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2025-01-09

−6 d

WTH Is the State of the Iranian Nuclear Program? David Albright Explains.

Over the weekend, the United States signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran to begin negotiations on a nuclear deal. To understand what a good deal would entail, it is important to assess the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program following Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury, as well as the timeline on which Tehran could produce a weapon despite these setbacks. David Albright argues that securing Tehran's admission of the program's existence and permitting on-the-ground IAEA inspections should be among the top priorities. A weak agreement lacking robust verification measures and proper extraction of nuclear materials could ultimately strengthen Iran, given the potential influx of fungible cash and the absence of sanctions that have allegedly circled discussions. In that case, is no deal better than a bad deal? What will it take to disarm the nuclear threat? David Albright is the founder and President of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, D.C. He has written numerous assessments on secret nuclear weapons programs throughout the world has authored or co-authored nine books and briefed policymakers on non-proliferation policy making. Albright cooperated with the IAEA Action Team analyzing Iraqi documents and was the first non-governmental inspector of the Iraqi nuclear program. Previously, Albright was a member of the Health Advisory Panel in his capacity as a physicist and was appointed to the Department of Energy Openness Advisory Panel. He is currently an American Physical Society (APS) Fellow and the 2006 recipient of the APS’s Joseph A. Burton Forum Award. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

−6 d

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1 tim 1 min
18 juni

WTH: Turning the Tide in Ukraine. George Barros Explains.

While the world’s attention has been fixed on the war in Iran, the battlefield in Ukraine has largely shifted in Kyiv’s favor. ISW’s George Barros joins us to explain how Ukrainian innovations in drone warfare, logistics, and battlefield technology have slowed Russia’s advance, increased Russian casualties, and created new opportunities for Ukrainian counterattacks. These developments are especially meaningful for future peace negotiations, as Russia’s strategy is showing signs of severe strain. Putin’s wartime claims and demands have become even more ridiculous as Ukraine strikes deeper into Russian territory. Ukraine’s wartime innovations are already helping protect American forces around the world as they reshape the future of warfare in real time. Free democracies like Ukraine tend to outpace their adversaries in innovation, and the United States should do more to friend-shore critical industries and pursue military industrial cooperation to our mutual benefit. George Barros is the Director of Innovation and Open Source Tradecraft at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), previously led ISW’s Russia Team and founded ISW GEOINT Team and has served as a policy advisor on Ukraine and Russia for a U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee member. His analyses and interviews have appeared in outlets including The Hill, Washington Post, BBC, Reuters, Voice of America, and more. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

18 juni

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1 tim 5 min
12 juni

WTH Is Trump Doing In Iran? Miad Maleki Explains.

In his relentless pursuit of a deal with Iran, Donald Trump has now returned to military escalation, resuming combat operations and warning that the United States will seize Iran’s key oil export hub on Kharg Island. This so-called moderate ceasefire signals a renewed campaign of punishing strikes on Iran until it agrees to terms set by the administration’s negotiating team. As Miad explains, however, Iran’s hardline is not the “leverage” Tehran believes it to be, because Iran ultimately must reopen the Strait of Hormuz for its own economic survival. But at this moment, Donald Trump has no viable partner for peace, and Iran will likely never offer such an option. As Marc and Dany point out, there is no Iranian Delcy Rodríguez, and these kinds of arrangements have expiration dates, particularly as 2028 approaches. As long as the sole measure of success in Iran is a negotiated deal, the Iranians hold the power to decide whether victory is possible. It is up to Trump to decide whether that's acceptable. Miad Maleki is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), former senior U.S. sanctions strategist and national security leader, and former associate director for the Treasury’s Office of Global Targeting at the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Miad played a central role in marshalling the Treasury Department’s sanctions campaigns against the Iranian regime and its proxy groups: Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi Shiite militias, and the Houthis. He is also a U.S. Air Force Veteran. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

12 juni

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1 tim 6 min
2023-12-29

Looking Back and Looking Forward

Despite battlefield gains in 2022, the last year has brought significant hurdles to Ukraine's fight against Russia. On this episode of The Eastern Front, Giselle, Dalibor, and Iulia reflect on the past year's events and consider what might be in store for the Black Sea region—and the world more broadly—in 2024. They discuss Western will and commitment to Ukraine, the future of Zelenskyy, Russia's war plans, and Biden's re-election prospects. Show notes: Sign up for The Eastern Front‘s bi-weekly newsletter here and follow us on X here. "Wake Up, West! Putin Can Gain Upper Hand in Ukraine in '24 if We Do Nothing," by Iulia Joja.

2023-12-29

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44 min
4 juni

WTH Is Going On with Iran? General Jack Keane Explains.

We’re now in the eighth week of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The Trump Administration is stuck in a holding pattern as Iranian negotiators continue to ignore US redlines and both sides insist on their own superior leverage. The unfortunate reality is that many in the Trump Administration are being fed a false calculus and discredit the ability of the US military to maintain the blockade, open the Strait, and destroy and extract nuclear material. To entertain such Iranian wishes as a billion-dollar reconstruction fund ignores the fact that CENTCOM Commander Bradley Cooper has confirmed: it would take 10-14 days to accomplish the full breadth of our military objectives in Iran. Yet, the Trump Administration is committed to making a deal, with Secretary Rubio echoing the same commitment to the negotiation seesaw. But Iran is an inherently bad faith actor. And it is using the upcoming midterms to its advantage. What now? How will we break the cycle? Thankfully we have General Jack Keane, who provides a clear-eyed strategy for victory against Iran. General Keane is widely recognized as one of America’s most respected authorities on foreign policy and national security. He is a retired four-star Army general, former Vice Chief of Staff of the Army having served our nation in uniform for 37 years. He is Fox News senior strategic analyst and is the chairman of the Institute for the Study of War. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

4 juni

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1 tim 21 min
16 apr.

WTH: The Iran Blockade? Miad Maleki Explains.

One week after claims of an "Iranian victory", with Tehran supposedly leveraging the Strait of Hormuz and outmaneuvering Donald Trump, the narrative has shifted. U.S. and allied naval forces have applied sustained pressure, effectively constraining Iranian shipping and energy exports, all without deploying ground troops. With these constraints in mind and the cards in Washington’s hands, the real deal making begins. But, apart from the challenge of the nuclear “dust,” the missile program, and terrorism, the regime will continue to pose a threat to its own people. With time on America’s side, should a grand strategy consider how to best empower the Iranian people? Miad Maleki is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a U.S. Air Force veteran. He previously worked as Associate Director for the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Global Targeting at the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), where he played a central role in architecting the Treasury Department’s sanctions campaigns against the Iranian regime and its extensive network of proxy groups, including Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi Shiite militias, and the Houthis. Mr. Maleki also served as the assistant director for counterterrorism, nonproliferation, and Middle East sanctions and as OFAC’s chief and senior sanctions coordinator for Iran and the Middle East. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

16 apr.

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1 tim 1 min
10 apr.

WTH Is Going On With NATO? Secretary General Mark Rutte Explains.

Against the backdrop of Operation Epic Fury and President Trump’s frustration with military support from NATO allies, Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Washington to discuss the alliance’s evolving burden sharing. Moving away from American codependence and increasing European defense investment took center stage at this year’s NATO Summit in The Hague, and we hope to see the fruits of that in Ukraine, along NATO’s eastern flank, and in more balanced support for U.S. efforts in Iran. Following what he described as a “candid and frank” conversation with the President this week, Rutte shares frank insights on the alliance, its future, and America’s role in addressing present day challenges in Europe. Mark Rutte took office as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 14th Secretary General on October 1st, 2024. Prior to that Mr. Rutte served as Prime Minister of the Netherlands for almost 14 years. During this time, he presided over four coalition governments, with a distinguished record of domestic and international achievements including security, defense, employment and social affairs, and economics. He was a member of the Dutch Parliament and leader of the Dutch People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy. He is a strong supporter of global and transatlantic cooperation. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

10 apr.

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39 min
23 apr.

WTH Is Going On In Lebanon? Ambassador David Hale Explains.

On the eve of talks in Washington between leaders in Lebanon and Israel, Beirut has signaled a push to extend the 10-day, U.S.-mediated ceasefire set to expire this Sunday. The ongoing conflict with Iran has put its proxies’ regional struggles into the limelight, as flashpoints continue to emerge, Lebanon chief among them. As a platform for Hezbollah, Lebanon is in a unique political position, balancing an adversary at home while aligning itself more closely with the West amid regional confrontation. Donald Trump has a historic opportunity to rid the Middle East of the Iranian regime if he is willing to commit to the persistence and patience needed to see this operation through. For Israel and Lebanon, is now the time? Ambassador David Hale is a Career Ambassador and Distinguished Diplomatic Fellow at the Middle East Institute. He also currently serves as a Distinguished Fellow with the Wilson Center. Ambassador Hale previously served as US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs; US Ambassador to Pakistan, Lebanon, and Jordan; and Special Envoy for Middle East Peace. He is the author of American Diplomacy Toward Lebanon: Lessons in Foreign Policy and the Middle East, published by Bloomsbury/I.B. Tauris in February 2024. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

23 apr.

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1 tim 1 min
30 mars

WTH Is Next in Iran? Israeli Ambassador Yechiel (Michael) Leiter Explains.

Operation Roaring Lion, now in its fourth week, has been a striking display of military coordination between the United States and Israel. Building on the success of decapitating Iran’s senior leadership, crippling its navy, and degrading its ability to terrorize its neighbors, U.S. and Israeli leaders are now weighing Tehran’s rhetoric against the reality of its diminished capabilities. Rumors of a “split” in priorities between Washington and Jerusalem, particularly claims that President Trump is quickly seeking a “off-ramp”, misread the resolve of both nations and fail to see the bigger picture at hand. In the remaining weeks, what objectives remain? Where do U.S. and Israeli missions converge or diverge? And what will ultimately signal their success? Ambassador Leiter officially assumed his role as Israel’s Ambassador to Washington on January 27, 2025. Among his prominent roles, he served as an advisor to the late Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Chief of Staff to then-Finance Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Education, and Acting Chairman of the Israel Ports Company. Beyond government, Leiter was affiliated with think tanks such as the Kohelet Policy Forum and the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, where he focused on issues like Israeli sovereignty, security strategy, and critiques of the Oslo Accords. Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

30 mars

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55 min
2 apr.

WTH: The Mythical MAGA Split on Iran. Kristen Soltis Anderson Explains.

The story from mainstream media is that the core of MAGA is "split" on the war with Iran, strikes in Venezuela, the Houthis, and other Trump 2.0 international policies. This supposed "MAGA schism" over foreign policy challenges Trump's coalition of America First isolationists and hawkish establishment Republicans. But the data tells a different story. Drawing on our coverage of the Reagan National Defense Survey and the work of our guest Kristen Soltis Anderson, we find no evidence of such a divide. In fact, MAGA voters appear overwhelmingly hawkish and strongly supportive of President Trump’s military operations, particularly in Iran. If a divide does exist within the Republican Party, it is more likely generational than ideological. What might that mean for the future of conservative foreign policy leadership? And as we look to 2028, what does a successful Republican candidate project on foreign policy according to the polls? Kristen Soltis Anderson is a pollster, speaker, TV personality, New York Times opinion writer, commentator, and author. Kristen is Founding Partner of Echelon Insights, an opinion research and analytics firm that serves brands, trade associations, nonprofits, and political clients. She is an on-air political contributor at CNN and previously has been a contributor to Fox News Channel and ABC News. She currently writes the newsletter “Codebook” on Substack and is the author of, “The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Keep Up).” Read the transcript here. Subscribe to our Substack here.

2 apr.

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1 tim 4 min

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