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Konstantin Milevskiy
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Investigations into Federal Reserve policy, tested against 90 years of archival documents.

  1. Jul 10

    The Slate: The Inference traced a rate cut timed for December, waiting on a supply-side finding the new task forces were to certify by year-end. On July 9 the Federal Reserve named the people who will certify it. Read against what each has spent a decad

    Warsh named fifteen independent experts to examine whether the Fed's methods can be improved. Each panel pairs a directional coalition with a credible counterweight: the coalition sets the direction, the counterweight sets the boundary — and the opponents he chose are what make the result credible.

  2. Jun 18

    The Inference: The first meeting under the new chair installed the framework the series predicted — and set the schedule that delivers the cut.

    Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting installed the framework the series predicted, on a schedule that points to a December cut — licensed by a productivity payoff the Fed cannot yet measure...

  3. May 22

    The Game: The program has been announced. The implementation has begun. The chair does not need to win a majority for a standalone cut on the merits of incoming inflation data, because he has changed what the committee will be voting on.

    Kevin Warsh's confirmation testimony committed the next Federal Reserve chairmanship to a coordinated balance-sheet and rate-cut program. He was sworn in and elected FOMC chair on May 22. The Coordination documented the architecture; The Analogue documented the look-through framework now being applied. The Game reads the opening moves.

  4. May 2

    The Analogue: Why the doctrine that has held since 2008 was built for the cases where oil rose and fell.

    The Federal Reserve's look-through doctrine works when energy shocks mean-revert. The 1973–74 OPEC episode is the case where it didn't, and the modern record shows the framework cannot tell, in real time, which kind of shock it is operating on. The Iran war presents four channels — chokepoint tolls, alliance fracture, reserve diversification, fiscal commitment — on which the price is unlikely to revert on the funds-rate cycle. The 2026 Committee has begun by treating this as one of the cases the doctrine handles correctly. The archive suggests it is one of the others.

  5. Apr 26

    The Dollar: The fifth pillar the doctrine does not name is the institution's most documented operational commitment.

    The fifth pillar the doctrine does not name is the institution's most documented operational commitment. Swap lines, the Exchange Stabilization Fund, FIMA repo facilities, dollar hegemony as enforcement mechanism — all named in the archive, none named in the doctrine.

  6. Apr 25

    The Test: The roadmap maps four pillars and depends on five. The fifth is the one the doctrine does not name.

    The roadmap maps four pillars and depends on five. The fifth — the one the doctrine does not name — is the operational commitment the Federal Reserve has documented most thoroughly and discussed most reluctantly. Until the fifth is named, the four are aspirational.

  7. Apr 24

    The Coordination: The axis authorizes four instruments. The balance sheet requires a fifth. The seat that holds the fifth is not in the axis.

    Warsh has committed the next chairmanship under oath to a couple trillion dollars over time in concert with the Treasury Secretary. The balance sheet requires a fifth instrument the four-pillar doctrine does not name. The seat that holds it is not in the axis, and the reform it depends on has been attempted five times and failed.

  8. Apr 23

    The Axis: Three actors, one architecture, and the coordination register that debuted within twenty-four hours of the hearing

    The doctrine Kevin Warsh carried into his confirmation hearing is not his alone. It is shared with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and hedge-fund principal Stanley Druckenmiller — across fourteen months of public record, in complementary registers, with a coordination register that debuted operationally within twenty-four hours of the hearing.

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Investigations into Federal Reserve policy, tested against 90 years of archival documents.

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