The Signal by #NoVendors

Jeff Swan

Real-world signals that tell B2G sellers, marketers, and founders where the opportunity actually is. Policy shifts, funding changes, market chaos, leadership moves, and the evidence-based strategies that separate the people who react from the people who saw it coming. jeffswan18.substack.com

  1. 5d ago

    Your AI Bill Shouldn't Scare You

    Episode 13: Your AI Bill Shouldn't Scare You Most operators looking at AI see the headline pricing and budget for that. What they miss is the way AI tools actually charge, which is by token consumption. Long chatty inputs and detailed outputs both consume tokens, and the bill arrives at the end of the month based on what you used. The fix is not about using less AI. The fix is matching the model you are using to the task you are trying to accomplish. What you'll hear: - Why AI bills surprise operators and what's actually being measured (tokens, not seats) - The three model tiers - premium, workhorse, budget - and how they price differently - A real comparison where the same task cost $1,000 on premium and $42 on budget - Three questions for matching the model to the task (complexity, volume, judgment) - How caching and batching compound the savings - A real example of how SOS Signals uses all three tiers in a coordinated workflow The framework is a compressed version of Decision Four in The High-Stakes AI Playbook. The book covers the full build versus buy decision tree and the architecture choices that determine whether AI is a cost line or a profit lever. The manuscript is open for early access reads. Reply to the newsletter or DM me on LinkedIn for a copy. Find more at outboundsos.com Subscribe to the #NoVendors newsletter at jeffswan18.substack.com Get full access to #NoVendors by Jeff Swan at jeffswan18.substack.com/subscribe

    14 min
  2. May 26

    How To Use AI Without Breaking What Works

    The Signal E12: Amplify, Don't Replace Humans Big Tech is selling owners a story about AI that says cut staff, deploy AI, and watch the stock surge. That playbook works for Big Tech. It does not work for businesses where people are on the job site, in the field, in the clinic, or in the truck. This episode walks through three real AI deployments from high-stakes businesses and ends with the three-question test I run before any deployment touches a client company. What you'll hear: - Why the Big Tech AI playbook fails in businesses with hands-on operations - How a live flood intake agent amplifies field assessments without replacing the human walking the property - The mining ops manager's four-question test for any new technology (easier, faster, safer, better) - Why AI-generated cold emails make every seller sound the same, and how to use AI for sales without losing your voice - The three-question test I run before any AI deployment at a client company - Why the People Protection Principle is the rule that holds all of this together The three-question test: 1. Can it deliver without staff reduction in 12 months? 2. Are the people affected the ones carrying institutional knowledge? 3. Have you measured team experience as carefully as financials? Three yes answers means the deployment respects the People Protection Principle. Any no is a signal to slow down. The People Protection Principle is one of seven critical decisions in The High-Stakes AI Playbook, launching Q3 2026. The manuscript is open for early access reads. Reply to the newsletter or DM me on LinkedIn for a copy. Find more at outboundsos.com Subscribe to the #NoVendors newsletter at jeffswan18.substack.com Get full access to #NoVendors by Jeff Swan at jeffswan18.substack.com/subscribe

    11 min
  3. I Wrote a Book About AI and People. It's Time to Send the Manuscript.

    May 19

    I Wrote a Book About AI and People. It's Time to Send the Manuscript.

    Big Tech is telling owners they have to build with AI or get left behind. That story is wrong about how most real businesses actually work. This episode opens with three patterns from a year of building AI agents alongside hands-on owners and CEOs of high-stakes companies. - AI moves fast (and breaks things every model update). - Specificity hurts AI performance (which is why knowing when to deploy generative versus deterministic software matters). - Hallucinations make blind trust dangerous (which is why every Signal we build runs through human verification). Then the announcement. I have written The High-Stakes AI Playbook, covering seven critical decisions hands-on operators need to make before deploying AI. Targeting Q3 2026 launch. The book is for owners and CEOs of high-stakes businesses with real choice about how AI fits into their operations. It is not for companies in declining industries making survival decisions, or public-company CEOs operating under short-term fiduciary mandates. The manuscript is going out to a thousand operators, analysts, and commentators. Honest reviews from real operators may end up in the foreword. What you will take away: - Three patterns that surface in every AI build for high-stakes operators - A framework for when to deploy generative AI versus deterministic software - The case for keeping humans accountable in the loop - How to get a copy of the manuscript Your move: If you are running a high-stakes company and want a copy of the manuscript, watch your inbox, reach out by DM, or email. Honest feedback is what I am asking for. Find more at outboundsos.com Newsletter at jeffswan18.substack.com Get full access to #NoVendors by Jeff Swan at jeffswan18.substack.com/subscribe

    12 min
  4. May 12

    The Market Is at Record Highs, and Your Sales Are Flat. Both Things Are True.

    Markets are at record highs. Most sellers are reporting flat or down numbers against last year. The disconnect is the story of this episode. I break down the three categories of government activity creating buying triggers in 2026: tax incentives, direct funding programs, and policy mandates. Real examples include IRS Section 179 (where one auto dealer used the 100% same-year write-off to 5X commercial van sales), Canadian healthcare innovation funding tied to the top five priorities across health authorities, and the broader pattern of policy mandates from EV rebates to sunsetting unsafe technology. The episode closes with an 8-step play for finding the programs relevant to your industry, building a targeted campaign around one offer, and executing with the authority of someone who showed up with the answer already mapped. What you'll take away: - The three categories of government-led buying triggers worth tracking - A real case study (Section 179, luxury auto dealer, 5X sales lift) - An 8-step play you can run this week to find programs relevant to your segment - Why sellers who align with policy will outperform sellers blaming the economy in 2026 One reminder: I am not a tax accountant. All tax examples are illustrative. Consult your professional. Resources mentioned: - IRS Section 179 - National Research Council Canada IRAP - Federal and provincial healthcare priorities (Canada) Your challenge: Pick one program in your industry, find it before the end of the week, and reply with what you found. I read every response. Find more at outboundsos.com Newsletter at jeffswan18.substack.com Get full access to #NoVendors by Jeff Swan at jeffswan18.substack.com/subscribe

    12 min
  5. May 5

    Why AI Won't Replace YOU

    After a year of building AI products for sales teams in high-stakes government markets, the question I keep getting asked hasn't changed. People want to know if AI is going to replace them. My answer hasn't changed either. In this episode, I walk through three places I've deployed AI in real businesses. SOS Signals for B2G research, a voice onboarding agent for a colleague's fast-growing services company, and a healthcare innovation that's in early pilot. Three different problems, three different agents, one principle underneath all of them. In this episode The Sam Altman moment that sparked this conversation, and why AI founder commentary keeps making working people uneasy How SOS Signals went from a book research project on B2G markets to an agentic product that saves senior sellers hundreds of hours per proposal The six months of structural framework-building required to get AI to deliver consistent results across different industries, clients, and regions Why a voice onboarding agent loaded with founder knowledge solves attrition problems that growing companies can't fix by hiring more trainers How the same systems thinking applied to healthcare procurement is helping close the gap between government-funded patient care initiatives and the vendors who can deliver on them Why AI lies even on simple factual questions, and what that means for any operator trying to use these tools without verification The principle that connects all three case studies and explains why some AI deployments succeed while others produce noise Key takeaway AI works as a complement and amplifier to great people. The operators who learn to direct these tools come out of this transition stronger than they went in. Be the Human Boss of the technology. Mentioned in this episode SOS Signals, the agentic research product for sales teams selling into government and government-adjacent markets The #NoVendors book project, original research that became the foundation for SOS Signals The voice onboarding agent built for a colleague's growing services company to solve attrition during rapid growth Healthcare procurement pilot, early-stage work to close the gap between funded patient flow initiatives and qualified vendors Watch the video version YouTube: https://youtu.be/b_wsKQ6im-E Subscribe to The Signal The Signal is a weekly podcast on what it takes to win in high-stakes government-shaped markets, where AI deployment, operator judgment, and human amplification meet. Subscribe on Substack to get every episode delivered to your inbox along with weekly observations on building AI for real businesses, or follow/subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Get full access to #NoVendors by Jeff Swan at jeffswan18.substack.com/subscribe

    13 min
  6. Apr 28

    I Told a Unicorn CEO to Wait. I Wasn't Sure I Was Right.

    A founder I was advising once asked me whether we should hire fifty business development reps to scale his global team faster. I told him to wait. What happened next is the story behind this episode. Four months of working the formula. Six meetings per rep per month, climbing to fourteen. A plateau that taught me something I've carried into every founder conversation since: optimization works fast, and even working systems have limits, and headcount won't override either of those. This episode is about what a sales formula actually contains, why founder motion is real but unscalable, and the three questions every founder in a long-cycle B2G market should ask before opening their next sales req. If you've ever sat across from a CEO who wanted to hire faster than the formula could support, this episode is for you. If you are that CEO right now, this is the one to listen to twice. — In this episode: (00:00) Why hiring at the wrong time is the most expensive decision (00:30) The Mediterranean unicorn story (02:20) The four-month optimization that changed everything (03:03) Two lessons from scaling to twenty-five reps in six continents (03:34) Founder motion vs. documented formula (04:55) When the founder is still the closer (06:14) What a sales formula actually contains (07:43) Why this matters more in long-cycle B2G (09:15) The three questions to ask before your next hire (11:13) Why patience is the real work (12:39) Headcount comes after the formula, not before — Read the companion article on LinkedIn: Why Hiring More Reps Can Make Your GTM Worse https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-hiring-more-reps-can-make-your-gtm-worse-jeff-swan-jmq3c Watch the full episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/7QaWGlRfPfs — The Signal is a weekly podcast about what it takes to win in high-stakes, government-shaped markets. New episodes every Tuesday. If something in this episode helped, the best thing you can do is share it with one founder who's about to make the hiring decision. Have a question for a future episode? Reply to this email or leave a comment below. Get full access to #NoVendors by Jeff Swan at jeffswan18.substack.com/subscribe

    13 min
  7. Apr 21

    No Prime, No Problem

    Most subcontractors selling to government have the same quiet problem. Their pipeline depends on Prime contractors remembering to bring them in. That works until it doesn't. In this episode, Jeff walks through what happened when he tried to solve this problem for a flood mitigation company in the years after Hurricane Sandy. The RFP tools failed. The Prime networking worked sometimes. What actually produced a 2x revenue jump in five months was something else entirely. He also connects the play to the marine work SOS Signals is running now, and explains why sub-contractors across transit, infrastructure, and public works can adapt the same approach. What's covered: - Why subscribing to ConstructConnect accelerated pain instead of growth - The limits of Prime networking as a sole go-to-market strategy - The moment city councils in Philadelphia and New Jersey started asking questions - How 4,000+ global project case studies earned a shortlist seat before any RFP existed - The paper trail that signals a marine RFP 6 to 12 months before it publishes - The question every subcontractor should be able to answer about their buyers Referenced in this episode: ConstructConnect. Hurricane Sandy. 15-foot flood barrier case studies. The Signal podcast previous episodes on pre-RFP timing. Ask from the episode: What's your client's Hurricane Sandy? Send Jeff a note and tell him. Get full access to #NoVendors by Jeff Swan at jeffswan18.substack.com/subscribe

    12 min
  8. Apr 14

    Pipeline Day Is Back. The Rules Are Different.

    I used to celebrate 125 cold calls in a single hour. Reps on my teams would race each other for bragging rights, free lunches, and a spot at the top of the leaderboard. We called it Pipeline Day, and it was one of the best things I ever brought to a sales floor. Last Thursday, I brought it back. I sent 20 emails through one channel, and every message was built from verified Signal data. I got the best reply rates of my career. The rules are different now. The Problem The original Pipeline Day was built on volume, and for years it delivered. The energy was real, the concentration was real, and the team showed up together. I scaled this model across multiple clients and later into a community of over a thousand sellers through RevLeague, where we turned it into a daily power hour with leaderboards, competitions, and some of the most fun I have ever had in sales. What I saw over time was that volume without intelligence eventually hits a ceiling. Automated outreach flooded buyer inboxes, and reply rates dropped across the board. The lists were not good enough to justify the effort we were putting into them, and the results became random even when the energy stayed high. I was watching talented people work harder on accounts that were never going to convert because nobody had mapped whether those accounts were actually in a buying window. The Proof Last Thursday, our internal team ran Pipeline Day using SOS Signals for the first time. I had 20 accounts. One colleague had 10, and another had 15. Every account was selected because the signals confirmed a buying window was open or about to open. We chose email as the only channel. Every message was built from Signal Strategic Notes, which provided Tier-1 verified evidence of each account's buying window, incorporating specific mandates, funding changes, and program indicators. No templates and no automated sequences. Every outreach led with something the buyer did not expect us to know, and the tone was designed to feel like a partner sharing intelligence, not a salesperson asking for a meeting. Intelligence applied to concentrated effort produced the highest reply rates I have seen in a single session of doing this work. The Risk I am seeing too many companies still running pipeline generation on lists they are not confident in. They are burning the motivation of their best people on accounts that may not have a buying window open for another year, and the results feel random because they are random. The companies that figure out how to combine the energy of a concentrated Pipeline Day with verified Signal intelligence are the ones that will stop guessing and start showing up to conversations their buyers actually want to have. Volume is the grave of profit, and that includes the volume of effort aimed at the wrong accounts. The Save Pipeline Day is back, and the rules are different. The original version was a three-hour session built on volume. The Signal Edition took one hour, used 45 accounts across three people, and produced better results than any volume session I have ever run. That is a 66% reduction in time with a higher conversion rate, because the intelligence did the heavy lifting before we ever opened our inboxes. You do not need 125 calls. You need five accounts with a mapped buying window, one hour of concentrated outreach, and a message that presents you as a partner who understands their business, not a vendor looking for a meeting. Lead with insights, earn the right to ask. Over the next few episodes, I will be sharing the progress we are making with Pipeline Day, including what is working, what is not, and what we are learning about timing outreach to the buying window. If you want to try it yourself, start with the Buying Window Mapper from last week and use step four to build your Pipeline Day list. In this episode - The origin of Pipeline Day and how it started with my colleague Ian Selbie at a startup we were both consulting with - How we scaled it through RevLeague into a daily power hour reaching over a thousand sellers, complete with leaderboards and GIF celebrations - Why volume-based Pipeline Day stopped producing results as automated outreach flooded buyer inboxes - How our team ran Pipeline Day: Signal Edition with 45 accounts across three people, one channel, and verified signal data - Why concentrated effort on signal-backed accounts outperforms volume every time - The systematic lie that volume plus automation equals pipeline Resources Download: The Buying Window Mapper (4-step worksheet from E05) [link] Referenced: Ian Selbie and RevLeague (RevGenius community) Previous Episode: E05, When On-Time Is Too Late (listen) Listen and Subscribe Substack: jeffswan18.substack.com Spotify: [link] Apple Podcasts: [link] YouTube: Outbound SOS Want to challenge for Pipeline Day? DM me on LinkedIn or drop a comment. I will set up the rules, and we will run it together. The Signal is a weekly podcast by Jeff Swan, founder of Outbound SOS and creator of SOS Signals. Each episode covers what it takes to win in high-stakes, government-shaped markets. Get full access to #NoVendors by Jeff Swan at jeffswan18.substack.com/subscribe

    11 min

About

Real-world signals that tell B2G sellers, marketers, and founders where the opportunity actually is. Policy shifts, funding changes, market chaos, leadership moves, and the evidence-based strategies that separate the people who react from the people who saw it coming. jeffswan18.substack.com