Deciding with Confidence: How to Avoid Overconfidence & Make Smarter Choices with Don Moore | Ep.178 REPLAY

Are you as good at making decisions as you think you are? 🤔

In this replay of the Decidedly Podcast, we sit down with repeat guest Don Moore, UC Berkeley professor and author of Perfectly Confident and Decision Leadership, to unpack the hidden dangers of overconfidence and overprecision in business, investing, parenting, and everyday life.

You’ll learn:
✅ What the Dunning–Kruger effect really means (and how to spot it in yourself)
✅ Why most people are too sure about their decisions — and what that costs them
✅ How probabilistic thinking can sharpen your choices in business and beyond
✅ The difference between confidence that fuels success vs. confidence that blinds you
✅ Real-world examples: from parenting choices to market predictions to AI hallucinations

If you’ve ever wondered why smart people still make bad decisions — and how to avoid being one of them — this conversation is packed with actionable wisdom.

⁠⁠SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE WEEKLY NEWSLETTER⁠⁠

CHAPTERS

00:00 – Intro: Defeating bad decision-making in life & business

02:00 – Why new parents are overconfident

05:30 – The Dunning-Kruger effect in parenting and beyond

07:40 – What is over-precision, and why does it matter?

12:20 – The dangers of overconfidence in business and investing

16:55 – Why successful people struggle with decision-making

19:20 – The power of having language for decision-making biases

21:45 – How thinking in probabilities leads to better choices

24:05 – Market predictions, uncertainty, and decision paralysis

26:20 – How hobbies and competition keep us humble

28:50 – The behaviors that make people more (or less) overconfident

31:05 – The surprising gift of criticism

33:25 – Parenting, teenage rebellion, and overconfidence

36:50 – Overconfidence in parenting decisions

39:10 – Avoiding regret and learning from imperfect decisions

41:20 – Why most people misinterpret their financial wins

43:45 – Is AI overconfident? The risk of machine-generated certainty

46:00 – The problem with certainty in AI, investing, and life

48:30 – Why demanding 100% certainty keeps you stuck

50:30 – What Sanger has learned from hosting Decidedly

55:10 – The importance of embracing uncertainty in business and life

57:35 – Don’s top decision-making tip for business owners

57:47 – Where to connect with Don Moore

58:16 – Key Takeaways

59:29 – Message from the Producer

CONNECT WITH US

⁠⁠www.decidedlypodcast.com⁠⁠

⁠Watch this episode on YouTube⁠

Subscribe on ⁠⁠YouTube⁠

Join us on ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠: @decidedlypodcast

Join us on ⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠

Shawn’s ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠: @shawn_d_smith

Sanger’s ⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠: @sangersmith 

SANGER’S BOOK:⁠⁠A Life Rich with Significance: Transforming Your Wealth to Meaningful Impact⁠⁠

SHAWN’S BOOK: ⁠⁠Plateau Jumping: What to Change When Change Is What You Want⁠⁠

MAKING A FINANCIAL DECISION?

At ⁠⁠Decidedly Wealth Management⁠⁠, we focus on decision-making as the foundational element of success, in our effort to empower families to purposefully apply their wealth to fulfill their values and build a thriving legacy. 

LEARN MORE: ⁠⁠www.decidedlywealth.com⁠⁠

CONNECT WITH DON MOORE

Don’s Faculty Website: ⁠https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/⁠ 

Don’s Lab Website: ⁠https://learnmoore.org/⁠ 

X: @donandrewmoore 

LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/⁠ 

Books: ⁠https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B083M5M6X4/allbooks?ingress=0&visitId=54bc4249-8552-4de4-bbed-b4ac6d41d5ec&ref_=ap_rdr⁠  

Don Moore holds the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. His research interests include overconfidence, including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth.  He is only occasionally overconfident.