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20/08/2024

Nate Silver on the Art of Risking Everything

Most humans are cautious by nature. We naturally like to do what’s comfortable and safe. But comfortable and safe don’t usually lead to. . . well, success. In fact, the most successful people in the world share something in common: They love risk. That’s true of the best poker players, hedge fund managers, venture capitalists, and crypto traders. All of these people consider statistics; they embrace uncertainty; and they make bold predictions that ultimately pay off for themselves—and sometimes for humanity. How do they do it? Our guest today, Nate Silver, has a theory on what drives successful people, how they think, and how they achieve enormous success—or, at times, catastrophic failure. He just wrote an entire book about it. On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything analyzes these types of people and the principles that guide their risky decision-making—which, he argues, is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy. Nate, one of the most sophisticated thinkers on risk and uncertainty, is a statistician, sports analyst, professional poker player, and the founder of FiveThirtyEight, a website that revolutionized political reporting with its data-driven election predictions. Today, Nate discusses why it’s important to take more risks, and how he sees the current election playing out. If you hear statistics and data and probability and analytics and roll your eyes, we get it. But this is a conversation that goes beyond all that. Nate explains what frustrates him about his critics, why he is happy to no longer be affiliated with FiveThirtyEight, and how his biggest passion—poker—helped him become one of the world’s most famous prognosticators. If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to thefp.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. Header 6: The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

20/08/2024

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59 min
03/09/2024

Matt Taibbi on the Global Censorship-Industrial Complex

In the past few weeks, there’s been an increasing number of threats to freedom of speech around the world. In France, authorities arrested Telegram CEO Pavel Durov for failing to adequately moderate content and prevent criminal activity on his platform. In the UK, since the outbreak of anti-immigration riots, police have arrested individuals merely for posting comments online. The Labour-led government has suggested expanding measures to remove “legal but harmful” content. In Brazil, President Lula’s administration has proposed new regulations requiring social media companies to monitor and remove “harmful content,” and a Brazilian Supreme Court justice just banned X altogether in the country. The ruling came after the platform missed a deadline to name a new legal representative there. From Hungary to Pakistan, the right to speak your mind, particularly on the internet, is more precarious than ever. Even in the United States, with our free speech rights enshrined in the Constitution, polls suggest an entire generation has grown up thinking it should be illegal to say something inaccurate or hateful. Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz said as much: “There’s no guarantee to free speech on misinformation or hate speech, and especially around our democracy.” So how did we get here? And, where is this all going? Today, Michael sits down with the intrepid journalist Matt Taibbi, who knows this issue inside out. When The Free Press launched, he reported the Twitter Files with Bari Weiss, and together they exposed how government agencies had pressured Twitter to censor undesirable information, including skepticism of Covid lockdowns and opposition to Covid-related public school closures. In this conversation, Matt and Michael talk about what’s happening in Europe, Brazil, and here in the U.S. They discuss the factors that precipitated the so-called “misinformation wars,” from 9/11 to Brexit and Trump’s election, that convinced elites of the need to enforce restrictions on speech. And they talk about why these efforts are doomed to backfire. If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to thefp.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

03/09/2024

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44 min
19/09/2024

Hezbollah's Pagers and Walkie-Talkies Explode. Now What?

On Tuesday, hundreds of encrypted pagers in Lebanon and Syria began exploding at the same time. Lebanon’s health minister said Tuesday that at least nine people were killed and 2,800 were injured. The tiny country’s hospitals were overwhelmed with patients suffering from burn wounds, blown-up hands, and groin injuries. The pagers belonged to members of the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah. Then, just 24 hours later, a second wave of thousands more explosions again went off simultaneously in Lebanon: This time not only pagers, but also walkie-talkies all belonging to Hezbollah terrorists. It was the stuff of spy movies—an incredibly sophisticated and precise operation unlike anything we’ve seen before. And while Israel has not officially taken responsibility, this kind of imaginative sabotage has Mossad written all over it. Hezbollah has vowed retaliation against Israel. This comes after almost a year of Hezbollah firing rockets into northern Israel. Since October 7, the constant barrage of attacks has forced some 100,000 Israelis to flee their homes on Israel’s northern border. Nearly a year later, they still cannot return. All of this, of course, is part of a much larger, more dangerous game being played across the region—Israel’s shadow war with Iran, its most formidable adversary. For years, Israel and Iran have avoided direct conflict, preferring to fight through Iran’s regional surrogates—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen. All of them fueled by Iranian money, weapons, and ideology. Will Israel’s alleged tactical brilliance this week—jokingly dubbed as Operation Below the Belt on social media—deter Hezbollah from continuing to launch the missiles and rockets into Israel that make it impossible for Israeli citizens to return home? Or is military intervention—a ground invasion—inevitable? As Eli Lake wrote in The Free Press today, “Israel cannot defeat its enemies by waging war only in the shadows.” Today, I sat down with journalist and Pulitzer Prize finalist Dexter Filkins to talk about all of it. Dexter has been covering wars in the Middle East for decades for The New York Times and The New Yorker, and has been called “the premier combat journalist of his generation.” In our conversation, we discussed the state of the war, political divisions within Lebanon, Iran’s nuclear program, the viability of a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians, and the difficulties for the United States of disengaging from Middle East conflicts. If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to TheFP.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

19/09/2024

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56 min
14 OCT

The Hostage Release and the Future of Gaza

At 3:22 a.m. ET on October 7, 2023, Bari texted her producer: “Candace, there’s war in Israel.” At that moment, Hamas men still roamed southern Israel, and the details were far from clear. What we knew was that Israel had been attacked and that videos were beginning to make their way from Telegram to X: scenes of dozens of Palestinian terrorists breaking through the security fence and rushing into Israeli territory; clips of Hamas militants, with AK-47s slung over their chests, driving white pickup trucks through the streets of southern Israel; blurry videos of Israelis running for their lives in roundabouts and fields. We had no idea what was about to unfold. We did not know yet that 251 Israelis would be kidnapped that day, including more than 30 children. We did not know yet that what was unfolding was the worst mass murder of Jews since the Holocaust—only this time streaming live on social media. We immediately started bringing you firsthand accounts here on Honestly. You might remember a pregnant woman named Shaked told us about 11 family members who were taken hostage, including her niece, 3, and nephew, 8. Or how two survivors of the Nova Music Festival, Amit and Chen, watched the murder of their friends. We talked to a mother whose daughter was killed at the music festival. And a grandmother who hid in her safe room for hours with her 10-day-old grandson as terrorists shot at the door. And we spoke to a father named Jon Polin, whose son, Hersh, was kidnapped. Little did we know that the entire world would soon know his name. Anyone who bore witness to the evil of that day, and to the horrific tragedy of the war that has followed, prayed that the hostages—the living and the dead—would finally be brought home. For Israelis, that rallying cry—Bring them home—was at the center of their psyche, their longing, their hope for the last two years. And then yesterday, 738 days later, the remaining 20 living hostages came home as part of President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan. Yesterday, we spent moments throughout the day glued to our phones, tears streaming down our cheeks, watching the videos of these freed men running into the embrace of their mothers and fathers and sisters and brothers—and in some cases even to their little children—after more than two unimaginable years in Hamas captivity. As Matti Friedman wrote in The FP: “An unfamiliar mood spread like a shift in the weather: relief and optimism. . . . The Israelis who rallied over the past two years under the banner ‘Bring Them Home,’ and whose energies kept the hostages and their families in headlines in Israel and abroad through two dark and often hopeless years, allowed themselves to smile and cheer.” We are under no illusions about what comes next. Yesterday began only phase 1 of Trump’s peace plan (Hamas still holds many of the deceased hostages, which is a breach of the agreement). And serious—perhaps intractable—challenges lay ahead. There are many, many outstanding questions. As Free Press Middle East analyst Haviv Rettig Gur said, “Everything that matters for Gaza’s future is in phase 2 and beyond.” To try to begin answering many of those questions—and to reflect on this historic moment and what it means for Israel and the world—Free Press producer Rafaela Siewert hosted a livestream yesterday that we want to play here for you today. She was joined by former Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren; The Free Press’s Matti Friedman and Haviv Rettig Gur; and Nimrod Palmach, who ran into battle on October 7, 2023 of his own accord. And Siewert also speaks to Rachel and Jon Goldberg-Polin—the parents of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, who was kidnapped on October 7 and murdered in Gaza after over 300 days in Hamas captivity. Still, Rachel and Jon woke up every single day for the last two years and fought—in public and around the world—for the return of every last one of the remaining souls to come home. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

14 oct

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1 h y 60 min
10/12/2024

Marc Andreessen on AI, Tech, Censorship, and Dining with Trump

Democrats once seemed to have a monopoly on Silicon Valley. Perhaps you remember when Elon Musk bought Twitter and posted pictures of cabinets at the old office filled with “#StayWoke” T-shirts. But just as the country is realigning itself along new ideological and political lines, so is the tech capital of the world. In 2024, many of the Valley’s biggest tech titans came out with their unabashed support for Donald Trump. There was, of course, Elon Musk. . . but also WhatsApp co-founder Jan Koum; Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, who run the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini; VCs such as Shaun Maguire, David Sacks, and Chamath Palihapitiya; Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale; Oculus and Anduril founder Palmer Luckey; hedge fund manager Bill Ackman; and today’s Honestly guest, one of the world’s most influential investors and the man responsible for bringing the internet to the masses—Marc Andreessen. Marc’s history with politics is a long one—but it was always with the Democrats. He supported Democrats including Bill Clinton in 1996, Al Gore in 2000, and John Kerry in 2004. He endorsed Barack Obama in 2008 and then Hillary Clinton in 2016. But over the summer, he announced that he was going to endorse and donate to Trump. Public records show that Marc donated at least $4.5 million to pro-Trump super PACs. Why? Because he believed that the Biden administration had, as he tells us in this conversation, “seething contempt” for tech, and that this election was existential for AI, crypto, and start-ups in America. Marc got his start as the co-creator of Mosaic, the first widely used web browser, which is said to have launched the internet boom. He then co-founded Netscape, which became the most popular web browser in the ’90s, and sold it to AOL in 1999 for $4.2 billion. He later became an angel investor and board member at Facebook. And in 2006, when everyone told Mark Zuckerberg to sell Facebook to Yahoo for $1 billion, Marc was the only voice saying: don’t. (Today, Facebook has a market cap of $1.4 trillion.) He now runs a venture capital firm with Ben Horowitz, where they invest in small start-ups that they think have potential to become billion-dollar unicorns. And their track record is pretty spot-on: They invested in Airbnb, Coinbase, Instagram, Instacart, Pinterest, Slack, Reddit, Lyft, and Oculus—to name a few of the unicorns. (And for full disclosure: Marc and his wife were small seed investors in The Free Press.) Marc has built a reputation as someone who can recognize “the next big thing” in tech and, more broadly, in our lives. He has been called the “chief ideologist of the Silicon Valley elite,” a “cultural tastemaker,” and even “Silicon Valley’s resident philosopher-king.” Today, Bari and Marc discuss his reasons for supporting Trump—and the vibe shift in Silicon Valley; why he thinks we’ve been living under soft authoritarianism over the last decade and why it’s finally cracking; why he’s so confident in Elon Musk and his band of counter-elites; how President Biden tried to kill tech and control AI; why he thinks AI censorship is “a million times more dangerous” than social media censorship; why technologists are the ones to restore American greatness; what Trump serves for dinner; why Marc has spent about half his time at Mar-a-Lago since November 5; and why he thinks it’s morning in America. If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to TheFP.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. This show is proudly sponsored by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE). FIRE believes free speech makes free people. Make your tax-deductible donation today at www.thefire.org/honestly. Go to groundnews.com/Honestly to get 50% off the unlimited access Vantage plan and unlock world-wide perspectives on today’s biggest news stories. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

10/12/2024

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1 h y 44 min
29/08/2024

How Whole Foods Revolutionized American Eating Habits

John Mackey, co-founder of Whole Foods Market, is one of the most consequential American entrepreneurs of our time. Whole Foods began in 1980 as a small hippie health food store in Austin, Texas. Under Mackey’s leadership, it grew into the largest organic foods supermarket chain in the United States, selling to Amazon in 2017 for nearly $14 billion. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the company revolutionized the food industry, mainstreaming health-consciousness for a mass market. Despite the company’s crunchy progressive brand, Mackey is a staunch capitalist and a steadfast defender of free markets. He popularized the term “conscious capitalism,” which marries capitalism and social responsibility, and and emphasizesinges the role of businesses in creating a sustainable and ethical impact on society at large. Today, a conversation about what it takes to build a company like Whole Foods, what it is like to have enormous wealth, the role of unions in the American economy, and why he kicked his own father off the board of the company. And to read Mackey’s full story, check out his new book, The Whole Story. If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to thefp.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

29/08/2024

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40 min
02/11/2024

Trump and the Art of the Bullshitter

B******t is an American tradition. Think the theatrics of P.T. Barnum, miracle products sold ad nauseam on television in the 1980s and, of course, politicians. Who can forget President Bill Clinton saying “It depends upon what the meaning of the word is is” during his grand jury testimony in the Monica Lewinsky scandal? And then there’s Donald Trump. He presents as a man with no fact-checking filter, someone happily buying his own convenient b******t. That’s not quite the same thing as lying. That isn’t to say Trump doesn’t lie. He’s a politician, after all. But he exists outside the binary of truth and lies. It’s the netherworld of flimflam, hyperbole, sales pitches, and ad copy delivered with all the quiet dignity of a wet T-shirt contest. Donald Trump is a very modern artist, weaving a barrage of anecdotes, fake and real statistics, gossip, and memes into a nebulous and suggestive species of patter. Democrats have tried to paint Trump as an American Hitler, a Russian agent, a man consumed with evil and hatred. But what they fail to understand is that Trump’s casual relationship to the truth is an echo of past politicians. He is hardly the first bullshitter to ascend to the White House; he’s just the best ever to do it. He paints a picture of a reality he would like us to see, not as it really is. In this respect, Trump is the crack cocaine variant of many of his predecessors. Ronald Reagan was a folksy, sentimental bullshitter, a president as a Hallmark greeting card. Bill Clinton was a slick bullshitter, perfect for spinning stories at the dawn of the cable news era. Today, Eli Lake explores the soft spot that Americans have for bullshitters like Trump, and their disdain for liars like Richard Nixon. He argues that if you want to understand why Trump may be on the verge of winning the White House again, you have to reckon with our country’s relationship to the pungent brown stuff. It pervades everything from our economy to our culture. Bullshit is dangerous when it comes to science. But in politics, bullshit is sadly essential. If you liked what you heard from Honestly, the best way to support us is to go to TheFP.com and become a Free Press subscriber today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

02/11/2024

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40 min
10/09/2024

World War II and the Rise of Anti-History

Tucker Carlson is perhaps the country’s most influential conservative commentator; his eponymous podcast is routinely among the most downloaded shows on the internet. Despite his endless fulminations against the mainstream media, Carlson has an impeccable mainstream media pedigree. He’s hit for the cycle on cable news, having hosted shows on Fox, MSNBC, and CNN. After he was fired from Fox News in 2023, under circumstances that are still hotly disputed, Carlson quickly reconstituted his career on his own—free of corporate shackles, with no institutional guardrails, and with a professed willingness to explore topics that his former mainstream media colleagues wouldn’t touch. Last week on his show, he did just that, airing an interview with a man most people in the mainstream won’t touch: a podcaster named Darryl Cooper, who Carlson called “the most important historian in the United States.” In reality, Cooper is an amateur historian with no publishing record—no books, no academic articles. He produces a popular history podcast called Martyr Made, in which he does deep dives into subjects like the Israel-Palestine conflict, the cult of Reverend Jim Jones, and the trials of Jeffrey Epstein. He has previously described his personal politics as those of a “non-racist fascist.” On Carlson’s show, Cooper demonstrated some of those fascist tendencies when he identified Winston Churchill—not Adolf Hitler—as the “chief villain” of World War II. He wasn’t a hero at all, Cooper argued, but a “psychopath” who forced Nazi Germany into a war that it didn’t want. And what of the Holocaust? Cooper doesn’t speak of Jewish victims, but vaguely of “prisoners of war" who the Nazis “just threw. . . into camps, and millions of people ended up dead.” In September 1941, a mere week after Nazi troops occupied the Ukrainian capital of Kiev, that city’s Jews were ordered to congregate for “resettlement.” Under threat of severe punishment, they obliged. . . and were loaded into trucks to be transported a short distance to Babi Yar, a ravine just north of the city. In a two-day orgy of violence, 33,000 Jews ended up dead. Innocents, not prisoners of war; children forced to lie on top of those pushed into the pit before them, then executed with a bullet in the back of the head. This is how they ended up dead. Tucker Carlson, who has the ear of millions of conservatives, including Donald Trump, and who secured a prime time speaking spot at the Republican National Convention, said nothing in response to Cooper’s revisionism. No pushback. Not an arched eyebrow. Just unalloyed praise for an extremist autodidact, America’s “best” historian. Cooper defended himself on Twitter by assuring his critics that Hitler was indeed desperate to make peace and was also willing to “work with the other powers to reach an acceptable solution to the Jewish problem.” Jewish problem was not in quotes. When another user pointed this out, Cooper responded: “Was there not a problem involving the Jews in Europe at the time?” Hitler apologia and antisemitism packaged as brave historical inquiry is not new. We’ve heard versions of these arguments from extremists on the left and right for decades. But why is there a sudden resurgence of these odious ideas on the American right? Today, we talk to Victor Davis Hanson to help us answer this question. Hanson is a classicist and historian, the author of two dozen books, including the critically acclaimed The Second World Wars: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won. And for years, Hanson was a weekly guest on Tucker Carlson’s television show. We discuss his relationship with Carlson, the accuracy and derivation of Darryl Cooper’s claims about the Second World War, and why so-called “anti-elitism” often drifts into antisemitism. If you want to learn more, read Bari Weiss on the rise of anti-history here. If you liked what you heard, the best way to support us is to go to thefp.com and become a subscriber. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

10/09/2024

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1 h y 11 min
30 SEP

How One Man Overcame His Autism

Leland Vittert is one of America’s most recognizable television correspondents. You’ll know his face from years of frontline reporting in places like Egypt, Libya, Israel, and Ukraine. You may have followed his tumultuous exit from Fox News in 2021, after clashing with the network over its coverage of Donald Trump—and then his redemption arc, becoming the host of On Balance and the chief Washington anchor at NewsNation. But what you might not know is that Leland is autistic. He just wrote a book about it, called Born Lucky: A Dedicated Father, a Grateful Son, and My Journey with Autism. In it, Leland explains that he didn’t talk until age 3, was born severely cross-eyed, and struggled with basic concepts like eye contact, humor, conversation cues, and social rules. Middle school and high school were nothing short of hell. So how did the kid we just described go from, as he says, “socially lost” to one of America’s most recognizable and charismatic voices? Training. Relentless, nonstop work. His father knew the world wouldn’t change for Leland—Leland would have to change for the world. It is a moving memoir about how Leland—and most notably, his father—worked to “beat” his autism. You’ll have to read it to understand how. Leland was diagnosed about 40 years ago. Since then, conversation has shifted dramatically—and so have rates of diagnoses. In the 1980s, about one in 1,000 American children were diagnosed with autism. Today, it’s one in 31. The questions of what causes autism and how we treat it have become so politicized that the conversation has left people either resentful, anxious, confused, or scared. And most critically, still without answers. Born Lucky is landing at an especially interesting moment given that the Trump administration has put the topic of autism at center stage. Just last week, Trump held a press conference where he alleged that there was a link between the active ingredient in Tylenol and autism, and told mothers not to take the pain reliever and fever reducer and instead “tough it out.” That’s among the many things Leland and I talk about in this fascinating conversation. Header 6: The Free Press earns a commission from any purchases made through all book links in this article. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

30 sep

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1 h y 33 min
16 ABR

The Opium War: The Original Trade War

It’s been two weeks since President Donald Trump declared war on the global economic system his predecessors painstakingly built up since 1945. Then he partially reversed course, paused most of the tariffs, and focused on China. In this episode, we dive into the last time the world’s most populous country was in a trade war with the world’s richest country. What do the British Empire’s Opium Wars of the 1800s tell us about America’s pending economic divorce with China? Go to groundnews.com/BreakingHistory to get 40% off the unlimited access Vantage plan and stay fully informed on today’s biggest news stories. Buy tickets for the first SAPIR Debate: “Is Donald Trump Good for the Jews?” at sapirjournal.org/sapirdebate. Producers: Alex Miller, Poppy Damon and Bobby Moriarty Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

16 abr

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52 min

The most interesting conversations in American life happen in private. This show brings them out of the closet. Stories no one else is telling and conversations with the most fascinating people in the country, every week from The Free Press, hosted by former New York Times and Wall Street Journal journalist Bari Weiss.

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SOCIEDAD Y CULTURA
Listen to our new series, Spiral: Murder in Detroit, out now. Free Press reporter Frannie Block investigates the murder of a beloved community leader. The Free Press Investigates brings you gripping, deeply reported stories you can't find anywhere else—and the investigations others won’t dare to cover. You can also listen to our first series, The Witch Trials of J.K. Rowling.

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SOCIEDAD Y CULTURA
Fewer of us than ever are reading books for pleasure. Shilo Brooks is on a mission to change that. Old School is a new podcast from The Free Press about great books and how reading them can make us stronger, better men. The show features intimate conversations with fascinating men—from fitness gurus to philosophers—about the books that shaped their lives. New episodes out every Thursday. Read with us: https://bookshop.org/lists/old-school-with-shilo-brooks

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LITERATURA
Sometimes the news moves so fast, you have to look closely to know if you’ve seen it before. And that’s what this show is about. Breaking History breaks down the news, by breaking down history. We cover everything from LBJ and the Roman Republic to Donald Trump and the chaos at Columbia. This twice a month show from The Free Press delivers the best historians, authors, and reporters by mining the archives of human experience to figure out the present. George Santayana wrote, “Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” Tune in to Breaking History to resist the repetition.

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HISTORIA
Conversations with Coleman is where deep thinkers and curious minds meet for sharp, surprising, and unfiltered chats. Hosted by Coleman Hughes, writer, thinker, and guy who asks the questions other people dodge - this podcast isn’t about debating. It’s about discovery. Politics, philosophy, race, culture, science: it’s all fair game. If you're done with hot takes and hungry for real-talk, come join the conversation.

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FILOSOFÍA