Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. HACE 3 H

    Bull Market on Borrowed Time | Ned Davis Chief Strategist Tim Hayes on the Indicators That Matter

    Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold’s secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You’ll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim’s timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible. Topics Covered NDR’s 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”) How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked out Secular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turn Reading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could mean Concentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the world Where value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotations Gold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocation Practical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold “No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicators Using historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from them Tim’s core lesson: you can’t forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-driven Timestamps (YouTube Chapters) 00:00 Don’t fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context) 01:06 Intro and why NDR’s process beats single charts 02:58 NDR’s 360° framework and composite models 05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation 08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record 09:27 “Secular bull intact; secular-bear risk rising” explained 13:04 What counts as a secular bear (’66–’82, 2000–’09) 15:05 Tightening vs. easing cycles and thrust reliability 16:22 What a breadth thrust actually looks like 19:55 From sentiment extremes to 50/200-day confirmation 20:06 Bonds and stocks: the correlation flip since 2022 22:47 Duration, rate-cut hopes, and why cash led in 2022 24:02 Mega-cap concentration risk—paths from here 27:23 Valuation: tech earnings yield at extremes; U.S. most expensive 29:14 Where value/small caps/EM can win; China’s role in EM 33:25 Gold’s standout year—drivers and positioning 36:16 Gold’s secular and cyclical bull case 37:13 How much gold belongs in a balanced portfolio 40:32 “No Pets Allowed”: trust aggregates, not single signals 47:16 Bear-watch vs. rally-watch signals in 2025 49:02 Using historical analogs without overfitting 51:00 NDR culture: objectivity over narratives 53:41 Why independence matters 53:59 Two closing questions: contrarian belief and one lesson 59:03 Where to find Tim and NDR; disclaimer

    1 h

  2. HACE 3 DÍAS

    Brent Donnelly on the Fed, Inflation, and Why 2% No Longer Matters

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, and the lessons he’s learned about risk management, narratives, and humility in markets. Topics Covered: Why the Fed is becoming more political and what that means for markets The “re-acceleration that wasn’t” and lessons from quickly abandoning trades How to structure trades like gold calls and TLT puts for asymmetric payoff FX as the “exhaust valve” for tariffs and global capital flows Canada’s housing bubble and CAD vulnerabilities Inflation targeting, bond vigilantes, and the Fed’s credibility Avoiding the trap of perma-bearishness and using stop-losses as forced humility The importance of imagination in regime changes and Fed forecast errors How Brent is using LLMs and AI to trade headlines, structure trades, and analyze patterns Trading bubble names with options and risk-aware structures Lessons on flexibility, humility, and embracing uncertainty in markets Timestamps: 00:00 – Fed independence and political pressure 02:00 – The failed “re-acceleration” thesis 06:00 – Structuring gold calls and TLT puts 14:00 – FX as the exhaust valve for tariffs 20:50 – Canada’s housing market and CAD risks 26:30 – The Fed as a political institution 32:40 – Inflation targeting and 3% as the new 2% 35:20 – Avoiding perma-bear bias and using stop-losses 42:00 – The Fed dinner story and the humility of wrong forecasts 46:30 – Using LLMs and AI in trading 53:00 – Shorting bubble names with call spreads 56:00 – Cheat sheets and pattern recognition with AI 59:30 – Lessons on flexibility and humility in trading 1:02:15 – Closing thoughts and where to follow Brent

    1 h y 4 min

  3. HACE 5 DÍAS

    Cullen Roche on Inflation, AI and Why the Debt Crisis is Overblown

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more disinflationary pressures than inflationary risks. We also dive into his “defined duration” investing framework and preview his upcoming work on portfolio strategies. Topics Covered Why fears of a looming debt crisis may be misplaced Inflation outlook, tariffs, and the Fed’s “soft landing” challenge The importance of Fed independence and risks of politicization Immigration, demographics, and long-term disinflationary trends How AI is reshaping productivity, inequality, and the job market Defined Duration Investing and asset-liability matching Lessons from all-weather strategies and the Permanent Portfolio Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio” and future of global markets Timestamps 00:00 – Cullen on debt crisis fears 02:32 – State of the U.S. economy post-COVID 05:18 – Inflation, tariffs, and shelter costs 10:25 – Soft landing vs. rolling recessions 14:07 – The Fed’s role and impossible job 19:25 – National debt and Ray Dalio’s crisis warning 27:52 – AI boom and disinflationary forces 31:01 – Immigration, demographics, and inflation 37:23 – Aging population and wealth inequality 43:00 – How AI impacts productivity and jobs 52:00 – Defined Duration Investing explained 1:01:34 – Portfolio strategies: Permanent Portfolio & risk parity 1:03:54 – Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio” 1:06:31 – Closing thoughts and future projects

    1 h y 7 min

  4. 7 SEP

    This Hasn't Happened Since 1930 | Eric Pachman on Why the Labor Market is Lying to You

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with EricPachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, andinvesting. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world tohealthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investmentfirm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends,healthcare’s role in the economy, immigration, inflation, and how hissystematic process identifies companies with the endurance to thrive. ### Topics Covered * Eric’s unconventional career path: from Morgan Stanley andExxonMobil to founding 46Brooklyn and joining Band Creek * How personal experiences led him to tackle healthcaretransparency and drug pricing reform * The role of **information theory** in investing and thefoundation of Band Creek’s systematic process * Building powerful data visualizations to understand labormarkets, inflation, and structural economic changes * Why healthcare dominates recent U.S. job growth and therisks of overreliance on one sector * The impact of immigration on labor force growth andstructural inflation * Key drivers of inflation and how to interpret CPI and PCEdata * How Band Creek applies systematic endurance and the KellyCriterion to equity selection * Sector exposures and lessons learned from applyingdata-driven models internationally * Eric’s views on cognitive biases, why most investors can’treliably beat the market, and the power of data analysis

    1 h y 5 min

  5. 3 SEP

    Cole Smead on Deficits, Inflation, and the Erosion of Earnings Quality in Technology Stocks

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cole Smead of Smead Capital for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, history, and the principles of value investing. Cole shares his perspectives on fiscal largesse, inflation, passive flows, energy markets, U.S. exceptionalism, and the timeless lessons of Buffett and Munger. His insights bridge economic history with today’s market realities, giving investors a framework to think about risk, capital allocation, and opportunity costs. Deficits, monetary policy, and why recessions are hard to find today Inflation dynamics and lessons from the 1960s and 1970s The U.S. government’s role in markets (Intel stake, big government policies) American exceptionalism vs. global capital allocation improvements Earnings quality and the divergence between accounting and economic profits Passive investing flows, weak competition, and investor behavior Energy investing: from fracking bust to efficiency and capital discipline Comparing the AI boom with past manias and capital cycles Smead Capital’s investment process and evaluating “wonderful companies” Buffett, Munger, and the lessons of asset-light vs. capital-intensive businesses Closing insights: why returns on capital matter more than EPS or revenue 00:00 – Opening quote and fiscal deficits 02:00 – Debt, inflation, and recession risks 08:50 – Government stake in Intel & big government era 12:15 – U.S. exceptionalism and arrogance 17:30 – Earnings quality erosion in U.S. businesses 24:00 – Passive flows and human behavior 27:30 – Opportunities in energy investing 34:00 – Energy buildout vs. AI boom 38:00 – Smead Capital’s investment process 44:00 – Lessons from Buffett and Munger 51:00 – Standard closing question

    52 min

  6. 31 AGO

    31 Years of Lessons: Northwestern Mutual CIO Brent Schutte on Markets, Cycles, and Diversification

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Schutte, CIO of Northwestern Mutual, to discuss the current macro landscape and what it means for investors. Brent shares his balanced perspective on the Fed, inflation, tariffs, concentration risk in markets, and why diversification may be more important now than ever. With over 30 years of investing experience, Brent provides valuable lessons from past cycles that help put today’s environment in context. The Fed’s dual mandate and why both inflation and unemployment risks matter How tariffs could reshape growth and inflation dynamics Market concentration and the dominance of the Magnificent Seven Lessons from past cycles (1999 tech bubble, 2007 commodities, Japan in the 1980s) The role of diversification, including small/mid caps, international equities, and commodities Active vs. passive investing and how to evaluate managers Recession signals, rolling recessions, and hidden economic weakness Why humility and balance are essential in portfolio construction 00:00 – Introduction & importance of diversification 02:00 – The Fed’s mandate and tariffs’ impact on growth & inflation 07:30 – Reaction to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech & Fed independence 15:20 – Hidden recession, labor market signals & AI’s economic role 20:30 – Reliability of recession indicators post-COVID 26:00 – Tariffs, uncertainty & risks for investors 28:40 – Market concentration and the Magnificent Seven 34:00 – Rethinking diversification: 60/40, commodities, and international exposure 41:20 – Lessons from past market cycles (Japan, dot-com, China, commodities) 45:15 – Passive flows, active management, and evaluating skill vs. luck 50:00 – Government stakes in companies (Intel discussion) 52:00 – Standard closing questions & final lessons

    58 min

  7. 29 AGO

    The Hidden Risks of High Income Options Strategies | Shawn Gibson and Eric McArdle

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Shawn Gibson and Eric McArdle of Liquid Strategies to explore the rapidly growing world of option-based ETF strategies. With the rise of covered calls, buffered products, and hedged equity funds, it’s more important than ever for investors to separate smart solutions from risky marketing gimmicks. Shawn and Eric break down how their firm approaches overlays, income generation, and downside protection in a way that helps advisors and investors achieve better long-term outcomes. The evolution of options in ETFs and why adoption has accelerated Common flaws in covered call strategies and the risks investors miss How Liquid Strategies uses option overlays to add return, income, and downside protection The “Swiss Army knife” approach to using put spreads for multiple portfolio goals The importance of timeframe in option strategies and the debate around 0DTE Why “high yield” products often just return investor capital Using options for true risk management and hedging vs. cosmetic protection How Liquid Strategies structures its ETF suite and interval funds Where hedged equity and bond overlays can serve as ballast in portfolios Standard closing lessons for investors on staying invested and balancing risk 00:01 – Introduction to Liquid Strategies and option-based ETFs 02:34 – The rise of options in portfolios and industry evolution 05:29 – Flaws in common options strategies 08:19 – Covered calls: why they often disappoint 12:00 – Balancing upside, downside, and income in overlays 15:31 – What overlay strategies really mean 20:19 – The “Swiss Army knife” of selling put spreads 24:09 – Why timeframe matters and 0DTE options debate 28:56 – How rates and volatility impact option overlays 32:59 – The importance of systematic but flexible processes 36:46 – High yield traps and returning investor capital 43:04 – Using options for hedging and risk management 46:47 – How advisors incorporate overlays into portfolios 48:54 – ETFs vs. interval funds explained 54:26 – Where overlays fit in today’s asset allocation 57:55 – Closing lessons for investors

    1 h y 2 min

  8. 28 AGO

    Jim Paulsen on Growth, the Fed and the Case for a Broadening Rally

    In this episode, Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives joins us to break down the state of the economy, the Fed’s policy stance, inflation risks, and what’s really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall. Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession despite sluggish data How fiscal policy, tariffs, the dollar, and monetary policy are shaping growth Why corporate profits outside the S&P 500 remain below trend despite large-cap strength The Fed’s inflation obsession, the 2% target debate, and Jackson Hole policy shifts Jim’s case that inflation fears are overblown, with supporting data on CPI, PPI, wages, and expectations Historical supports for bull markets (liquidity, interest rates, dollar, confidence) and why they’ve been missing Divergence between S&P 500 valuations vs. the rest of the market Structural disconnect between small/mid-caps and large-cap earnings The opportunity for market broadening if the Fed eases policy What Jim will be watching heading into year-end 00:00 – Economic growth slowdown and risks of recession02:00 – Policy backdrop: fiscal, monetary, dollar, and tariffs07:00 – Why recession may still be avoided15:00 – Powell, Jackson Hole, and the Fed’s inflation stance24:00 – Are inflation fears overblown?36:00 – Inflation surprise index and momentum37:00 – What supports bull markets (liquidity, rates, dollar, confidence)41:00 – Trendline analysis: S&P vs. broader market47:00 – Russell 2000 earnings vs. S&P 500 divergence52:00 – Corporate profits divergence and policy implications59:00 – What Jim is watching heading into year-end

    1 h y 2 min
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Información

  • Creador
    Excess Returns
  • Años de actividad
    2019 - 2025
  • Episodios
    376
  • Clasificación
    Apto
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Mostrar sitio web
    Excess Returns

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