The Crazy Sheet - College Football Handicapping

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  1. Jan 16

    Crazy Sheet Natty Preview: Indiana vs Miami

    It’s the Natty, and the market is getting emotional. Everyone is on Indiana right now — full “Cigs Inside” confidence. That matters because you’re usually paying a tax when the whole world crowds one side. The Setup Indiana’s been the steadier team: efficient, disciplined, and not beating themselves. Miami is the opposite vibe: higher ceiling, more speed, and the ability to flip a game with one explosive or short field. Scott’s Pick: Indiana Wins Scott’s riding the consistency. If this stays a clean, methodical, “don’t blink” championship game, he trusts Indiana to execute and close. Marc’s Pick: Miami Wins + Miami +8.5 Marc is fading in the public's love and taking the points with the explosive team. If the game gets weird or turns into any kind of track meet, he thinks Miami has the playmakers to steal it — and +8.5 is too much. Mark’s Bets 1H Under 24: championship games often start tight — conservative scripts, nerves, field position. Mark Fletcher Over 68.5 rush: Miami’s best path is staying on schedule and leaning on the run early to avoid obvious passing downs. Paths to Cash Indiana: Stay clean, win field position, force Miami to earn every drive. Miami: survive early, hit explosives, force Indiana to chase. Either way — the board says Indiana. The Crazy Sheet is split.

    43 min

  2. Jan 7

    CFP Semifinals Betting Preview

    It’s semifinal week, which means the takes get hotter, the nerves get tighter, and every “safe” number feels like a trap. Marc and Scotty break down both CFP semifinal matchups with a betting-first lens—tempo, game script, trench matchups, coaching decisions, and the one thing that always matters this time of year: how these games actually start. Our Favorite Angle: 1st Half Unders Both of the boys are aligned on the same vibe in both games: start slow, feel each other out, avoid the early mistake, and keep it tight through halftime. In CFP semis, you usually get a lot more chess than fireworks early—especially with elite athletes, conservative opening scripts, and coordinators playing “don’t lose” before they play “go win.” Miami Game: Marc’s Full Game Under Marc isn’t just living in the first half—he’s got a stronger position here: full game Under in the Miami semifinal. He likes the overall matchup to lean toward longer drives, fewer explosive plays, and the kind of red-zone stiffness that turns touchdowns into field goals. If Miami gets a lead, he expects the pace to drag even more. Oregon: Cover… and Maybe a Live Dog Marc’s side in the other semifinal: Oregon to cover, and he’s not ruling out a little spice—Oregon as a live dog depending on how the game opens. If the Ducks get behind early (or the market overreacts to one Indiana/Oregon punch), Marc is ready to shop a better number in-game. Lock in, crack a cold one, and let’s get weird—semifinal week is where the books get paid… unless you stay disciplined.

    39 min

  3. 12/30/2025

    CFP Quarterfinals Betting Preview

    It’s win-or-go-home season. Lines get tight, nerves get loud, and every coach suddenly discovers “conservative” like it’s a new religion. Marc & Scotty break down the CRP Quarterfinal slate with leans, matchups, and the kind of betting logic that sounds questionable until it cashes. Quick Card: What the boys like Miami vs Ohio State — Under 41 (Marc) Texas Tech +2.5 — Cover (Marc & Scotty) Alabama — Cover / Live dog (Scotty) UGA -6.5 — Cover (Marc & Scotty)

    28 min

  4. 12/19/2025

    The Crazy Sheet Podcast — CFP Round 1 Show

    The bracket is here, the group chats are unhinged, and Round 1 of the CFP is basically a four-game stress test for your nerves, your bankroll discipline, and your ability to not overreact to the first busted coverage. Marc & Scotty break down the slate with the usual recipe: matchup edges, pace, red zone math, and the “what’s the cleanest way this game goes sideways?” conversation for every favorite. Locks & Leans We’re Watching Bama vs. OU — Total Under (and 1H Under) Marc and Scotty are together on this one: they like the full game Under, and they also like the 1st Half Under. Round 1 often starts tight and cautious—scripted drives, conservative play-calling, field position, and a whole lot of “don’t be the guy who gifts a touchdown.” If this turns into punts + long fields + red zone tightening, a slow first half is very live. Miami vs. Texas A&M — Miami as a Live Dog They also see Miami as a live dog against the Aggies. Not a “cute dog,” but the kind that can hang around and make this uncomfortable if Miami hits a couple explosives and keeps A&M from turning it into a trench-warfare game. If A&M sputters early or Miami’s speed shows up in space, the favorite can feel real pressure late. Chalk Takes (Favorites to Handle Business) JMU vs. Oregon — Chalk Holds Both think chalk will hold in JMU–Oregon. The read: Oregon’s overall talent and depth should show over four quarters, and if the favorite plays clean early, this one can turn into the kind of “slow squeeze” where the underdog is fighting uphill the whole second half. Tulane vs. Ole Miss — Chalk Holds Same stance in Tulane–Ole Miss: both expect the favorite to take care of business. The idea is less about disrespecting Tulane and more about acknowledging what usually wins in playoff-style games—line play, speed on the edges, and the ability to finish drives when the field shrinks. What We’re Debating Round 1 tempo: Who actually wants to play fast, and who’s going full “don’t lose it early” mode? Red zone reality: Playoff games are often decided by TDs vs. FGs more than highlight plays. Coaching decision tax: conservative punts, “settle for 3,” and the one 4th-and-2 that swings everything. Betting Card Summary (Early) Bama–OU: Full Game Under Bama–OU: 1H Under Miami +points (Live Dog vs A&M) Oregon to advance / chalk side leans Ole Miss to advance / chalk side leans Closing Thought Round 1 is where “built for this” gets real. Everybody’s confident until the first busted protection, the first tipped ball, and the first time the underdog starts believing. Buckle up. CFP season is here—and the board is about to get violent.

    37 min

  5. 12/12/2025

    Army v Navy Betting Preview, Early Playoff Leans and How to Not Cheat on your wife

    This week on The Crazy Sheet Podcast, it’s Army–Navy season — aka America’s annual reminder that the forward pass was a mistake. We’re breaking down the 126th Army–Navy Game from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore (Sat., Dec. 13 | 3:00 p.m. ET | CBS) and talking how this one usually gets decided: field position, missed assignments, and a fullback dive that somehow feels personal.  Then we zoom out to the early College Football Playoff leans: quick-hit takes on Alabama @ Oklahoma (Dec. 19), Miami @ Texas A&M, Tulane @ Ole Miss, and James Madison @ Oregon (Dec. 20) — plus what the bracket path looks like with Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas Tech sitting on byes.  And yeah… we’ve gotta talk about it: WTF is Sherrone Moore doing? The Michigan situation went from “messy” to “holy hell” fast — fired by the university and now facing serious legal issues. We’ll keep it factual, talk fallout, and what it means for Michigan heading into bowl prep.

    27 min
  6. Championship Week Betting Preview

    12/03/2025

    Championship Week Betting Preview

    It’s Championship Week, and the board is hotter than a message board after a bad targeting call. Marc & Scotty are back on The Crazy Sheet to break down every title tilt that matters—from the big-boy conference championships with playoff tickets on the line to the G5 showdowns that only degenerates and proud alumni are watching start to finish. They’re talking: Who’s playing for style points and who just needs to survive Live dogs that can blow up the College Football Playoff bracket Totals where one team’s defense didn’t bother to show up this season Letdown and revenge angles after last week’s rivalry carnage Expect arguments over power ratings, sharp vs. square sides, and which coaches you absolutely cannot trust with a lead in the fourth quarter. They’ll circle the best bets, sprinkle some moneyline mayhem, and outline exactly where the chaos can sneak in and ruin somebody’s dream season—and maybe make yours. It’s the last full Saturday buffet before bowl season: grab a drink, fire up the spreadsheets, and let’s go hunting for edges on Championship Weekend with The Crazy Sheet.

    48 min
  7. Rivalry Week Betting Preview

    11/27/2025

    Rivalry Week Betting Preview

    It’s Rivalry Week. Records don’t matter, feelings don’t matter, and somebody’s season is about to go up in flames. Grab something cold to drink and get ready to buckle in for a fantastic final week of college football as Marc & Scotty fire up The Crazy Sheet for one last wild ride through the regular season. They’re breaking down all the hate games, bad-blood matchups, and trophy tilts on the board—talking point spreads, live dogs, letdown spots, and which fanbases might need a wellness check by Sunday morning. From classic grudge matches to sneaky under-the-radar rivalries, the boys sift through the numbers, argue over edges, and cook up a few degenerate specials to close out the year in style. It’s Rivalry Week on The Crazy Sheet—throw the records out the window and let’s go to war with the board.

    46 min

  8. 11/20/2025

    Week 13 College Football Betting Preview

    On this week’s Crazy Sheet – Week 13 episode, we’re stuffing the playoff chaos into one last regular-season weekend before the turducken coma kicks in. We’ve got Tennessee rolling into The Swamp to visit Florida in a night game that feels like equal parts rivalry and therapy session.  Missouri heads to Oklahoma trying to convince the committee they’re more than just “that team that ruined your parlay,” while USC @ Oregon looks like a track meet disguised as a football game. We’ll talk through Rutgers being a 4-touchdown+ chew toy for Ohio State, Samford picking up a check in College Station, and whether Arkansas @ Texas is a football game or just a three-hour message board argument with pads on. Then it’s BYU @ Cincinnati, Tennessee @ Florida, and a little late-night Washington @ UCLA for those of you who hate your sleep schedule. We’ll break down the new CFP Top 5, who’s truly alive, who’s CFP-bubble toast, and which coaches are about to have some very awkward December meetings. Plus: best bets, live-dog hunting, and our weekly segment, “This Line Can’t Be Right… Right?” Hit play, grab a drink, and let week 13 wash over you. Hawaii Over 64.5Hawaii +3Rutgers +31.5Temple +8.5BYU -2.5Florida + 4JMU -13.5Maryland +14UNC +7Coastal +24.5Oklahoma -7.5Utah -17.5Arizona -7North Texas -17.5Iowa -16.5Utah State +3

    46 min
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The Crazy Sheet is dedicated to bringing you everything college football and handicapping insight to the World's Greatest Sport

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