Quotient

Quotient
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Technology

The best forecasters see it before everyone else. Prediction markets are one of the best tools we have for understanding what's likely to happen next, but they're full of mispriced positions that most participants never catch. Quotient finds them. Q is our AI superforecasting engine. It continuously scans prediction markets across geopolitics and world events, surfacing where consensus is wrong and where the real edge sits. Each week, Quotient co-founders Shira Stember and Jordan Olmstead break down that intelligence: What Q is watching right nowWhich calls just landed, with timestamps and ROIWhich markets most people are sleeping on You'll hear what the market says, what Q says, and where we think things are heading. Most news coverage tells you what already happened. Quotient tells you what's about to. Whether you trade prediction markets, build in the space, or just want to understand where the world is moving before everyone else catches up, this is your briefing. New episodes weekly. Subscribe to This Week's Signal, Quotient's newsletter, for the written companion with updated forecasts and live market positions. quotient.social | View live markets | X | YouTube | Farcaster | TikTok

Episodes

  1. May 7

    Iran's Regime May Shift Without Collapsing | Quotient Ep. 06

    In this episode of Mispriced by Quotient, Shira and Jordan discuss if the Iranian regime will fall before 2027 and break down why a military takeover, leadership succession, or IRGC power shift may not count as a resolution unless the Islamic Republic's core governing structure collapses or loses de facto control over most of Iran's population. At the time of publication, the market is near 14%. Q is at 6%. Chapters: 0:00 The search for the one trick 0:20 The market and Q's price 1:02 What has to happen for Yes 2:35 Why a military takeover may not count 4:04 Why Q is lower than the market 6:36 Incentives to preserve the system 7:16 What the Iranian public may want 8:28 Why collapse narratives keep failing 10:17 What would change Q's mind 12:08 Why collapse may not mean improvement 12:52 The final No case Trade the narrative at app.quotient.social. Follow Quotient on X: @QuotientHQ Nothing here is financial advice. Always do your own research.

  2. May 1

    Why the Strait of Hormuz Market Looks Mispriced | Quotient Ep. 05

    In Quotient Ep. 05, Shira Stember and Jordan Olmstead break down two prediction markets tied to the same US-Iran standoff: whether an in-person US-Iran diplomatic meeting happens before May 5, and whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens to normal shipping volume by the end of May. The episode focuses on why Q is below the market on both questions. For the US-Iran meeting market, the key issue is resolution criteria: phone calls, brief greetings, and secret proximity talks do not count. The meeting must be in person and publicly acknowledged or credibly reported before the deadline. Jordan explains why the failed Islamabad talks, Iranian objections to negotiating under threat, and incompatible nuclear red lines make a qualifying meeting difficult. For the Strait of Hormuz market, the issue is not just whether officials announce progress. The market resolves through IMF PortWatch transit data, meaning ships need to physically move through the Strait at sufficient volume. The discussion covers mines, AIS tracking, Navy escort constraints, shipping risk, insurance, and why a narrow cleared pathway is not the same as normal traffic. In this episode: - Why US-Iran in-person talks may not meet the market criteria - The difference between public diplomacy and indirect proximity talks - Iran’s nuclear red lines and the US negotiating position - Why the Strait of Hormuz shipping market depends on physical logistics - IMF PortWatch, AIS tracking, mines, and Navy escort constraints - Why the crowd may be reacting more to headlines than resolution criteria Chapters: 00:00 Intro 00:32 Two markets: US-Iran talks and Hormuz reopening 02:36 Why in-person talks fell through 04:10 Negotiating under threat 06:24 Public acknowledgment vs. the real issue 06:34 Nuclear red lines and the diplomatic impasse 07:54 Strait of Hormuz market and resolution criteria 09:24 AIS tracking and undercount risk 09:52 Mine risk and shipping uncertainty 10:19 Why US optimism may be market management 12:12 Can partial mine clearance reach 60 ships? 12:43 The timeline problem for normal shipping 13:27 Why the market may be overpricing headlines 14:12 Disclaimer and close Trade → https://app.quotient.social Newsletter → https://quotient.substack.com Follow Quotient: @QuotientHQ Nothing in this video is financial advice. Always do your own research. #PredictionMarkets #Forecasting #StraitOfHormuz #Iran #Geopolitics

  3. Apr 21

    The Cool Kids Call It UAP | Quotient Ep. 4

    Polymarket says there's a 22% chance the US confirms aliens exist before 2027. Q says 9%. In Episode 4 of Quotient Stream, Shira and Jordan break down the gap on the alien market and why declassification is not the same as confirmation. Plus Would You Trade It markets on Zohran Mamdani's rap comeback odds and this week's Billboard Hot 100 #1. Chapters 00:00 Introduction 01:07 Would You Trade It: Will Mamdani release another song? 03:44 Would You Trade It: Billboard Hot 100 #1 05:06 Will the US confirm aliens before 2027? 06:30 UFOs and government disclosure 08:52 Understanding UAPs 10:25 Inside the Pentagon's anomaly office 12:27 Public perception and interest in UFOs 14:12 The impact of technology on market predictions 16:37 Declassification vs. confirmation 18:03 How could this resolve to yes? 18:39 Is this a US phenomenon or global? 19:26 Why the admin keeps teasing alien documents 22:01 Declassification does not equal market resolution 23:30 Strategy vs. withholding info 25:06 Wrap up Trade the narratives: https://app.quotient.social Subscribe to This Week's Signal: https://quotient.substack.com Follow on X: https://x.com/QuotientHQ Quotient is an AI-powered prediction markets intelligence platform. Q is our superforecasting engine that identifies mispriced markets across geopolitics, policy, and world events. Nothing in this video is financial advice. Always do your own research.

  4. Apr 19

    A Cruise Ship Just Sailed Through a War Zone

    A cruise ship sailed through the Strait of Hormuz this week. In this episode, Shira and Jordan break down two markets where the crowd is getting it wrong, and why Q sees them very differently. On Hormuz, the mines and insurer posture make a 13-day reopening nearly impossible. On Cuba, seizing territory doesn't fit the US playbook. The real moves look more like the Maduro operation. The reasoning behind each. What to watch before the markets resolve. Don't copy trade. Trade the narrative. ⏱️ CHAPTERS 00:00 Cold open 00:13 Intro 06:18 Cuba: Why we're fading the 25% 08:16 Would seizing territory actually make sense? 09:09 Would the Cuban president negotiate? 10:49 Strait of Hormuz: Can it reopen by April 30? 12:39 Why the market jumped 20 points today 14:04 The mines problem 16:30 What insurers are waiting for 18:51 The cruise ship mystery, solved 22:55 Final takeaway 24:26 🔗 FOLLOW QUOTIENT App: https://app.quotient.social X: https://x.com/QuotientHQ Substack: https://quotient.substack.com Q provides forecasts, not trading advice. These are estimates based on Quotient's models and historical performance. Always do your own research. #predictionmarkets #polymarket #geopolitics #cuba #hormuz #forecasting

  5. Apr 16

    Where the Crowd Is Wrong on Iran and Greenland | Quotient Ep. 02

    Where is the crowd wrong on Iran and Greenland? In this episode of Quotient, we use Q, our AI forecasting system, to break down two markets where the gap between crowd odds and structural reality is significant. The Iran uranium surrender market is sitting at 49% on Polymarket. Q says 7%. We walk through the resolution criteria, what each side actually proposed during negotiations in Islamabad, why Iran's decades-old red line on enriched uranium makes a surrender within 75 days extremely unlikely, and what happens if neither side yields. Then we cover Greenland, where the market is pricing a 17% chance of US acquisition this year. Q says 3%. We get into the strategic importance of the island for US nuclear defense, why Europe pre-staged troops to defend it, and how the US is likely to get what it needs through base expansion without ever triggering the market's resolution criteria. Plus, we kick things off with "Would You Trade It?" covering Bryan Johnson's public sex announcements and which movie will be the highest grossing film of 2026. Chapters: 0:00 Intro 0:24 Would You Trade It: Bryan Johnson 2:26 Would You Trade It: Highest Grossing Movie 2026 5:58 Iran Uranium Market Overview 7:34 Resolution Scenarios 8:15 What Was On the Table in Islamabad 10:04 The Rubble Problem 10:45 Why Iran Won't Back Down 12:52 The 75-Day Timeline 14:09 Who's Making Decisions in Tehran 15:35 Greenland Market Overview 16:34 Strategic Importance and the Thule Treaty 19:27 Trump's Greenland Rhetoric 21:54 What the US Wants vs. What the Market Requires 23:55 Framework: Wants vs. Needs 24:53 Explore Quotient → https://app.quotient.social Follow on X → https://x.com/quotientHQ Subscribe for weekly breakdowns of prediction markets, world events, and where the crowd is wrong. Not financial advice. Do your own research.

  6. Apr 14

    Why Prediction Markets Are Wrong About the US-Iran Ceasefire | Quotient Ep. 01

    Why are prediction markets getting the US-Iran ceasefire wrong? In this first episode of Quotient, we use Q, our AI forecasting system, to break down what’s actually happening across the US, Iran, Israel, and Lebanon, and where the market is mispricing reality. While headlines point to ceasefires and resolution, Q is seeing something different. The gap between market odds and what’s structurally likely to happen is where the opportunity lives. We start by walking through Q’s track record, including recent wins where markets overestimated how quickly events would unfold. Then we dig into the biggest geopolitical story right now: US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, Pakistan’s role as mediator, and why the timelines being priced in are likely unrealistic. We also cover why the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively constrained despite a “ceasefire,” how the Israel-Lebanon conflict and Hezbollah dynamics complicate any real resolution, and what this all means for traders trying to identify mispriced markets. Plus, we close with a live market segment reacting to everything from Coachella predictions to Trump headlines. If you want to understand prediction markets, geopolitics, and how to find signal before the crowd catches up, you’re in the right place. _____________________ Chapters: 0:00 Intro 0:42 What Quotient does 1:30 Q’s track record and recent wins 5:02 Why markets misprice timing 6:34 US–Iran ceasefire: what’s actually happening 12:41 Strait of Hormuz and oil flow reality 14:48 Israel–Lebanon and Hezbollah dynamics 17:17 Putting the full picture together 19:05 Live market picks and reactions 24:05 Wrap-up and where to follow Explore Quotient → https://app.quotient.social Follow on X → https://x.com/quotientHQ Subscribe for weekly breakdowns of prediction markets, world events, and where the crowd is wrong. Not financial advice. Do your own research.

  • 6 Episodes

About

The best forecasters see it before everyone else. Prediction markets are one of the best tools we have for understanding what's likely to happen next, but they're full of mispriced positions that most participants never catch. Quotient finds them. Q is our AI superforecasting engine. It continuously scans prediction markets across geopolitics and world events, surfacing where consensus is wrong and where the real edge sits. Each week, Quotient co-founders Shira Stember and Jordan Olmstead break down that intelligence: What Q is watching right nowWhich calls just landed, with timestamps and ROIWhich markets most people are sleeping on You'll hear what the market says, what Q says, and where we think things are heading. Most news coverage tells you what already happened. Quotient tells you what's about to. Whether you trade prediction markets, build in the space, or just want to understand where the world is moving before everyone else catches up, this is your briefing. New episodes weekly. Subscribe to This Week's Signal, Quotient's newsletter, for the written companion with updated forecasts and live market positions. quotient.social | View live markets | X | YouTube | Farcaster | TikTok

Information

  • Creator
    Quotient
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    6
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Quotient
  • Show Website
    Quotient