EconWorks Podcast

EconWorks

Industrial organization insights on antitrust, digital platforms, and competition in ecosystem markets. blog.econworks.com

  1. 1d ago

    How Cartels Fool Sophisticated Buyers—and How AI Could Help

    How can a cartel survive for years when its customers are sophisticated firms with substantial buying power? In episode 8 of How Cartels Really Work, we examine two large cases in history, the automobile parts cartels and the international vitamins cartel. Both involved suppliers selling to large businesses with professional purchasing departments. But some of these illegal agreements ran for a decade or more. Why didn’t their customers see the cartels? We begin with Costco’s buying practices. If suppliers want to raise their prices, Costco’s buyers examine the underlying costs and challenge any increases that don’t appear warranted. Sophisticated purchasing managers may have trouble figuring out if their suppliers are colluding. A company might hire economists to analyze the prices, costs, and bidding strategies of suppliers. However, it can be expensive to do detailed economic analysis on thousands of products. Artificial intelligence could alter that equation. AI may allow buyers to look at more transactions, identify suspect pricing patterns, and uncover alternative suppliers at a much lower cost. And here’s an intriguing possibility: Buyers might only have to show that a cartel is less profitable. AI could increase competitive pressure on suppliers and make some cartels harder to sustain if it helps customers identify better alternatives. AI could alter the economics of collusion by making buyers better at buying, right? Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/cartels-episode-8-the-biggest-cartels?r=562wri Explore more visual economics content: https://econworks.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3e Substack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe

    How Cartels Fool Sophisticated Buyers—and How AI Could Help
  2. 3d ago

    The Biggest Cartels You've Never Heard Of | Can AI Stop Them?

    How can a cartel survive for years when its customers are sophisticated firms with large buying power? Episode 8 of How Cartels Really Work looks at two big cases in history: automobile parts cartels and the international vitamins cartel. Both were suppliers selling to large businesses with professional purchasing departments. But some of these illegal deals lasted for a decade or more. Why didn't their customers see the cartels? Let's start with Costco's buying practices. Costco’s buyers look at the underlying costs when suppliers want to raise their prices and push back on any increases that don’t seem justified. For sophisticated purchasing managers, it may be difficult to tell if their suppliers are colluding. A firm might employ economists to analyze the prices, costs, and bidding strategies of suppliers. However, it can be costly to perform detailed economic analysis on thousands of products. Artificial intelligence could change that equation. AI might enable buyers to review more transactions, detect suspect pricing patterns, and identify alternative suppliers at a much lower cost. And here’s a tantalizing possibility: Buyers may be able to make a cartel less profitable without proving it exists. If AI enables customers to discover better alternatives, then that could increase competitive pressure on suppliers and make some cartels harder to sustain. Could AI change the economics of collusion by making buyers better at buying? Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/cartels-episode-8-the-biggest-cartels?r=562wri Explore more visual economics content: https://econworks.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3e Substack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe

    The Biggest Cartels You've Never Heard Of | Can AI Stop Them?
  3. Oct 22

    Why Cartels Collapse—and Why AI May Change That

    Cartels are unstable by nature. Members cheat, managers change, companies are sold, and participants can get away with less punishment by reporting the cartel before everybody else. When AI encounters that familiar process, what happens next? Join us for episode 7. We start with the European MCAA cartel. Clariant acquired Hoechst’s chemicals business in 1997; the cartel continued for a while, and Clariant later discovered the conduct and reported it to the European Commission. The announcement triggered an investigation by the Commission. That history reveals a new source of cartel instability that has been overlooked: the firms may remain constant, but the people and organizations within them change. AI complicates the narrative. If business divisions can have their pricing systems, senior management may see the results but be unaware of the strategies the systems have learned. An internal investigation may uncover substantial amounts of information but not the telltale signs of a human cartel—meetings, emails, or an explicit agreement. In contrast, the situation is with the DOJ’s RealPage case. RealPage involved a visible common pricing system and an alleged sharing of competitors' nonpublic information. But what if every landlord had their own autonomous AI and no confidential information was shared? Would investigators be looking at an AI agreement, or just interdependence, if their prices stayed coordinated? The law has a lot of experience distinguishing agreement from parallel behavior among humans. It has much less experience making the same sort of distinction when autonomous systems interact. Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/cartels-episode-7-why-cartels-collapseand?r=562wri Explore more visual economics content: https://econworks.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3e Substack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe

    Why Cartels Collapse—and Why AI May Change That
  4. Oct 21

    When Is a Discount a Wall? | FTC v. Syngenta & Corteva

    Discounts always feel like competition. Lower prices should help the customer and make rivals respond. But what if a big rebate is contingent not just on how much a customer buys from a company but on how little it buys from its competitors? In this episode of EconWorks, we examine the economics of loyalty discounts through FTC v. Syngenta & Corteva. Let’s start from the perspective of a pricing specialist. Quantity discounts and nonlinear pricing are perfectly normal responses to differences in willingness to pay. The problem is not price discrimination per se. Then a generic competitor comes in. If all the customer does is to preserve a big rebate by buying 90% or more of its requirements from the incumbent, suddenly buying one extra cheaper generic unit can be costly. So the key question is not about whether there was a discount. The answer is: What was the discount intended to buy? More purchases from the incumbent, or fewer purchases from the rival? We also consider the evidence that may differentiate the two explanations, including pricing documents, loyalty thresholds, generic entry, and the magnitude of the "loyalty cliff." Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/when-is-a-discount-a-wall?r=562wri Explore more visual economics content: https://econworks.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3e Substack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe

    When Is a Discount a Wall? | FTC v. Syngenta & Corteva
  5. Oct 20

    Why Cartels Collapse—and Why AI May Change That | Cartels Episode 7

    Why do cartels fall apart? The normal answer is cheat. A cartel member secretly cuts prices, another firm ratifies the deal, or someone runs to the authorities for leniency. But there’s another source of instability: organizations evolve. In Episode 7 of *How Cartels Really Work* we examine the European MCAA cartel and Clariant’s takeover of Hoechst’s chemical business. The cartel survived the change of ownership for some time, but Clariant later uncovered the conduct through its compliance efforts and sought leniency, which sparked the European Commission’s investigation. And then, what if the same story has artificial intelligence involved? A multi-product company may have separate pricing AIs running in different divisions. The senior management might see the profits, but they may not understand the strategies that the systems have learned. RealPage offers a useful comparison. Regulators might spot common pricing schemes and track the movement of nonpublic information among competitors. But what if every landlord had a different autonomous AI, no confidential data was shared, and the AIs still came up with coordinated-looking prices? The evidence can be voluminous. The interpretation of the law may not. In this episode, we disentangle human collusion, algorithm-assisted coordination, AI-to-AI coordination, and good old-fashioned interdependence—and why AI may make one traditional cartel-breaking mechanism less reliable. Read the full article and graphic analysis: https://blog.econworks.com/p/cartels-episode-7-why-cartels-collapseand?r=562wri Explore more visual economics content: https://econworks.com YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EconWorks-d3e Substack: https://blog.econworks.com This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.econworks.com/subscribe

    Why Cartels Collapse—and Why AI May Change That | Cartels Episode 7

About

Industrial organization insights on antitrust, digital platforms, and competition in ecosystem markets. blog.econworks.com