Carnegie Endowment

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Canal • 6 emisiuni

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20 mai

Will Europe Ever Stand Up to Trump?

Since U.S. President Donald Trump has returned to the White House, several crises have affected the transatlantic relationship. Rym Momtaz, Rosa Balfour, and Stefan Lehne reflect on whether Europeans should stop considering the United States as the partner it once was. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:00:57] Was it Worth it for Europe to Appease Trump?, [00:13:22] EU Dependence on the U.S. in Different Domains, [00:24:56] Is the U.S. Still a Reliable Partner for Europe? Rym Momtaz, ed., May 7, 2026, “Taking the Pulse: Is it Worth it for Europeans to Placate Trump?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Rym Momtaz, May 5, 2026, “Europeans Are Quiet Quitting the United States,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Rym Momtaz, ed., April 9, 2026, “Taking the Pulse: Can NATO Survive the Iran War?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Stefan Lehne, March 24, 2026, “Time to Merge the Commission and EEAS,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Stefan Lehne, February 12, 2026, “What Can the EU Do About Trump 2.0?,” Carnegie Europe. Rosa Balfour, February 8, 2026, “Dependence on the United States Is Deeply Rooted in the European Mindset,” Le Monde. Rosa Balfour, January 24, 2026, “The EU Finally Used an Economic Threat Against Trump. But the Markets Forces his Climbdown,” The Guardian. Rosa Balfour, January 6, 2026, “The Cost of Europe’s Weak Venezuela Response,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Stefan Lehne, November 4, 2025, “Can the EU Meet the Trump Moment?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Rosa Balfour, Stefan Lehne, and Elena Ventura, September 22, 2025, “The European Radical Right in the Age of Trump 2.0,” Carnegie Europe.

20 mai

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37 min
22 apr.

Can France Be Europe’s Nuclear Deterrent?

Emmanuel Macron's updated French nuclear doctrine represents an unprecedented effort by Paris to coordinate with European partners as U.S. security commitments decline. Rym Momtaz, Sophia Besch, and Ulrich Kühn discuss France's evolving role in European nuclear deterrence and the political and material credibility gaps that persist. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:26] Macron’s Update to France’s Nuclear Doctrine, [00:09:13] The Role of the Baltics in Europe’s Defense, [00:22:47] European Alternatives to the U.S. Extended Deterrence. Rym Momtaz, April 7, 2026, “On NATO, Trump Should Embrace France Instead of Bashing It,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Rym Momtaz (ed.), March 12, 2026, “Taking the Pulse: Is France’s New Nuclear Doctrine Ambitious Enough?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Ulrich Kühn, February 24, 2026, “The Unintended Consequences of German Deterrence,” Global Policy vol. 17, issue S1: 1-9, https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70134. Sophia Besch, Erik Brown, and Rafaela Uzan, December 22, 2025, “Rebalancing the Transatlantic Defense-Industrial Relationship: Regional Pragmatism in Northeastern Europe,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Sophia Besch and Jamie Kwong, December 11, 2025, “Unpacking Europe’s Deterrence Dilemmas,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Ulrich Kühn, May 1, 2025, “Is Europe Moving to an Independent Nuclear Deterrent?,” Arms Control Today, Arms Control Association.

22 apr.

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30 min
15 mai

Putin Is Losing His Grip on Russia

Russia’s surprising recent Internet shutdown did more than disrupt daily life: it also crippled the regime’s own communications and propaganda. It’s one of a series of strange events—from a diminished Victory Day parade to crackdowns on businesspeople and celebrities—that suggest growing disorder and confusion within the Russian state. Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Moscow insider who quit over the Ukraine War, says that Vladimir Putin has lost focus on running the country. She joins Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to explain the erosion of Russia’s social contract and share stories from her new book From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War Against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite. Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Alexandra Prokopenko: https://x.com/amenka

15 mai

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51 min
14 apr.

Why Orbán Lost and What Happens Next

The world is still making sense of Viktor Orbán’s historic election loss in Hungary—a small country with outsized global significance. Why were Orbán’s generational efforts to stack the electoral deck not enough to prevent his landslide defeat? Is this a warning sign for right-wing populists in America, Europe, and elsewhere who’ve modeled their own movements on Orbán’s? Tom Carothers, a top democracy scholar with deep ties in Hungary, joins Jon Bateman on a special episode of The World Unpacked. Tom explains why Orbán lost, why his successor Peter Magyar isn’t the anti-Orbán that many assume, and why “electoral autocracies” around the world are less stable than they seem. Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Tom Carothers: https://carnegieendowment.org/people/...

14 apr.

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1 h 1 min.
10.04.2025

What Comes Next for Israel? A Conversation With Former Shin Bet Director Ami Ayalon

In recent days, the Netanyahu government has doubled down on its efforts to consolidate its control and ramp up its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. Following the firing of the former director of Shin Bet, an unprecedented decision in Israel’s history, the government has begun the more complicated process of terminating the attorney general, as well as changing the process by which judges are appointed. A ferocious military operation in Gaza that has taken a terrible toll on Palestinian civilians and recent anti-Hamas demonstrations have resulted in renewed negotiations on a new hostage release for ceasefire agreement. And for the first time since the Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement in November 2024, rockets launched against northern Israel triggered response strikes in the Beirut suburbs. What does the future hold for Gaza and any longer-term agreement? Will the Netanyahu government succeed in what appears to be a renewal of the 2023 effort to increase its power and undermine Israel’s judiciary? What about any hopes for a regional peace accord encompassing Palestinians and Saudi Arabia? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages former Shin Bet director Ami Ayalon on these and other issues on the next Carnegie Connects.

10.04.2025

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50 min
12 mar.

How Is the Iran War Affecting Russia? With Nicole Grajewski and Sergey Vakulenko

At the center of the new war in the Middle East is one of Russia’s most important partners in its struggle against the West: Iran. Despite strategic agreements with Tehran, Moscow is not bound by a treaty alliance with Iran—and is also consumed by its own costly war against Ukraine. Accordingly, the Kremlin has provided the Iranian regime with limited assistance, but hopes to reap greater benefits from the second-order effects of the chaos in the Middle East unleashed by Trump. How does the war affect Russia both in the Middle East and globally? How do volatile oil prices benefit the Russian war machine, and how long will the effect of this new war last for Russia?

12 mar.

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31 min
24.04.2025

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman

While recent diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to a peace deal and the unexpected Easter truce announced by Putin are bearing no fruit, the situation on the battlefield remains the most influential factor in the future trajectory of the war—including diplomatic attempts to bring the conflict to a halt. Donald Trump seems to believe that Ukraine will inevitably lose the war if a peace deal that can satisfy the Kremlin isn’t achieved. But is that really the case? What shape are Ukrainian and Russian forces in in terms of manpower, equipment, and tactics? And what are the potential scenarios for the 2025 campaign?

24.04.2025

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42 min
11 mar.

War With Iran: Why Now and What Comes Next

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched military, cyber, and intelligence operations against Iran. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed and strikes were conducted on a broad array of targets, including other senior Iranian leadership compounds, IRGC bases, and missile launchers and production facilities. In response, Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles against U.S. bases, Israel and countries in the Gulf, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar. With no signs of the conflict winding down and unclear goals and timelines from leadership in Washington, where is this war headed? Was there ever a serious prospect for negotiations between the United States and Iran? What is the likely impact of the death of Ayatollah Khamenei on succession and the stability of the regime? Is meaningful and lasting regime change or transformation possible? Join Aaron David Miller as engages with the Brooking Institution’s Suzanne Maloney, International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez, and Yale University’s Rob Malley on these and other Iran-related issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

11 mar.

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1 h 5 min.
16 apr.

Winners and Losers: Russia, China, and Europe Respond to the Iran War

Seven weeks into the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and with an uneasy ceasefire in place, it may be too early to predict conclusive winners and losers. How are Russia and China, two of Iran’s closet allies, faring in the balance sheet as the war drags on? And what of Europe, especially France, Germany, and Britain, who appeared blindsided by the war are now under pressure to support the United States’ war aims? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Carnegie’s Rosa Balfour, Evan Feigenbaum, and Alexander Gabuev to unpack how these major powers are relating to the current conflict and how the Trump administration is responding to them, on Carnegie Connects.

16 apr.

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48 min
27.02.2025

Relationship Goals? Unpacking the Latest U.S.-Russia Talks, With Eric Green and Felicia Schwartz

With the arrival of the new administration in the White House, everyone waited with bated breath for the first executive orders regarding the war in Ukraine. The actions of President Donald Trump and his team have not only damaged the United States’ reputation, but also overall transatlantic unity and—most importantly—Ukraine's prospects of security guarantees and a lasting peace. After the latest high-profile talks in Saudi Arabia, the world has been left to ponder what it all means.

27.02.2025

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41 min

Carnegie scholars and their global network of experts give their takes on foreign policy issues around the world.

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