The Economic Forecast Podcast with Fexingo: Predictions, Outlooks, and What's Coming Next

Fexingo

Every weekday, Lucas and Luna sit down at the forecast desk to examine the macroeconomic forces shaping the next quarter, the next year, and the next decade. They don't trade in headlines or market chatter. Instead, they walk through the actual data releases—CPI prints, payroll reports, PMI surveys, central-bank statements—and debate what the numbers mean for investors, business leaders, and policymakers. Lucas, the lead, draws on a journalist's instinct for what matters; Luna, the engaged interlocutor, pushes back with the skepticism of a veteran analyst. Together they dissect fan-of-possibilities projections from the Fed and the IMF, weigh the odds of recession versus soft landing, and trace how shifts in fiscal policy ripple through bond markets, currencies, and capital flows. The listener is someone who already knows the difference between a basis point and a percentage point, who reads central-bank minutes for fun, and who wants a conversation that treats macroeconomics as a discipline—not a spectator sport. Each episode leaves you with one specific question: given what we know today, which of those branching forecast paths is most likely, and why? #Macroeconomics #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #CPI #NonfarmPayrolls #PMI #GDP #Inflation #InterestRates #BondMarket #FiscalPolicy #RecessionWatch #SoftLanding #IMF #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

  1. 3h ago

    Why the Yield Curve Inversion Is Breaking Up

    The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but something changed this week: the two-year Treasury yield dropped below the three-month bill for the first time since 2023. Lucas and Luna unpack what this partial normalization means for the Fed, for recession signals, and for your portfolio. They walk through the specific yield levels as of June 8, 2026 — the two-year at 3.62%, the ten-year at 4.54%, the thirty-year at 5.00% — and explain why the curve is steepening even as short rates fall. They compare today's inversion structure to past cycles and ask whether this is the beginning of the end of the Fed's hiking cycle or just another head fake. #YieldCurve #Treasury #FederalReserve #Inversion #Steepening #TwoYearYield #TenYearYield #ThirtyYearYield #RecessionSignal #BondMarket #FixedIncome #MonetaryPolicy #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheEconomicForecastPodcast #June2026 #RateOutlook Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    12 min

  2. 15h ago

    The Small-Cap Crash in June 2026 Explained

    The Russell 2000 is down 2.5% in five days while the Dow barely budged. Lucas and Luna dig into the small-cap selloff: why the divergence with large caps is widening, how the VIX surge to 21.5 is hitting small companies hardest, and what the May jobs report on Friday could mean for this corner of the market. They break down the leverage dynamic, the rising Treasury yields, and whether this is a buying opportunity or a warning signal. Plus, a quick look at what the VIX-VVIX gap tells us about complacency versus actual hedging activity. Recorded June 7, 2026. #SmallCapCrash #Russell2000 #VIX #VVIX #StockMarket #MarketDivergence #TreasuryYields #Leverage #MayJobsReport #NonfarmPayrolls #SmallCapStocks #MarketVolatility #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #Investing #RiskParity Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    6 min

  3. 1d ago

    The Widening Gap Between the NASDAQ and the Dow in June 2026

    The NASDAQ has dropped 5.1% in the last five days while the Dow is essentially flat. Lucas and Luna break down what's driving the divergence — tech giants getting hit by tariff exposure and rising long-term bond yields, while industrial and financial stocks hold up. They look at the composition gap, the role of the ten-year Treasury at 4.54%, and what the VIX surge to 21.5 tells us about where risk is concentrated. Plus: what this means for the 'soft landing' narrative the market has been betting on. #NASDAQ #DowJones #StockMarketDivergence #TechSelloff #BondYields #VIX #TariffImpact #SoftLanding #MarketRegimeChange #GrowthStocks #ValueStocks #FederalReserve #Inflation #EconomicForecast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #MarketVolatility Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    8 min

  4. 1d ago

    How the VIX Surge Is Signaling a Regime Change

    The VIX has surged 34% in five days to 21.51, while the VVIX has only risen 11.4%. Lucas and Luna unpack what this divergence means for investors. They explore why the VIX is climbing faster than options on the VIX, a pattern that historically precedes sharp market moves. The episode drills into the Fed's holding pattern, the labor market's mixed signals, and why the yield curve steepening adds to the uncertainty. No clickbait—just a focused look at what the fear index is really saying as of June 6, 2026. #VIX #VVIX #MarketVolatility #StockMarket #Fed #Inflation #YieldCurve #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Unemployment #Investing #Economics #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #MarketRegime #FearIndex Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    7 min

  5. 2d ago

    Why Core Inflation Is Stuck Above the Fed's Target

    In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the April 2026 CPI and PCE data to understand why core inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target despite a cooling economy. They examine a surprising divergence: headline CPI fell to 332.4, but core CPI rose to 335.4, driven by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core services excluding housing — the so-called 'supercore' category. Lucas explains how a tight labor market with 7.6 million job openings and rising average hourly earnings to $37.50 are keeping service-sector inflation sticky, even as goods prices moderate. Luna points out the paradox that the unemployment rate holds at 4.3%, yet long-term unemployment is surging, hinting at structural shifts that could prolong the inflation problem. They also explore the market's reaction: the VIX spiking 34% to 21.51 while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.54%, suggesting investors are pricing in persistent inflation risk. The episode concludes with a look ahead to the May jobs report and whether the Fed can afford to stay on hold. #Inflation #CoreCPI #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Supercore #PCE #MonetaryPolicy #June2026 #EconomicForecast #StickyInflation #TreasuryYield #VIX #WageGrowth #LongTermUnemployment #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    8 min

  6. 2d ago

    Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging in 2026

    The May jobs report is out Friday, but the real story is the quiet surge in long-term unemployment. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data: job openings hit a two-year high, yet the share of unemployed out of work for 27 weeks or more is climbing. They explore why this mismatch is happening, how it affects wage growth and inflation, and what it signals about the health of the labor market. Plus, a look at the hidden costs for workers and the economy. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JobsReport #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicForecast #Podcast #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #JoblessClaims #StructuralUnemployment #SkillsMismatch #May2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    7 min

  7. 3d ago

    The Hidden Cost of Long-Term Unemployment in June 2026

    The May jobs report drops Friday, but beneath the headline payroll number, a troubling trend is building: long-term unemployment is surging. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data—initial jobless claims spiked to 225,000, and the number of workers jobless for 27 weeks or more is rising fast. They explore why this matters for the Fed's rate path, consumer spending, and the broader economy, and what it means if you're one of the millions caught in the gap. #LongTermUnemployment #JobsReport #May2026 #EconomicForecast #FedPolicy #LaborMarket #InitialJoblessClaims #JoblessRecovery #Hysteresis #ConsumerSpending #UnemploymentRate #WageGrowth #InterestRates #Inflation #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    7 min

  8. 3d ago

    The Hidden Cost of Long-Term Unemployment in June 2026

    With the May jobs report due Friday, Lucas and Luna dig into a worrying trend beneath the headline numbers: long-term unemployment is surging even as overall job openings hit a two-year high. Using the latest JOLTS data and the Fed's Beige Book anecdotes, they explore why workers who have been out of work for more than six months are getting left behind — and what that means for wage growth, inflation stickiness, and the labor market's structural health. They also touch on the diverging signals between the VIX and VVIX and what the yield curve steepening tells us about recession odds. A specific, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the real economy behind the headlines. #LongTermUnemployment #JobsReport #LaborMarket #JOLTS #VIX #VVIX #YieldCurve #Inflation #WageGrowth #May2026 #FOMC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedPolicy #StructuralUnemployment #LaborForceParticipation #ADP Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

    8 min
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About

Every weekday, Lucas and Luna sit down at the forecast desk to examine the macroeconomic forces shaping the next quarter, the next year, and the next decade. They don't trade in headlines or market chatter. Instead, they walk through the actual data releases—CPI prints, payroll reports, PMI surveys, central-bank statements—and debate what the numbers mean for investors, business leaders, and policymakers. Lucas, the lead, draws on a journalist's instinct for what matters; Luna, the engaged interlocutor, pushes back with the skepticism of a veteran analyst. Together they dissect fan-of-possibilities projections from the Fed and the IMF, weigh the odds of recession versus soft landing, and trace how shifts in fiscal policy ripple through bond markets, currencies, and capital flows. The listener is someone who already knows the difference between a basis point and a percentage point, who reads central-bank minutes for fun, and who wants a conversation that treats macroeconomics as a discipline—not a spectator sport. Each episode leaves you with one specific question: given what we know today, which of those branching forecast paths is most likely, and why? #Macroeconomics #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #CPI #NonfarmPayrolls #PMI #GDP #Inflation #InterestRates #BondMarket #FiscalPolicy #RecessionWatch #SoftLanding #IMF #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo

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