The Rural Banker

Dr. Ernie Goss and Andrew Hoover

A data-driven look at the U.S. rural economy. Each month, Dr. Ernie Goss and Andrew Hoover translate the Rural Mainstreet Index into actionable insights on agriculture, lending, and the financial realities facing rural banks. erniegoss.substack.com

Episodes

  1. Jul 20

    Rural Mainstreet Index Plummets to 42.1 in July

    The July 2026 Rural Mainstreet Index fell 10.5 points to 42.1, dropping below growth-neutral for the fifth time in six months. In this episode of The Rural Banker, Dr. Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University and co-creator of the Rural Mainstreet Index, explains how weak commodity prices and elevated input costs are squeezing farm margins. He also discusses what is weighing on banker confidence, why most banks have not tightened their credit standards, why farmland values are holding up better than farm income, how rural banks are using AI, and why he is watching the 10-year Treasury yield before next month’s survey. July 2026 Rural Mainstreet Index highlights: * Overall index: 42.1, down from 52.6 in June and below growth-neutral for the fifth time in six months * Banker confidence: 34.2, down from 42.1 * Farm and ranchland values: 52.8, the third consecutive month above growth-neutral * Farm equipment sales: 27.8, the 35th consecutive month below growth-neutral * Credit standards: 53.7% reported no change, while 46.3% tightened somewhat * Greatest agricultural challenge: 52.0% cited weak commodity prices * AI in banking: 57.9% identified fraud detection as the function offering the greatest potential benefit Chapters: * 0:00 Cold open * 0:09 Welcome and July RMI * 1:41 Banker confidence and input costs * 2:33 Credit standards * 2:57 Farmland values * 4:04 AI in rural banking * 4:58 What to watch next “That’s sort of like your chemistry exam in high school. I don’t need to tell you: 42 is not good, regardless of the scale.” — Dr. Ernie Goss Subscribe for updates from The Rural Banker Hosted by Andrew Hoover Produced at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business / MCEI This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit erniegoss.substack.com

  2. Jun 26

    Rural Mainstreet Index Hits Three-Year High as Tariffs Top Banker Concerns

    The June 2026 Rural Mainstreet Index rose to 52.6, its highest reading since July 2023 — the first time the index has crossed above growth neutral in four months. Dr. Ernie Goss, MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University and co-creator of the Rural Mainstreet Index, breaks down what's driving the improvement and why rural bankers say the pressure isn't over. Topics include why 41.9% of bankers named lowering global tariffs as their top federal priority, why cash rents have barely moved since 2022, why farm equipment sales remain in their longest slump in recent memory, and what the Iran ceasefire and Federal Reserve mean for farm input costs going forward. Hosted by Andrew Hoover.Produced at Creighton University's Heider College of Business / MCEI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit erniegoss.substack.com

    Rural Mainstreet Index Hits Three-Year High as Tariffs Top Banker Concerns

  3. May 28

    "I Have the Best Job in the World": Gary Brandt on What Co-ops See Before Banks Do

    "I have the best job in the world. We help the farmers in Nebraska feed the world. It's noble work." That is Gary Brandt, CEO of Cooperative Producers Inc., a farmer-owned cooperative serving central Nebraska since 1906. Co-ops sit upstream of the financial system. They spot shifts in prepay behavior, input orders, and accounts receivable weeks before that data ever hits a commercial loan officer's desk. In this episode, Gary joins Dr. Ernie Goss and Andrew Hoover to lay out the numbers driving rural anxiety today. They break down the friction points for the 2026 crop season: thousand-dollar nitrogen, sub-five-dollar corn, surging land rents, and why farmers are intentionally slowing down their loan draws while they wait for July rain. May 2026 Rural Mainstreet Index highlights: Overall index: 45.7, fourth straight month below growth neutral Equipment sales: 18.2, 33rd consecutive month of decline Loan volume: 67.4, rising Confidence: 34.8, falling Nebraska RMI: 51.4, the only state in the ten-state region still above growth neutral Hosted by Andrew Hoover Produced at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business / MCEI This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit erniegoss.substack.com

  4. May 1

    "How Do You Operate at a Loss?" — Navigating Year Four of the Ag Squeeze

    Row crop prices have been below production costs for four consecutive years. In this episode, Dr. Ernie Goss breaks down the April Rural Mainstreet Index, and Jeff Bonnett, President and CEO of Havana National Bank in Havana, Illinois, shares what that looks like on the ground. They cover Main Street spillover, loan renewal conversations, land values, and what policymakers may be getting wrong about rural America. Hosted by Andrew Hoover. A production of the Center for Economic Inquiry at Creighton University. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit erniegoss.substack.com

  5. Apr 16

    Bankers Say Recession Is Here | April 2026 RMI

    The April Rural Mainstreet Index points to continued contraction across the rural economy, with more than half of bankers reporting local recession conditions. Dr. Ernie Goss breaks down what’s driving these shifts and what to watch going forward. Key takeaways from this month’s survey: * Recession Reality: 54.2% of bankers report current recession conditions. * Rural Assets: Farmland and ranchland values fell below growth neutral. * Ag Equipment: Equipment sales sank below growth neutral for the 32nd straight month. * Planting Shifts: Farmers are shifting acres from corn to soybeans in response to rising fertilizer costs. * Policy Impact: 62.5% of bankers say the $12B Farm Bridge program is having little to no impact. * Interest Rates: Most bankers recommend no change in interest rates amid ongoing inflation concerns. Hosted by Andrew Hoover | Produced at Creighton University’s Menard Institute for Economic Inquiry Subscribe to the Rural Banker This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit erniegoss.substack.com

    Bankers Say Recession Is Here | April 2026 RMI

  6. Mar 27

    Farmers Are Borrowing to Survive, Not to Grow: March 2026 RMI

    In this month’s episode of The Rural Banker, Dr. Ernie Goss breaks down the March 2026 Rural Mainstreet Index, and the tension between surging loan volume and collapsing confidence tells the story. The overall RMI fell to 40.9, its lowest level since October 2025, while banker confidence dropped from 45.8 to 29.5 in a single month. At the same time, loan volume jumped to 78.6. Dr. Goss explains why that borrowing surge is not optimism. It is farmers covering operating costs heading into planting season. We also get into how the Iran conflict is already affecting Midwest farm margins, why farmland values are holding despite weak income, and what bank CEOs are seeing that is not yet showing up in the broader data. Hosted by Andrew HooverProduced at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business / MCEI Subscribe to The Rural Banker This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit erniegoss.substack.com

  7. Mar 12

    Energy Markets, Spring Planting Costs, and the Outlook for Rural Banks

    In this episode of The Rural Banker, Dr. Ernie Goss reviews the latest Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) and the economic pressures facing agricultural producers and rural lenders. Energy markets remain a key factor this month. Recent volatility in oil prices has raised concerns about input costs heading into the spring planting season, particularly for diesel and other fuel-intensive farm operations. Dr. Goss notes that while prices have moved sharply in recent weeks, he expects energy markets to eventually settle back toward more normal levels. The conversation also explores how global uncertainty is affecting rural economies, including the potential impact on commodity markets, export demand, and financing conditions for agricultural producers. Dr. Goss also discusses the outlook for community banks, noting that liquidity remains available but that broader financial conditions bear watching. One indicator he highlights in particular is the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield, which he suggests rural lenders monitor closely as a signal for potential changes in economic momentum. Hosted by Andrew HooverProduced at Creighton University's Menard Institute for Economic Inquiry This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit erniegoss.substack.com

  8. Feb 19

    February 2026 Rural Mainstreet Index

    February 2026 release of the Rural Mainstreet Index, a monthly survey of community bank CEOs across a ten-state region dependent on agriculture and energy. Learn more about the index methodology and past releases at Creighton University. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit erniegoss.substack.com

    February 2026 Rural Mainstreet Index
  • 8 Episodes

About

A data-driven look at the U.S. rural economy. Each month, Dr. Ernie Goss and Andrew Hoover translate the Rural Mainstreet Index into actionable insights on agriculture, lending, and the financial realities facing rural banks. erniegoss.substack.com

Information

  • Creator
    Dr. Ernie Goss and Andrew Hoover
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    8
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © Ernie Goss
  • Show Website
    The Rural Banker