Closing Price — Luxury Equities & Alternative Asset Signals

ALT/FNDATA
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Closing Price reads the signal where luxury equities meet the alternative-asset markets underneath them. Each market day, with a deeper week-in-review every Friday, host Sharon Obuobi tracks the listed companies behind the world's great luxury brands and auction houses — LVMH, Hermès, Richemont, Ferrari, and the major houses — against ALT/FNDATA's proprietary resale and auction data across watches, jewelry, fine art, handbags, and collector cars. The edge is the divergence between where the stocks trade and where end-demand actually sits. For investors and analysts who want the demand behind the price, not just the ticker. Learn more and access the data at www.altfndata.com

  1. 16h ago

    Same Split, New Quarter: the Luxury Equities Stay Soft, Watches of Switzerland Drops Its £3B Goal, and the Saleroom Keeps Setting Records

    July 1: Same Split, New Quarter: the Luxury Equities Stay Soft, Watches of Switzerland Drops Its £3B Goal, and the Saleroom Keeps Setting RecordsToday's signal: continuity. The second half opened where the first closed, the listed luxury names under pressure while the demand data pointed the other way. This week the divergence got a corporate stamp: Watches of Switzerland is abandoning its goal to more than double sales by 2028 because the market has deteriorated, even as Christie's set seven world records in London and doubled a jewelry estimate in Paris. The stores are trimming forecasts; the auction rooms are breaking records. ALT/FNDATA- Book a Data Sandbox demo: https://altfndata.com/book- Market reports: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260701-r- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260701-p A Corporate Stamp on the Divergence- Watches of Switzerland, one of the world's biggest Rolex sellers, is stepping back from its 2028 target to more than double sales past 3 billion pounds, citing a deteriorated market. The listed side of luxury conceding the retail slowdown in its own words.- Meanwhile the saleroom set records: Christie's Classic Week evening sales ~64 million dollars and 7 world auction records (a ~22 million dollar Titian, an artist record), after last week's Paris jewels doubled their estimate.- The twist: WoS shares actually rose almost 4 percent on the reset, investors seemingly preferring an honest plan to an impossible one. The Tape (Wednesday close)- Macro (broad market gave back a little): Nasdaq 26,040 (-0.66%), S&P 500 7,483 (-0.22%), Dow 52,305 (flat), gold 4,045 (+0.57%), WTI oil 68.09 (-2.77%), US 10-year 4.48%, dollar index 101.4.- European luxury (mixed to soft): Watches of Switzerland 729.5p (+3.77%), Brunello Cucinelli 83.36 EUR (+0.94%), Swatch 198.35 CHF (+0.38%), Hermès 1,595.0 EUR (-0.19%), Kering 245.75 EUR (-0.63%), LVMH 481.00 EUR (-0.64%), Richemont 182.70 CHF (-2.06%), Burberry 1,057.0p (-3.47%).- US-listed: Birkenstock 44.03 (+1.43%), Canada Goose 9.55 (+1.06%), Tapestry 143.99 (-1.75%), Capri 18.54 (-2.42%), Movado 37.97 (-3.68%). The Divergence- The equity tape trades on macro and flows; the demand it represents shows up in the saleroom. The test: if auction prices hold, the beaten-down luxury stocks are simply too cheap and recover; if they fall, the stock weakness and WoS's climb-down were the early warning. Tonight, the auction rooms are still winning the argument. Also from ALT/FNDATA:- Open Bid — tomorrow

    5 min

  2. 1d ago

    As H1 Ends, the Two Luxury Markets Finish in Opposite Places; Kering Slides While Christie's Paris Jewels Double Their Estimate

    June 30: As H1 Ends, the Two Luxury Markets Finish in Opposite Places; Kering Slides While Christie's Paris Jewels Double Their EstimateTonight, the first half of the year closes with the two markets we track in opposite places. The listed luxury names limped to the line, with another soft session led by Kering, while the saleroom ended the half at its highs, Christie's Paris jewels doubling their estimate today after London's biggest auction haul in a decade last week. ALT/FNDATA- Book a Data Sandbox demo: https://altfndata.com/book- Market reports: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260630-r- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260630-p A Half That Ends in Two Places- Listed luxury closed the first half deep in the red. On a day the broad market rose (Nasdaq +1.5%, S&P +0.8%), the European luxury complex sold off hard, led by Kering down almost 7 percent, with LVMH, Richemont, Swatch, Burberry and Hermès all lower.- The saleroom closed the half at records: Christie's Paris jewelry sale totaled 10.5 million euros, double its estimate, after London delivered its biggest summer haul in a decade last week. A Notable Quarter-End- Oil headed for a quarterly drop of around 20 percent, the yen touched a 40-year low against the dollar, and Iran stirred fresh tension with talk of controlling the Strait of Hormuz, even as the broad market took it in stride. The Divergence- The listed luxury market and the real one ended the half apart. The equity tape trades on macro and flows; the demand it represents shows up in the saleroom, and the saleroom is at its highs.- The test into H2: if auction prices stay at these highs, the beaten-down luxury stocks are simply too cheap and recover; if auction prices fall, the stock selloff was the early warning of weaker demand. Tonight, with the saleroom at its highs, the demand side is winning. The Board (Tuesday close)- European luxury: Brunello Cucinelli 82.60 EUR (+0.83%), Watches of Switzerland 709.0p (+0.21%), Hermès 1,598.0 EUR (-1.08%), LVMH 484.10 EUR (-1.67%), Richemont 186.55 CHF (-1.76%), Swatch 197.60 CHF (-2.18%), Burberry 1,062.0p (-4.19%), Kering 247.30 EUR (-6.91%).- US-listed: Tapestry 146.38 (+0.26%), Movado 39.31 (-0.68%), Canada Goose 9.51 (-1.65%), Birkenstock 43.03 (-3.13%), Capri 18.57 (-4.18%).- Macro (today's move vs yesterday's close): Nasdaq 26,214 (+1.5%), S&P 500 7,499 (+0.8%), Dow 52,319 (+0.3%), gold 4,022 (-0.2%), WTI oil 70.03 (-0.6%), US 10-year 4.42%, dollar index 101.2 (flat). Also from ALT/FNDATA:- Open Bid — tomorrow

    5 min

  3. 2d ago

    On a Risk-On Day, LVMH, Hermès and Kering Slipped While the Nasdaq Jumped; the Demand Signal Is in the Resale Saleroom with New Highs

    June 29: On a Risk-On Day, LVMH, Hermès and Kering Slipped While the Nasdaq Jumped; the Demand Signal Is in the Resale Saleroom with New HighsThe two forces that drove last week's luxury selloff both eased, the US and Iran stepped back and the AI trade roared back, and the broad market rallied nearly 2 percent. Yet the luxury mega-caps slipped. Luxury was never an AI trade, so neither last week's tech-led selloff nor today's tech-led bounce measured luxury demand. The one thing that did, the saleroom, set fresh records today. ALT/FNDATA- Book a Data Sandbox demo: https://altfndata.com/book- Market reports: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260629-r- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260629-p Luxury Sat Out the Rally- The macro turned risk-on: the Nasdaq closed up 1.8 percent on the AI and chip rebound, gold fell, oil firmed, the dollar slipped, with US-Iran tension easing.- But the luxury giants lagged. LVMH closed down 0.7 percent, Hermès down two-thirds of a percent, Kering down half a percent, even as the broad market surged. Richemont (+1.7%), Brunello and Burberry were the exceptions. The Demand Floor Made New Records- While the equity tape chased the AI rebound, the saleroom printed records. London's summer auctions delivered the city's biggest haul in a decade, led by a 63.9 million dollar Modigliani; Christie's set a world record for an online handbag sale in Paris.- Real luxury demand shows up at auction, and it made new highs on the very day the listed names slipped. The Divergence- Today was not the equities converging up toward demand. The broad market rallied on tech, the luxury mega-caps lagged, and the resale market made records. The equity tape trades on macro and sector flows; the demand it represents shows up in the saleroom.- The test is unchanged: watch the resale series. If it holds at these highs, last week's selloff was macro and the mega-caps catch up. If it rolls over, that is the warning. The Board (Monday close)- European luxury: Richemont 189.90 CHF (+1.66%), Brunello Cucinelli 82.58 EUR (+1.77%), Burberry 1,095.0p (+1.11%), Swatch 202.0 CHF (-0.30%), Kering 265.65 EUR (-0.52%), Hermès 1,615.5 EUR (-0.65%), LVMH 492.30 EUR (-0.70%), Watches of Switzerland 703.0p (-0.71%).- US-listed: Movado 39.42 (+3.49%), Canada Goose 9.45 (+1.83%), Capri 19.00 (+0.74%), Tapestry 146.56 (+0.38%), Birkenstock 43.41 (-2.49%).- Macro: Nasdaq 25,820 (+1.82%), S&P 500 7,440 (+1.13%), Dow 52,183 (+0.50%), gold 4,032 (-1.56%), WTI oil 70.48 (+1.81%), US 10-year 4.37%, dollar index 101.1 (-0.26%). Also from ALT/FNDATA:- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET- Art Market — tomorrow (Tuesday), the week in the art world

    5 min

  4. 5d ago

    5 Days, 1 Lesson: the Selloff Was Macro, Not Demand; the Watch Retailers Turn; Pandora's Standout Run; the AI Rout May Be Ending

    June 26: Five Days, One Lesson: the Selloff Was Macro, Not Demand; the Watch Retailers Turn; Pandora's Standout Run; the AI Rout May Be EndingThis was the week our central thesis got stress-tested, and it held: the luxury equities went on a violent round trip, sold off hard then clawed most of it back, while the resale market that actually measures demand never moved from its highs. ALT/FNDATA- Book a Sandbox demo: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260626- Market reports: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260626-r- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260626-p The week in review:- A round trip. Monday and Tuesday, luxury equities were dumped with everything else, as a deepening AI-driven tech selloff dragged the Nasdaq lower, gold fell more than 6 percent on the week, and oil collapsed back below 70 dollars. The European luxury complex fell as much as 6 percent at its worst.- The decoupling. On Wednesday, luxury rallied even as the broad market kept falling, the first sign the de-rating had found a floor. On Thursday the recovery broadened to the last holdouts, the listed watch retailers, which had slid for three straight sessions before finally turning.- Standout and laggard. Pandora was the week's clear winner, climbing almost every session to fresh highs. Watches of Switzerland and Swatch were the laggards, under pressure most of the week before stabilizing.- The constant. The resale market never flinched. It held flat at its cycle highs from Monday to Friday, and the saleroom kept producing trophies (a $63.9M Modigliani in London this week). The equities were pricing macro, rates, risk, and a tech-led liquidation, not a demand problem.- The tell for next week. After Thursday's close, blowout Micron earnings sparked a ~400 billion dollar AI-chip rally, the first hint the rout that drove all this may be ending. Watch the resale series: it has been right all week. Where it stands (latest close, Thursday June 25):- European luxury: LVMH 494.40 euros, Hermès 1,613.50 euros, Richemont 186.35 Swiss francs, Kering 267.90 euros, Swatch 206.20 Swiss francs, Watches of Switzerland 708.0 pence, Pandora 709.00 Danish kroner (the week's standout).- Friday's session was quiet and mixed into the open. Also from ALT/FNDATA:- Open Bid returns Monday at 6 AM ET

    5 min

  5. 6d ago

    European Luxury Rises as Tech Falls a Fourth Day; Watches of Switzerland Snaps a 3-Day Slide; the Resale Anchor Holds

    June 25: European Luxury Rises as Tech Falls a Fourth Day; Watches of Switzerland Snaps a 3-Day Slide; the Resale Anchor HoldsLast night we asked whether the luxury bounce would broaden to the listed watch retailers and hold. Tonight: it did. For a second straight session, European luxury rose even as the broad market fell again, and the watch retailers, down three days running, finally turned. The floor we flagged is looking real, exactly as our resale data implied. ALT/FNDATA- Book a Sandbox demo: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260625- Market reports: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260625-r- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260625-p The signal:- A thesis confirmed. Monday and Tuesday, luxury equities were oversold on the macro. Yesterday they bounced narrowly; today the bounce broadened to the last holdouts, the watch names. The de-rating was about rates and risk, not demand.- The macro stayed under pressure into the US close (Nasdaq down 2.5 percent, a fourth day of the AI selloff; gold down ~3 percent; oil down ~5 percent), yet European luxury decoupled upward again, with the watch names turning: Swatch +1.6 percent, Watches of Switzerland +0.6 percent (first up day in four).- The tell for tomorrow: after the close, Micron's blowout earnings ignited a ~400 billion dollar AI-chip rally across Asia, the first sign the week's tech rout may be ending. If the macro headwind lifts, the luxury floor only firms.- The resale market never moved. Through four whipsaw sessions it has sat at cycle highs. The equities were pricing rates and a tech liquidation, not a demand problem, and are now converging back toward the demand our data measures. The test flips from "will the bounce broaden?" to "does it stick?" The board (today's close):- European luxury: LVMH 494.40 euros (+0.3%), Hermès 1,613.50 euros (-0.9%), Richemont 186.35 Swiss francs (+0.5%), Kering 267.90 euros (+1.0%), Brunello Cucinelli 81.14 euros (-1.5%), Burberry 1,083.0 pence (+1.2%), Swatch 206.20 Swiss francs (+1.6%), Watches of Switzerland 708.0 pence (+0.6%), Pandora 709.00 Danish kroner (+3.0%).- US-listed: Tapestry 146.00 dollars (-3.0%), Capri 18.86 dollars (-1.5%), Signet 83.63 dollars (-1.5%), Movado 38.09 dollars (-1.6%), Ferrari 352.20 dollars (+2.1%).- Macro: Nasdaq down 2.6 percent, S&P 500 down 0.8 percent, gold about 4,041 dollars an ounce (down 3.4 percent), WTI crude 71.47 dollars (down 4.5 percent), the dollar index 101.4 (up 0.4 percent), US 10-year yield about 4.4 percent. Also from ALT/FNDATA:- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET

    5 min

  6. Jun 25

    The Luxury De-Rate Finds a Floor; Richemont +4% and Pandora +6% as Tech Routs Again; Watch Retailers the Lone Holdout

    June 24: The Luxury De-Rate Finds a Floor; Richemont +4% and Pandora +6% as Tech Routs Again; Watch Retailers the Lone HoldoutAfter two days of falling with the macro, the luxury equities decoupled and rallied, even as the tech selloff deepened and gold and oil cratered. The first sign the de-rating is finding a floor, which fits what our resale data has said all along: the selling was about rates and risk, not demand. The lone holdout was the listed watch retailers, down a third straight day. ALT/FNDATA- Book a Sandbox demo: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260624- Market reports: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260624-r- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260624-p The signal:- The macro stayed ugly: the Nasdaq fell another 3.4 percent on deepening AI-spending fears, gold broke below 4,100 dollars, and oil collapsed almost 9 percent under 70 dollars. Yet European luxury went the other way, with Richemont up 4 percent, Pandora up almost 6 percent, and LVMH, Hermès, and Kering each up 1 to 2 percent.- The exception: the listed watch retailers kept sliding. Watches of Switzerland fell for a third straight session, with Swatch, Signet, and Movado all lower. The watch names are being singled out even on an up day for luxury.- The resale market has not moved. Through three volatile sessions, the top of our database has sat at its cycle highs: a watch at 10.8 million dollars, a jewel at about 25.6 million, a Birkin near half a million, plus a recent Phillips New York sale that was the highest-grossing watch auction in US history.- The test: watch whether the bounce broadens to the watch retailers and holds, and whether the resale series stays firm. If resale holds, the floor is real and the de-rating was a macro story. If resale rolls over, the watch retailers were the early warning and the bounce is a trap. The board (today's close):- European luxury: LVMH 493.00 euros (up 1.9 percent), Hermès 1,629.00 euros (up 1.5 percent), Richemont 185.50 Swiss francs (up 4.0 percent), Kering 265.35 euros (up 1.0 percent), Brunello Cucinelli 82.42 euros (up 0.7 percent), Burberry 1,085.0 pence (down 1.6 percent), Swatch 202.90 Swiss francs (down 0.7 percent), Watches of Switzerland 707.5 pence (down 1.7 percent), Pandora 688.60 Danish kroner (up 5.6 percent).- US-listed: Tapestry 149.75 dollars (up 0.4 percent), Capri 19.13 dollars (down 1.7 percent), Signet 85.09 dollars (down 1.9 percent), Movado 37.99 dollars (down 3.2 percent), Ferrari 348.75 dollars (up 0.1 percent).- Macro: Nasdaq down 3.4 percent, S&P 500 down 2.0 percent, gold about 4,014 dollars an ounce (down 5.0 percent, below 4,100), WTI crude 69.87 dollars (down 8.8 percent, below 70), US 10-year yield about 4.4 percent, the dollar index near a one-year high. Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice. Also from ALT/FNDATA:- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET

    5 min

  7. Jun 23

    Watch and Jewelry Retailers Sink on a Fed-Hike Scare; the Resale Market Holds at Its Highs; Tapestry +5% as Capri −6%

    June 23: Watch and Jewelry Retailers Sink on a Fed-Hike Scare; the Resale Market Holds at Its Highs; Tapestry +5% as Capri −6%Today's signal: the listed watch and jewelry retailers were among the hardest hit in a broad, macro-driven selloff, yet the resale market for the very same goods sits at its cycle highs. ALT/FNDATA- Book a Data Sandbox demo: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260623- Market reports: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260623-r- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260623-p The signal:- A hawkish repricing drove everything down but the dollar. Bank of America and Deutsche Bank both said they now expect a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, sending the dollar to a one-year high and the 10-year yield toward 4.5 percent. Nasdaq fell about 4 percent, gold dropped more than 5 percent, oil nearly 5 percent.- The listed watch and jewelry retailers took the brunt: Watches of Switzerland down about 4 percent, Swatch about 2 percent, Signet nearly 4 percent. The broad European houses were mixed (LVMH up about 0.5 percent, Richemont down 2.2 percent, Burberry down nearly 6 percent), and the accessible US names split sharply: Tapestry up almost 5 percent while Capri fell almost 6 percent on the same day. That dispersion is the signature of positioning and flows, not a read on luxury demand.- The resale market did not flinch. The most recent watch cycle set records (a 75.8 million dollar Phillips New York sale, the highest-grossing watch auction in US history), and the top lots in our database continue to clear seven and eight figures.- The testable question: watch the resale series. If resale prices for watches and jewelry roll over, the retailers' weakness is an early demand warning. As long as resale holds, a day like today is a rates story, not a demand story. The board (today's close):- European luxury: Hermès 1,605.00 euros (down 0.9 percent), LVMH 483.70 euros (up 0.5 percent), Richemont 178.35 Swiss francs (down 2.2 percent), Kering 262.80 euros (down 1.2 percent), Burberry 1,070.0 pence (down 5.7 percent), Brunello Cucinelli 82.34 euros (down 2.8 percent), Swatch 204.30 Swiss francs (down 1.9 percent), Watches of Switzerland 704.0 pence (down 4.1 percent), Pandora 652.00 Danish kroner (up 1.9 percent).- US-listed: Tapestry 150.53 dollars (up 4.9 percent), Capri 19.15 dollars (down 5.8 percent), Signet 84.92 dollars (down 3.8 percent), Movado 38.69 dollars (up 0.6 percent), Ferrari 344.87 dollars (down 4.8 percent).- Macro: Nasdaq down 4.1 percent, S&P 500 down 2.5 percent, gold about 4,129 dollars an ounce (down 5.3 percent), WTI crude 73.05 dollars (down 4.9 percent), the dollar index near a one-year high at 101.4 (up 1.3 percent), US 10-year yield about 4.5 percent. Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice. Also from ALT/FNDATA:- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET

    5 min

  8. Jun 23

    European Luxury Sells Off; Hermès Falls 6% and LVMH 3.6%; Auction Demand Holds at the Highs

    June 22: European Luxury Sells Off; Hermès Falls 6% and LVMH 3.6%; Auction Demand Holds at the HighsToday's signal: a sharp divergence. The broad US market rallied on progress in the US and Iran peace talks, but the listed luxury names fell hard, with Hermès down almost 6 percent and LVMH off more than 3 percent. The driver was macro, a dollar at a one-year high and higher yields, not demand. Underneath those brands, our auction data still shows top-end demand at its highs. ALT/FNDATA- Book a Data Sandbox demo: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260622- Market reports: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260622-r- Podcast episodes: https://altfndata.com/go/cp-260622-p The signal:- European luxury equities sold off even as risk assets rose, a rate-and-currency move rather than a demand move. The more accessible US-listed names (Tapestry, Movado) rose, consistent with a rotation read.- Our secondary-market data runs the other way: the single biggest auction result in our database over the past 90 days is a 17.4 million dollar coloured diamond at Christie's, and the most recent watch cycle set fresh records (a 75.8 million dollar Phillips sale, the highest-grossing watch auction in US history).- The testable question: does resale demand lead the listed cycle, or lag it? Resale prices are what end-buyers actually pay, so they can reveal pricing power before it reaches the income statement. The board (today's close):- European luxury: Hermès 1,620.00 euros (down 5.9 percent), LVMH 481.35 euros (down 3.6 percent), Burberry 1,102.5 pence (down 3.9 percent), Kering 266.10 euros (down 2.2 percent), Brunello Cucinelli 81.84 euros (down 6.8 percent), Richemont 182.30 Swiss francs (down 0.7 percent), Swatch 208.30 Swiss francs (down 1.1 percent), Watches of Switzerland 720.0 pence (down 0.5 percent), Pandora 639.80 Danish kroner (down 2.4 percent).- US-listed: Tapestry 149.20 dollars (up 2.3 percent), Movado 39.25 dollars (up 5.4 percent), Signet 86.73 dollars (up 0.3 percent), Capri 19.46 dollars (down 1.4 percent), Ferrari 348.42 dollars (down 1.7 percent).- Macro: gold about 4,211 dollars an ounce (down 2.8 percent), silver down 6.5 percent, WTI crude 74.20 dollars (down 2.4 percent), the dollar index near a one-year high at 101.0 (up 1.5 percent), US 10-year yield about 4.5 percent. Disclosure: ALT/FNDATA provides data and analysis, not investment advice.) Also from ALT/FNDATA:- Open Bid — tomorrow at 6 AM ET- Art Market — tomorrow (Tuesday)

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About

Closing Price reads the signal where luxury equities meet the alternative-asset markets underneath them. Each market day, with a deeper week-in-review every Friday, host Sharon Obuobi tracks the listed companies behind the world's great luxury brands and auction houses — LVMH, Hermès, Richemont, Ferrari, and the major houses — against ALT/FNDATA's proprietary resale and auction data across watches, jewelry, fine art, handbags, and collector cars. The edge is the divergence between where the stocks trade and where end-demand actually sits. For investors and analysts who want the demand behind the price, not just the ticker. Learn more and access the data at www.altfndata.com

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