Media Monitor

Sean Wright, Kelly Sweeney

Media Monitor is a data-led podcast unpacking what’s really happening across advertising, media, and consumer behavior—and what it means next. Hosted by Sean Wright and Kelly Sweeney from Guideline.ai, the show breaks down the signals behind the headlines: ad spend shifts, market trends, economic pressure points, and emerging opportunities shaping the media ecosystem. Each episode translates complex data into clear insight, helping brands, agencies, and decision-makers cut through noise, reduce uncertainty, and make smarter strategic calls. If media is changing faster than ever, Media Monitor helps you understand why, how, and what to watch next.

  1. 1d ago

    Political Ad Spending, OpenAI & the Future of Digital Advertising|E48

    Political advertising is reaching new highs. AI advertising is taking shape. And major technology platforms continue to influence how advertisers reach audiences. In this week's Media Monitor, Sean Wright examines four developments shaping the advertising industry: U.S. midterm election spending, OpenAI's reported brand-suitability testing, Amazon's perspective on AI shopping agents, and Meta's changing advertising policies. U.S. midterm advertising could reach $13.3 billion The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are expected to generate approximately $13.3 billion in political advertising spending, according to the forecast discussed in the episode. That would represent a record for a midterm election, although still below the approximately $15 billion cited for the 2024 presidential election cycle. Sean examines why political advertising spending continues to rise even as the number of competitive congressional races declines. He also discusses the increasing role of issue advertising, ballot measures, and outside political spending. Political advertising moves toward connected TV Traditional broadcast television has historically captured a substantial share of U.S. political advertising budgets. But that distribution is changing. Sean discusses estimates suggesting television's share of political spending could fall from approximately 75% in 2022 to around 45–50% in 2026. Connected TV, streaming platforms, and YouTube are becoming increasingly significant destinations for political advertising. Sean considers how geographic targeting, audience behavior, and differences in advertising rules may contribute to this shift. OpenAI's reported brand-suitability pilot As AI-powered products develop advertising capabilities, brand suitability is becoming an important topic. Sean discusses Adweek reporting about OpenAI piloting brand-suitability controls with DoubleVerify and Integral Ad Science. He examines why the development resembles the advertising infrastructure established by earlier digital platforms, from initial sponsorship opportunities to suitability controls and measurement. Sean also considers how reporting dashboards and campaign measurement could become part of future AI advertising products. Amazon says AI shopping agents aren't affecting its ad business Autonomous AI shopping agents have attracted significant industry attention. But Amazon's recent comments suggest the technology has not yet had a meaningful effect on its advertising business. Sean argues that the industry may be getting ahead of actual consumer adoption. He discusses how limited usage and restrictions imposed by major platforms could affect the development of AI-powered shopping and purchasing. Meta's AI advertising policies raise questions Meta's reported changes to its advertising terms have prompted concerns about how advertiser content may be used in AI systems. Sean discusses the potential implications for advertisers, including questions about creative assets, data use, and the development of automated advertising tools. He also examines a recurring pattern: despite objections to Meta's policies, advertisers continue to invest heavily in its platforms. Why does advertiser demand remain so strong? Sean considers the role of reach, performance, pricing, and the limited availability of comparable alternatives. What comes next? The episode closes with a look ahead to further advertising earnings analysis, Black Friday, and holiday spending expectations. In this episode: The 2026 U.S. midterm advertising forecastWhy political advertising spending keeps increasingThe role of outside political spendingBroadcast television versus connected TVPolitical advertising on streaming platforms and YouTubeOpenAI's reported brand-suitability testingDoubleVerify and Integral Ad ScienceThe development of AI advertising infrastructureAmazon's comments on AI shopping agentsConsumer adoption of agentic AIPlatform restrictions and controlled digital ecosystemsMeta's AI-related advertising termsAdvertiser concerns about AI and creative assetsWhy advertisers continue spending on MetaThe next phase of advertising earnings and holiday spendingLinks to read:  https://www.axios.com/media-trends-membership/2026/11/03/political-advertising-elections-toss-uphttps://digiday.com/media/they-hold-us-hostage-publishers-furious-over-terms-change-still-cant-quit-facebook/https://www.adnews.com.au/news/amazon-says-ai-shopping-agents-aren-t-denting-its-ad-businessMedia Monitor by Guideline breaks down what's happening in media and advertising—and what it actually means. If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments. And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

  2. Nov 4

    Is the Advertising Market Slowing? What Q3 Earnings Reveal| E47

    Advertising earnings are in. But are the headline numbers telling the full story? In this week's Media Monitor, Sean Wright takes a closer look at Q3 2026 advertising earnings and compares public-company commentary with Guideline's advertising spending data. The central question: Is the advertising market slowing more than the biggest companies' results suggest? Q3 advertising growth: What's beneath the headline numbers? Guideline's data shows approximately 5.5% advertising growth in Q3 2026 across the agency spending activity analyzed. But the picture changes when some of the market's biggest contributors are excluded. Removing Google, Meta, and Amazon brings growth to approximately 3%. Excluding those companies alongside the World Cup and Olympics reduces underlying growth to approximately 1%. Sean explains why these differences may offer a more informative view of the advertising market than headline earnings results alone. Are economic conditions influencing Big Tech earnings? Companies including Netflix, Google, Amazon, and Meta have discussed a variety of factors influencing their advertising performance. Sean argues that a broader slowdown in advertising demand may be contributing to some of the weaker-than-expected results. He also highlights Comcast's reported domestic advertising growth of approximately 0.3%, excluding major sporting events, as another indication of the softer underlying market. Is AI really taking advertising dollars away from Google? Artificial intelligence has become a major part of the conversation surrounding search advertising. But Sean questions how much measurable change has occurred so far. Guideline's data indicates that Google's share of search advertising spending has remained around 89–91% over approximately two and a half years. Despite the growing adoption of AI tools and alternative search experiences, Sean argues that the data does not yet show a major shift in advertising dollars away from Google. Agentic AI versus zero-click search Could AI agents fundamentally change how consumers interact with websites and online shopping platforms? Sean believes the current impact may be overstated. He discusses early adoption, platform restrictions, and the growing likelihood that major companies will maintain controlled ecosystems for AI-powered shopping and browsing. By contrast, zero-click search may represent a more immediate challenge. When users receive answers directly from AI tools without visiting publishers' websites, those publishers may lose valuable traffic and advertising opportunities. Advertising weakness extends beyond the United States Guideline's data indicates that advertising growth has softened in several international markets. Sean discusses negative growth in the United Kingdom, slower growth in Canada, and broadly flat conditions in Australia. These trends suggest that the slowdown may reflect wider economic pressures rather than issues limited to individual companies or advertising platforms. Did World Cup spending come from existing budgets? Major sporting events have historically benefited from dedicated marketing and sponsorship budgets. But Guideline's analysis suggests that some 2026 World Cup advertising may have been funded through existing annual marketing allocations rather than entirely incremental spending. Sean explains why this possibility could help account for the strong advertising growth earlier in the year followed by softer conditions in Q3. He emphasizes that this is an interpretation of spending patterns, rather than a confirmed change in advertisers' budgeting practices. What comes next for Q4? The upcoming holiday shopping season, Black Friday, and political advertising surrounding the U.S. midterm elections could influence Q4 spending. Sean explains why these factors may make it harder to determine the underlying direction of the market until late Q4 or early 2027. In this episode: Q3 2026 advertising earningsGuideline's advertising spending analysisWhy underlying advertising growth may be slowingGoogle, Meta, and Amazon's influence on market growthThe impact of the World Cup and OlympicsNetflix and YouTube advertising performanceGoogle's search advertising market shareAgentic AI and advertisingAI shopping agents and platform restrictionsZero-click search and publisher trafficInternational advertising market trendsAdvertising budget allocationThe possibility of World Cup spending displacing other media investmentBlack Friday and holiday advertising expectationsU.S. midterm election advertisingWhat Q4 may reveal about the advertising market Media Monitor by Guideline breaks down what's happening in the media and advertising industry—and what it actually means. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts for new episodes every Wednesday. If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments. And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

  3. Oct 28

    2026 World Cup Advertising: What Drove $1.5 Billion in U.S. Ad Revenue?|E46

    The 2026 FIFA World Cup generated approximately $1.5 billion in U.S. paid-media advertising revenue. But the biggest story isn't just the number—it's what drove the growth. In this episode of Media Monitor, Sean Wright takes a deep dive into Guideline's latest analysis of advertising activity surrounding the 2026 World Cup. Comparing the tournament with the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, Sean explores how record-breaking viewership, North American scheduling, expanded tournament inventory, and changing advertiser demand contributed to historic growth. World Cup advertising revenue surged more than 300% Guideline's analysis estimates that U.S. paid-media advertising revenue reached approximately $1.5 billion, representing more than 300% growth compared with the 2022 tournament. Canada also experienced substantial growth, with approximately CAD $100 million in advertising revenue—an increase of 227%. Sean explains why these comparisons require context. Unlike the Qatar tournament, which took place in November and December, the 2026 World Cup was held during the summer, with matches scheduled across North American time zones. That made live viewing more accessible to U.S. and Canadian audiences. Linear TV outperformed streaming One of the most surprising findings was the strength of traditional television. Linear TV advertising revenue increased approximately 313%, compared with 222% growth for streaming. Sean explores how time zones, live viewing habits, and the differences between linear and streaming distribution influenced these results. More matches weren't the main reason revenue grew The expanded World Cup featured approximately 50% more matches than the 2022 tournament. But Guideline's analysis found that additional matches accounted for only around 17% of the overall advertising revenue gains. When comparing equivalent tournament matches, revenue increased approximately 160%. This suggests that the expanded schedule contributed to growth, but much of the additional advertising revenue came from stronger performance across comparable matches. Which teams attracted the most advertising revenue? Sean examines how individual teams influenced advertising performance. Argentina and Spain ranked among the leading teams by U.S. advertising revenue per match, while the United States remained a strong performer. Norway emerged as a particularly interesting story, moving from not qualifying in 2022 to ranking eighth in the 2026 analysis. Sean also discusses notable changes involving Croatia, Colombia, Paraguay, and other participating teams. Which advertising categories grew fastest? Advertiser participation expanded across multiple categories. Apparel and accessories recorded approximately 1,000% growth in advertising spend. Pharmaceutical advertising increased approximately 543%, while consumer packaged goods grew approximately 460%. Automotive advertising also grew, although its approximately 159% increase was considerably below the tournament-wide growth rate. These differences reveal how advertiser demand varied across industries. Why scatter-market prices surged Advertising prices increased during the tournament, but not nearly as much as overall revenue. Sean reports that average advertising unit rates increased approximately 75%. Upfront advertising prices grew around 74%, while scatter-market prices increased nearly 700%, with some advertising units exceeding $1 million. The dramatic scatter-market growth suggests that demand exceeded what advertisers and media sellers had initially anticipated. What the World Cup tells us about sports advertising The findings point to a broader lesson about major sporting events. Advertising growth isn't always driven primarily by higher prices or expanded inventory. In the case of the 2026 World Cup, Guideline's research suggests that record-breaking viewership and demand for live sports played particularly important roles. In this episode: 2026 FIFA World Cup advertising revenueWhy U.S. ad revenue exceeded $1.5 billionComparing the 2026 and 2022 World CupsCanada's advertising growthLinear TV versus streaming performanceThe impact of North American time zonesHow expanded tournament inventory affected revenueRevenue growth across comparable matchesTeam-by-team advertising performanceArgentina, Spain, the United States, and NorwayApparel and accessories advertising growthPharmaceutical and CPG advertising trendsAutomotive advertising performanceUpfront versus scatter-market pricingWhy scatter advertising prices increased nearly 700%What the findings mean for sports advertisersMedia Monitor by Guideline breaks down what's happening in the media and advertising industry—and what it actually means. If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments. And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

  4. Oct 21

    Ghost Viewers: Understanding Streaming Audience Behavior | Justin Fromm, Samsung Ads|E45

    Streaming audiences are constantly moving. But where do they go—and what brings them back? In this episode of Media Monitor, Sean Wright welcomes Justin Fromm, Head of Industry Insights at Samsung Ads, for a data-driven conversation about one of the most interesting developments in connected TV: ghost viewers. As streaming continues to evolve, understanding how audiences move between platforms has become increasingly important for media companies, advertisers, and marketers. Samsung Ads' research offers a closer look at those behaviors and the opportunities they create for more informed advertising strategies. What are ghost viewers? Ghost viewers are people who engage with a streaming app for particular content and then stop returning once their viewing interests shift. Importantly, this doesn't necessarily mean they've canceled their subscription. A viewer may remain subscribed to a service while spending little or no time watching it. Justin explains how Samsung Ads uses television-level app activity data to better understand these viewing patterns, including when audiences enter and leave streaming environments. How live sports influence streaming behavior Live sports remain a powerful way to attract streaming audiences. Samsung Ads examined app activity during the 2024–25 and 2025–26 NFL seasons and found that the apps studied experienced approximately 25% growth in users during the football season. Monthly viewing time per user also increased by approximately 60%. Following the season, the research observed a 34% decline in app users and a 63% decline in monthly viewing time per user. Justin explains how these shifts reflect the seasonal nature of sports viewing and why understanding audience engagement beyond major events is important. The analysis also found that viewers who were new to these apps during NFL season exhibited ghost-viewing behavior at approximately twice the rate of established users. What original streaming content reveals Samsung Ads also studied ten of the most-watched streaming originals from the first half of 2026. The research found that even highly successful original programming attracted proportionally fewer new app users than NFL coverage. It also revealed that viewers who arrived for a particular original show exhibited ghost-viewing behavior at five times the rate of viewers already using the app before the show's release. Sean and Justin discuss what these findings reveal about content-driven viewing habits, binge releases, weekly programming, and the importance of understanding engagement over time. Why FAST channels matter Free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) offers a different type of viewing experience. Rather than selecting individual programs, viewers can tune into familiar channels and enjoy continuous programming. Justin explains how this experience can support consistent engagement, particularly for viewers looking for convenient, familiar content. Samsung Ads' research found that FAST services and virtual multichannel TV providers performed particularly well in measures of long-term audience loyalty. What this means for advertisers Understanding streaming audiences requires looking beyond individual apps and isolated viewing moments. As viewers move between platforms, advertisers need better visibility into audience behavior, reach, frequency, and duplication. Justin shares how connected-TV insights can help brands and media buyers make more informed decisions about where and how to reach their audiences. In this episode: What ghost viewers are and how Samsung Ads defines themHow streaming behavior differs from traditional televisionThe relationship between content discovery and engagementWhat NFL viewing reveals about streaming audiencesSamsung Ads' research on sports-driven app usageWhy viewing patterns shift after major sporting eventsHow original programming influences app engagementBinge releases versus weekly programmingUnderstanding audience retention and loyaltyThe role of FAST channels in connected TVWhy viewers value familiar, continuous programmingThe changing role of the television in the homeMeasuring audiences across streaming platformsReach, frequency, and audience duplicationHow data can inform more effective CTV advertising strategiesAbout the guest Justin Fromm is Head of Industry Insights at Samsung Ads. His experience spans audience research, consumer behavior, streaming, and media strategy, with previous roles across organizations including WPP, ABC, Hulu, and LG. Media Monitor by Guideline breaks down what's happening in the media and advertising industry—and what it actually means. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts for new episodes every Wednesday. If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments. And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

  5. Oct 14

    Amazon's Emmys Bet, Apple's Ad Changes & the Future of Retail Media|E44

    What's changing in advertising—and what do the numbers tell us? In his first solo episode of Media Monitor, Sean Wright takes the microphone to examine four major industry developments shaping advertising, media buying, streaming, and retail media. With Kelly stepping away from the show, Sean introduces a new chapter for Media Monitor, with upcoming guest interviews, research-driven episodes, and regular industry headline discussions. Amazon's $15 million Emmys bet Amazon has reportedly secured streaming rights to the Emmy Awards for approximately $15 million annually, marking a departure from the ceremony's traditional broadcast television rotation. But what makes an awards show worth that investment? Sean examines Guideline's historical advertising data, which shows that Emmy telecasts generated roughly $30–40 million annually before COVID, compared with approximately $22 million in recent years. The opportunity extends beyond advertising during the ceremony itself. Red-carpet coverage, sponsorships, social content, and related programming can create additional revenue opportunities. Amazon could also connect the event to its wider advertising, commerce, and streaming ecosystem. More importantly, live awards shows offer something increasingly difficult to find: millions of viewers gathering around the same content at the same time. Advertising Week: AI, measurement, and uncertainty Sean reviews several themes emerging from Advertising Week in New York. Measurement and return on investment are becoming increasingly prominent in an industry event historically associated with creativity. AI continues to dominate conversations, but advertisers and agencies remain divided over its practical applications, its effect on jobs, and the changes it could bring to the industry. Consolidation, mergers, acquisitions, and uncertainty across agencies and media companies add another layer of complexity. Apple's Safari changes and the open web Apple has introduced software changes that Sean says are affecting real-time bidding and programmatic advertising on Safari, including activity involving The Trade Desk. The full implications remain unclear. At the time of recording, Sean estimates that only about 8% of users had adopted the relevant software update, meaning the broader effects on advertising access and spending were still emerging. Could these changes create another significant disruption for the open advertising ecosystem? Sean explains why the industry needs to watch adoption and the resulting impact before drawing conclusions. Is retail media returning to its roots? Retail media has experienced sustained growth of approximately 20–25% annually, but its business model is becoming more complicated. Amazon and Walmart account for a substantial portion of retail media activity, while newer networks are looking for ways to expand. One strategy has been to sell advertising inventory beyond retailers' own websites and apps. But off-site advertising can come with much lower margins. Sean discusses an opinion piece in The Drum examining why retail media networks may benefit from refocusing on their core advantage: helping consumers discover and purchase products within retail environments. The margin differences are striking. On-site product advertising can reportedly achieve profitability as high as 80%, while off-site advertising may deliver only 10–20%. Guideline's own data shows retail media product-search advertising growing approximately 18%, suggesting the original retail media model remains a meaningful source of growth. In this episode: Why Amazon wants the Emmy AwardsThe economics of streaming live eventsAdvertising revenue versus media rights costsRed-carpet sponsorship and shoulder programmingThe value of appointment viewingAdvertising Week's biggest industry themesAI adoption and advertising measurementApple's Safari and programmatic advertisingPotential implications for The Trade DeskRetail media's 20–25% growthAmazon and Walmart's market concentrationOn-site versus off-site retail advertisingRetail media margins and profitabilityWhy product-search advertising remains importantWhat's next for Media MonitorMedia Monitor explores the data, business decisions, and market forces shaping advertising and media. If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments. And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

  6. Oct 7

    Is Social Media Becoming Social Again? |E43

    Social media was originally supposed to connect people. Then came feeds, algorithms, creators, advertising, endless scrolling and platforms designed to keep us consuming. Could the next era of social media move back toward where it started? In this episode of Media Monitor, Kelly Sweeney and Sean Wright step away from the usual spend and pricing reports to examine the changing state of social media—and what today's emerging trends might tell us about where it goes next. The stakes for advertisers are enormous. Sean estimates that Meta alone represents roughly 25% of global advertising spend, illustrating just how central social platforms have become to the advertising economy. But the products themselves are changing. Snapchat has introduced Snapchat Plans, designed to help users organize real-world events with friends. Kelly sees it as part of a broader post-pandemic desire to move beyond purely digital interaction and reconnect in person. At the same time, some users appear increasingly fatigued by algorithmically generated feeds. Sean discusses efforts to revive an older Twitter-style experience centered around real-time posts from real people, while MySpace's current owners are exploring what a comeback could look like with a more anti-algorithmic approach. Even physical media is part of the conversation. From W Magazine launching a youth-focused print publication to renewed interest in vinyl records and resistance to all-digital video games, Kelly and Sean see signs that people still value things they can physically own, share and experience together. Then there's Reddit. Its forum-like structure feels almost old-school compared with today's heavily algorithmic social feeds. Yet both its users and advertising business are growing. Sean points to Guideline data showing Reddit ad spend growth of roughly 52%, alongside the platform's emphasis on communities and human interaction. Smaller platforms may matter too. Sean highlights Spill, a social platform founded by former Twitter employees and focused on communities including people of color and LGBTQ users. Guideline's data shows approximately 140% ad spend growth on the platform. The individual examples differ, but Kelly and Sean see a common thread: community and connection. Neither expects people to abandon their phones or social media entirely. Instead, the next generation of platforms may have to rethink how technology facilitates genuine communities without relying entirely on endless algorithmic consumption. The episode also marks an important moment for Media Monitor. Kelly announces that she will be stepping away from the podcast and passing the torch. Sean reflects on their time together and confirms that Media Monitor will continue, with interviews and other episodes planned while the team prepares for the show's next co-host. In this episode: • Why social media matters so much to global advertising • Meta's enormous share of advertising spend • The evolution from social connection to algorithmic consumption • Snapchat Plans and real-world events • Why users may be experiencing algorithm fatigue • The potential return of a Twitter-style experience • Why physical media is making a comeback • W Youth and renewed interest in print • Vinyl, video games and the value of ownership • Reddit's resurgence • Guideline's Reddit advertising data • Why platforms are emphasizing human users • MySpace's possible comeback • What an anti-algorithm social network could look like • Regulation of addictive algorithms • The rise of smaller community-focused platforms • Spill's advertising growth • Why younger generations choose different platforms • Community as the future of social media • Kelly's Media Monitor announcement • What's next for the podcast Follow and subscribe to Media Monitor wherever you get your podcasts for a new episode every Wednesday. If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments. And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

  7. Sep 30

    AI, Ad Spend & the Amazon–OpenAI Deal: What Advertisers Should Watch| E42

    AI is moving faster. Advertising tools are getting smarter. Brands can do more themselves than ever before. So why aren't agencies disappearing? Kelly Sweeney and Sean Wright are back with a Media Monitor Grab Bag, breaking down three advertising headlines that reveal where the market may be heading next. AI isn't making agencies obsolete The conversation starts with the growing debate around AI, automation and in-housing. Programmatic platforms and self-service advertising tools have made buying media far more accessible. AI can process information faster, generate reports and automate work that once required significant manual effort. But that doesn't necessarily mean brands want to do everything themselves. Recent industry moves suggest brands still see value in agency and holding-company expertise. Kelly and Sean discuss why the growing complexity of advertising may actually reinforce the role agencies play—particularly when marketing teams would rather focus on customers, creative strategy and brand building than the daily mechanics of media execution. AI can produce information faster. That doesn't always mean it makes the decisions easier. Is 12.3% U.S. ad growth realistic? Next, Kelly and Sean turn to IAB's revised 2026 U.S. advertising spend forecast, which was raised from 9.5% growth to 12.3% year over year following a strong first half. Sean sees reasons for caution. Large advertising businesses posted significant growth during the first half of the year, while major sporting events and other tentpoles helped drive spending. But underneath those headline numbers, Sean sees a different pattern. Monthly growth has been slowing, and when major tentpole events are stripped out, the underlying advertising growth visible in Guideline's data is considerably lower. That raises a central question: Are forecasts giving too much weight to an exceptional first half while underestimating the economic pressure building in the second half? Kelly and Sean discuss consumer spending, rising costs, advertising's lag behind economic changes and why the absence of another comparable tentpole later in the year could matter. Amazon opens another route into AI advertising Finally, they discuss Amazon's announced partnership with OpenAI, which would allow select U.S. advertisers to run ads in ChatGPT through Amazon's advertising technology. Many implementation details remain unclear, but Sean sees the announcement as another indication of Amazon's larger advertising ambitions. Rather than operating solely as the owner of its own media and advertising inventory, Amazon increasingly appears interested in serving as infrastructure through which advertisers can reach inventory elsewhere. The discussion covers what that could mean for Amazon DSP, OpenAI and the emerging business model surrounding advertising inside AI products. Plus: Sean accidentally invents his next podcast, Just Angry, Kelly explains why sometimes the smartest AI strategy is knowing when not to build something yourself, and the hosts share details about the new Media Monitor website. In this episode: • AI's impact on agencies and holding companies • Why in-housing hasn't eliminated agency relationships • Build vs. buy decisions in the AI era • Why faster AI output can create more work • The continued role of agency expertise • IAB's revised 2026 U.S. ad spend forecast • Why 12.3% growth may be difficult to sustain • The impact of the Olympics, World Cup and other tentpoles • What Guideline's underlying ad-spend data shows • Consumer spending as an indicator for advertising • Economic pressure heading into the rest of 2026 • Amazon's advertising partnership with OpenAI • How Amazon DSP continues to expand • What advertising inside ChatGPT could look like • The future relationship between AI platforms and ad tech Visit Media Monitor by Guideline for the latest episodes, research and related content. If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments. And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

  8. Sep 23

    Can the Right Sports Moment Make an Ad Twice as Memorable? | Gina Waldhorn| E41

    A touchdown with four minutes left in a close game isn't worth the same thing as a touchdown during a blowout. So why should advertisers buy those moments the same way? In this episode of Media Monitor, Kelly Sweeney and Sean Wright are joined by Gina Waldhorn, SVP of Marketing and Advertising at Genius Sports, for a conversation about how real-time data, AI, and fan behavior are changing the economics of live sports advertising. The conversation starts with the NFL. According to Guideline's data, NFL advertising revenue reached a record $5.9 billion last season, up 7% year over year. Streaming also accounted for roughly 13% of total NFL ad revenue, another record for the league. But Gina introduces a different way of thinking about the value of those audiences: not every game—and not every moment within a game—is equally valuable. Genius Sports tracks live action across hundreds of venues and uses its Genius IQ technology to analyze what is happening during games in real time. Its Moment Engine combines that understanding of the game with fan data to identify not only what is happening, but which fans are experiencing it and how advertising can respond. A last-minute touchdown during a close game, for example, carries a very different level of intensity than another score during a blowout. That difference matters to advertisers. Gina discusses research conducted with MediaScience that found ads appearing immediately after high-intensity moments—particularly surprising moments—generated 2X greater unaided brand recall. That creates an opportunity to move beyond simply buying “NFL fans” or an entire season and toward targeting the moments when attention and emotion are at their highest. Gina explains how Genius Moments can use programmatic deal IDs to activate or deactivate advertising based on what is happening in a game, creating what she describes as a form of mindset targeting. The conversation also looks at how deeply Genius Sports is embedded in the sports ecosystem, from official live data and sports betting feeds to international NFL advertising inventory and alternative broadcasts. Then there is AI. Gina explains that AI has been fundamental to Genius Sports' technology long before the current AI boom. But she also sees an interesting paradox: as AI makes more of the world predictable, the unpredictability of live sports may become even more valuable. Sports fans know the comeback, upset, injury, game-winning shot or unbelievable play is coming. They just don't know when. That unpredictability creates an opportunity for technology to react in real time without eliminating the thing that makes sports compelling in the first place. Finally, Kelly, Sean and Gina look toward the future of sports viewing. Genius Sports research found 84% of fans use a second screen while watching a live broadcast. Fans are texting, checking fantasy teams, shopping, betting and interacting with other content while the game continues. Could AI eventually combine those experiences into personalized broadcasts—with fantasy results, social conversations, commerce, betting and other information integrated directly into each fan's viewing experience? That may be where sports media is heading next. In this episode: • NFL advertising revenue reaching $5.9B • Streaming's growing share of NFL advertising • Gina Waldhorn's role at Genius Sports • How Genius Sports captures live game data • What the Genius Moments engine does • Connecting real-time sports events with fan behavior • Why not every touchdown has the same advertising value • “Mindset targeting” in sports advertising • Why high-intensity moments can improve brand recall • The 2X unaided brand recall finding • Buying sports through programmatic deal IDs • Genius Sports' relationship with the NFL • Betting data and BetVision • Alternative broadcasts and augmented viewing • Why comeback stories are valuable to brands • AI's role in live sports • The “unpredictability premium” of sports • Why 84% of fans use a second screen • Fantasy, texting, shopping and betting during games • Personalized sports broadcasts • How Taylor Swift fandom translated into NFL spending • What sports advertising could look like in three to five years Guest Info: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ginawaldhorn/ If you’d like access to the benchmark report or want to suggest a topic for the next part of the programmatic series, reach out to press@guideline.ai. If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to follow or subscribe so you don’t miss future conversations on advertising, media strategy, and cultural marketing moments. And if you’re listening on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, a quick rating or review helps more people discover the show.

About

Media Monitor is a data-led podcast unpacking what’s really happening across advertising, media, and consumer behavior—and what it means next. Hosted by Sean Wright and Kelly Sweeney from Guideline.ai, the show breaks down the signals behind the headlines: ad spend shifts, market trends, economic pressure points, and emerging opportunities shaping the media ecosystem. Each episode translates complex data into clear insight, helping brands, agencies, and decision-makers cut through noise, reduce uncertainty, and make smarter strategic calls. If media is changing faster than ever, Media Monitor helps you understand why, how, and what to watch next.