India Treasury Brief

A Agarwal
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India Treasury Brief is a twice-weekly, ten-minute podcast for Indian corporate treasurers — group and regional treasurers, CFOs and controllers. One theme per episode: what's moving for corporate treasury in India, and what to do about it. Every episode is built around one question a treasurer would ask, and closes with something concrete to act on, not just why the story matters. Built from exchange filings, regulator circulars, RBI data and public reporting. Sources listed in every episode's notes. Personal views. Not investment advice.

  1. 1d ago

    Dollar loan vs rupee loan: what an ECB really costs, and the GIFT City route

    Borrowing in rupees got more expensive in October, and the RBI is making dollar loans cheaper, but only for PSUs and banks. This episode looks at how a dollar loan (an ECB, or external commercial borrowing) is priced, how it compares with a rupee loan, and whether it's a good idea for your company. We go through what changed this year: the ECB cost ceiling removed in February, the RBI's 1.5% hedge for PSU and bank borrowing from June, and the rate moves in India and the US. Then the price, piece by piece: the SOFR benchmark, the lender's margin, the cost of the hedge, and the withholding tax that GIFT City removes. Once it's hedged, a dollar loan usually costs about what a rupee loan costs. Unhedged, it's a bet on the rupee, unless the company earns dollars. Then what I'd do, for a large company, a PSU, an exporter, and a smaller company or startup. CHAPTERS0:00 Cheap dollars, but not for everyone1:04 What changed this year2:56 How a dollar loan is priced4:55 Dollar loan vs rupee loan6:50 Is it right for your company? SOURCESFEMA (Borrowing and Lending) (First Amendment) Regulations 2026, summary (Khaitan & Co, Feb 2026): https://www.khaitanco.com/sites/default/files/2026-02/ERGO%20-%20ECB%20Regulations%20-%2020%20February%202026.pdfRBI USD-INR swap facility for ECBs and overseas borrowing, 8 June 2026 (EY alert): https://www.ey.com/en_in/technical/alerts-hub/2026/06/rbi-introduces-us-dollar-rupee-forex-swap-facility-for-external-commercial-borrowingsFinance Ministry on the swap window, 24 August 2026 (PIB): https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2302879Swap window totals to 31 August (Business Today, 2 Sep 2026): https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/rbis-forex-swap-facility-draws-massive-127-billion-through-fcnrb-deposits-552954-2026-09-02RBI, India's balance of payments for August 2026 (ECB flows), 15 Oct 2026: https://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63813RBI repo rate decision, 7 October 2026: https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63742Federal Reserve statement, 28 October 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htmMoney-market rates incl. 3-month CP, 19 Oct 2026 (Aditya Birla Sun Life MF tracker, CCIL data): https://mutualfund.adityabirlacapital.com/-/media/knowledgecenter/pdf/all-about-market/daily-fixed-income-tracker-19-oct-2026.pdfOne-year forward premium and bond yields (Business Standard, 26 Oct 2026): https://www.business-standard.com/markets/news/govt-bond-yields-rise-to-four-year-high-as-crude-us-treasury-yields-weigh-126102601296_1.htmlIndian Bank's four-year dollar loan pricing: https://app.dealroom.co/news/note/indian-bank-lands-400m-overseas-loan-at-119-123-bps-over-sofrCBDT Notification 80/2026, 13 July 2026 (no TDS on specified payments to IFSC units): https://www.incometax.gov.in/iec/foportal/sites/default/files/2026-07/Notification-80-2026.pdfSummary of the IFSC TDS exemption (India Briefing, 14 Jul 2026): https://www.india-briefing.com/news/india-tds-exemption-gift-city-ifsc-payments-46009.htmlWithholding tax on interest to non-residents under the Income-tax Act 2025 (TDSMAN, Aug 2026): https://blog.tdsman.com/2026/08/tds-on-interest-payable-to-non-residents-section-3932-section-194lc/Two-thirds of ECBs routed via GIFT IFSC, RBI data (Business Standard, Feb 2026): https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/over-65-ecbs-worth-18-bn-routed-via-gift-ifsc-in-fy26-so-far-rbi-data-126021200400_1.html The cost comparisons in this episode are our own estimates from the rates above, for illustration only. Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying documents before relying on them. Personal views. Not legal, tax or investment advice.

    Dollar loan vs rupee loan: what an ECB really costs, and the GIFT City route

  2. 4d ago

    MSME 45-day payment rule: what the new law changed for SMEs

    Paying a micro or small supplier late costs about 18.7% a year in interest, and that interest can't be claimed against tax. This episode covers India's MSME 45-day payment rule, what the new MSME law changed on 15 October, and the MSME Form I report due on 31 October. Almost every big company has SMEs in its supply chain, and paying them late is common: L&T's own annual report shows more than ₹3,000 crore paid to micro and small suppliers after the deadline last year. We look at what the rule says and which suppliers it covers (transporters and processors yes; medium firms, farmers and traders no), why the interest so rarely gets paid, what the new law switched on and what it left switched off, and the two rules that already apply to every private company: the tax deduction lost at 31 March and the half-yearly MSME Form I. Then what I'd do, as the big buyer and as the SME. CHAPTERS0:00 Paying SMEs late1:04 The 45-day rule and who it covers2:51 Why the interest goes unpaid4:28 What the new law changed7:07 What I'd do SOURCESMSMED (Amendment) Bill 2026, as introduced (PRS): https://prsindia.org/files/bills_acts/bills_parliament/2026/MSME_Bill_2026.pdfCommencement notification S.O. 5575(E), 12 October 2026 (gazette copy): https://gazettetracker.com/g/CG-DL-E-12102026-277080CPSEs to settle MSE invoices through TReDS, S.O. 3507(E), July 2026 (gazette copy): https://gazettetracker.com/g/CG-DL-E-02072026-273996RBI repo, MSF and Bank Rate, 7 October 2026: https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63742Supreme Court, NBCC (India) v State of West Bengal, 10 January 2025: https://api.sci.gov.in/supremecourt/2022/24558/24558_2022_12_1501_58501_Judgement_10-Jan-2025.pdfLok Sabha Unstarred Question 972, 5 February 2026 (MSME council cases): https://sansad.in/getFile/loksabhaquestions/annex/187/AU972_akHtxD.pdf?source=pqalsMSME Form I, amendment order S.O. 2751(E), 15 July 2024: https://ibclaw.in/specified-companies-furnishing-of-information-about-payment-to-micro-and-small-enterprise-suppliers-amendment-order-2024-mca-notification-no-s-o-2751e-dated-15-07-2024/Traders on Udyam for priority sector lending only, RBI circular, 7 July 2021: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Id=12126TReDS volumes, PIB research note, 11 August 2026: https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/specificdocs/documents/2026/aug/doc2026811951101.pdfAnnual reports 2025-26 (NSE): L&T https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/annual_reports/AR_29259_LT_2025_2026_A_29793480_14052026183032.pdf · Tata Steel https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/annual_reports/AR_29336_TATASTEEL_2025_2026_A_19703090_03062026194432.pdf · Ola Electric https://nsearchives.nseindia.com/annual_reports/AR_31975_OLAELEC_2025_2026_A_20107852_08092026222027.pdfJ&K award case (JTL Infra), April 2025: https://24law.in/story/j-k-high-court-dismisses-writ-against-rs-11-5-crore-msme-award-holds-supreme-court-judgments-remainIncome-tax rule (old s.43B(h), now s.37(2)(g) of the Income-tax Act 2025): Rajya Sabha Unstarred Question 242, 21 July 2026. Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying documents before relying on them. Personal views. Not legal, tax or investment advice.

    MSME 45-day payment rule: what the new law changed for SMEs

  3. Oct 24

    Rupee forecast for next year: 96, 98 or 100? Picking your budget rate

    Rupee forecast for next year: what to put in your budget, what's pushing the rupee each way, and the one rate you can lock in. What rupee rate should go into next year's budget? This year's plans assumed about 91 to the dollar, and the rupee was near 95 before the year began. This episode looks at why this year's budget rate went wrong so quickly, what's pushing the rupee weaker (oil, US interest rates, foreign investors selling) and what's holding it up (the Reserve Bank, India's services earnings, the US trade deal), the one rate a treasurer can actually lock in, and three things I'd do before setting next year's number: measure this year's miss, set the hedge ratio first and let the budget rate follow, and stress test the plan at a hundred. CHAPTERS0:00 The plan rate that missed1:09 How this year's rate was set3:05 What's pushing the rupee weaker5:04 What's holding the rupee up6:55 The one rate we can lock in8:32 What I'd do SOURCESRupee monthly averages, US Federal Reserve G.5 (FRED): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EXINUSOil prices in Q1 2026, US Energy Information Administration: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67424India's balance of payments, April to June 2026 (RBI data, Business Standard): https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/india-s-current-account-deficit-widens-to-4-2-bn-in-q1-as-trade-gap-grows-126090101448_1.htmlFederal Reserve projections, September 2026: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htmRBI Monetary Policy Committee minutes, October 2026: https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63839Cogencis macroeconomic expectations survey, February 2026: https://www.cogencis.com/assets/pdf/insights/Macroeconomic_Expectations_Survey_Report_Feb26.pdfRupee closes, forex reserves, foreign portfolio flows, Brent and the US ten-year yield: PTI, RBI weekly data, depository data and market reporting, October 2026.Forward premium: FBIL and market quotes. Bank rupee forecasts: CNBC, 16 October 2026.India–US trade deal: Commerce Minister, 15 October 2026. Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them. Personal views. Not investment advice.

    Rupee forecast for next year: 96, 98 or 100? Picking your budget rate

  4. Oct 21

    India's carbon market explained: what it means for treasury

    India's carbon market explained: how carbon credit certificates work for about 490 plants, and what treasury teams should plan for. For about 490 of India's biggest plants, carbon has just turned into money. Beat the carbon target and you have certificates to sell; miss it and you buy them, or pay twice the market price. India's Carbon Credit Trading Scheme has set carbon targets for plants in aluminium, cement, chlor-alkali, paper, oil refining, petrochemicals and textiles, and trading on the power exchanges is due to start soon. This episode looks at why it's happening now, how the certificates work, how Europe, China and America price carbon, what it could cost, where the market stands, and what treasury teams should do, inside the scheme and outside it. CHAPTERS0:00 Carbon is now money0:42 Why now: three government steps2:17 How the carbon certificates work4:01 How Europe, China and America do it5:33 What it could cost7:07 Where the market stands8:36 If we're inside the schemes10:46 For everyone else SOURCESIndia's updated climate pledge (NDC), approved by the Cabinet in March 2026: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2245209®=3&lang=1Carbon Credit Trading Scheme, targets and penalties (ICAP overview): https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/ets/indian-carbon-credit-trading-schemeCERC Carbon Credit Certificates Regulations, 2026 (Khaitan & Co summary): https://www.khaitanco.com/sites/default/files/2026-03/ERGO_Carbon%20Credit%20Enter%20the%20Market_20%20March%202026.pdfBureau of Energy Efficiency, operational guidelines for the renewable consumption obligation: https://beeindia.gov.in/WriteReadData/L45218/9003437506971259.pdfSEBI, BRSR Core assurance for the top 1,000 listed companies (LODR master circular, January 2026)ICRA ESG estimates for cement and aluminium, April 2026 (Indian Cement Review): https://indiancementreview.com/2026/04/cement-firms-may-face-19-per-cent-profit-hit-under-carbon-scheme/EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism: https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_enCarbon prices: EU (GMK Center), China (Sxcoal), California's August auction (EDF), October 2026 reporting. Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.Personal views. Not investment advice.

    India's carbon market explained: what it means for treasury

  5. Oct 17

    RBI rules on AI and model risk: how treasury can borrow them

    RBI rules on AI and model risk: what the draft guidance asks of banks, and how treasury can borrow it for its own models. The RBI's draft rules say a spreadsheet becomes a model the moment its answer sets a price or drives a decision. By that test, most corporate treasury desks in India run models too. The Reserve Bank of India's draft guidance on model risk management would require banks and other lenders to list every model they use, have each one checked independently, plan fallbacks, and build kill switches for AI. This episode looks at what that changes in how banks deal with corporate treasury, and how treasury can borrow a lighter version for its own spreadsheets and AI tools. CHAPTERS0:00 The model decided1:01 What the banks are being told3:38 What changes in how banks deal with us4:54 Our own models7:38 Borrowing the rulebook SOURCESRBI, Draft Guidance on Regulatory Principles for Model Risk Management (June 2026): https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/bs_viewcontent.aspx?Id=5089RBI, FREE-AI committee report (August 2025): https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?ID=1306RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, "Winning in the AI Era", FIBAC 2026: https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=1567Financial Stability Board, sound practices for responsible AI adoption (15 October 2026): https://www.fsb.org/2026/10/fsb-finalises-sound-practices-for-the-responsible-adoption-of-artificial-intelligence-ai/RBI, FAQs on the Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve (15 October 2026): https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/FAQDisplay.aspx?Id=180EY, India Corporate Treasury Survey 2025: https://ey.com/en_in/insights/consulting/india-corporate-treasury-survey-2025-how-ai-and-automation-are-redefining-treasuryReuters reporting on bank pricing of the reserve, October 2026; Digital Personal Data Protection Rules, 2025. Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.Personal views. Not investment advice.

    RBI rules on AI and model risk: how treasury can borrow them

  6. Oct 14

    RBI forex measures, October 2026: the 2013 rupee playbook is back

    RBI forex measures, October 2026: the rebooking ban, the 20% reserve on hedges and the oil companies' dollar window, and what they mean for treasury. The Reserve Bank of India announced new foreign exchange measures on 10 October 2026: a special dollar window for Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum, a ban on rebooking cancelled rupee hedges, a lower documentation threshold, and a 20% Foreign Exchange Risk Reserve on large hedges of current account payments. This episode sets the Reserve Bank's 2026 defence of the rupee against its 2013 playbook, and looks at what it changes for corporate treasury in India: forward contracts and cancellation, shipment delays, the one-bank undertaking, the cost of import cover, and four lessons from 2011 to 2014. (0:00) The oil window is back(0:43) History repeating: 2013 and 2026(2:59) What it changes for us(5:47) The new rules and the first days(8:34) Four lessons from 2013 Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music and YouTube. Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES• RBI press releases of 10 October 2026 on foreign exchange market measures and the oil company dollar window• RBI A.P. (DIR Series) Circulars 25, 26 and 27 of October 2026, and the April 2026 circular and its withdrawal• RBI notifications on cash reserve maintenance and export realisation, 2026• RBI circulars of 2011 to 2014 on cancelling and rebooking forward contracts• Business Standard and Reuters reporting from 2013 on the oil window, the deposit swap window and forward premiums• Reuters, Business Standard and market reports on the rupee, forward premiums and bank pricing, October 2026• Clearing Corporation of India forward data, as reported by Reuters Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

    RBI forex measures, October 2026: the 2013 rupee playbook is back

  7. Oct 10

    RBI rate cuts and your loan rate: why the full cut never arrived

    RBI rate cuts and your loan rate: why only part of the 125 basis points of cuts reached corporate loans. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate on 7 October 2026, its first increase in nearly four years, and moved its stance to calibrated tightening. This episode looks at how a policy rate move actually reaches an Indian corporate borrower: the benchmark a bank lends off, the spread on top of it, reset dates in facility agreements, the long road from the prime lending rate through the base rate and MCLR to the external benchmark, the Reserve Bank's 2017 study group on why transmission stalled, and the draft Interest Rates on Loans and Advances Directions now proposed to take effect in 2027. (0:00) The cut that expired(1:40) Four benchmarks in fifteen years(4:46) What it cost us this cycle(6:54) A fifth rewrite, in draft(9:15) What I'd do about it Listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music and YouTube. Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES• RBI monetary policy — the October 2026 resolution and Governor's statement, and the April 2026 Monetary Policy Report• RBI Working Paper Series — transmission under the base rate and MCLR regimes (Chattopadhyay and Mitra, 2022)• RBI Internal Study Group on the working of the MCLR system, 2017, and the Reserve Bank's addendum to it• RBI Master Directions on interest rates on advances, and the September 2019 external benchmark circular• RBI draft Interest Rates on Loans and Advances Directions, 2026, and the press release inviting comments• Business Standard and Bank of Baroda analyses of what the 2025 cuts reached• Governor Rajan's 2015 remarks on asymmetric transmission, as reported at the time Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

    RBI rate cuts and your loan rate: why the full cut never arrived

  8. Sep 30

    Rupee, rates and oil: the July to September quarter in review

    Rupee, rates and oil, July to September 2026: oil rose about 40% and the rupee fell only about 1.4%, so where did the pressure go? A special quarter-end edition. Between July and September, Brent crude rose by about 40% and the rupee fell only about 1.4%. This episode looks at where that pressure went: how the Reserve Bank held the rupee with its swap windows, record reserves and a forward book that nearly doubled; what happened to foreign direct and portfolio investment; why three-month money got cheaper while everything from six months out got more expensive; how June's rupee forecasts turned out; and the four signals and four dates worth watching between now and December. (00:00) Oil up 40%, the rupee barely moved(00:59) The rupee, and how it was held(02:22) FDI and FPI(03:27) Where the pressure went: rates(06:11) How June's forecasts did(07:24) What to watch into December THE QUARTER IN NUMBERS (July–September 2026) Start Close ChangeUSD/INR (close) 94.65 95.95 +1.4% (rupee −1.4%)Brent crude ($/bbl) 71.57 102.59 +43.3%FX reserves ($bn) 666.93 765.90 +14.8%Repo rate 5.25% 5.25% unchanged3-month T-bill 5.23% 5.35% +12 bp (+2.3%)6-month T-bill 5.30% 5.67% +37 bp (+7.0%)10-year G-sec 6.75% 7.15% +40 bp (+5.9%)1-year forward premium 2.81% 3.17% +36 bp (+13.0%)Start: 30 June (Brent 1 July; reserves week to 26 June). Close: USD/INR 30 September; Brent 29 September; reserves week to 18 September; T-bills and forward premium 22 September; 10-year 30 September. DATES TO WATCH7 October — RBI rate decision · 28 October — US Federal Reserve · 4 December — RBI · 9 December — US Federal Reserve · 31 December — last date to draw down under the RBI's swap facility for PSU external commercial borrowings Personal views. Not investment advice. SOURCES• Money-market rates, forward premia and reference rate — FBIL• Rupee closes — PTI• Brent — Fortune (1 July); Reuters (29 September)• Foreign exchange reserves and swap-window inflows — RBI, via Business Standard, ANI and Entrepreneur India• RBI forward book — RBI monthly bulletin via Business Standard (July); Bloomberg and Reuters (August)• Foreign portfolio investment — NSDL• Foreign direct investment — RBI monthly bulletin via Business Standard; balance of payments, April–June — RBI via Business Standard• RBI bond sales and liquidity — Business Standard• Rate-hike calls — SBI (Soumya Kanti Ghosh) via Business Standard; HSBC Global Investment Research via ANI• 10-year G-sec — countryeconomy; Trading Economics• Forecasts — Reuters poll (26 June–1 July) via The Wire; Business Standard poll (8 June); Goldman Sachs (8 June) via Bloomberg and Business Standard; Reuters poll (August) via Yahoo Finance; bank forecast range via exchangerates.org.uk• ECB swap facility for PSUs — RBI circular of 8 June 2026, via EY• Meeting dates — RBI MPC calendar; US Federal Reserve Figures are as reported. Check against the underlying data before relying on them.

    Rupee, rates and oil: the July to September quarter in review
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About

India Treasury Brief is a twice-weekly, ten-minute podcast for Indian corporate treasurers — group and regional treasurers, CFOs and controllers. One theme per episode: what's moving for corporate treasury in India, and what to do about it. Every episode is built around one question a treasurer would ask, and closes with something concrete to act on, not just why the story matters. Built from exchange filings, regulator circulars, RBI data and public reporting. Sources listed in every episode's notes. Personal views. Not investment advice.

Information

  • Creator
    A Agarwal
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    18
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © A Agarwal
  • Show Website
    India Treasury Brief