The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

Nate Hagens
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The Great Simplification is a podcast that explores the systems science underpinning the human predicament. Through conversations with experts and leaders hosted by Dr. Nate Hagens, we explore topics spanning ecology, economics, energy, geopolitics, human behavior, and monetary/financial systems. Our goal is to provide a simple educational resource for the complex energetic, physical, and social constraints ahead, and to inspire people to play a role in our collective future. Ultimately, we aim to normalize these conversations and, in doing so, change the initial conditions of future events.

  1. HACE 1 DÍA

    Peak Oil, Ponzi Pyramids, and Planetary Boundaries

    To view the graphs Nate is referring to in this episode, please click here. --- In this week’s Frankly, Nate returns from New York City Climate Week with fresh reflections on the disconnect between our economic narratives and biophysical realities. Using his background in finance, Nate observes that while the prioritization of financial abstractions and claims continue to accelerate, with gold and silver prices reaching record-setting highs, the ledger is being balanced with parallel declines in our planetary health and social resilience. This tradeoff is harder and harder to ignore as newly crossed planetary boundaries continue alerting us to the fact that we are operating outside of our Earth’s ability to maintain biospheric stability. Nate also gives an update on Peak Oil, drawing on the International Energy Agency’s recent report regarding the implications of oil and gas field decline rates. He emphasizes that the question at hand is not if these energetic supply constraints will affect the trajectory of human systems – rather, the question is when it will come into effect, and how we will respond as a human species. Given the increasing number of reports on declining oil forecasts, how much longer can our society remain energy-blind? Where might our priorities shift if we truly understood the biophysical limits shaping our future? Lastly, if we were to zoom out towards a wider boundary lens, what types of societal responses become possible that could steer us towards better human and planetary futures?  (Recorded September 30, 2025)   Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

    22 min

  2. HACE 3 DÍAS

    Moral Ambition: Redefining Success for the Global Good with Rutger Bregman

    The overarching definition of success today often looks like the accumulation of stuff – money, cars, property, clothing – anything that signals wealth. This means that success is also synonymous with overshoot, extraction, and consumption – none of which lead to healthy outcomes for the planet or the global good. But what might be possible if we were to redefine success to prioritize collective well-being instead of personal gain? In today’s episode, Nate sits down with Dutch historian and author Rutger Bregman to discuss the concept of moral ambition, which he defines as the desire to be one of the best, measured by different standards of success: not by big payouts or fancy honorifics, but by the ability to tackle the world’s biggest problems. Bregman highlights the importance of entrepreneurs in driving social change and the necessity of cultural shifts to foster a more altruistic society, as well as the challenges faced in pursuing these ideals. What possibilities might arise if we combined the idealism of an activist with the ambition of an entrepreneur? How can we apply the principles of entrepreneurship to better address global challenges? And how could a radical redefinition of success motivate the world’s top talent to make major contributions to our most pressing issues, leaving a legacy that actually makes a difference? (Conversation recorded on July 8th, 2025)   About Rutger Bregman: Rutger Bregman is a Dutch historian and author. Initially considering a career as an academic historian, Rutger instead ventured into journalism. He began his career at the Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant before moving to the independent journalism platform De Correspondent, for which he wrote for ten years. His books Humankind: A Hopeful History (2020) and Utopia for Realists: And How We Can Get There (2017) were both Sunday Times and New York Times bestsellers and have been translated into 46 languages. In 2024, Rutger co-founded The School for Moral Ambition, a non-profit organization inspired by his latest book, Moral Ambition: Stop Wasting Your Talent and Start Making a Difference. The initiative helps people to take the step toward an impactful career. Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

    1 h y 16 min

  3. 26 SEP

    The Influence of Psychopaths: Why Humanity Is Better Than We Think

    In this week’s Frankly, Nate reflects on intraspecies predation (ours) and the impact psychopathic actors have on the mean and median of human behavior – in the past all the way up to our modern society. Human evolution was shaped by both cooperative, pro-social behavior and a competitive, predatory approach for survival – resulting in a balanced distribution for most of humanity’s existence.   But, as agriculture, surplus, and other factors propelled more hierarchical social structure, aggregate human behavior and culture has slowly shifted over time to express more psychopathic traits. This thread of behavior continues to run through our modern society, where a relatively small (but disproportionately powerful) segment of the human population can pull societal behavior towards anti-social and individualistic values – even if the majority of people still inherently operate from a place of reciprocity. Why might our modern society provide a more fruitful breeding ground for psychopathy than past societies did? What do chickens and eggs have to do with psychopathy and the economic superorganism? And ultimately, what strategies could we begin to think about in order to shift mean and median human behavior back towards a more cooperative, prosocial middle? (Recorded September 22nd, 2025)   Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

    22 min

  4. 24 SEP

    The Past and Future of Societal Collapse: Why Civilizations Fall and What We Can Learn From It with Luke Kemp

    For many people today, the idea of societal collapse is unimaginable. Yet history shows that well-established civilizations have fallen again and again – often for similar reasons. In fact, the same forces that build empires can also culminate in their downfall. How can understanding these historical patterns help us prepare for similar existential risks we may already be facing today?  In this episode, Nate is joined by existential risk researcher Luke Kemp to explore the intricate history of societal collapse – connecting patterns of dominance hierarchies, resource control, and inequality to create societies which he calls Goliaths. Together, they delve into the deep history of what egalitarian humans were like before complex civilizations emerged, and the changes in climate and agriculture that created the conditions for hierarchical societies. Luke explains how these very same factors have culminated in the rise and fall of Goliaths, and how these have led to today’s global challenges such as nuclear warfare and even AI-fueled surveillance states.  Can knowing our past help us avoid repeating it? Are we in collapse now, and was this civilizational trajectory inevitable? How does the study of civilizational collapse help us grasp the best and worst of humanity – and can we use that knowledge to lean into the better sides of ourselves and put ourselves on a different, more resilient path? (Conversation recorded on August 6th, 2025)     About Luke Kemp: Luke is a Research Affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) and Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. His research focuses on understanding the history and future of extreme global risk. Luke has advised the WHO and multiple international institutions, and his work has been covered by media outlets such as the BBC, New York Times, and the New Yorker. He holds both a Doctorate in International Relations and a Bachelor of Interdisciplinary Studies with first class honours from the Australian National University (ANU). His first book, titled Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse, was published in 2025 and is now available.   Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

    2 h y 16 min

  5. 17 SEP

    Dark Triad Personality Traits: How Psychopathy, Narcissism, and Machiavellianism Impact Our Cultures & Social Systems | RR 19

    Psychopathy is often portrayed as a rare and distant phenomenon – something confined to movie villains or prison cells. Yet when psychopathy is combined with narcissism and Machiavellianism to form what psychologists call the Dark Triad, its impact becomes far more immediate. Individuals with these traits can wield disproportionate influence over our culture, institutions, and daily lives. What goes on inside their minds, and how do they shape the world around us? In this episode, Nate is joined by Dr. Reid Meloy and Dr. Nancy McWilliams to explore the inner workings of the Dark Triad personality traits and their manifestation in modern culture. Together, they trace the evolutionary roots of these traits, examine the predatory ways Dark Triad individuals engage with others, and consider the profound implications for leadership, power, and governance. Ultimately, they emphasize the importance of truth and community when navigating the complexities of human behavior. Why are Dark Triad individuals more likely to occupy positions of power? How do current cultural norms and expectations actually incentivize Dark Triad tendencies, including in governance? Most importantly, how can reorienting towards collective communication and cooperation help create guardrails against these ‘darker angels’ of humanity?  (Conversation recorded on July 22nd, 2025) About Nancy McWilliams: Dr. Nancy McWilliams, Ph.D., ABPP, is a distinguished psychoanalyst, author, and educator internationally recognized for her contributions to the field of personality theory and psychodynamic diagnosis. She is Professor Emerita at the Graduate School of Applied and Professional Psychology at Rutgers. Her published work addresses the clinical and cultural relevance of language in diagnosing complex personality patterns, including narcissistic and psychopathic structures, and she has written on the psychology of altruism, moral development, and the enduring role of psychoanalytic thinking in understanding human nature.    About Reid Meloy: Dr. J. Reid Meloy, Ph.D., ABPP, is a board-certified forensic psychologist, former clinical professor of psychiatry at the University of California, San Diego School of Medicine, and a widely cited authority on psychopathy, personality disorders, and targeted violence. Dr. Meloy has served as a consultant, researcher, and trainer for numerous law enforcement, intelligence, and corporate security agencies around the world. He is the author or editor of more than 200 peer-reviewed publications and several seminal books, including The Psychopathic Mind, International Handbook of Threat Assessment, and Violent Attachments.    Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

    1 h y 24 min

  6. 12 SEP

    This Week's Learnings: Gold Holdings, Political Divides, and the DOE Climate Report | Frankly 107

    In this week’s Frankly, in a continuation of his ‘This Week's Learnings’ series, Nate  updates viewers on things he learned in the past week, and the implications for our sociocultural trajectory. This edition focuses on recent financial and political headlines – global gold holdings, shifting geopolitical energy deals, and new U.S. Department of Energy reports – and explains their relevance to our biophysical reality and broader geopolitical landscape. Through this exercise, Nate invites podcast viewers to use a systems lens to integrate the wide array of news we are bombarded with into the large evolving story of The Human Predicament. Why does it matter that central banks now hold more gold than the U.S. treasuries? How might expanding energy collaborations between Russia and China shift the global political power of the United States and Europe?  How do current economic and political incentives affect the nature of energy science, and what we consider to be ‘truth’ itself? (Recorded September 9th, 2025) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. ---  Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

    17 min

  7. 10 SEP

    Why We Need Forests: Their Vital Role in Climate Dynamics, Rain, and The Biotic Pump with Anastassia Makarieva

    To best understand this episode, please watch this ~2 minute video on the biotic pump.   It’s widely known that Earth’s forests provide home to countless numbers of species, act as a vast sink for carbon, and provide much of the food, materials, and clean water on which our societies rely. But emerging science shows us that forests may play another critical role: making rain. This theory, called the biotic pump theory, hypothesizes that instead of being passive recipients of rain, forests may actively create the conditions for precipitation over land – a premise that turns modern meteorology on its head. In this episode, Nate is joined by physicist Anastassia Makarieva about the critical yet often overlooked role forests play in maintaining ecological balance and climate stability. Through the lens of the biotic pump theory, she highlights the importance of moisture and rainfall cycles, the dangers of ecosystem tipping points, and the escalating risks of deforestation. Anastassia argues that a paradigm shift is needed – one that redefines how humanity understands and manages forests in the fight against global heating. What would climate models reveal if they fully integrated the Biotic Pump Theory? How might policies protecting against deforestation evolve if societies recognized the irreplaceable role forests play in how water moves on land?  And beyond policy, how might reconnecting with our deep interdependence on forests help us rediscover a richer connection to ourselves as individuals? (Conversation recorded on July 9th, 2025)   About Anastassia Makarieva: Dr. Anastassia Makarieva is a Russian atmospheric physicist and senior researcher at the Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute. She obtained her Ph.D. in atmospheric physics from St. Petersburg State University in 2000. Makarieva is best known for co-developing the "biotic pump" theory alongside the late Professor Victor Gorshkov. The theory posits that forests play a crucial role in driving atmospheric moisture transport, effectively influencing rainfall patterns over land. Her work emphasizes the importance of intact forests in maintaining climate stability and has challenged conventional climate models to incorporate the dynamic role of vegetation in atmospheric processes.   Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo group and connect with other listeners

    2 h y 2 min

  8. 5 SEP

    10 Things Worth More Than a Pound of Gold | Frankly 106

    In this week’s Frankly, Nate weighs the value of a pound of gold with other things that we derive worth from in our lives – from dollars and bitcoin to...less pecuniary markers. Although gold is simply a metal, it has long been a symbol of wealth in human cultures. Through highlighting other important, sometimes intangible forms of wealth, Nate encourages the viewer to not only examine what they place the most worth on in their own lives, but also to consider why things have worth to us as humans living in a complex, modern system. What contributes to the real wealth of your life – and can it be measured and held, or is it something more intangible? And finally, how might our definitions of wealth change if we were -as individuals and as a culture - to fully appreciate the miracle that is human life and connection with one another and the natural world? (Recorded August 31, 2025) Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie. ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

    16 min
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The Great Simplification is a podcast that explores the systems science underpinning the human predicament. Through conversations with experts and leaders hosted by Dr. Nate Hagens, we explore topics spanning ecology, economics, energy, geopolitics, human behavior, and monetary/financial systems. Our goal is to provide a simple educational resource for the complex energetic, physical, and social constraints ahead, and to inspire people to play a role in our collective future. Ultimately, we aim to normalize these conversations and, in doing so, change the initial conditions of future events.

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