The American Conservative Morning Briefing

The American Conservative
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A short morning synopsis of TAC's coverage

  1. 15h ago

    July 24, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Friday, July 24th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. As oil surges past $100 and the House passes a war powers resolution, Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby struggles to defend an open-ended Iran campaign, asking the public for more time while dismissing concerns about depleted munitions. President Trump declares the newly unveiled Saudi civil nuclear deal contingent on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords, though officials tell reporters normalization was never actually raised during negotiations. In Kiev, Zelensky's firing of a popular defense minister exposes a pattern of sidelining capable rivals, exploding Western fantasies about Ukraine's democratic resilience. and now for the details. We begin with the war in Iran, now in its 146th day. Brent crude oil surged past 100 dollars a barrel Thursday, rising 7.4 percent, after a twelfth consecutive night of American strikes on Iranian targets. Iran responded with strikes against Jordan and Kuwait. AAA reports the national average price of regular gasoline has climbed to 4 dollars and 9 cents. Adding to the pressure, Yemen's Houthis have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, claiming missile and drone attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Shipping tracker Kpler reports confirmed crude transits through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped 75 percent. President Trump told Axios he is "considering a massive attack, bigger than ever before." On Capitol Hill, four House Republicans joined Democrats to pass a war powers resolution 214 to 208, directing the president to halt the war, citing the lack of congressional approval. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, the vote signals growing bipartisan unease as the conflict enters its fifth month with no clear endpoint. Staying with the war, Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon's undersecretary of defense for policy, sat down this week with the New York Times' Ross Douthat to defend the administration's Iran strategy. Colby, once known as the architect of a China-first defense posture that treated the Persian Gulf as a secondary theater, is now tasked with selling an open-ended Middle Eastern campaign. Jude Russo, writing for The American Conservative, examines the interview closely. Russo notes that Colby waved off concerns about depleted munitions stockpiles, telling listeners the most significant capabilities are not in scarce supply, but declining to offer specifics. On the question of whether the war has become a stalemate, Colby offered only that "it remains to be seen." He asked for more time for the strategy—military force combined with sanctions and diplomatic pressure—to bear fruit. Russo argues that appeals to sanctions ring hollow given their long track record of failing to alter Iranian behavior, and that the stated war aims—denying a nuclear weapon and degrading Iran's military—commit the United States to what analysts call "mowing the grass" indefinitely. Russo's assessment: if this is the smartest case that can be made for the current course, it is not a reassuring one. President Trump announced on Truth Social Thursday that the recently unveiled civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia is "totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords." The agreement, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, would allow the kingdom to receive nuclear power reactors and possibly a domestic uranium enrichment facility, built by American firms. According to the reporting, Riyadh would not be required to submit to the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol on inspections. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomed the normalization condition. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has repeatedly said his country will pursue a nuclear weapon if Iran obtains one. Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative that when reporters asked why Saudi Arabia should be permitted a nuclear program while Iran is not, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the deal "absolutely puts America first." Berger notes that one current and one former U.S. official told Middle East Eye that normalization with Israel was never mentioned as a condition during the actual negotiations. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  2. 1d ago

    July 23, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Thursday, July 23rd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. President Trump threatens to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants in retaliation for any strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, as the war enters its 145th day and shipping through the region collapses. Luke Nicastro warns that "Third Worldism" is becoming the interventionist right's new Islamofascism—a tidy master concept bundling Iran, Cuba, and domestic critics into a single enemy fit for military action. In Britain, new Prime Minister Andy Burnham sets a collision course with Washington by appointing Trump critic Ed Miliband as foreign secretary, despite explicit warnings from a senior Trump official against the pick. and now for the details. We begin with the war in Iran, now in its 145th day. President Trump on Wednesday threatened to escalate American strikes against Iran's civilian infrastructure. In a Truth Social post, the president warned that any time Iran fires on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will, in his words, bomb and destroy one bridge or power plant. This follows the eleventh consecutive night of American strikes on the Islamic Republic. Central Command said its latest round targeted Iranian military operations centers, maritime capabilities, and logistics infrastructure. Iranian media reported that U.S. strikes have hit parts of Iran's electricity grid and water supply, with Radio Free Europe reporting rolling blackouts in Khuzestan Province. Iran responded by firing ballistic missiles and drones at Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Its central military headquarters warned that any American attack on Iranian nuclear facilities would be considered an expansion of the war. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed, with only nine verified transits on Tuesday, while transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait dropped 34 percent in a single day. Brent Crude climbed above 95 dollars per barrel, and the national average gas price sits at 4 dollars and six cents. Speaking at Joint Base Andrews before traveling to Dover to attend the transfer of fallen American servicemen, Trump dismissed polling that shows opposition to the war, saying Americans, quote, love to fight, and only object to high gas prices. Axios reports the White House is also planning a seventh Oval Office visit for Prime Minister Netanyahu next week. Next, a look at the intellectual framework being built to justify the next round of American interventions abroad. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently released a new State Department report on Cuba, describing the Havana government as the leading sponsor of, in his phrase, radical leftism and Third Worldism in the United States. Writing for The American Conservative, Luke Nicastro argues that Third Worldism is becoming for the current interventionist right what Islamofascism was for the neoconservatives of the War on Terror era: a tidy master concept that bundles disparate adversaries into a single enemy and makes them, as Nicastro puts it, nails for the hammer of the U.S. military. The term, popularized in its current form by analyst Zineb Riboua, casts figures as varied as Iranian officials, Cuba's Miguel Diaz-Canel, and New York politician Zohran Mamdani as united by a common resentment toward the West and toward Israel. Nicastro points to the State Department report itself, which characterizes impoverished Cuba as, quote, less a nation-state than an all-encompassing intelligence and subversion operation aimed at conquering the United States. He argues that this framework relieves policymakers of the burden of serious analysis, collapsing a complex world into a just-so story where negotiation is impossible and only victory will do. Nicastro warns that as a theoretical foundation for policy, Third Worldism is as ridiculous as the assumptions that drew America into Iraq and Afghanistan, and potentially just as ruinous. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  3. 2d ago

    July 22, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Wednesday, July 22nd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Phillip Linderman reports that the battle over Trump's slim slate of career ambassadors is less about diplomatic expertise than about who truly directs American foreign policy—the president or an entrenched Foreign Service old guard. On day 144 of the Iran War, U.S. forces struck Iranian targets for a tenth night as regional mediators floated a ten-day ceasefire and the Pentagon acknowledged nearly one hundred American troops have been injured in recent weeks. Oil prices climbed above ninety-one dollars a barrel and gasoline hit a national average of four dollars and two cents, even as Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared the current situation "good for us.". and now for the details. We begin at Foggy Bottom, where a quiet but consequential battle is underway over who actually runs American foreign policy. President Trump has so far named only nine career Foreign Service officers as ambassadors, a sharp break from recent administrations, where career diplomats typically filled the majority of such posts. Under George W. Bush and Barack Obama, the split was roughly seventy-thirty in favor of career officers. Under Biden, sixty-forty. Even in the first Trump term, it was fifty-five to forty-five. This time, the White House is closely vetting each career nominee rather than deferring to the State Department's internal selection process. As Phillip Linderman reports, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the White House have concluded that the traditional pipeline is too heavily shaped by a Foreign Service old guard fundamentally out of step with the administration on foreign assistance, international organizations, and visa policy. Linderman notes that critics inside State are framing the shift as "partisan" and even invoking comparisons to the McCarthy era, quoting former CIA director Bill Burns. But Linderman argues the fight is not about expertise. It is about power—specifically, whether the president or the permanent bureaucracy directs American diplomacy. By elevating a new generation of officers focused on national-interest priorities, he writes, the administration is attempting a long-term reshaping of the diplomatic corps, one designed to outlast a single presidency. Turning to the Middle East, the Iran War entered its one hundred and forty-fourth day Tuesday, with U.S. forces conducting a tenth night of airstrikes on Iranian command centers, missile sites, and air defenses. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed retaliatory strikes on a U.S. military base and an Amazon data center in Bahrain, and reported attacks on radar and aircraft in Jordan. Kuwait again reported Iranian strikes on its power and water infrastructure. As Harrison Berger reports, Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan, and other regional mediators have now presented Washington and Tehran with a proposal for a ten-day ceasefire, which American negotiators are said to be exploring. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell acknowledged Monday that nearly one hundred U.S. troops have been injured over the past two weeks, following a New York Times report that the military had withheld the figures. In Israel, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told a conference Tuesday that "the current situation is good for us," adding that Israel has no interest in joining the campaign directly. President Trump, meeting with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the White House, said Israel is "in the process" of withdrawing from Lebanon. Brent crude traded above ninety-one dollars a barrel, and AAA reported the national average price of regular gasoline has now risen to four dollars and two cents. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  4. 3d ago

    July 21, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Tuesday, July 21st 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. W. James Antle III argues President Trump still has a narrow window to reshape the headlines and salvage GOP midterm prospects, as the resumed Iran war threatens to eclipse falling inflation and expose Republicans to a quagmire they cannot outrun by Labor Day. On day 143 of the Iran war, fresh U.S. airstrikes and Iranian retaliation have brought more American casualties, collapsed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and pushed gas prices above four dollars a gallon — though mediators have floated a 10-day ceasefire proposal. Yemen's Houthis have declared an immediate maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, putting the Yanbu pipeline and Red Sea export routes — the last major workaround to the Hormuz crisis — squarely in their crosshairs. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a look at the political stakes of the ongoing Iran war for President Trump and congressional Republicans as the midterm elections approach. Just weeks ago, headlines were dominated by falling inflation numbers, with core inflation dropping to 2.6 percent in June and mortgage rates easing. Those were the headlines of a ceasefire. Now, with the war resumed, the front pages instead carry news of American service members killed, depleted munitions stockpiles, and the risk of a wider conflict. As W. James Antle III writes, public perceptions of the economy will be largely baked in by Labor Day, and attitudes about the Iran war may already be set — neither to the president's benefit nor to the benefit of Republicans defending narrow majorities on Capitol Hill. Antle notes that Trump himself, in a recent Fox and Friends interview, acknowledged that he did not know if America has the stomach for taking Iran's Kharg Island, saying the public would like to see the troops come home. Iran is tightening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. bargaining leverage has weakened compared to a decade ago, and casualties will further sap public support while making a diplomatic exit harder to secure. Antle warns these are the ingredients of a quagmire — precisely what Trump had said he wanted to avoid — and argues that the president still retains some power to shape what headlines are written in the days ahead. Turning to the war itself, now in its 143rd day. U.S. Central Command conducted a fresh round of overnight airstrikes on Iranian military command centers, air defenses, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks. Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases and infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain. The Department of Defense on Monday released the names of two more American service members killed by Iran over the weekend — 19-year-old Private Isabella Gonzales of Carrollton, Texas, and 25-year-old Lieutenant Tyler James Feehan of Ewa Beach, Hawaii. President Trump vowed on Truth Social that every American killed will be avenged many times over. The New York Times reported that the Pentagon has withheld information about dozens of injured service members, a claim the Defense Department disputes. Harrison Berger reports that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed, with just eight vessels transiting on Sunday and only 30 verified crossings between July 17 and 19. Two tankers were struck off the coast of Oman on Monday. Brent Crude is now trading above $88 a barrel, and AAA reports the average American gas price has crossed $4 a gallon for the first time since mid-June. There is, however, one thread of hope: Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official, reports that mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire to revive an interim deal, and Iran's Foreign Ministry has confirmed receiving the proposal. The White House highlighted polling this morning showing broad public support for a peace deal to end the war. The war's ripple effects extended further Monday when Yemen's Houthis announced the immediate launch of what they are calling a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia. The group cited recent strikes on Sana'a International Airport and what it described as a nearly twelve-year Saudi siege of Yemen. As Harrison Berger reports, it is not yet clear how broadly the Houthis intend to enforce the embargo, but the target set is significant. Saudi Arabia exports energy westward to the Red Sea ports of Yanbu and Jeddah, and the Yanbu pipeline — which handles up to 5 million barrels per day — has been serving as an alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz, helping offset the disruption there. NBC News reports that a full closure of the Bab el-Mandeb strait would cut global oil supply by seven percent, leaving most Saudi exports stranded. The Houthi announcement puts one of the last working workarounds to the Hormuz crisis directly in the crosshairs. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  5. 4d ago

    July 20, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Monday, July 20th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. A third American service member was killed this weekend in the Iran war, bringing the U.S. death toll to seventeen as CENTCOM completes its eighth consecutive night of strikes and Iranian attacks batter Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Peter Van Buren asks why the State Department has been sidelined in Trump's second term, arguing that Foggy Bottom's culture of leaks, dissent memos, and impeachment-era resistance has left it under siege and largely bypassed by special envoys. Scott Greer warns that Colorado's nomination of eccentric outsider Victor Marx shows the GOP's "Insane Clown Party" streak, but argues it poses far less danger than the Democratic Socialists actually winning primaries on the left. and now for the details. We begin with breaking news from the Iran war. U.S. Central Command announced Sunday that a third American service member has been killed in action this weekend. The service member, whose name has not yet been released, died in northern Iraq during what CENTCOM described as a controlled detonation of unexploded ordnance from a downed Iranian one-way attack drone. Another service member was injured in that incident and is receiving medical care. CENTCOM also confirmed that it has recovered unidentified human remains from Jordan, where a separate Iranian attack on Saturday resulted in two confirmed American deaths and one service member listed as missing in action. Efforts to identify those remains, the Pentagon says, are ongoing. As Luke Nicastro reports for The American Conservative, the three confirmed fatalities this weekend bring the total number of U.S. troops killed in the conflict to seventeen. Those American deaths come as the Iran war enters its one hundred and forty-second day. As Harrison Berger reports, CENTCOM has now completed its eighth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, targeting what it describes as Iranian coastal surveillance and air defense facilities, maritime capabilities, missile and drone storage sites, and Revolutionary Guard forces linked to the July 17 attacks on U.S. troops in Jordan. Iranian officials say American strikes hit civilian infrastructure in the port city of Chabahar and knocked out power and desalination pumps in Jask, leaving more than ten thousand people without drinking water. Iran, in turn, launched drones and missiles at targets in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait. Kuwait says a power and desalination plant was struck for the second time in two days. The international airport in Aqaba, Jordan was evacuated Sunday after what the U.S. embassy called a specific and credible threat. Berger notes that Jordan has become a focal point for Iranian attacks because other American allies in the region have restricted Washington's ability to base troops on and fly aircraft over their territory. The Pentagon says more than fifty thousand U.S. service members are currently deployed across the Middle East. In a post on Truth Social Sunday, President Trump called on Congress to add Iran to the Russian sanctions bill. Turning to the diplomatic front of that same conflict, The American Conservative asks why the State Department has been so thoroughly sidelined under the Trump administration's second term. As Peter Van Buren writes, eighteen months in, State is not just marginal, it appears under siege. More than thirteen hundred employees were cut in a reduction in force last year, ambassadorial posts sit empty from Moldova to Cyprus to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and America's most sensitive diplomacy, including negotiations with Iran and Ukraine, is being run by special envoys rather than career diplomats. Van Buren argues that State's response has been to hold rallies with Democratic congressmembers, plant sympathetic press pieces, and complain about new performance evaluations, without offering specifics on what results the department actually delivers. He traces the estrangement back to the first Trump term, when Foreign Service officers slow-walked Secretary Rex Tillerson, leaked internal memos to the Washington Post, and played starring roles in the Ukraine impeachment hearings. Van Buren's argument is that institutions survive only when elected leaders believe they advance policy rather than resist it, and that State's real challenge is not rebuilding its workforce but rebuilding the trust of the government it is supposed to serve. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  6. 5d ago

    July 19, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Sunday, July 19th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Two American soldiers were killed and one is missing after Iran struck a Jordanian air base, marking the first U.S. combat deaths since hostilities resumed, as Tehran suspends the Islamabad memorandum and strikes spread across the region. Jude Russo offers a pointed historical parable about a leader who attacked Iran expecting easy victory, only to find himself mired in indecisive war, civilian devastation, and eventual ruin—revealing at the end that his subject is Saddam Hussein. Ben Sixsmith argues that the Save Our Bacon Act has produced a rare bipartisan opening on animal welfare, uniting conservatives and progressives against factory farming's cruelties. and now for the details. We begin with breaking news from the Iran War. Two American soldiers have been killed and a third is missing in action after Iran struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan with drones and ballistic missiles. U.S. Central Command announced the losses on Saturday, saying the service members died on July 17 while defending against the Iranian attack. Four other soldiers were evacuated for medical treatment and have since been discharged. As Joseph Addington reports for The American Conservative, this is the first strike to kill American troops since the resumption of hostilities between Washington and the Islamic Republic last week. It also marks the first U.S. military deaths in the Iran War since March 12, when a KC-135 tanker aircraft crashed while supporting operations against Iran, killing six soldiers. Staying with the war, Iran's Foreign Ministry announced Saturday that Tehran has suspended its commitments under the Islamabad memorandum of understanding with the United States. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi accused Washington of having, in his words, "effectively trampled on and halted all of its commitments." As Harrison Berger reports, CENTCOM says it struck Iranian surveillance sites, military logistics, and underground weapons storage in support of a renewed naval blockade. The BBC reports that overnight U.S. strikes destroyed an Iranian water desalination facility, leaving roughly ten thousand people without drinking water, with damaged roads and bridges hampering relief. Iran retaliated against U.S. bases across the region, striking targets in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, and hitting Saudi territory for the first time in four months with an attack on Prince Sultan Air Base. Amnesty International released a report Saturday concluding that some Iranian drone strikes on Bahrain and Saudi Arabia may constitute war crimes. Iran's Health Ministry says U.S. attacks since July 6 have killed at least 50 people. For historical perspective on this widening conflict, Jude Russo offers a column that, he insists, is not about Trump's foreign policy. Russo tells the story of a leader who launched an assault on the Islamic Republic of Iran after observing its internal disorder, backed by pliant elites drawn from his own social circles, with little serious thought given to strategy. That leader was surprised to meet a foe who fought back with ferocity and ingenuity, and dismayed to find his attack had strengthened the ayatollahs' grip on power. What followed was indecisive war, failed ceasefires, mounting debt, escalating strikes on civilian infrastructure, and a hollow peace that restored the status quo. The aggressor then turned to invade a smaller neighbor to refill the treasury and win martial glory, only to be crushed by a distant superpower. Russo reveals at the end that he is describing Saddam Hussein, the Iran–Iraq War, the invasion of Kuwait, and the First Gulf War. The parallels, he leaves to the reader. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  7. 6d ago

    July 18, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Saturday, July 18th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Rahm Emanuel's Tel Aviv speech recasts him as an Israel critic, but Harrison Berger reports the Israel lobby's applause and his refusal to back an arms embargo reveal a strategy to placate Democratic voters without changing policy. As Israel and its allies quietly move to embed military aid inside the Pentagon's procurement system, Congress could lose the ability to vote on the annual Foreign Military Financing line item altogether. In Britain, Andy Burnham's debut speech as Labour leader promised a "new politics" and hinted at a wealth tax, but Iain Macwhirter argues his slogans and statist instincts point only to continued economic decline. and now for the details. We begin with a look at the shifting rhetoric inside the Democratic Party on Israel, and what may lie beneath it. Former Chicago Mayor and Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, widely believed to be preparing a 2028 presidential run, traveled this month to Tel Aviv to deliver a speech at Tel Aviv University. In it, he broke with the usual script of Democratic hopefuls, criticizing Israel's conduct in Gaza, warning that Israel had allowed itself to become, in his words, a "territorial pariah," and pledging sanctions on Israelis attacking Palestinian civilians, on officials who back such violence, and on companies financing illegal settlements. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, that tough talk was quickly endorsed by the Democratic Majority for Israel and echoed the so-called "23-state solution" originally floated by the liberal Israel lobby group J Street. Pressed by the Financial Times, Emanuel confirmed he still wants the United States to sell weapons to Israel and walked back any suggestion of an arms embargo. Berger notes that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself has spoken of tapering off direct military aid, precisely because Israel and its lobby are moving to embed the arrangement inside the Pentagon's procurement system through Section 219 of the National Defense Authorization Act. That change, Berger writes, would remove the annual Foreign Military Financing line item Congress can vote on, and replace it with opaque defense-industrial integration that carries no line for lawmakers like Representative Thomas Massie to strike. Journalist Max Blumenthal, quoted in the piece, argues this is the template Democratic candidates will now use to placate a base that has turned sharply against Israel without actually changing policy. Across the Atlantic, Britain is about to get its seventh prime minister in a decade. Andy Burnham delivered his first speech as leader of the Labour Party on Friday, ahead of taking office at Number 10 on Monday. He promised, in his words, "good growth in every postcode and hope in every heart," a "new politics" free of factionalism, and a transfer of power away from Westminster and Whitehall to local communities. He also pledged to fix Britain's long-running social care crisis, so that elderly Britons no longer have to sell their homes to pay for care. Writing for The American Conservative, Iain Macwhirter finds the speech long on slogans and short on specifics. Macwhirter notes that Boris Johnson had already proposed a lifetime cap on care costs, only to see it scrapped by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in 2024. Burnham blamed four decades of neoliberalism since Margaret Thatcher for deindustrialization and stagnant wages, and hinted at a wealth tax and further tax rises to come. Macwhirter points out that Britain's tax burden is already at levels not seen since the Second World War, that business and energy costs are strangling industry, and that most European countries which tried wealth taxes, including Sweden, Denmark, and Austria, have since abandoned them because they raised little revenue and discouraged investment. Burnham's recipe of bringing transport and utilities back into public ownership, Macwhirter concludes, is likely to deliver only continuity in Britain's economic and social decline. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

  8. Jul 17

    July 17, 2026

    Good morning! Today is Friday, July 17th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. With the Iran War in its 139th day, U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation across the Gulf are pushing the region toward wider conflict as President Trump threatens to bomb Iran's power grid and bridges next week. Leonid Ragozin argues Trump has been sold a "tide is turning" narrative on Ukraine, warning that every prior Western attempt to coerce Moscow has ended in fiasco and worse terms for Kyiv. In an interview with The American Conservative, Tucker Carlson calls the West's demographic transformation "mass suicide" and something "world-historic" that elites have refused to allow anyone to discuss. and now for the details. The Iran War has now entered its 139th day, with no sign of de-escalation. Overnight, U.S. Central Command launched fresh airstrikes on what it described as Iranian command centers, air defense sites, and missile and drone capabilities. Defense analysts, however, note that many of the sites CENTCOM claims to have targeted lie deep beneath granite mountains that American munitions may not be able to penetrate. Iran's Foreign Ministry also condemned a reported U.S. strike near a children's cancer hospital in Shahid Baqaei, where more than 200 chemotherapy patients had to be evacuated. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it struck U.S. bases and facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. The stakes rose further after President Trump warned Wednesday that the U.S. would bomb Iran's power plants and bridges next week unless Tehran returns to negotiations. Iran's central military headquarters responded that if that threat is carried out, it will destroy, quote, "all the infrastructure in the region." Reuters reports Iran has asked the Yemeni Houthis to shut down the Bab al-Mandab Strait if American strikes hit its power plants. As Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has already collapsed, with only 13 vessels transiting on Wednesday, and Brent crude climbed above $85 a barrel Thursday morning. President Trump, who once promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his second inauguration, now appears to have adopted the escalation posture of his predecessor. At last week's NATO summit in Ankara, Trump called Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, quote, "an escalation that can help lead to an end," and praised President Zelensky for doing "an amazing job." Writing for The American Conservative, Leonid Ragozin argues that Trump's shift follows a coordinated PR campaign aimed squarely at the president himself, designed to persuade him that "the tide is turning" against Moscow. Ragozin is skeptical. He notes that Russians have endured far worse hardship in living memory, and that while Ukrainians brace for another winter in unheated apartments, Russians so far face only longer lines at the pump. Russia, he writes, has begun inching toward total war, methodically targeting Ukrainian petrol stations, food-processing facilities, and agricultural equipment. Ragozin argues that every previous Western attempt to coerce Moscow, from the collapse of the Minsk framework to the abandonment of the Istanbul talks, has ended in fiasco, with Ukraine emerging from each escalation facing far worse terms. He warns that Trump may be trying to atone for the Iran debacle by proving himself tough on Russia, but that this path risks producing an even greater catastrophe. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.

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