SemiAnalysis Weekly

Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin

Everything semiconductors and AI Covering the spectrum

  1. 6 hr ago

    Ep. 028 - Most Neoclouds Suck At Security: How Agents Hacked Hugging Face (Neoclouds, Security) | Doug O'Laughlin, Sam Harshe, Jordan Nanos

    This week Doug, Sam and Jordan discuss the OpenAI vs HuggingFace security incident and our recent article on Neocloud security ahead of ClusterMAX 3.0 Full article: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/most-neoclouds-suck-at-security 0:00 Cold Open 0:57 Neocloud Security 4:38 The Hugging Face Hack 11:47 Agent Swarm Behavior 14:47 Obliterated Models 20:37 Security as a Service 24:30 What the Data Shows 33:08 Attacker Asymmetry 40:55 Nothing Ever Happens 45:22 CMAX Audit

  2. 2 days ago

    Ep. 027 - OpenAI Jalapeño: Better Than Nvidia Blackwell (Accelerators)

    This week Bryan, Myron and Jordan discuss our recent article on OpenAI Jalapeño. They cover the performance, architecture, programming model, implications for NVIDIA and more.1:05 Jalapeno Overview4:22 Tokens Per Megawatt9:15 Benchmark Caveats13:48 The CUDA Moat21:12 How OpenAI Did It32:13 Samsung HBM442:10 AI-Designed Silicon49:24 Architecture Deep Dive56:58 Doom and Wrap Full Article: ⁠https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/openai-jalapeno-better-than-nvidia

  3. 20 Aug

    Ep. 026 - PJM's $12B Modeling Mistake Is Hitting Ratepayers Again (Datacenter, Energy) | Robert Boswall, Jordan Nanos

    PJM overpaid $12 billion across two capacity auctions, and the same modeling error is set to repeat in an upcoming emergency auction. Robert Boswall (@RobertBoswall) and Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) break down how the largest grid in America, 13 states and 66 million people, inflates demand while constraining supply. The result is scarcity pricing that ratepayers absorb, not the data centers driving the narrative. Of the $63 billion spent across four auctions, Boswell estimates $12 billion was avoidable, split $7 billion and $5 billion across the 2025-26 and 2026-27 auctions. This is the mechanics behind every headline blaming AI for rising power bills. Subscribe for weekly analysis on grid design, capacity markets, and AI energy demand! 0:00 Cold Open1:33 What Is PJM3:13 Capacity Auctions7:39 The $12 Billion12:33 How Plants Get Paid15:15 The Winterization Gap21:17 Data Center Demand26:41 The Emergency Auction30:00 Board Overrules Members40:32 Turning It Around Article: https://open.substack.com/pub/semianalysis/p/12b-of-us-ratepayers-money-wasted

  4. 17 Aug

    Ep. 25 - DYLAN IS HERE, LIVE! | Dylan Patel & Jordan Nanos

    Dylan joins the pod today, recorded live from our SF office. Jordan and Dylan discuss SemiAnalysis's AI spend, the model that escaped during training, AI rollups eating private equity, new accelerators vs NVIDIA, and whether the pod gives away too much information for free.0:00 Cold Open5:25 SA AI Spend9:29 AI Performance Reviews10:40 AI Rollups13:47 The Agent Moment15:28 The Escaped Model18:11 Model Exponential22:52 Compute and Chips30:18 Open Models32:00 ADHD and AI

  5. 9 Aug

    Ep. 024 - SpaceX's 10GW Plan Drives $300B ARR by 2027 (Datacenter, Energy) | Reyk Knuhtsen, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Jordan Nanos

    OpenAI and Anthropic are adding close to $30 billion of ARR per month, and the driver is gross margin expansion, not new compute. Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros (@JeremieEO) and Reyk Knuhtsen (@robotknower) join Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to trace the $100 million per megawatt per year figure from real inference workloads on GB200 and GB300 up through SemiAnalysis simulation. The Google deal prices GB300 capacity near $14 an hour against a $3 average, a premium justified by a 90 day cancellation clause and the ability to turn on megawatts immediately. From there the conversation moves to SpaceX's 10 gigawatt ambition, the sites and supply chain needed to hit it, the permitting playbook, and why Microsoft becomes the largest offtaker. The bull and bear cases both get airtime, followed by a Hugging Face security scare to close. Subscribe for weekly coverage of tokenomics, datacenter energy, and AI compute economics. CHAPTERS: 0:00 – Intro0:47 – The $100M Thesis3:59 – Pricing & Google's Deal10:38 – Training vs Inference13:21 – Sites & Supply Chain20:55 – Permitting Playbook25:40 – Microsoft's Role33:31 – Paying For It41:01 – Bull vs Bear43:29 – Hugging Face Security Scare & Wrap-Up Referenced:SpaceX 10GW in 2027 – Why It's Real, Will Drive $300B ARR for SpaceX, and Why Microsoft Will Be the Largest Offtaker: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/spacex-10gw-in-2027-why-its-real

  6. 7 Aug

    Ep. 023 - Everyone Leaves Google, Elon Forecasts 1T ARR, Reflecting On GPT-5, Building Personalized Software (Roundtable) | Jon Y, Doug O'Laughlin, Jordan Nanos

    Jeff Dean and the Gemini leads are leaving Google. Jon Y (@asianometry) makes his FIRST appearance to unpack the exodus with Doug O'Laughlin (@fabknowledge) and Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos). The crew debates the Demis CEO question, whether Google acquired its innovation or invented it, and how the Bell Labs comparison reads once disruption arrives. First engineers who spent thirty-five years in one job now leaving for passion projects.The episode opens by revisiting the 2024 Dwarkesh clip where Jon questioned whether GPT-5 would be any good. Two years later the verdict is mixed: GPT-5 was a dud, 5.2 was ass, but 5.6 is strong and GPT-6, codenamed Doug, is rumored to write well. Then the Chinese transceiver ban, where the West depends on a supply chain China already owns. 00:00 Intro 01:02 Was GPT-5 Good? 05:00 The Transceiver Ban 08:57 Everyone Leaves Google 12:56 Google's L Culture 19:20 Do Legends Matter? 23:44 The Protestant Church 28:44 Elon's $1T Pull-In 30:55 Roll Your Own Software 38:17 Start With Memory

  7. 29 Jul

    Ep. 022 - Market Drawdown, Historic Bubbles, Funding The Buildout, AI Politics (Doug is Back)

    Doug is back this week!Timestamps:00:00 Market Update07:02 Comparing to Past Bubbles in Taiwan and Korea10:08 Memory Prices, LTAs, and Market Cycles18:11 Future Demand for AI and Model Usage37:40 Scaling Laws and Supply Constraints44:45 Financial and Capital Constraints in Tech Expansion50:57 Geopolitical Risks, Policy Impact, Long Term Outlook

  8. 23 Jul

    Ep. 021 - The AI Project Trinity: Capital, Offtake, Data Center (Datacenter, Energy) | Dan Nishball, Jordan Nanos, Zane Fong, Kang Wen Cheang

    AI and datacenter CapEx hits $11 trillion cumulatively from 2024 to 2029, and $7.1 trillion of that needs funding, roughly 75% debt financed. Dan Nishball (@dnishball), Zane Fong (linkedin.com/in/zanefongzq), and Kang Wen Cheang (linkedin.com/in/cheangkangwen) sit with Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) to break down the AI project Trinity: capital, offtake, and data centers. Today only one deal reliably clears the lending bar, a five-year offtake from an investment-grade hyperscaler. Everything else struggles to finance.The crew explains how NVIDIA backstops are structured, how lenders price GPU loans against them, and what NVIDIA actually does with GPUs it takes back. AI debt financing is on track to become the second-largest US asset-backed market behind the $13 trillion mortgage market. Subscribe for weekly analysis on semiconductors and AI infrastructure. References: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/nvidia-gpu-debt-backstop-unleashes CHAPTERS: 00:00 Intro| 01:23 The $11T Funding Problem 09:12 Startups Can't Get GPUs 11:32 How the Backstop Works 20:26 The Central Bank of AI 21:35 The Bullseye 26:23 CoreWeave Credit Spreads 36:58 APAC Examples 42:41 ClusterMax 48:58 Training vs Inference

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About

Everything semiconductors and AI Covering the spectrum

Information

  • Creator
    Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin
  • Years Active
    2026
  • Episodes
    29
  • Rating
    Explicit
  • Copyright
    © Jordan Nanos, Doug O'Laughlin
  • Show Website
    SemiAnalysis Weekly

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