The American Conservative Morning Briefing

The American Conservative
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A short morning synopsis of TAC's coverage

  1. 1h ago

    October 23, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Friday, October 23rd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. On day two hundred and thirty-seven of the Iran conflict, reports indicate American and Israeli planners are preparing fresh strikes after the November midterms, as Brent crude hits one hundred and ten dollars and gas climbs to four twenty-seven a gallon. Jude Russo asks what another round of bombing is actually supposed to achieve, warning that shifting political goals and the sheer scale of Iran make a decade-long luxury war untenable and diplomacy the more prudent path. and now for the details. We begin with the ongoing conflict in Iran, now in its two hundred and thirty-seventh day. The New York Times reported Wednesday that American and Israeli war planners are preparing to resume active strikes on Iran following the November 3rd midterm elections. According to the Times, citing anonymous officials, President Trump has ordered and canceled fresh strikes multiple times. The new plans reportedly focus on Iran's nuclear program and energy infrastructure, while avoiding refineries and oil facilities. Some believe action may come sooner. An Iranian official told Drop Site News that Tehran anticipates renewed fighting perhaps even before the October 27th Israeli parliamentary elections, though the White House has denied the reports. Meanwhile, Axios reports the Israeli Air Force has been conducting aggressive maneuvers near Iranian airspace. State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott said Wednesday the U.S. is evacuating nonessential personnel from American diplomatic posts in Saudi Arabia, citing the threat of Houthi strikes. Iran, for its part, has continued operations in the Persian Gulf, claiming strikes on four tankers in a Thursday statement. The economic signals are already visible: Brent crude opened at one hundred and ten dollars, and AAA reports a national average of four dollars and twenty-seven cents per gallon for regular gas, and six dollars and thirty-one cents for diesel. Jude Russo filed the report for The American Conservative. In a companion analysis, Jude Russo asks the question hanging over all of this: what, exactly, is another round of bombing in Iran actually supposed to accomplish? Russo notes that the USS Theodore Roosevelt is en route to the Persian Gulf, expected to arrive late next month. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth paid a quick visit to Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Monday. The State Department is sending personnel home, and troop numbers at regional bases are being reduced. As Russo reports, the war's stated political goals have shifted repeatedly, from ending Iran's nuclear program, to reopening the Strait of Hormuz which was open before the war, to regime change in Tehran. The current theory downtown, he writes, is that another round of strikes combined with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's economic maneuvers will push Iran to the table or trigger a change of government. Russo is skeptical. He points out that Iran is not Syria. It is simply too large for what he calls a decade-long luxury war. An indigenous uprising would likely provoke a civil war, which would not make the Hormuz safe nor secure Iranian nuclear assets. His central argument is one of political prudence: matching means to ends. Main force is expensive and painful, and historically you need far more of it than planners anticipate. Diplomacy's ceiling may be lower, but it is less costly. Russo warns that another round of bombing is unlikely to move the country closer to a stable settlement in the Middle East, nor to help Republicans at the ballot box in the midterms or in 2028. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  2. 1d ago

    October 22, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 22nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Doug Bandow argues that Washington's attempts to micromanage European defense spending have produced only frustration on both sides, and that a genuine America First policy would treat European governments as allies rather than dependents. Daniel R. DePetris surveys the mounting costs of Operation Epic Fury, from a depleted munitions stockpile to vulnerable Gulf bases, and contends that a post-American Middle East is both overdue and already quietly taking shape. and now for the details. We begin this morning in the transatlantic alliance, where tensions between Washington and its European partners are rising sharply over defense spending. President Trump continues to press European governments to dramatically increase their military outlays, and NATO leaders, including Secretary General Mark Rutte and Supreme Allied Commander General Alexus Grynkewich, have talked tough about deterring Russian aggression. But the reality on the ground is far less confident. In the United Kingdom, new Prime Minister Andy Burnham is staring down a forty-seven billion dollar budget gap, and this week London announced cuts of some two-point-seven billion dollars to front-line army equipment. France is bracing for a bond sell-off after a weekend of violent protests, and populist movements critical of military spending are gaining strength from Italy to Poland to Germany. As Doug Bandow reports for The American Conservative, European officials are increasingly open about their frustration. Italian parliamentarian Lia Quartapelle was quoted telling Politico Europe that Trump quote "cannot be trusted and we are on our own." Bandow argues that the current arrangement serves no one well. Europeans remain dependent on an increasingly irascible and unreliable patron, while the United States continues to underwrite the defense of a prosperous continent fully capable of defending itself. Meanwhile, Trump's efforts to extract commercial concessions as the price of continued American protection, Bandow writes, hurt American consumers more than they help them. His recommendation: Washington should stop micromanaging European militaries, state plainly what it intends to do, and allow European governments to make their own security choices as allies, not dependents. That, Bandow concludes, would be a genuinely America First agenda. Turning to the Persian Gulf, where Operation Epic Fury has now entered its eighth month. By the Pentagon's own admission, the war with Iran has cost American taxpayers more than forty billion dollars, and the U.S. military has expended over sixty percent of its stockpile of air defense interceptors as well as many of its most advanced precision munitions. Allied orders from Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are being delayed, and air defense assets normally positioned in Asia have been shifted to the Gulf. Iranian strikes have damaged buildings on American bases in at least eight Middle Eastern countries, and the headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet in Bahrain is now considered so vulnerable that resupply operations have moved to Diego Garcia, more than two thousand miles away. Daniel R. DePetris writes that the war has exposed the fundamental weakness of a regional posture built up since the 1991 Gulf War. The constellation of bases from Kuwait to Qatar to the UAE, once considered sound investments, have become liabilities. Arab governments are quietly hedging. In August, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which includes a mutual-defense clause modeled on NATO's Article Five. Kuwait has signed its own defense accord with Pakistan, and the UAE has reportedly allowed the deployment of Israeli air defense systems on its territory. DePetris argues this reassessment is overdue, and that Washington should actively encourage a post-American Middle East by drawing down forces from vulnerable Gulf bases. The record of American intervention in the region, he writes, is one of hubris, failure, and unanticipated costs, and the sooner the United States abandons its role as regional policeman, the sooner lasting stability will become possible. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  3. 3d ago

    October 20, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Tuesday, October 20th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Luke Nicastro surveys the riots convulsing France and finds the same combustible mix of cost-of-living pain, fiscal reckoning, and mass migration taking hold across Europe, with continued decline the likeliest trajectory. As the war with Iran enters its two hundred and thirty-fourth day, Sergey Lavrov lands in Tehran offering Russian mediation, even as Moscow quietly aids Iranian targeting of U.S. forces and President Trump touts a new Russian diesel deal. Iranian strikes on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have made October the worst month of the war for vessel attacks, driving Brent crude to one hundred and ten dollars and American gasoline to four dollars and thirty cents a gallon. and now for the details. We begin this morning in France, where weeks of unrest have escalated into some of the worst street violence the country has seen in years. What began as student demonstrations over school conditions and university admissions has swelled into a broader revolt, joined by trade unionists and radicals, taking aim at fuel prices, the cost of living, government budget cuts, and ultimately the very notion of authority. This past weekend alone, nearly a thousand police officers and gendarmes were injured, more than twenty-four hundred arrests were made, and the town hall of Limoges, a building that survived two world wars, was gutted by arson. Similar demonstrations have now broken out in Madrid, Milan, Lisbon, and Brussels. Writing for The American Conservative, Luke Nicastro argues that the conditions driving the unrest are common across the continent. He points to three converging failures: a cost of living crisis sharpened by energy prices France cannot control; a looming fiscal reckoning that has forced even President Macron's government to propose spending cuts; and the deep social fractures produced by mass migration, with nearly twelve percent of the French population now foreign-born. Overlaying all of it, Nicastro writes, is the bankruptcy of a political establishment led by a president with a fifteen percent approval rating. Nicastro sees some possibility of renewal through rising populist parties like the National Rally and the AfD, but he is sober about the material dilemma Europe faces: faltering economic competitiveness, a worsening affordability crisis, and the real prospect that the technologies shaping the future, especially artificial intelligence, will pass the continent by. His conclusion: continued decline is more probable than not, though the collapse, if it comes, will play out over years and decades rather than all at once. Turning to the war with Iran, now in its two hundred and thirty-fourth day. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks aimed at preventing further escalation in the Middle East. Moscow has indicated it would be willing to mediate between Washington and Tehran. President Trump said Sunday he had struck a deal to import Russian diesel, citing in part what he described as the limited nature of Moscow's support for Iran during the war. Writing on Truth Social, the president said Russia is doing very little, if anything, to help the Islamic Republic, and that he wants to keep it that way. News reports and expert analyses, however, indicate Russia has provided Iran with satellite intelligence used for targeting American forces and assets. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a sharp response to the president's threats, writing on X that the last time Mr. Trump wanted to, quote, finish the job, Iran emerged even stronger. Araghchi said an Iranian proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains on the table. Andrew Day reports for The American Conservative that Iran has escalated strikes on vessels around the Strait, making October the worst month for such attacks since the war began. The consequences are showing up at American gas pumps. Brent crude hit a five-month high of one hundred and ten dollars a barrel on Friday. The average price of regular gasoline in the United States now stands at four dollars and thirty cents a gallon, up from two dollars and ninety-eight cents before the war. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  4. 4d ago

    October 19, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Monday, October 19th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo examines how Erdoğan, once jailed by Turkey's Kemalist "deep state," has become the establishment he spent his career fighting, even as inflation, repression, and succession questions cloud his foreign policy winning streak. With 92 ambassadorial posts vacant, Peter Van Buren argues that if embassies can run for months under career chargés, the real question is whether political ambassadorships were ever as indispensable as their defenders claim. and now for the details. We turn first to Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is enjoying a run of foreign policy wins even as pressures mount at home. The Kurdistan Workers' Party has notionally dissolved after its imprisoned leader called for arms to be laid down. In Washington last month, Erdoğan secured a memorandum on civilian nuclear cooperation and defense goods including jet engines. At July's NATO summit, President Trump signaled openness to lifting sanctions so Turkey could acquire F-35s. And in August, Ankara signed the Mecca Defense Alliance with Riyadh and Islamabad. Yet inflation still runs near 30 percent, growth is slowing, and Erdoğan's domestic tactics are growing more repressive. In May, the Erdoğan-appointed judiciary voided the leadership elections of the main opposition CHP, prompting riot police to physically remove its leader, Özgür Özel, from party headquarters. Özel broke away in July to form the Yeni Parti, accusing the "deep state" of persecuting Erdoğan's opponents. As Jude Russo writes in The American Conservative, this is a deeply ironic turn. "Deep state" is originally a Turkish term, describing the Kemalist elite complex that for decades knocked back popular, religiously-rooted politicians—including, once, Erdoğan himself, who was jailed in 1999 for reciting a nationalist poem. Russo argues Erdoğan was the earliest of the 21st century's right-wing populists, and his career now illustrates the classic populist dilemma: to advance his agenda, he had to become the establishment, inheriting its dysfunctions, or concentrate power in his own person, leaving the project vulnerable when he departs. At 72, with succession looming and figures like Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar in the mix, Russo observes it is difficult to imagine anyone filling Erdoğan's enormous role in the modern Turkish state. Next, a question about American diplomacy itself. The Trump administration currently has 92 ambassadorial seats sitting empty, with nominees either stuck in Senate confirmation or no nominee named at all. By comparison, at the same point in their presidencies, Biden had 54 vacancies and the first Trump administration had 55. Vacant posts include some significant ones—Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Germany among them. Senate Foreign Relations Democrat Jeanne Shaheen has accused the administration of retreating from the world stage, noting that China keeps ambassadors in nearly every capital. Writing in The American Conservative, Peter Van Buren—a State Department veteran of more than two decades—asks whether this is really the problem critics claim. Van Buren notes that since 1960, 72 percent of American ambassadors to desirable posts in Western Europe and the Caribbean have been political appointees, their primary qualification often being generous donations to the winning campaign. When an ambassador is absent, the embassy is led by a chargé—typically the deputy chief of mission, usually a seasoned Foreign Service Officer with deep country experience. Van Buren argues that embassies as currently constituted were designed for a 19th-century world without video calls, encrypted messaging, cabinet-level travel, and direct leader-to-leader communication. Critics, he writes, rarely identify specific policy outcomes that required a Senate-confirmed ambassador rather than a competent chargé. If 92 embassies can function for months without ambassadors, Van Buren suggests, the honest question is how indispensable those positions were in the first place. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  5. 5d ago

    October 18, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Sunday, October 18th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Phillip Linderman digs into the Scoular bribery case and other federal prosecutions to argue that booming U.S.–Mexico trade is quietly fattening the cartels and that Washington needs a real Mexico trade plan before the 2027 USMCA review. On day 232 of the war with Iran, Tehran declares the Strait of Hormuz "closed" after a wave of tanker attacks, sending gas to $4.31 a gallon as Foreign Minister Araghchi hands Washington a seven-day ultimatum through Qatar. Katie Zacharia is out as White House press secretary after just days on the job, closing the shortest tenure in the position's history following a panned debut briefing and questions about her legal credentials. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a hard look at the hidden costs of cross-border commerce. The U.S. attorney for the Western District of Texas put it bluntly this past July: nothing crosses into or out of Mexico without the approval and payment of Mexican drug cartels. That statement came as the Justice Department prosecuted the Scoular Company, a Nebraska-based agricultural trading firm, under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. Scoular authorized more than four hundred thousand dollars in bribes to Mexican officials between 2015 and 2019, avoiding roughly six and a half million in inspection fees. Some of those proceeds, prosecutors say, ultimately benefited cartel associates. The company agreed to pay more than ten million dollars in penalties. A separate 2025 indictment against Los Angeles freight forwarder Sport LA alleges direct kickbacks to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel to facilitate billions in shipments. As Phillip Linderman writes for The American Conservative, these cases are not isolated incidents but windows into a vast complex of corruption that has a stranglehold on the Mexican state. Linderman argues that the NAFTA-era assumption that trade would modernize Mexican institutions and defeat the cartels has simply not panned out. Instead, the cartels have embedded themselves in legitimate commerce, taking their cut of extortion, protection payments, fuel theft, and shipping. Major U.S. investors like General Motors, Walmart, and Constellation Brands quietly absorb the security costs. With the U.S. Trade Representative now seeking public comment ahead of the 2027 review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, Linderman says Washington needs a real Mexico trade plan—one that reckons with the fact that growing commerce is also growing the cartels. Turning overseas, the war with Iran has reached day 232, and Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply escalated. Four tankers came under attack in the last day alone, and roughly two dozen vessels have been hit over the past two weeks, making October the worst period for shipping since the opening weeks of the war. Two ships were struck by projectiles on Friday, and two supertankers reportedly struck mines on Saturday. The IRGC Navy, according to Iranian state media, declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed." Also on Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran had transmitted a seven-day plan to Washington, by way of Qatar, to reopen the Strait. The choice, he said, now rests with the United States. Luke Nicastro, writing for The American Conservative, notes the pressure such a shutdown places on American consumers: AAA now reports the average price of regular gasoline in the United States at $4.31 a gallon, with diesel at $6.33. At the White House, Katie Zacharia confirmed Saturday on X that she is no longer serving as press secretary, calling it an honor to have worked for President Trump. Zacharia, who was relatively unknown before her selection, began the job on Monday and gave her debut press briefing on Tuesday. That performance was widely panned, including by other White House officials, and she faced additional criticism over allegations that she had represented herself as an attorney despite not having passed the bar exam. As Luke Nicastro reports for The American Conservative, the Trump administration moved on Friday to remove Zacharia from her post, making hers the shortest tenure of any White House press secretary in American history. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  6. 6d ago

    October 17, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Saturday, October 17th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. W. James Antle III argues Trump has become a president of inflation and war, with the Iran conflict driving an energy price spike that threatens a midterm bloodbath for Republicans. As the Iran war reaches day 231, Trump floats striking Pickaxe Mountain and refuses to rule out the mother of all bombs, while Brent crude hovers near 106 dollars and gas climbs to 4.33 a gallon. A new book by Eli Clifton and Ian Lustick examines how the Israel lobby has grown richer and more aggressive since Mearsheimer and Walt, even as Israel's standing with American voters has collapsed. and now for the details. We begin with the political and economic storm clouds gathering over the White House just weeks before the midterm elections. The latest consumer price index shows inflation back up to 3.7 percent. President Trump's approval on the economy sits at just under 34 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, and on inflation specifically, nearly 70 percent of Americans disapprove. A recent Fox News poll put that disapproval number at 77 percent. As W. James Antle III writes for The American Conservative, these conditions are the result of the president's own choices. Antle argues the biggest driver of the recent price spike is energy costs tied to the war with Iran, a conflict Trump was warned by his own team would prompt Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off oil supplies. Antle draws a direct parallel to Joe Biden, who was similarly warned that pushing another round of COVID-era stimulus would fuel inflation and cost his party its majorities. Both men, Antle writes, ignored the warnings. Trump had routed the neoconservatives in his primary runs, yet he has now delivered them the war with Iran that George W. Bush never did. Antle notes that tariffs have added to voter unease about prices, but tariffs at least were part of the campaign. A war with Iran, he says, was not. Trump argues the inflation is a small price to pay for stopping an Iranian bomb. Antle counters that most voters don't see it that way, and that Trump himself was ready to end the fighting back in June. The president, Antle concludes, is now furiously campaigning in the reddest parts of the country, trying to prevent an electoral bloodbath of his own making. Staying with the Iran conflict, now in its 231st day. In an interview with Newsmax on Thursday, President Trump signaled a possible expansion of the air campaign, telling the network that the United States may need to hit Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground site believed central to Iran's nuclear program. In his words, quote, we're looking at Pickaxe Mountain. We may have to go there. We'll take a shot at that one. We'll knock it out fast, end quote. The president also declined to rule out using the GBU-43, the so-called mother of all bombs, against Iranian targets. Luke Nicastro reports for The American Conservative that the regional war continues to widen. Saudi forces announced the interception of multiple missiles and drones on Friday, following a deadly Houthi strike on the presidential palace in Aden earlier in the week. Fighting is also reported around Taiz, Yemen's third-largest city. Meanwhile, Iran's army chief, General Mohammad Akraminia, suggested on X that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen if U.S. forces leave the region, adding that if they don't leave, Iran will expel them. Nicastro notes the market impact for American families. Brent crude is trading near 106 dollars a barrel. AAA puts the national average for regular gasoline at 4 dollars and 33 cents, and diesel at 6 dollars and 33 cents a gallon. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  7. Oct 16

    October 16, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Friday, October 16th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. In South Carolina, Senator Darline Graham is clinging to a one-point lead over Democrat Annie Andrews, as voter anger over the Iran war and six-dollar diesel threatens to flip a seat her brother Lindsey won by ten points in 2020. Jack Hunter reports that unease over the seat passing by "bloodright," combined with lingering support for America First primary challenger Ralph Norman, has some conservatives floating a write-in campaign against the appointed senator. Jude Russo argues that Ukraine's reported exhaustion of Patriot interceptors exposes the hard arithmetic of a depleted American arsenal, and warns that trying to sustain two major wars across two theaters is madness. and now for the details. We begin in South Carolina, where a Senate race that should be a Republican walkover has turned into a dead heat. Senator Darline Graham, appointed in July to fill out the term of her late brother Lindsey Graham, is clinging to a one-point lead over Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews, according to late September polls from Trafalgar and Insider Advantage. A Rasmussen survey released Friday put Graham at forty-nine, Andrews at forty-five. For context, Lindsey Graham won reelection in 2020 by ten points. Andrews has centered her campaign on rising gasoline and diesel prices, tying them directly to the ongoing war with Iran — and reminding voters that Senator Graham voted three times to continue that war. In Sunday night's debate, Graham defended the war, invoked peace through strength, and pledged to stand with Israel, even blaming Democrats for Iran's nuclear program. As Jack Hunter reports for The American Conservative, Hunter — himself a South Carolinian — still expects Graham to win, but says the closeness of the race would be unthinkable absent the political context created by Trump's war. Many conservatives who had backed Lindsey's America First primary challenger, Representative Ralph Norman, are uneasy about a Senate seat passing by what Hunter calls bloodright, and some are even organizing a write-in campaign. Hunter notes House Speaker Mike Johnson's recent attempt to blame fuel prices on the Strait of Hormuz rather than on Republican policy — a dodge, Hunter writes, that South Carolina voters are unlikely to buy. Turning to the war in Ukraine. CNN reported Thursday that Ukraine has run out of Patriot interceptor missiles, following days of friction between Washington and Kiev over intelligence-sharing, internet support, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Two weeks ago, Axios reported that the United States had moved Patriot batteries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar to protect Gulf energy infrastructure from Iranian attack. As Jude Russo writes for The American Conservative, material reality is beginning to bite. Russo argues that the White House's reported cooling toward Ukraine may simply reflect the hard arithmetic of a depleted arsenal: there are only so many missiles to go around, and the United States will not sacrifice its own personnel and economic security for Kiev. He cites Jennifer Kavanagh's reporting in TAC that continued operations in Iran will come at the cost of readiness in other theaters. Russo notes the dynamic that has long bedeviled negotiations — when Russia struggles, Ukraine stiffens; when Ukraine struggles, Russia presses on — and expresses doubt that President Trump's deal waiving sanctions on Russian diesel will meaningfully soften Moscow's position. Russo does not conceal his frustration. The limits of the American defense-industrial base, he writes, have long been visible, as obvious as an iceberg on the horizon. Trying to sustain two major wars in two theaters, he concludes, is madness — and, he adds, don't even mention Taiwan. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  8. Oct 15

    October 15, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Thursday, October 15th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Trump's surprise diesel deal with Putin has shattered trust with Kiev, prompting Zelensky to call the arrangement dishonest and Trump to suggest Ukraine needs a new president, with Ted Snider arguing the real win for Moscow is decoupling U.S.–Russia diplomacy from the war itself. U.S. inflation climbed to 3.7 percent in September as Middle East conflict drove energy prices higher, even as Trump hinted at expanded action against Iran and the Saudi–Houthi war escalated with strikes on Riyadh and Aramco's headquarters. Kimberly Guilfoyle resigned as ambassador to Greece amid corruption allegations, including a reported request for $100,000 from a Trump donor in exchange for administration access. and now for the details. We begin with a diplomatic rupture between Washington and Kiev. Last Friday, while Ukrainian negotiators were meeting with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in Miami, President Trump announced he had struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under the arrangement, Moscow will lift its export ban on diesel fuel and supply hundreds of thousands of tons to the global market in the coming months, eventually totaling nearly five million tons. In exchange, the U.S. Treasury will issue a temporary general license allowing Russia to sell diesel through April of next year. Ukrainian negotiators left Miami in anger, skipped the second day of talks, and President Zelensky called the deal "not fair and not honest." Hours later, Ukraine struck a Russian oil refinery. Trump responded sharply, suggesting it was time for Ukraine to find a new president. As Ted Snider reports, the economic effects of the deal will likely be modest on both sides. Russia's diesel surplus would have found buyers anyway, and the volumes involved are small compared with daily global consumption. The real significance, Snider argues, is political and symbolic. Moscow has secured an economic arrangement with Washington without making any concessions in the Ukraine peace negotiations. That unshackling of U.S.–Russia diplomacy from the war, Snider writes, is the true Russian victory. Meanwhile, Witkoff and Kushner have warned Kiev that intelligence sharing could be cut, Elon Musk has backed Trump's call to replace Zelensky, and SpaceX has reportedly imposed limits on some Starlink services inside Ukraine, disrupting combat drone missions. Turning to the Middle East and its cost at home. U.S. inflation jumped to 3.7 percent in September, up from 3.4 percent the month before, as conflict in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the figures on Wednesday. It was the first monthly rise since May. President Trump, speaking at a campaign rally in Alaska, again hinted at expanded hostilities against Iran, telling the crowd, "Wait till you see what we do to Iran. We're gonna do a number." The Atlantic and other outlets have reported the White House has been pressing the Pentagon to prepare plans for imminent strikes, though Trump denied he would act before the November midterms. From Tehran, the naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Ali Ozmaei, challenged U.S. warships to approach the Strait of Hormuz, saying his forces were "impatient to sink American warships." As Andrew Day reports, the war between Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis also escalated Wednesday, with explosions heard in Riyadh and the Houthis striking the headquarters of Saudi oil company Aramco, pledging further attacks. The inflation data underscores how a distant war is beginning to reach into American household budgets. In Washington personnel news, Kimberly Guilfoyle, the U.S. ambassador to Greece, resigned Tuesday amid corruption allegations. The Wall Street Journal reported she engaged in repeated misconduct, including a threat against a host nation official and influence peddling. In one instance, Guilfoyle allegedly asked a Trump donor for one hundred thousand dollars to pay down her credit card bill, promising administration access in return. White House press secretary Katie Zacharia confirmed earlier Tuesday that the administration had asked Guilfoyle to step down. In her resignation statement, Guilfoyle thanked the president and denied wrongdoing, calling the allegations false and pledging to defend her reputation. President Trump addressed the matter later that day, saying, "She was doing a good job, but we didn't like what we were reading." Andrew Day has the story for TAC. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

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