The Macro Memo with Fexingo: Daily Conversations on Inflation, GDP, and Federal Reserve Policy

Fexingo

Each day, Lucas and Luna sit down with the latest macro data to decode what it actually means for markets, businesses, and your portfolio. They don't just report the CPI print or the Fed's dot plot — they argue about what the numbers imply for the yield curve, corporate borrowing costs, and the probability of a soft landing. Lucas pushes for historical context: how does today's inflation compare to the 1970s, and what does the Taylor rule suggest now? Luna counters with sector-level evidence: which industries are passing through costs, which are absorbing them, and where are margins actually compressing? Together, they walk through GDP revisions, employment cost indexes, and real-time fed funds futures to separate signal from noise. This is for listeners who already know the difference between M2 and M1 and want a conversation that treats them like professionals — not a primer. No guests, no hot takes, just two analysts who read the same Fed transcripts you do and disagree about what comes next. After each episode, you'll have a clearer sense of which macro risk actually keeps you up at night. #MacroMemo #FederalReserve #Inflation #GDP #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #CPI #EmploymentData #InterestRates #EconomicForecasting #CentralBanking #BusinessCycle #Economics #FexingoBusiness #DailyPodcast #MarketData #MacroAnalysis #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

  1. 6h ago

    Why Wages Are Rising While Inflation Stays Sticky

    In this episode of The Macro Memo, Lucas and Luna examine a confusing signal in the latest economic data: average hourly earnings are up to $37.50, accelerating at a 3.8 percent annual rate, yet core PCE inflation is stuck at 3.3 percent. They unpack the question on every macro investor's mind — are higher wages feeding into sticky services inflation, or is the economy just absorbing the cost without passing it through? Using the April CPI and PCE releases, plus the May ADP payrolls number of 122,000, they drill into the composition of wage growth by sector and the implications for the Fed's rate path. The conversation also touches on the surge in long-term unemployment as a potential wage dampener, and what Friday's May jobs report could reveal about whether this trend is sustainable. A focused, numbers-driven look at the wage-price spiral debate as of June 2026. #WageGrowth #StickyInflation #FederalReserve #CorePCE #AverageHourlyEarnings #UnemploymentRate #ADPPayrolls #JobsReport #LaborMarket #ServicesInflation #WagePriceSpiral #MacroEconomics #FOMC #RateCuts #LongTermUnemployment #CPI #InflationData #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    8 min

  2. 18h ago

    What the Yield Curve Inversion Says About Recession Risk Now

    Long-term interest rates are rising even as the Fed holds short rates steady. The yield curve has inverted for over two years, but stock markets are near highs. In this episode, Lucas and Luna sift through the data on what the bond market is actually signaling. They look at the spread between the 10-year Treasury at 4.54 percent and the 2-year at 4.28 percent, the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.62 percent, and why this persistent inversion feels different from past cycles. The conversation then turns to what it means for borrowing costs, corporate investment, and whether recession warnings have expired. Specific numbers and real economic context cut through the noise. #YieldCurve #BondMarket #Recession #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Treasury #Inflation #EconomicOutlook #MacroEconomics #MonetaryPolicy #Investing #StockMarket #BondYield #GDP #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsPodcast #MacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    9 min

  3. 1d ago

    The May Jobs Report Numbers Markets Missed

    Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 jobs report data, digging into the payrolls number that beat expectations and the long-term unemployment surge that markets are undervaluing. They discuss what the 4.3 percent unemployment rate actually signals, why job openings jumped to 7.6 million, and how the Fed is likely to interpret the conflicting signals. A focused look at one labor market paradox that changes the rate-cut timeline. #MayJobsReport #LaborMarket #Unemployment #LongTermUnemployment #JOLTS #JobOpenings #NonfarmPayrolls #FederalReserve #RateCuts #ADP #Inflation #JobsFriday #LaborForce #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MacroMemo #EconomicData Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    8 min

  4. 1d ago

    What the May Jobs Report Will Reveal About the Labor Market

    With the May jobs report dropping tomorrow, Lucas and Luna break down what the data is likely to show and why markets might be misreading the trend. They focus on a key tension: job openings have surged past 7.6 million, but long-term unemployment is also climbing. The hosts explain how these two signals coexist and what they mean for the Fed's next move. They also examine the ADP private payrolls number of 122,000 and what it tells us about hiring momentum. Anchored in the latest JOLTS and unemployment data, this episode helps you see past the headline number. #JobsReport #May2026 #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Unemployment #FedPolicy #RateCuts #ADP #NonfarmPayrolls #LongTermUnemployment #EconomicData #Inflation #MacroEconomics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economy #CentralBanking #LaborForce Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    7 min

  5. 2d ago

    Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging With a 4.3 Percent Jobless Rate

    The unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, historically low. But beneath that headline number, long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—has jumped nearly 20 percent since last year. Lucas and Luna dig into the May jobs data, the JOLTS surge to 7.6 million openings, and the structural mismatch keeping workers on the sidelines. They explore why the Fed's rate-cutting path gets murkier when the labor market looks strong on the surface but fragile underneath. A concrete look at a hidden stress point in the economy, anchored to the latest numbers from June 2026. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #FedPolicy #JOLTS #JobsReport #MayJobs2026 #UnemploymentRate #StructuralMismatch #EconomicIndicators #HiringSlowdown #FedRateCuts #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicsShow #MacroMemo #JoblessClaims #WageGrowth Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    10 min

  6. 2d ago

    The May Jobs Report Preview What Markets Are Pricing Wrong

    With the May jobs report due Friday and long-term unemployment rising, Lucas and Luna dig into the specific disconnect between headline payrolls and the hidden deterioration in labor force quality. The unemployment rate has stayed flat at 4.3 percent for months, but initial jobless claims just jumped to 225,000 — the highest since early 2025. Meanwhile, the JOLTS data showed a surprise surge in job openings to 7.6 million, yet the Fed is still cutting rates. Lucas explains why markets may be misreading the composition of hiring: temporary versus permanent jobs, full-time versus part-time. They also parse the ADP private payrolls number — 122,000 in May, stronger than expected — and what it means for the Fed's next move. The episode closes with a look at how long-term unemployment is quietly climbing and why that changes the policy calculus. #MayJobsReport #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #JOLTS #Unemployment #ADP #NonfarmPayrolls #JoblessClaims #LongTermUnemployment #RateCuts #CorePCE #Inflation #GDP #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicData #JobsFriday #HiddenUnemployment Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    9 min

  7. 3d ago

    Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging What It Signals

    Lucas and Luna unpack a worrying trend in the labor market: long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—is rising even as headline jobless claims stay low. They dig into the April data, where job openings rebounded to 7.6 million yet long-term unemployment hit levels not seen since 2021. Lucas explains what this 'duration problem' means for the Fed's rate path, wage growth, and worker re-entry. Luna shares why the typical solution—retraining programs—often falls short. A specific, data-driven look at a hidden vulnerability in an otherwise resilient jobs market, and why the May jobs report on Friday matters even more this month. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JobsReport #JOLTS #FederalReserve #InterestRates #WageGrowth #EconomicIndicators #UnemploymentRate #HiringSlowdown #WorkerSkills #Retraining #MayJobsReport #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #JoblessClaims Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    9 min

  8. 3d ago

    The JOLTS Surge That Changes Everything About the Labor Market

    Job openings in the U.S. surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna dig into what this JOLTS number really means—why it jumped while unemployment stayed at 4.3 percent, how the Fed is reading it, and whether this is a sign of strength or a statistical mirage. They break down the gap between openings and hires, the role of quits vs. layoffs, and what it means for the rate-cut timeline. If you think you understand the labor market, this episode will change your mind. #JOLTS #JobOpenings #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #RateCuts #Unemployment #EconomicData #MacroMemo #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Inflation #Hiring #Quits #Layoffs #DataMirage #BureauOfLaborStatistics #Economy Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    8 min
See All (39)

About

Each day, Lucas and Luna sit down with the latest macro data to decode what it actually means for markets, businesses, and your portfolio. They don't just report the CPI print or the Fed's dot plot — they argue about what the numbers imply for the yield curve, corporate borrowing costs, and the probability of a soft landing. Lucas pushes for historical context: how does today's inflation compare to the 1970s, and what does the Taylor rule suggest now? Luna counters with sector-level evidence: which industries are passing through costs, which are absorbing them, and where are margins actually compressing? Together, they walk through GDP revisions, employment cost indexes, and real-time fed funds futures to separate signal from noise. This is for listeners who already know the difference between M2 and M1 and want a conversation that treats them like professionals — not a primer. No guests, no hot takes, just two analysts who read the same Fed transcripts you do and disagree about what comes next. After each episode, you'll have a clearer sense of which macro risk actually keeps you up at night. #MacroMemo #FederalReserve #Inflation #GDP #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #CPI #EmploymentData #InterestRates #EconomicForecasting #CentralBanking #BusinessCycle #Economics #FexingoBusiness #DailyPodcast #MarketData #MacroAnalysis #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

Information