The Gulf Stream Blues Podcast

Dave Keating
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Occasional podcasts, interviews and recordings from live book readings of The Owned Continent. davekeating.substack.com

  1. Live from GLOBSEC: Europe's establishment is still in denial mode

    May 24

    Live from GLOBSEC: Europe's establishment is still in denial mode

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.com GLOBSEC, an annual event that combines Davos and the MSC with a focus on central Europe, took place in Prague this week. Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues and Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch were both there moderating panels, and in this live video they discussed their observations from the conference and what it says about the readiness of Europe’s leaders to accept reality when it comes to the new USA. Also discussed: what is needed to make the EU ready to stand up to America and finally become a sovereign independent power - and why the establishment’s visceral reaction against treaty change is a major mistake. Posts mentioned during the video:

    5 min
  2. Will the Cyprus summit birth EU defence?

    Apr 23

    Will the Cyprus summit birth EU defence?

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.com In today’s Substack video I talked about the summit of EU prime ministers and presidents taking place in Cyprus today and the planned dinner discussion about the EU’s Article 42.7 inserted into the 2009 Lisbon Treaty and how it would work in practice.

    3 min
  3. Orban's defeat deals crippling blow to MAGA in Europe

    Apr 13

    Orban's defeat deals crippling blow to MAGA in Europe

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.com My quick take on what yesterday’s surprise tsunami of a defeat for Viktor Orban means both in practical terms for the EU and Ukraine and in more symbolic terms for the White House’s regime change efforts in Europe.

    2 min
  4. Quick take: Trump says he may pull US out of NATO

    Apr 1

    Quick take: Trump says he may pull US out of NATO

    This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit davekeating.substack.com Following similar threats over the past days from his secretary of state and secretary of war, Donald Trump has today said he is considering taking the United States out of NATO in retaliation for European countries not joining his war on Iran. But his words reflect a far more troubling reality than his empty threats: the US is already effectively out of NATO, even if it technically remains in. “I was never swayed by NATO. I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way,” Trump told The Telegraph newspaper in an apparent cold call. The comments came hours after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that if Europe doesn’t join this war then the US may leave NATO and pull its troops and bases out of Europe. “NATO wasn’t just about defending Europe, but allowing us to have military bases in Europe for our

    3 min
  5. How Trump‘s War in Iran Has Become Europe‘s Problem

    Mar 25

    How Trump‘s War in Iran Has Become Europe‘s Problem

    Donald Trump has been badgering European countries to join the Iran War now that he is losing it. But he did not consult them beforehand, and did not try to assemble a ‘coalition of the willing’ as George W. Bush did before the Iraq War. Now that he is flailing, he wants to draw Europeans into his mess. As one French general put it last week, Europeans joining this war now would be like buying a ticket for the Titanic after it already started sinking. And yet, we see some countries slowly getting drawn in - most notably the UK. I spoke with Luke Johnson from the Public Sphere Substack about how the war is impacting Europe and what European leaders should do. We discussed my Substack post from last week where I explored whether it would make sense to agree to Trump’s demand to send ships to the strait of Hormuz in exchange for concessions on Ukraine and tariffs. In the end, I concluded that such a bargain might sound like a smooth play at first, but when you fully explore it, you realise it doesn’t make any sense. We also discussed why Europe’s failure to ramp up renewables after the loss of Russian gas in 2022 has made it very vulnerable in the current crisis, particularly for the least-prepared countries including Germany and Italy. Unfortunately, I concluded, the instinct of many European leaders right now seems to be to halt climate action and renewables investment in reaction to the current crisis, as we saw at last week’s European Council summit. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davekeating.substack.com/subscribe

    26 min

  6. Mar 24

    Listen to tonight's interview at Librebook

    Thanks to everyone who came to The Owned Continent book reading and Q&A at Librebook bookstore tonight, it was a great conversation and I was really grateful for all the thoughtful questions from the audience. The conversation was hosted by Jakob Hanke Vela, Brussels Bureau Chief for the German newspaper Handelsblatt and former author of Politico Playbook. Stay tuned to the book’s events page for news about future readings in Brussels, London and Berlin! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davekeating.substack.com/subscribe

    1h 14m
  7. As Macron comes to Brussels, will he be tempted to play the Hormuz hero?

    Mar 18

    As Macron comes to Brussels, will he be tempted to play the Hormuz hero?

    Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues and Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch discussed how Macron's domestic political position might impact his decision on whether or not to send the French navy to the Strait of Hormuz. EU prime ministers are gathering in Brussels on Thursday to take stock of the global destabilisation caused by the American-Israeli war on Iran and whether they should accept Donald Trump's request for them to send ships to forcibly open the strait themselves. So far none of them have been interested. But could Macron's political troubles tempt him to engage in some foreign crusading? It wouldn't be the first time. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davekeating.substack.com/subscribe

    41 min
  8. Europe says no to joining Iran war. But will France waver?

    Mar 17

    Europe says no to joining Iran war. But will France waver?

    “Europe did not start this war,” Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign affairs chief, explained at last night’s press conference following a summit of foreign affairs ministers in Brussels which rejected the idea of sending ships to the Strait of Hormuz. Though she had come into the summit holding open the possibility that the EU mission of Operation Aspides which has been protecting shipping in the Red Sea could be expanded, Kallas left it reflecting the ver clear consensus that had been in the room: it would be an incredibly bad idea for European countries to send military vessels to the strait because it will drag Europe into the war and risks accomplishing the opposite of what they want: enlarging and prolonging the war. National officials were sounding a similar tone. “We did not start this war,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said yesterday. “The Americans chose this path, together with the Israelis.” Dave Keating from Gulf Stream Blues and Julien Hoez from The French Dispatch discussed the all-important role of France in this issue, given it is the only significant military power in the EU. While Germany and Italy have already delivered a firm no to Trump’s ask, France and the UK have not yet firmly ruled it out. Dave and Julien talked about how President Macron’s current ‘lame duck’ status, and the developments of Sunday’s elections in Paris and Marseille, could factor in to the decision. Trump told reporters yesterday that he is confident Macron will assist him. “I think he’s gonna help. I mean, I’ll let you know, I spoke to him yesterday.” Trump also said he was “not happy” with Keie Starmer for rebuffing him. Over the weekend Trump threatened that it will be “very bad for the future of NATO” if European countries refuse to follow his command to send ships to the strait. Posts mentioned in this video: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit davekeating.substack.com/subscribe

    41 min
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Occasional podcasts, interviews and recordings from live book readings of The Owned Continent. davekeating.substack.com

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