The Daily Digits

The Daily Digits
  • 5.0 (1)
  • Investing
  • Updated Daily

Five or six numbers each morning. Base rate, horizon, and the misses published. thedailydigits.com

Episodes

  1. 13h ago

    14bp: the speech moved rates, not the jobs revision

    Two things hit the tape at the same minute on Friday morning, and the market is crediting the wrong one. 5:12 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode - Warsh added 14bp to the 2-year, and the payroll benchmark did nothing. Neutral on the front end, and that is a result rather than a shrug. Conditioning on a move this size gives 216 observations but only 28 distinct episodes, and every band around the forward direction runs 32 to 37 points wide. The move was real. The sequel is not knowable. - Raising the coupon cut the yearly bill, and the common is paying for the rest. Sound for the STRC holder and bearish MSTR common. The preferred is doing exactly what its terms say, and its price support is paid for by diluting the equity beneath it. - Evernorth’s merger pins the backing per share, so the $10.5174 cash exit wins. Bearish the shareholder who holds through the vote rather than redeeming. On the contract’s terms $10.5174 in cash beats roughly ten dollars of backing, and the gap is not an XRP view. - Chasing this 20% bitcoin run raises the odds ten points over three weeks. Bullish bitcoin, anchored on the 27 August close of $80,297. Direction is the only leg whose band excludes zero, and the drawdown warning on these runs is noise at this trigger. - pump.fun’s revenue high is real and only 70 cents of it reaches the burn. Bearish the cash bid under PUMP. The protocol stopped paying full price for its own token in April, so a revenue recovery at a 70% pass-through is worth 30% less to the holder than in March. - Solana’s SGP-0002 clears two thirds on one official rule and misses on the other. Neutral on SOL. Neither the tally nor turnout decides this. The denominator does, and until somebody picks one it is not priceable either way. On the ledger this morning - The 24 August Solana fee-burn call resolved a miss. The proposal was rejected, which is what we said would happen, but our written test was a turnout bar and turnout cleared it roughly twice over. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2026-08-28 Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    14bp: the speech moved rates, not the jobs revision

  2. 1d ago

    93 in 100: Nvidia’s best days are its most dangerous

    Nvidia closed up 8.74% on Thursday. Its own record since 2015 says a jump that size is a warning, not a green light. 5:13 on the numbers behind it. The Daily Digits makes five or six falsifiable market calls every morning, each with a base rate, a horizon and a line that would kill it. We publish the misses too. In this episode * Nvidia’s +5% days raise the odds of a 5% drawdown to 93 in 100. Expect a peak-to-trough fall of 5% or more inside 21 sessions of Thursday’s close, and neutral on direction over the same window. * Quarter-end is the only session where the funding spread separates. Neutral on funding stress into 30 September, and the reverse repo chart is not the gauge that would show it arriving. * Moonwell’s oracle move bought $3.01m of the $11.06m of borrowing power. Bearish WELL, with a $9,125,153 shortfall against a $13.2m circulating market cap. * Ethena buys no ENA until USDe supply is up 85%. Bearish ENA into the vote close on 2 September. On the ledger this morning * The 25 August Nvidia straddle call resolved a hit. The chain charged 6.058% of spot to own the move, and the stock moved 8.74%. * The 21 August ether call resolved a hit. Ether closed at 2422 and never went near the 1,900 short target. The full workings, every base rate and all the charts are in this morning’s edition: https://thedailydigits.com/p/daily-2026-08-27 Every call carries a horizon and a line that would kill it, and every one gets marked when it resolves, hit or miss. Five or six numbers every morning, free: https://thedailydigits.com Nothing here is investment advice. Get full access to The Daily Digits at thedailydigits.com/subscribe

    93 in 100: Nvidia’s best days are its most dangerous
  • 2 Episodes

About

Five or six numbers each morning. Base rate, horizon, and the misses published. thedailydigits.com

Information

  • Creator
    The Daily Digits
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    2
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © The Daily Digits
  • Show Website
    The Daily Digits