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26/03/2020

HACE 5 DÍAS

Bitcoin & the Coming Wave of Money Printing | Arthur Hayes

Live from the Origin Summit, hosted by Story and Blockworks, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO of Maelstrom Arthur Hayes shares his macro view on the erosion of Fed independence, inevitable money printing, and how these forces intersect with crypto markets. He covers Bitcoin’s performance versus gold and stocks, the political choices around AI’s productivity boom, and why DeFi, stablecoins, and new decentralized trading models are at the heart of the next cycle. Enjoy! __ Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Origin Summit: https://www.originsummit.xyz/ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code SUPPLY200 for £200 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:50) Money Printing & Yield Curve Control (05:42) What Does this Mean for Bitcoin? (08:48) AI & the Debt Doom Loop (12:44) Favorite Crypto Themes & Innovations (13:48) Perp DEXes & Hyperliquid (18:16) Stablecoin Winners & Losers (21:32) Stablecoin Systemic Risk (23:30) AI, Intellectual Property, and Blockchain (24:47) Western vs. Asian Crypto Markets __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Supply Shock or Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

hace 5 días

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26 min
26 SEP

Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup

This week, we discuss the biggest risks to the economy, whether Mag7 is a bubble, surprisingly strong consumer data, the increasingly noisy housing and labor markets, risks around Fed policy and dollar liquidity, and why gold has been a cleaner macro hedge than Bitcoin. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CN8SRsPqdupjrs27C0k1PDRfvGLf8kS6/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:23) DAS London (04:29) Macro Outlook (06:17) Strong GDP Numbers (07:38) Understanding the New Economy (13:02) VanEck Ad (13:46) The Housing Market (19:25) Biggest Risks to the Economy (27:36) Market Structure Update (29:06) VanEck Ad (29:47) Market Structure Update (33:24) Is Mag7 a Bubble? (39:16) Inflation is the Plan & Problem (43:42) The Poison of Financialization (45:48) Breaking a Broken System (50:15) Gold Pump vs Crypto Slump (55:11) Protectionist Policies & the Dollar (01:05:50) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

26 sep

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1 h y 8 min
19 SEP

Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot | Weekly Roundup

This week, we discuss the Fed rate cut and dovish pivot, exacerbating the K-shaped economy, why the dollar could be bottoming, and why gold helps Quinn sleep at night. We also dig into Bitcoin’s correlation to gold, the hollowing out of public markets by private credit, and more. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Origin Summit https://www.originsummit.xyz/ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BX16NXlhxAHHCXiWc9o1EJ2-S20K-sZF/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (03:38) Origin Summit (04:18) Why Are We Cutting Again? (11:30) Cutting Into a Hot Economy? (13:06) VanEck Ad (13:50) Cutting Into a Hot Economy? (17:16) What’s Next for the Dollar? (21:39) Market Structure & Asset Allocation (26:47) Is the Gold Trade Still Alive? (28:28) VanEck Ad (29:13) Bitcoin vs Gold (33:52) Private vs Public Markets (48:22) Generational and Class Politics (50:50) Optimism for the Future — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

19 sep

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53 min
11 SEP

Bitcoin Civil War: Core vs. Knots Over Arbitrary Data | Shinobi

In this episode, Rizzo & Shinobi from Bitcoin Magazine dive into the escalating dispute between Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Knots, unpacking the ideological clash over arbitrary data in transactions, node vs. miner dynamics, and the legacy of the Fork Wars. They explore whether Bitcoin should be a neutral settlement layer or a strictly financial system, the technical realities of relay and consensus rules, and the rising social tensions around developer authority and dissent. Enjoy — Follow Shinobi: https://x.com/Brian_trollz Follow Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_ Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Supply Shock Telegram: https://t.me/+SpmLg6P_QcgxNDcx Supply Shock Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock Supply Shock Survey: https://bitcoinhistorynl.beehiiv.com/forms/979475d9-fb4b-4c13-99af-5037dd5718c6 — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code SUPPLY100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:31) Bitcoin Core Just Doesn’t Understand (07:24) Bitcoin's Purpose & Transaction Types (09:56) Core Developers' Stance on Network Changes (14:39) Arguments Against Arbitrary Data on Bitcoin (20:01) Dissent Impact on the Network (25:40) Closing Thoughts on Bitcoin Development (27:44) Understanding Bitcoin as a Settlement Layer (28:52) The Rise & Fall of Ordinals & NFTs on Bitcoin (30:41) The Fork War Consensus & Bitcoin's Evolution (32:38) Node Supremacy and Economic Relevance (35:03) The UASF & Economic Relevance (37:19) The Role of Developers & Community Consensus (49:14) Educating the Next Generation of Bitcoiners (50:52) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Supply Shock is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Bitcoin #Crypto #SupplyShock

11 sep

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52 min
12 SEP

The Data Is Screaming Two-Speed Economy | Weekly Roundup

This week, Quinn and Tyler cover lighter-than-expected PPI data, the Fed’s shifting focus from inflation to labor, deep labor-market revisions showing a “two-speed” U.S. economy, surging AI/data-center CapEx alongside weakening Main Street, and the concentration risks of mega-cap stocks and buybacks. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ogspUIuKxnHZh7REVA9tKpo7tyPCA52W/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:40) DAS London (02:59) Inflation Update (08:15) No High-Yield Problem (12:11) Rate Cuts vs Inflation (13:40) VanEck Ad (14:24) Rate Cuts vs Inflation (15:40) Problems in the Labor Market (20:35) Small-Caps & Productivity Boom (23:05) Fiscal Dominance & Inflation (26:46) VanEck Ad (27:27) SPX Implied Vol & Market Structure (32:12) AI Boom & CapEx (38:24) Bipolar Market Outcomes (42:17) Centralization vs Diversification (49:11) What’s Next for Markets? (52:56) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

12 sep

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55 min
22 AGO

No, We Have Not Topped Featuring Roshun Patel | Weekly Roundup

Happy Friday! On this week’s Roundup, Yano and Santi are joined by Ro to dive in and explore the signals, indicators and metrics that might or might not point to a top of the cycle. From Chamath’s SPAC, borrowing and lending numbers, Kanye meme coins, NFTs and more all provide unique insights into the potential frothy Q4 ahead of us. -- Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from David Canellis. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts -- Follow Roshun: https://x.com/roshunpatel Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod -- Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh -- GEODNET is the world’s largest RTK network, delivering real-time, centimeter-level precision for drones, robots, farmers, and first responders. Recognized by the U.S. Congress, this blockchain-powered network supports mission-critical applications across a wide range of industries. Discover how GEODNET is changing the world: [https://geodnet.com] -- Get up to speed on the biggest stories in crypto each week. In five minutes. Get the Bitwise Weekly CIO Memo delivered directly to your inbox at bitwiseinvestments.com/ciomemo/empire -- "Mantle is pioneering ""Blockchain for Banking"" as a revolutionary new category that sits at the intersection of TradFi and web3. Key elements for Mantle as the ""Blockchain for Banking"": - Transactions posted to the blockchain - Compatibility with TradFi rails - Integrated DeFi features UR, built by Mantle, is the first real-world example: an on-chain money app offering Swiss IBANs and unified access to fiat (EUR, CHF, USD, RMB) and crypto — bringing crypto into everyday finance. Mantle Network, the access layer — transforms Mantle Network into a purpose-built vertical platform — the blockchain for banking — that enables financial services on-chain. Mantle leads the establishment of Blockchain for Banking as the next frontier. Follow Mantle on X (@Mantle_Official) for the latest updates on Mantle as the 'Blockchain for Banking'." -- Citrea is the first zero-knowledge rollup to enhance the capabilities of Bitcoin blockspace and enable Bitcoin applications (₿apps). Citrea is optimistically verified by Bitcoin, offering the most Bitcoin-secured and native way to extend BTC’s utility to DeFi. Learn more about Citrea: https://citrea.xyz/?utm_source=bellcurve&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=website_promo Follow Citrea on X/Twitter for the latest on its journey to mainnet: https://x.com/citrea_xyz -- Chapters: (00:52) Intro (04:01) Top Indicators Explored (25:33) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (27:02) Lending Markets & Leverage (45:55) Private Markets (54:38) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise) (56:00) Ads (Mantle,Citrea) (57:36) Overlooked Sectors (01:12:30) Content Recs — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

22 ago

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1 h y 17 min
25 JUL

Everything You Need to Know About Crypto Treasury Companies With Jeff Park | Roundup

In this episode, we’re joined by Bitwise’s Head of Alpha Strategies, Jeff Park! We explore the financial engineering behind Bitcoin treasury companies, focusing on Michael Saylor’s capital structure innovations. We discuss convertible debt, preferred equity, market demand dynamics, options chains, in-kind contributions, tax and regulatory implications, and the sustainability of these treasury vehicles. Thanks for tuning in! -- Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. -- EigenLayer just launched EigenCloud - the infrastructure powering crypto's "cloud era." Like AWS transformed the internet, EigenCloud gives any developer cloud-grade programmability with crypto-grade verifiability. EIGEN stakers earn from the entire verifiable economy flywheel. Follow @eigenlayer on X to learn more. This is not financial advice. Investing in blockchain-based assets like the EIGEN token involves significant risk, including the potential loss of your entire investment. By participating, you are agreeing to EigenCloud’s terms and conditions apply. -- Follow Jeff: https://x.com/dgt10011 Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/im_manderson Follow Vance: https://twitter.com/pythianism Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_ Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3R1D1D9 Subscribe on Apple: https://apple.co/3pQTfmD Subscribe on Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3cpKZXH Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ Join the Bell Curve Telegram group: https://t.me/+nzyxAvQ0Xxc3YTEx -- Timestamps: (0:00) Introduction (1:49) The Convertible Debt Market (9:44) Preferred Shares vs Converts (12:19) Ads (Arkham & Eigen) (13:10) The Demand Side (21:35) How is Saylor's Strategy Possible? (30:47) Ads (Arkham & Eigen) (32:24) What Is The Investment Bank's Role? (37:45) Bitcoin Treasury Companies Abroad (45:38) What Are Treasury Companies Allowed To Do Onchain? (48:29) Treasury Company Financial Metrics (51:44) The Best Path For Ethereum Treasury Companies (56:56) Bitmine's Options Chain (1:00:05) The Impact of In-kind Contributions (1:03:56) The Doom Loop (1:08:35) Comparing Treasury Vehicles and GBTC (1:11:47) How Do Treasury Companies Impact Demand? -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Bell Curve is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mike, Jason, Michael, Vance and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

25 jul

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1 h y 15 min
9 JUL

The Only Assets That Beat Fiat Debasement | Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel

In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their “Everything Code” framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed over time, while gold just preserves purchasing power. They discuss the societal and economic implications of AI replacing human labor, the end of traditional recessions, why liquidity will keep increasing to roll debts, and how this cycle could mirror or exceed 2017’s asset booms. Enjoy! __ Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI Follow Julien: https://x.com/BittelJulien Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:50 Big Macro Picture 05:52 Demographics & Debt 10:36 Liquidity & Real Returns 13:43 What is the Endgame? 14:33 Ads (Aptos) 17:49 The Everything Code 20:43 Shifting from QE to Bills 25:12 Financial Conditions 29:40 What’s Driving Gold? 31:42 2017 on Steroids 36:00 Ads (Aptos) 36:52 Nothing Stops This Train 38:32 Removing Recession Risk 44:27 Immigration 46:42 What Happens Next? 55:04 Resurgence of Religion 58:27 When Banana Zone? __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

9 jul

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1 h y 11 min
25 MAR

The Secret To Maintaining Dollar Dominance | Joseph Wang & Austin Campbell LIVE @ DAS

In this episode, Joseph Wang and Austin Campbell join the show to discuss their overview of macro after the latest FOMC meeting, the EM-ification of the United States, and how stablecoins play into the continuation of US dollar hegemony. We also delve into support for stablecoin legislation, the case against the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & US sovereign wealth fund, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12 Follow Austin: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx — Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125 — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:11) Macro & Crypto Colliding (01:09) Overview of Macro and FOMC Meeting (04:25) US EM-ification (09:39) Ledger Ad (10:23) What is Good Fiscal & Monetary Policy? (13:55) Stablecoins and US Treasury Demand (19:01) Stablecoin Legislation (23:44) Reinventing Money Market Funds (24:29) Ledger Ad (32:58) Strategic Bitcoin Reserve & Sovereign Wealth Fund (36:54) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

25 mar

•

39 min
15 AGO

Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup

This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy! — Follow Brent: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HpY5-OGzqa3t0tVz1a-2RnUXCI6BbZU5/view?usp=sharing — This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): vaneck.com/SMHXFelix — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:28) Inflation Heating Up? (07:45) Brent's Macro Outlook (12:08) VanEck Ad (12:53) Should the Fed Cut? (16:01) Time for a Correction? (28:58) VanEck Ad (29:38) Dampening of Animal Spirits (33:29) Going Full Ponzi? (37:15) The Imperial Circle (41:31) Is the Dollar Milkshake Still Intact? (48:45) Gold & Gold Miners (51:13) Bifurcated Economy (55:29) AI Boom Bearing Fruit? (58:41) What Does Trump Really Want? (01:01:20) The Younger Generation Is Screwed (01:04:12) Stablecoins & the US Empire (01:07:06) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

15 ago

•

1 h y 8 min

Blockworks is an information platform that sits at the center of the crypto industry. Institutional-grade data powers actionable research, trusted news, alpha-driven insights, and world-class events. The result is transparency and confidence. Blockworks enable investors, operators, and institutions to see past the noise, make better decisions, and drive the industry forward.