1031s and Chicken Sandwiches

    Private investors are trading apartment buildings for Chick-fil-A and Chipotle. This is not a joke. It's the most active capital rotation in retail real estate right now. August 2026 data confirms it. Marcus & Millichap closed a Chick-fil-A in Hixson, Tennessee for approximately $2.8 million, all cash, 1031 exchange buyer from Florida, 15-year ground lease, 10% rent bumps. Described as Tennessee's lowest cap rate ever for a single-tenant Chick-fil-A transaction.  Commercial Search reports private investors are exchanging out of California multifamily into NNN restaurants in Tampa and Austin. Single-tenant net lease retail transactions are up 18% year-over-year. Private buyers account for 71% of activity. The drivers: tax efficiency via 1031 exchanges, cost segregation, and bonus depreciation; management intensity reduction; Sun Belt migration; and credit tenant stability from national brands like Chipotle and Chick-fil-A. This episode breaks down why exhausted multifamily investors from the 2020-2021 vintage are using the 1031 exchange pipeline as an escape hatch, and why the numbers say it's working.  Episode sponsored by Rise48 Equity. rise48.com

  4. Aug 10

    Vanessa in Canton

    Vanessa Haynes spent Hall of Fame Week in Canton, Ohio networking and deepening relationships ahead of the gathering. For those who don't know, Vanessa is the daughter of Mike Haynes. NFL legend. Hall of Famer. Arguably the greatest cornerback to ever play the game. The invite-only nature is partly driven by Vanessa's network requirements. High-profile contacts require event exclusivity as a condition of attendance. This episode clears up the misconception that this is a pro athlete event, it's not. The fall is mid-NFL season. Any athlete-adjacent attendance would be family members or retired players. The primary focus remains commercial real estate. Active investors, passive investors, operators, deal sponsors, LPs, service providers, brokers. Every guest, invite, and sponsor has been handpicked by Cameron, Adam, and Vanessa. No call to action. If you know, you know. Episode sponsored by Rise 48 Equity - rise48.com

  5. Aug 5

    Mega-Leases: Industrial's Second Act

    93.6M SF leased in H1 2026 industrial (+26% YoY per CBRE)38 mega industrial leases (≥1M SF) signed in H1 2026, more than double H1 2025Industrial demand driven by reshoring, e-commerce saturation, and permanent logistics infrastructure requirementsMarket bifurcation: generic bulk warehouse struggling vs. strategic logistics with rail access, last-mile positioning, and modern specs thrivingCapital is deploying at scale, not retreating. Tenants optimizing total cost of occupancy (labor, transportation, energy, speed-to-market) over simple rent per square footNew supply moderating due to elevated construction costs and financing, creating rent growth setup in right submarkets

  6. Aug 3

    Beyond the Trough

    Public Storage closed its 10.5B acquisition of National Storage Affiliates on July22,2026. Combined entity: 4,500+facilities, 330 Mrentable SF,77B enterprise valuePSA also acquiring Public Storage Canada for $1.2B USDSmartStop merging sponsored funds SST VI and SSGT III in $1.2B all-stock dealBrookfield and GIC completed A$6.7B take-private of Australia's National Storage REIT (largest ASX REIT take-private ever)StorageMart acquired 15 NYC properties for $1B (1.3M SF)Transaction volume: ~$6B through Nov 2025 (double 2024's $3B). H1 2026: $2.8B. Pricing up 26% to $123/SF per Yardi MatrixSector values fell ~25% from peak by Q2 2025 per Nuveen Real Estate. Q2 2025 identified as troughYield reset: 18-20% returns post-pandemic → 10-12% expected nowDevelopment pipeline collapsing: 400 facilities (2025), 650 (2026), 1,000+ (2027-28) per Newmark94.1% of lenders still actively funding self-storage per DXD Capital 2025 surveyOnly 11% of Americans moved in 2024, down from 14.3% a decade prior per Point2Homes

  7. Jul 30

    The Tax Cliff

    Treasury working paper: $75B in deferred capital gains outstanding across ~12,800 QOFs and ~41,000 investors as of end of 2024Typical OZ investor: $738K adjusted gross income; 85% are individualsHard deadline: all deferred gains recognized by Dec. 31, 2026; tax due April 15, 2027 regardless of whether the fund asset is soldBasis step-ups: 15% for investments held 7+ years (in by Dec. 31, 2019); 10% for 5+ years (in by Dec. 31, 2021); post-2021 investments get no step-upRecognition formula: lesser of remaining deferred gain or FMV of fund interest on Dec. 31, 2026, minus any basis step-upPartnership trap: modified passthrough formula ignores net FMV; investors may recognize full deferred gain even if fund interest is underwater due to debt allocations and prior distributionsTax rates: up to 20% federal LTCG + 3.8% NIIT = 23.8%; state non-conformity in CA and NY may create additional liability10-year hold benefit survives: appreciation on QOF investment after 2026 remains tax-free if held 10 yearsOne Big Beautiful Bill Act (July 2025) made OZs permanent; new framework effective Jan. 1, 2027: 5-year deferral, 10% step-up, rural funds eligible for 30% step-upIRS Notice 2026-40 (June 2026): original deferred gains cannot be re-deferred into new QOFs under the 2027 regime

  8. Jul 28

    The Refinance Gap

    Trepp: ~$65B private-label CMBS maturing H2 2026, but ~$28B has extension options pushing to 2027799 hard-maturity loans ($15.1B) analyzed; $16.2B theoretical refinance capacity in aggregate54% of hard-maturity balance ($8.1B) needs fresh equity; $5.6B needs 20%+ cash-inInterest-only: $8.2B maturing, only $6.8B refinance capacity; 80% need cash-in, 61% need 20%+Amortizing: $6.9B maturing, $9.4B capacity; only 23% need cash-in, 9% need 20%+Office: $4.8B hard maturities; 63% need cash-in, 56% need 20%+Mixed-use: 80% need equity, 76% need 20%+New York: $627M refinance gap, 40% of all loans needing 20%+ paydownsDebt yield is the scoreboard: 2024-2025 loans that paid off averaged 13-14%; non-payers averaged 9% or below2026 total hard maturities: $76.6B; 36% ($27.3B) at or below 8% debt yield39% of hard maturities concentrated in Q4One New York Plaza ($835M, 2.6M SF): 6.5% debt yield, modified and extended to 2028CMBS office delinquency hit all-time high of 12.34% in January 2026

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About

Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference Podcast Hosted by Archer and Harry, the AI brains behind the conference. Every episode, they break down what's moving in commercial real estate, who's building what, and why the smartest operators in the game are invited to CREIC.

Information

  • Creator
    Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    73
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Commercial Real Estate Investment Conference