Rick Leach, MSN, APRN, PMHNP-BC | PsychiatRick | October 8, 2026 Before we begin, if you appreciate independent writing that takes mental health, politics, war, trauma, and moral accountability head-on, please subscribe to PsychiatRick. New articles are always free to read, but a paid subscription helps support the work and keeps this publication independent. Now, let’s get into it. Donald Trump spent October 6 promising surprises, and I think we can all guess what the f**k he means. In a morning Truth Social post bragging about his rallies and Republican prospects, he wrote, “Watch for the ‘Midterm Surprise!’” Later, speaking in Sparrows Point, Maryland, he turned to Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought and said, “We have some big surprises coming up in another few weeks, right Russ?” He didn’t explain either one. Those remarks don’t establish a specific plan to interfere with voting, but I’m pretty sure the Orange A*****e intends to find a way to cheat or call off the election altogether. I can’t read his mind, but I can read his record, and it isn’t subtle. The record On January 14, he told Reuters “we shouldn’t even have an election” while boasting about his administration’s accomplishments. The White House called it a joke, and I don’t give a shit how funny they think it is, because joking about whether voters get a say stops being funny when the guy telling it runs the federal government. Then on September 23, the OSCE’s election-observation bodies announced they hadn’t been invited to observe the 2026 midterms. They’ve observed 12 US federal elections since 2002, six of them midterms, and this is the first federal election since they started observing here for which they haven’t received an invitation. That doesn’t establish fraud or mean every election observer has been banned, but it’s a departure from an established practice of independent observation, and I want to know why. If this administration wants public confidence, it can start by explaining why those independent eyes weren’t invited. So here’s what we’ve got: a president who says we shouldn’t have an election, an administration that hasn’t invited these independent observers, and now, four weeks out, a wink at his budget director about big surprises. To me, those pieces form a pattern that deserves scrutiny, and I’m done letting every unsettling remark disappear under another excuse about his sense of humor. The people who can read So far I’ve talked about Trump like he’s the one with a plan. I don’t think he is. The man can’t get through a rally without wandering off to talk about sharks, and nobody’s handing him a 900-page policy document and expecting him to read it. They don’t need him to read it. They need him to sign it. That’s where Project 2025 comes in. The Heritage Foundation led it, more than 300 people contributed, and the result was a 900-plus-page blueprint for his second term. During the campaign, Trump swore he had nothing to do with it, and his campaign said its demise would be “greatly welcomed.” Then CNN found at least 140 peoplefrom his first administration had worked on it, including more than half the listed authors, editors, and contributors. Remember Russ, the guy Trump winked at in Maryland? Russell Vought didn’t just contribute. He’s one of Project 2025’s principal architects. He personally wrote the chapter on the Executive Office of the President, calling OMB the president’s “air-traffic control system.” He’s argued that no agency, the Justice Department included, should operate outside the president’s authority. And in a 2024 speech obtained by ProPublica, while he was helping lead Project 2025, he said, “We want the bureaucrats to be traumatically affected.” I treat trauma for a living. I don’t hear that as a figure of speech. When CNN pressed him on it, he said he meant the bureaucracy. Funny thing about the bureaucracy. It’s made of people. Now look at the Justice Department chapter, written by Gene Hamilton, a former Trump DOJ official. It calls on the department to investigate state election officials over their voting guidance, pointing to Pennsylvania’s 2020 decision to let voters cast provisional ballots after their mail ballots were tossed for minor errors. Fact-checkers have noted the document is light on voting details, and that’s fair. But you don’t need much detail to scare the shit out of a county clerk. And here’s what’s actually happened. The Justice Department has filed 31 lawsuits against states and DCdemanding unredacted voter rolls, driver’s license numbers and partial Social Security numbers included. It hasn’t won a single case where a court has ruled. More than 20 trial judges have turned it down, some of them Trump appointees, and so has a federal appeals court. The administration has also confirmed DOJ is sharing state voter roll data with Homeland Security. I can’t prove the voter roll fight came straight out of Project 2025, and I’m not claiming the midterm surprise did either. But when a president who can’t explain his own riddle turns to one of the main authors of a plan to remake the executive branch and says “right, Russ?”, I want to know what Russ has been writing lately. Trump is the mouth. These people are the hands. Watch the hands. I’m a psychiatric nurse practitioner, and I care about this because I care about the conditions people are trying to function under. With the midterms scheduled for November 3, I want us to pay attention to the burden of waiting while the president keeps hinting at something he won’t explain. What the waiting does to people A 2025 study in Psychiatry Research looked at 778 young adults using the PHQ-8 and GAD-7, standard depression and anxiety screens. Stress about election news was linked to higher odds of moderate-or-worse depressive and anxiety symptoms, while anticipatory election stress, the dread of what’s coming, was linked to depressive symptoms. Here’s the part that matters: stress about the election result itself wasn’t significantly linked to either outcome, so reducing the whole subject to sore losers misses what these researchers measured. The waiting and the watching deserve attention, especially when Trump keeps giving people another unexplained possibility to consider. It’s observational, so it can’t prove the news caused the symptoms, and a screening score isn’t a diagnosis either. But it flags symptoms that deserve attention, and I’m paying attention. Waiting isn’t empty time, because you still have to work, sleep, raise your kids, and make decisions while the question hangs over everything: what the f**k is coming next? You don’t need to know exactly what Trump means to want him to explain it, and you shouldn’t have to put the rest of your life on hold while he enjoys being mysterious. That’s the burden I want us to take seriously before November, while people are still trying to prepare for possibilities they can’t define. A February 2026 paper in Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin followed 623 Americans across seven survey waves, from three weeks before the 2024 election to 16 weeks afterward. Democratic supporters reported drops in well-being, optimism, perceived personal control, and institutional trust, with some changes lasting four months; Republican supporters generally moved the other way. These are measures of well-being and beliefs, and they don’t establish a nationwide psychiatric diagnosis. They do make it harder to wave away sustained political distress as something everyone quickly gets over, and they give us reason to ask what another month of presidential riddles is doing to people who already feel they’ve lost control. It gets especially personal when the policy concerns your kid. A 2026 study in Psychological Science examined 167 parents and 160 adolescents, drawing on assessments from 2022 through 2024 and additional assessments around the January 2025 inauguration. In preregistered analyses, parents of transgender youth had steeper declines in menta… Get full access to PsychiatRick at psychiatrick.substack.com/subscribe