World at Odds

Marty
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World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world. I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events. We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident? The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.

Episodes

  1. MAY 10

    World at Odds Episode08 | Polymarket's Hidden Fees, Senate Paradox & Belgium at 50-to-1

    Andrew's up 150% on the year — but sitting in all cash with nothing to bet on. Matt walks through his best opportunities right now: Democrats to take the House at 83¢, hantavirus at 10¢, the aliens bet, and Ken Paxton's Texas Senate runoff. Then we get into the real stuff: how to actually make consistent money on Polymarket. Bet what you know, chase reward markets, use limit orders, and think like a trader — not a gambler. Andrew breaks down his weather swing-trade strategy (buy at 30¢, sell at 35¢, done for the day), and Matt digs into Polymarket's fee structure — 1.8% on crypto, 1.0% on politics, 0.75% on sports, plus maker rebates that can actually put you in the green. We also spotted something weird: Republicans are favored to win the Senate at 53%, but if you add up the individual seat markets, Democrats are winning more seats. Low liquidity or real signal? We'll deep-dive midterms next episode. New bets: Both of us are buying Belgium to win the World Cup at 2¢. 🕐 Timestamps00:00 — Andrew's gambling confession01:10 — Best bets right now: House, hantavirus, aliens, Paxton08:30 — How to make money on Polymarket11:49 — Trading vs. holding: swing-trade strategy16:07 — Polymarket fee breakdown21:33 — Senate midterms: the odds paradox26:53 — New bets: Belgium World Cup at 2¢29:51 — What makes us optimistic right now 🔗 LinksPolymarket Midterms Dashboard: https://polymarket.com/predictions/midtermsArbitrage Calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculatorPrediction Market Converter: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/prediction-market-converterScorecard: https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecardWorld Cup Betting Strategy: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/world-cup-field-betting-strategy

    32 min

  2. APR 26

    World at Odds Episode07 | Masters Meltdown, World Cup Basket Strategy, Alien Market Glitches, Andrew Becomes a Weatherman, & NHL Playoff Picks

    Matt and Andrew return to break down their Masters disasters — Andrew had the winner (McIlroy at 7¢) and sold him drunk on pasta in Italy, while Matt lost 8 units betting against him. They unpack the "equal shares under a dollar" strategy and apply it to the 2026 World Cup, where the entire field's overround is just 2.2%. Matt reveals a compounding "money glitch" on the alien confirmation market, Andrew discovers weather betting as his new edge (including the guy who gamed a Paris weather station with a hairdryer), and they rant about bloated playoff formats in the NHL, NBA, and rugby sevens. Bets of the week: Andrew goes long on London hitting 18°C, Matt buys a 7-team NHL Stanley Cup basket for 11 units. Timestamps:00:00 — Masters postmortem: Andrew's pasta-fueled meltdown04:40 — Matt's Masters losses & the "set it and forget it" lesson06:36 — Andrew's Italy trip recap08:49 — World Cup 2026 basket strategy & overround math13:17 — World Cup excitement scale & bloated tournament formats16:08 — NHL & NBA playoff rant (overtime, seven-game series, mid-season tournaments)18:10 — Alien market update: the monthly rollover "money glitch"21:45 — Weather betting: local APIs, Hong Kong heat, and the hairdryer hack27:10 — Bets of the week: London weather & NHL Stanley Cup basket Free betting tools, blog posts, and our full scorecard at worldatodds.com Try the Arbitrage Calculator: worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator Read: "How I Made $2,900 Betting the Texas Senate Primary" — worldatodds.com/blog/texas-primary-edge Follow us on X: https://x.com/worldatodds

    32 min

  3. APR 5

    Odds Episode06 | Polymarket Fees, Democrat Nomination Arbs, Masters Picks, SpaceX Ticker Bet, & Still Undefeated

    Polymarket drops trading fees — we break down what it means for takers and makers. Matt reveals his "free money" strategy buying the entire Democratic 2028 field for a guaranteed ROI, and we both lock in our Masters golf picks ahead of next weekend. Plus: our SpaceX ticker symbol bet (X vs. Other), Final Four profit updates, a Lyon mayoral election win, and the birth of ESUaD — Equal Shares Under a Dollar. (00:00) Intro(01:00) Polymarket Fee Announcement(02:54) Democrat Nomination Arbitrage Strategy(10:08) AI-Powered Betting Dashboards(11:16) Rapid Fire: Serious vs. Not Serious Candidates(13:08) AOC & the Nate Silver Take(16:48) Good Buy / Bad Buy Preview(20:03) The Masters — Our Picks & Strategies(27:02) Final Four & Arizona Profit Update(29:05) World Cup Teaser(30:20) Old Bets Wrap-Up & Lyon Mayoral Election Win(32:36) New Bet: SpaceX Ticker Symbol (X vs. Other)(37:06) ESUaD & ClosingFree betting tools, blog posts, and our full scorecard at worldatodds.com Try the Arbitrage Calculator: worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculator Read: "How I Made $2,900 Betting the Texas Senate Primary" — worldatodds.com/blog/texas-primary-edge Follow us on X: https://x.com/worldatodds

    39 min

  4. MAR 21

    World at Odds Episode05 | Still Undefeated, Kalshi v. Arizona, World Baseball Classic Arbs, & French Mayoral Elections

    Still undefeated. Five for five on resolved bets — including Tim nailing the Oscars Best Picture pick from Episode 2. This week we dig into the prediction market industry itself: Kalshi just raised a billion dollars at a $22B valuation while simultaneously getting sued in Arizona. Is it a prediction market or a gambling operation? Meanwhile, Polymarket and Kalshi are both catching heat over "death markets," nuclear detonation bets, and the Netanyahu hoax. We break down what's real outrage and what's moral grandstanding. Matt walks through his World Baseball Classic betting strategy — finding massive price discrepancies between sportsbooks and Polymarket (Italy at 35:1 on OddsChecker vs. 144:1 on Polymarket), trading in and out of positions live, and why the U.S. was overindexed. Andrew discovers 5-minute Bitcoin markets mid-recording and immediately starts live betting during the show. We also talk about following whale wallets on prediction markets, a tool called Predictfolio for tracking top traders, and why you should be skeptical of "insider" trading narratives — including a wallet that just lost $120K betting Netanyahu was dead. New bets this week: Matt: Arizona to win March Madness at 12¢ (1 unit)Andrew: Grégory Doucet to win the Lyon mayoral election at 80¢ (5 units)Links: Website: https://www.worldatodds.comFree tools (arb calculator, hedge calculator, odds converter): https://www.worldatodds.com/toolsArbitrage calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/arbitrage-calculatorHedge calculator: https://www.worldatodds.com/tools/hedge-calculatorScorecard (live bet tracker): https://www.worldatodds.com/scorecardNew blog — How to read Polymarket prices vs. sportsbook odds: https://www.worldatodds.com/blog/polymarket-odds-explainedPredictfolio (whale wallet tracker): https://predictfolio.comOddsChecker (odds aggregator): https://oddschecker.com

    26 min

  5. MAR 7

    World at Odds Episode04 | AI Trading Fails, Texas Election Edge, Masters Arbitrage

    In this episode of World at Odds, Andrew and I try to build AI trading bots for Polymarket. The experiment does not go well. One bot immediately nukes a bankroll by selling 93-cent shares for one cent. Good reminder that AI still needs adult supervision. We also break down a prediction market edge in the Texas Senate primary, where understanding runoff rules created a pricing opportunity most traders seemed to miss. Finally, we explore a potential Masters betting arbitrage strategy and whether AI can help test it. If you like prediction markets, probabilistic thinking, and finding edges in weird places, this episode is for you. Coming soon: WorldatOdds.com

    44 min

  6. MAR 2

    World at Odds Episode03 | Iran, Aliens, AI Bots

    Episode03: back with co-host Andrew. We explore some +EV bets on Iran, aliens (probably), and how to get started with bots...

    31 min

  7. FEB 15

    OddsOn Episode02 | Betting for Newbies, Kid Rock, Mid Terms

    Thanks to guest Tim Williams and especially to Kid Rock and Turning Point USA for making today's episode possible.

    22 min

  8. FEB 8

    OddsOn Episode01 | Super Bowl LX, Greenland, 2028 Election

    The first episode! OddsOn: let's gamble on anything. Covered today: Greenland, 2028 US Presidential Election, and Super Bowl LX. A special thanks to Andrew Genung for co-hosting . And a huge thank you to Steven H for always keeping me accountable to do this! This one is dedicated to you, sir.

    33 min
  • 8 Episodes

About

World at Odds is a podcast about probability in a polarized world. I’m Matt — a former pro poker player who spent five years making a living at the tables, and someone who’s been limited or banned by multiple tier-one sportsbooks after finding sustained edge in their markets. I’ve spent years studying incentives, pricing, and EV across sports, politics, and macro events. We break down major stories using logic instead of emotion. What is the market actually pricing in? Where is the crowd overconfident? The goal isn’t to win the argument. It’s to win in the long run.

Information

  • Creator
    Marty
  • Years Active
    2K
  • Episodes
    8
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Marty
  • Show Website
    World at Odds