The Heat Map

Eric
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The Heat Map — brands, macro, trading ideas, long-term stock ideas, and research, from one expert team, always on. The Heat Map is the podcast from Eric's digital investment team — eleven sector experts, a chief macro strategist, and a marketing desk, led by Muse — tracking where the heat is across brands, sectors, and markets: the macro forces that move risk, trading ideas for right now, and long-term stock ideas built on deep research.

  1. 5h ago

    HEDGE FUND LETTERS ROUNDUP — Pershing Square's Q3 Book and Third Point's Round Trip

    Two third-quarter letters from two managers behind our Hedge Fund Favs 20, in one roundup. Pershing Square (Ackman, letter dated Nov 2, 2026): Q3 NAV +3.5% vs the S&P 500's +2.3%, but −9.6% net year to date. Eighteen lines, $16.7B of exposure at 126% of net assets: Microsoft 15.0%, Uber 14.0%, Meta / Amazon / Brookfield 11.2% each. Seven new investments in 2026 (Netflix, ICE, Mastercard, Visa, S&P Global, Alcon) on his breadth thesis — the median stock fell 4% in Q3 while median EPS estimates rose 4%. The hyperscaler essay: capex is offensive, consensus embeds the cost and discounts the upside (1 GW ≈ $40–50B cost → $15–20B revenue → 15–25% pre-tax ROIC). Fannie/Freddie: −61% YTD, held — "our 13-year holding period has been a long time to wait." Third Point (Loeb, Q3 2026): Offshore Fund −6.7% in Q3, flat YTD. Equity book only 40.7% net — credit is 42.3% of net exposure and never shows in a 13F. The round trip: Q2 filings showed exits from Nvidia and Meta; by Sep 30 Meta is his #1 gross long and Nvidia #3. Capital One is the one Favs 20 name on his loser list. Learnings for HF Favs 20: Meta and Amazon top both books; Microsoft is Ackman's #1 while only #11 in our Favs; Uber (Ackman's #2) and Warner Bros. Discovery (Loeb's biggest disclosed bet) are both invisible to a breadth-ranked book. Q3 13Fs land Nov 16 — where both letters get graded. Full written summaries filed in Victor's desk notes (research_notes/hedge-fund-favs/). Source for the Pershing segment: PSH Q3 2026 shareholder letter, pershingsquareholdings.com. Source for the Third Point segment: Third Point's official Sep 2026 performance update and Q2 2026 letter/13F record, as documented in the desk summary.

  2. 8h ago

    EARNINGS — Around the Horn: AMD, ANET, ALAB, SMCI

    EARNINGS — Around the Horn, Tuesday after-the-close edition, November 3, 2026: the AI infrastructure slate. Marco hosts; Tom (Technology & AI desk) covers all four names. AMD — BEAT, guide raised. Q3 revenue a record $13.38B (+45%) vs ~$13.1B expected; non-GAAP EPS $2.09 vs $1.95. Data Center $8.5B, +97%. Q4 guided to ~$17B vs $16.29B consensus. After hours +5.0%. Verdict: fair, if anything light — the argument has moved to cash conversion (FCF $554M, 4% margin). Arista Networks — BEAT (blowout). Revenue $3.66B, +58.5% — fastest growth since the IPO — vs $3.33B expected; non-GAAP EPS $1.20 vs $1.08. Q4 guided $3.9-4.0B; first look at 2027: ~$18.5B (+38-40%). After hours +9.5%, the night's biggest gain. Verdict: fair. Astera Labs — BEAT with the night's largest guidance raise; stock sold. Revenue $584.9M (+154%) vs ~$551M; non-GAAP EPS $1.32 vs $1.19. Q4 guided $730-750M vs ~$642M consensus. After hours -3.6%. Verdict: the tape graded the multiple, not the business — an unfair grade on a clean print. Super Micro Computer — BEAT and FY raise on volume, with heavy fine print. Sales $19.9B (+298%) vs $16.26B; non-GAAP EPS $1.81 vs $1.23. Results are preliminary; ~$2.3B of catch-up revenue; operating cash flow -$434M; one customer a reported 44% of revenue. FY27 guided $72-82B (from $65-72B). After hours +7.2%. Verdict: the print is a beat, the reaction is generous; grade the finalized 10-Q first. All figures verified against the companies' primary releases (Nov 3, 2026). Reactions: Yahoo Finance extended-hours final bars, Nov 3, 2026. This information is for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

  3. 8h ago

    EARNINGS — Around the Horn: MPC, RACE, KDP, YUM, SU

    Five Tuesday reports, graded in the standing four steps — the print, the reaction, what the reaction is pricing, and the desk's verdict. MPC: adjusted EPS 26.93 vs 25.37 expected, refining margin 45.70 a barrel, closed down 0.7 percent — the rent was already in the price (Ethan, Energy). RACE: EPS 2.44 euros vs 2.37 expected and a second consecutive guidance raise, closed up 2.9 percent in New York (Dana, Consumer Discretionary). KDP: adjusted EPS 0.66 vs 0.62 expected but legacy EPS growth guidance narrowed to 3-5 percent, closed down 5.6 percent (Stan, Consumer Staples). YUM: adjusted EPS 1.56 vs 1.50 expected, Pizza Hut divestiture closed, Taco Bell comps down 4 percent on the cyclospora outbreak, closed down 0.4 percent (Dana). SU (after the close): adjusted operating EPS C3.97 vs C3.28 expected, record adjusted funds from operations of C6.7 billion, guidance ranges unchanged — so under the Revision Leaders model's Confirmed test (beat AND raise), tonight's print is NOT the entry ticket; Suncor stays in the Loaded sleeve, now its best-evidenced name (Ethan). All figures verified against the company releases; reactions as of the Tuesday, November 3, 2026 close, Suncor as of about 6:45 p.m. Eastern after-hours. Informational purposes only; not financial advice.

  4. 8h ago

    EARNINGS — Around the Horn: BKNG, AMGN, XYZ, TOST

    Four non-tech prints from Tuesday's after-hours slate, each graded in four steps: the print against consensus and the company's own guidance, the extended-hours stock reaction as of about 8 p.m. Eastern, how the print maps to guidance and the desk thesis, and the owning desk's verdict. Booking Holdings (Dana, Consumer Discretionary): reported revenue of $8.89B was cut by a $900M FTC-matter revenue reduction; adjusted revenue +9% to $9.8B, adjusted EPS $4.66 (+17%), room nights +7% and gross bookings +10% all beat the company's own guidance — but Q4 was guided soft (room nights +1-3%, adjusted EBITDA roughly flat). Stock -1.4% extended. Verdict: operations beat, guide and legal overhang own the tape. Amgen (Hannah, Health Care): revenue $10.4B (+8%) and non-GAAP EPS $6.45 both beat; full-year guidance raised (revenue $38.9-39.7B, non-GAAP EPS $22.90-23.70); six growth drivers +27% offset Prolia's -45%. Stock -1.4% extended despite the raise. Verdict: clean beat and raise; the tape shrugged. Block (Frank, Financials): gross profit $3.24B (+22%) beat its own $3.13B guide, adjusted EPS $1.13; third straight raise (FY gross profit $12.63B); transaction and loan losses +66% flagged. Stock +5.8% extended. Verdict: beat, tape has it right. Toast (Frank, Financials): recurring gross profit $642M and adjusted EBITDA $240M both beat the company's guide; full-year outlook raised; Q4 guide implies deceleration and CFO Elena Gomez steps away at year-end. Stock -3.8% extended. Verdict: print better than the reaction. Sources: company press releases and shareholder letters (Booking Holdings, Amgen via PR Newswire, Block shareholder letter/8-K, Toast via Business Wire), verified before scripting; reactions from the market feed.

  5. 11h ago

    DAILY MARKETS — Tue Nov 3: AMD's $17B Guide Ends the Chip Rout

    Election Day bounce on chips, AMD's blowout $17B guide after hours, hot JOLTS pushing the 10-year to 4.95%, oil whipsawed on Iran headlines, and Meta paying up for AI money.

  6. 12h ago

    EARNINGS — Around the Horn: SHOP, ETN, APO

    Around the Horn for the Tuesday, November 3, 2026 before-the-open reporters, hosted by Marco. SHOP - Shopify Inc. (Technology, Tom): verdict MISS on the metrics that matter. Revenue 3.742 billion dollars, up 32 percent, just short of roughly 3.76 billion consensus; gross merchandise volume 119.145 billion, up 29 percent, against about 120.1 billion expected; subscription revenue 836 million against about 850 million expected; merchant solutions 2.906 billion, up 35 percent; adjusted EPS 0.49 dollars against 0.47 expected; operating income 568 million, up 66 percent; free cash flow 816 million, a 22 percent margin. Fourth-quarter guidance: revenue growth low-thirties percent, gross profit growth high-twenties, operating expenses 29-30 percent of revenue - in line. Reaction: closed down 8.7 percent on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (full-session close, Yahoo chart API), against the S and P 500 up 0.4 percent, after falling more than 15 percent pre-market. Desk verdict on the reaction: direction fair, size overdone - the tape de-rated the multiple, not the business. ETN - Eaton Corp. plc (Industrials, Ivan): verdict BEAT with a guidance raise. Adjusted EPS a record 3.68 dollars against 3.54 consensus; GAAP EPS 2.77 dollars; sales a record 8.9 billion, up 28 percent, organic growth 19 percent; segment margins a record 25.3 percent; twelve-month rolling organic orders up 39 percent in Electrical Americas, 51 percent in Electrical Global, 20 percent in Aerospace; total backlog up 46 percent in Electrical and 33 percent in Aerospace. Full-year adjusted EPS guidance raised to 13.70-13.80 dollars with organic growth guidance raised to 13-15 percent; COL Group acquisition announced at about 810 million euros. Reaction: closed up 7.0 percent on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, against the S and P 500 up 0.4 percent. Desk verdict: fair, confirms the read. APO - Apollo Global Management, Inc. (Financials, Frank, with Victor, Private Markets): verdict MISS on the GAAP headline, record quarter on the operating lines. GAAP net loss 1.06 billion dollars, or 1.78 dollars per share, on about 3.42 billion of unrealized mark-to-market losses in Retirement Services; adjusted net income 1.29 billion, or 2.07 dollars per share; adjusted EPS excluding notable items 2.15 dollars against 2.19 expected; revenue 4.74 billion against about 5.79 billion expected; fee-related earnings a record 802 million, up 23 percent; origination a record 114 billion in the quarter, up 52 percent, 356 billion over twelve months; inflows 53 billion; assets under management 1.07 trillion, up 18 percent; dividend declared 0.5625 dollars per share, payable November 30. Guidance: not given. Reaction: closed down 4.9 percent on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, against the S and P 500 up 0.4 percent. Desk verdict: overdone on the operating business - the tape priced the marks, not the flywheel. Sources: company primary releases dated November 3, 2026 (Shopify 8-K and Globe Newswire release; Eaton Business Wire and SEC 8-K Exhibit 99; Apollo Globe Newswire release); consensus as carried in the releases coverage; reactions from the Yahoo chart API at production time. This information is for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

  7. 13h ago

    EARNINGS — TLN Talen Energy Q3 2026: The Cash Line Nearly Doubled

    Talen Energy (NASDAQ: TLN) reported Q3 2026 on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Revenue rose 63 percent to 1.327 billion dollars against roughly 1.30 billion expected; GAAP diluted EPS was 2.88 dollars and adjusted EPS 5.65 dollars, a miss driven by unrealized mark to market losses on commodity hedges and higher interest on acquisition debt. Adjusted EBITDA rose 84 percent to 669 million dollars and Adjusted Free Cash Flow rose 94 percent to 433 million, as generation more than doubled to 23.9 terawatt hours at a 75.4 percent capacity factor in the first full quarter including the Cornerstone gas fleet (Lawrenceburg, Waterford and Darby, about 2.6 gigawatts, acquired for 3.45 billion dollars). Talen narrowed and reaffirmed 2026 guidance and introduced 2027 guidance of 2.50 to 2.85 billion dollars of Adjusted EBITDA, about 26 percent growth at the midpoint with no new data center transaction assumed. The stock rose about 8 percent on November 3 (as of that afternoon) to near 359 dollars, still about 20 percent below its 449.84 dollar 52-week high, against a published consensus target of 458.69 dollars from 16 analysts. Sources: Talen Energy Q3 2026 earnings release (Globe Newswire, November 3, 2026) and the company's earnings call the same day; consensus and price data as of November 3, 2026. This episode is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

  8. 16h ago

    OPTIONS FLOW — The Cluster Tell in Midterm-Day Tech Calls

    A The Heat Map cluster-trigger episode, produced midday on Tuesday, November 3, 2026 (midterm election day) after two bullish flow classes printed in one session: (b) broad single-theme call buying — six mega-cap tech names with call prints at 10x volume/open interest or better and aggregate call premium above $10M each (NVDA $100.1M, META $84.3M, AAPL $53.7M, MSFT $31.0M, AMZN $19.3M, GOOGL $17.9M), at near-the-money strikes; and (e) concentration in the Nov 4 expiry, the first expiry after the vote (unusual call premium Nov 4-6: NVDA $47.1M, AAPL $40.3M, META $38.6M, MSFT $14.9M, GOOGL $9.9M, AMZN $5.7M). Also flagged: TLT/IEF rates complex ($7.04M combined unusual premium, repeated Nov 6 TLT lines), ^VIX call volume 236,337 at 3.6x its trailing median, and 12 Timeless names at 3x or more their trailing median premium. Caveats on the tape: midday partial-session data, no sweep/block or buy/sell classification in chain volume, deep in-the-money premium is largely intrinsic value, COT not evaluated (as of Tue Oct 27, unchanged), cash gauge flat. This information is for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.

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About

The Heat Map — brands, macro, trading ideas, long-term stock ideas, and research, from one expert team, always on. The Heat Map is the podcast from Eric's digital investment team — eleven sector experts, a chief macro strategist, and a marketing desk, led by Muse — tracking where the heat is across brands, sectors, and markets: the macro forces that move risk, trading ideas for right now, and long-term stock ideas built on deep research.

Information

  • Creator
    Eric
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    103
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 2026 Eric