The Poly Brief

David Meir-Levy
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Every day, people around the world put money on what happens next: who wins an election, whether rates go up, whether a ceasefire holds. On the prediction market Polymarket, those prices are odds, and they move the moment something happens. The Poly Brief picks the one or two biggest moves on the board each morning, shows where the odds stand and how they shifted, and answers the question that actually matters: why is the market betting this way? What happened in the news, what's driving it, and what could still flip it. Maya and Daniel, ten minutes, every day. Every number is backed by repo

  1. 11h ago

    Nov 10: Jensen Huang's worst week, priced at 14.5%, and the Anthropic IPO range that got pulled back at 97%

    Jensen Huang admitted an affair with a woman US intelligence reportedly believes was recruited by China's Ministry of State Security. Nvidia's board opened an independent investigation, the stock fell 4.3%, and Trump says the FBI is looking into it. Polymarket's brand new market on whether Huang announces he's leaving, or is removed, by December 31: 14.5%. By March 31: 23.5%. Why so low: co-founder since 1993, no successor, analysts saying he's "not replaceable", a board that says it has confidence in him. Then Anthropic, now 97% to list by year end, up from 66 last Friday. On Monday, reports said the shares would trade next Thursday or Friday, and a price range went out to bankers: $70 to $80, up to $69.3 billion raised. Hours later, Anthropic told the bankers the figures were "inaccurate". The market barely blinked. Plus Who Called It on the US-Iran pause: we said 81.5% it holds through November 8. It didn't. Disclosure: this script is written with Claude, an AI model made by Anthropic, so we stick to outside reporting. Markets in this episode (snapshot: November 10, 2026, 07:30 UTC) Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by...?: March 31, 2027 23.5%, December 31, 2026 14.5% https://polymarket.com/event/jensen-huang-announced-resignation-or-removal-by-december-31Anthropic IPO by __?: December 31, 2026 97%, December 15, 2026 95.5% https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-byAll 29 sources, and past episodes: https://the-poly-brief.netlify.app/episodes/2026-11-10/ For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.

    Nov 10: Jensen Huang's worst week, priced at 14.5%, and the Anthropic IPO range that got pulled back at 97%

  2. 1d ago

    Nov 9: Hegseth's impeachment week, and the market that doesn't count it, plus Spain's 92% favorite

    Polymarket gives Pete Hegseth a 41.5% chance of leaving the Trump administration before 2027, double where it was a month ago. This week, Thomas Massie forces a House vote on impeaching him, and Hakeem Jeffries is a "hard yes." But the market doesn't pay on impeachment. It pays only if his exit is announced by December 31, and Trump says he has "every intention to keep him." Last week the odds hit 56, then fell to 31 on the day Trump replaced his chief of staff instead. Then Spain, three weeks from a snap election. Alberto Núñez Feijóo is at 92.5% to be the next prime minister, up from about 80 in October, as new polls put PP and Vox near 200 seats. The other side: 2023, when Feijóo won the most seats and still lost the investiture vote. Markets in this episode (snapshot: November 9, 2026, 08:47 UTC) Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?: Pete Hegseth 41.5%, Kristi Noem 23.1% https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027Next Prime Minister of Spain?: Alberto Núñez Feijóo 92.5%, Pedro Sánchez 6.6% https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-spain-20260625005215443All 32 sources, and past episodes: https://the-poly-brief.netlify.app/episodes/2026-11-09/ For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.

    Nov 9: Hegseth's impeachment week, and the market that doesn't count it, plus Spain's 92% favorite

  3. 2d ago

    Nov 8: Eisenkot gets the mandate the market said he wouldn't, and New Zealand's fewer-votes favorite

    Eleven days ago, Polymarket gave Netanyahu a 67.5% chance to get the first mandate to form Israel's next government. This evening, President Herzog hands it to Gadi Eisenkot, after 67 members of the Knesset recommended him. The market for Israel's next prime minister now has Eisenkot at 68%, a record, and Netanyahu at 18.6. What moved it: Avigdor Lieberman dropping his veto on the Haredi parties. What could still stop it: Lieberman's other veto, and the rule that a caretaker doesn't count. Then New Zealand. Labour leads the party vote, 29.4% to 29.2%. National has six more seats, thanks to electorate wins, and the market only counts seats: National 97.7% to be the largest party. Plus Who Called It on the US-Iran pause, finally settled after a week of disputes. Markets in this episode (snapshot: November 8, 2026, 08:57 UTC) Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot 67.8%, Benjamin Netanyahu 18.6% https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-electionNew Zealand legislative election winner?: National Party 97.7%, Labour Party 2.1% https://polymarket.com/event/new-zealand-legislative-election-winnerWho will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?: Gadi Eizenkot 99.7%, Benjamin Netanyahu 0.1% https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-receive-the-first-mandate-to-form-israels-next-government-20261019144924877All 22 sources, and past episodes: https://the-poly-brief.netlify.app/episodes/2026-11-08/ For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.

    Nov 8: Eisenkot gets the mandate the market said he wouldn't, and New Zealand's fewer-votes favorite

  4. 4d ago

    Nov 6: The AI selloff hits Anthropic's IPO, and the Fed hike in the same hour

    On Thursday the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, its worst day since April 2025, as the Democratic midterm sweep raised fears of pauses in data center construction. Within the same hour, two markets that have nothing to do with each other fell together. Anthropic listing by the end of the year: 66%, down from 91 that morning, after reports that big investors doubt a $1.5 trillion valuation and that the roadshow could slip. Plus the "AI bubble burst" market, and the fine print that makes a Yes much harder than a bad day. Disclosure: this script is written with Claude, an AI model made by Anthropic, so we stick to outside reporting. Then the Fed. A December hike fell from 78% to 66.5% in the same hour, with no Fed news and no data surprise. Why a stock crash moves rate odds, why traders still say hike, and the jobs report out today. Markets in this episode (snapshot: November 6, 2026, 06:48 UTC) Anthropic IPO by __?: December 31, 2026 66%, December 15, 2026 64% https://polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-byAI bubble burst by...?: June 30, 2027 27.5%, December 31, 2026 8.5% https://polymarket.com/event/ai-bubble-burst-byWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$1.5T 83.7%, ↑$1.75T 54% https://polymarket.com/event/will-anthropics-valuation-hit-by-december-31Fed Decision in December?: 25 bps increase 66.5%, No change 32.5% https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632All 17 sources, and past episodes: https://the-poly-brief.netlify.app/episodes/2026-11-06/ For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.

    Nov 6: The AI selloff hits Anthropic's IPO, and the Fed hike in the same hour

  5. 5d ago

    Nov 5: Mississippi's 1,138 votes, Alaska's math, and Iran's new clock

    Yesterday Scott Colom led Mississippi's Senate race by 43 votes and the market gave him 80%. By Wednesday evening the lead was 1,138, and the market says 96. Why traders are so sure in a state with no recount law at all, what's still out (3,600 mail ballots, an unknown pile of affidavits), and how a tie would be decided: a coin toss. Then Alaska, where Mary Peltola is at 94.5% on a 626-vote lead, and the one analysis that says the ranked choice count could flip it. Then Iran. Who called it on the old ceasefire market: the November 3 date resolved No, as the market said, but October 31 and November 2 are stuck in a dispute. And Polymarket opened a new market that starts the clock from zero: 96.9% that the quiet holds through today, 58.5 through November 15, 28.5 through the end of the year. Markets in this episode (snapshot: November 5, 2026, 04:38 UTC) US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?: November 5 96.9%, November 6 92% https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-effective-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20261103US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: October 31 100%, November 2 100% https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptptMississippi Senate Election Winner: Scott Colom (D) 96.2%, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 4% https://polymarket.com/event/mississippi-senate-election-winnerAlaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola (D) 94.5%, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 5.8% https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-winnerRepublican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets): 44 92.1%, 45 5.7% https://polymarket.com/event/republican-senate-seats-after-the-midterms-low-bracketsAll 29 sources, and past episodes: https://the-poly-brief.netlify.app/episodes/2026-11-05/ For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.

    Nov 5: Mississippi's 1,138 votes, Alaska's math, and Iran's new clock

  6. 6d ago

    Nov 4: The wave, a 43-vote Senate race, and Israel's first mandate

    The morning after the midterms. Democrats won the Senate and the House, and we open the board on every call we made: the Senate at 64.5% two weeks ago, Kansas, Maine, Texas. And two misses, both in the same direction: Iowa, where the market had the Republican at 58%, and the Texas governor's race, where Gina Hinojosa beat Greg Abbott, the first Democratic governor there since 1990. Then Mississippi: at 11:30 at night the market gave Scott Colom 12%. Thirty five minutes later he led by 28 votes, and the market said 75. Now it's 43 votes and 80%. Plus Alaska, two Dan Sullivans, and the man with "zero interest" who is now the favorite for 2028. Then Israel. The election results are official, the consultations start today, and Gadi Eisenkot is at 55%, up 11 in a day. Lieberman's switch, the recommendation math (46 for Netanyahu, 48 confirmed for Eisenkot, 19 more expected from the Arab parties), and why a first mandate is not a government. Markets in this episode (snapshot: November 4, 2026, 10:55 UTC) Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: resolved before the snapshot https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep 100%, D Senate, R House 0.1% https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midtermsMississippi Senate Election Winner: Scott Colom (D) 80.5%, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 19.1% https://polymarket.com/event/mississippi-senate-election-winnerAlaska Senate Election Winner: Mary Peltola (D) 86.3%, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 13.6% https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-winnerRepublican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets): 44 71.2%, 45 22.6% https://polymarket.com/event/republican-senate-seats-after-the-midterms-low-bracketsTexas Governor Election Winner: resolved before the snapshot https://polymarket.com/event/texas-governor-winner-2026Kansas Senate Election Winner: resolved before the snapshot https://polymarket.com/event/kansas-senate-election-winnerNebraska Senate Election Winner : Pete Ricketts (R) 100%, Democrat 0.1% https://polymarket.com/event/nebraska-senate-election-winnerIowa Senate Election Winner: resolved before the snapshot https://polymarket.com/event/iowa-senate-election-winnerDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Jon Ossoff 29%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17.3% https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot 55%, Benjamin Netanyahu 27.2% https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-electionIsrael Election: Ra'am # of seats?: resolved before the snapshot https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-raam-of-seatsAll 29 sources, and past episodes: https://the-poly-brief.netlify.app/episodes/2026-11-04/ For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.

    Nov 4: The wave, a 43-vote Senate race, and Israel's first mandate

  7. Nov 3

    Nov 3: A strike on Qeshm, three hours of silence. And Election Day

    Overnight, the US struck targets on Iran's Qeshm Island, in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media reported explosions just after midnight local time, and the market barely moved. More than three hours later, a report said the US did it, and in five minutes the bet that the pause holds through Tuesday fell from 92% to 53%. It's now 6.5%. Every date from November 4 on has already resolved No. Why "through November 2" is still at 64%, why even October 31, a date that's over, fell to 27, and what US officials call "limited defensive strikes". Then Election Day in America. Democrats are at 75.5% for the Senate and 75.5% to take both chambers, up ten points in a week. Nate Silver's model crossed 80% for the first time. The path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Texas, the polling errors that went the other way in 2016, 2020 and 2024, and the poll closing times to watch tonight. Plus a quick Who Called It: Apple and NVIDIA after Apple's earnings. Markets in this episode (snapshot: November 3, 2026, 04:41 UTC) US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?: October 31 77.5%, November 2 63.7% https://polymarket.com/event/us-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptptBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep 75.5%, R Senate, D House 18.5% https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midtermsWhich party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party 75.5%, Republican Party 23.5% https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026Largest Company end of December 2026?: NVIDIA 62.5%, Apple 35% https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-december-2026All 27 sources, and past episodes: https://the-poly-brief.netlify.app/episodes/2026-11-03/ For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.

    Nov 3: A strike on Qeshm, three hours of silence. And Election Day

  8. Nov 2

    Nov 2: Eisenkot hits 50, then meets Lieberman. And Texas on the eve of the midterms

    Israel's prime minister market flipped again. Gadi Eisenkot is at 43.5%, up nine points in a day, with Benjamin Netanyahu down to 35.5. On Sunday evening Eisenkot touched 50%, around the time Bennett's party said it will recommend him, on about $25,000 of trading. Then Ynet reported Avigdor Lieberman's line against a minority government, and by eleven at night he was back at 43. Why the market moves: a minority-government plan that runs on abstentions, an undecided Haredi party, and a president who wants a unity government. Plus Who Called It: the Likud's seat count. Then the US midterms, one day out. Texas governor: Greg Abbott fell from 69% on Saturday to 58% this morning, after a New York Times/Siena poll had Gina Hinojosa ahead, 48 to 47, in a state where no Democrat has won statewide in 32 years. The Senate sits at 71.5% for Democrats. And from Polymarket's homepage, the 2028 Democratic race: AOC 16, Newsom 15.5, and Jon Ossoff, who is on the ballot tomorrow and says he has zero interest, 14.5. Markets in this episode (snapshot: November 2, 2026, 04:06 UTC) Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?: Gadi Eizenkot 43.5%, Benjamin Netanyahu 35.5% https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-electionTexas Governor Election Winner: Greg Abbott (R) 58.1%, Gina Hinojosa (D) 41.5% https://polymarket.com/event/texas-governor-winner-2026Which party will win the Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party 71.5%, Republican Party 28.5% https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 16%, Gavin Newsom 15.5% https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: Democrats Sweep 70.5%, R Senate, D House 23.5% https://polymarket.com/event/balance-of-power-2026-midtermsAll 27 sources, and past episodes: https://the-poly-brief.netlify.app/episodes/2026-11-02/ For information only. Not investment advice and not a recommendation to bet. Odds are prediction-market prices at the snapshot time and change constantly. Polymarket is restricted in some countries. The Poly Brief is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. The Poly Brief: a daily podcast on the biggest moves on Polymarket, and why.

    Nov 2: Eisenkot hits 50, then meets Lieberman. And Texas on the eve of the midterms
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About

Every day, people around the world put money on what happens next: who wins an election, whether rates go up, whether a ceasefire holds. On the prediction market Polymarket, those prices are odds, and they move the moment something happens. The Poly Brief picks the one or two biggest moves on the board each morning, shows where the odds stand and how they shifted, and answers the question that actually matters: why is the market betting this way? What happened in the news, what's driving it, and what could still flip it. Maya and Daniel, ten minutes, every day. Every number is backed by repo

Information

  • Creator
    David Meir-Levy
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    32
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © David Meir-Levy
  • Show Website
    The Poly Brief