The Twilight of the Warlords more than the Twilight of the Gods, mind. Last night Binyamin Netanyahu went cap in hand to the President of the United States to ask for permission to defend his country by responding to Iranian attacks with Israeli counterattacks against Iranian national infrastructure. President Trump’s response was to tell him no, at least publicly. The Israeli counterattack was apparently attenuated by this command, if not halted, and designed to exact a price without escalating the conflict. The Iranian attack on Israel was brief, and likewise designed to exact a price for Israeli attacks against Iranian proxy Hizballah in Lebanon. In similar fashion the very limited disobedience from Netanyahu enables Witkoff and Kushner to go back to the Pakistani interlocutors and say, ‘we Americans are ready to be reasonable, but I can barely rein in this maniac Netanyahu!’ I often talk about the American and Israeli domestic political imperatives that drive war against Iran and Hizballah. I have in the past few months talked about the rift between the US and Israel on strategic objectives. Here we see that rift having significant effects. Neither President Trump nor Binyamin Netanyahu engaged Iran with strong strategy: they had vision, or at least vision statements; but unclear strategic pathways on the American side, perhaps clear operational pathways on the Israeli side but poor connections to their strategic aims (no nukes, no missiles, no proxies). They were clear in their risk management: the war would be limited to air power plus Israeli (and perhaps Kurdish) special forces. Apart from that, though; not much. When the going got tough and the Iranians blocked the Strait of Hormuz, we remembered Mike Tyson: ‘Kein Operationsplan reicht mit einiger Sicherheit über das erste Zusammentreffen mit der feindlichen Hauptmacht hinaus.’* Now they’re both going into autumn elections without victories to show for their efforts. Two men would lead their countries in permanent states of war against the implacable and unbeatable, and hold power if not office til their dying day. Each is ready to wave goodbye when the other outlives his usefulness. Each is at risk of appearing to be the tool of the other. Both paddle their respective canoes towards the twilight, occasionally shouting real or fake f-bombs at each other. Netanyahu exits pursued by the public prosecutor and the younger, fitter figure of Naftali Bennet. Who follows President Trump out the door? Perhaps it’s the younger, fitter figure of the Albanian property developer Ivanka Trump, accepting the Republican nomination in 2028, becoming America’s first Jewish president, and birthing the dynasty that Rose Kennedy never could. Xi Jinping will be immensely pleased. He might already know that, in the words of Yogi Berra, ‘tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat’. For people listening to the podcast without video, there is a point at which my phone drops from its perch. I considered taking some time to edit the moment out, but really if I slow down to edit, then I’ll never get the post up! *’No plan ever survives with any certainty past the first time the enemy main force punches you in the mouth.’ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe
