Investment Musings

Nuno Mendes, CFA
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The audio edition of Investment Musings, by Nuno Amado Mendes, CFA. Cross-asset macro and markets in a plain, FT-neutral voice with a deliberately adversarial edge – every thesis carries the level at which it would be wrong. Less news, more thinking. 

Episodes

  1. Below Cost

    4d ago

    Below Cost

    Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, wants to kill inflation – and the convenient version of that story is that AI will do it for him. This week's leaked OpenAI accounts show who is actually paying: the disinflation everyone is celebrating is being sold below cost, funded by losses. And the largest loss-maker of the cycle has just chosen this moment to go public. Supply, not sentiment, tells you where you stand. Retail investors are buying calm. Someone is selling it. A personal editorial view, read aloud – not investment advice.

    2 min
  2. The Price of Calm

    6d ago

    The Price of Calm

    Low volatility is not the absence of risk – it is risk moved somewhere it no longer has to be counted. This episode argues that the AI build-out is the largest version of that trade ever built. It starts with the 2018 collapse of XIV, the note that sold calm and returned 585% until it lost 96% in a single day, and traces carry – the family of trades that earn a steady income for assuming stability holds, from the trader selling a put to the company buying back its stock to the central banks that have spent thirty years promising disorder will not be allowed to persist. Then it asks where that logic shows most clearly today, and lands on the financing edge of the AI build-out: the labs' compute commitments, the off-balance-sheet "shadow borrowing," and the circular flows between Nvidia, OpenAI, and CoreWeave. The other side gets its hearing – this may be infrastructure, not carry, the way railways and fiber once were. So the piece ends where most commentary won't: a written-down level at which the author is wrong. With thanks to Ahmed Husain, whose newsletter and podcast The Curious Mind first put The Rise of Carry in my hands. A personal editorial view, read aloud – not investment advice.

    12 min
  • 2 Episodes

About

The audio edition of Investment Musings, by Nuno Amado Mendes, CFA. Cross-asset macro and markets in a plain, FT-neutral voice with a deliberately adversarial edge – every thesis carries the level at which it would be wrong. Less news, more thinking. 

Information

  • Creator
    Nuno Mendes, CFA
  • Years Active
    2K
  • Episodes
    2
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Investment Musings
  • Show Website
    Investment Musings