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Kanal • 6 program

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−4 d

The U.S-Israel War with Iran: Is There a Way Out?

More than 100 days into the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, both sides remain trapped between the ever-present danger of serious escalation and an elusive negotiated, pathway out of the conflict. As negotiations stall, Iran and the U.S. are still struggling over core issues while Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz have emerged as significant triggers for escalation. What are the major obstacles standing in way of a U.S.-Iran agreement? Are U.S. objectives aligned with Israel? And what are the prospects for turning a short-term deal into a durable agreement?  Join Aaron David Miller as he engages the Brookings Institution’s Suzanne Maloney and the Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour in a wide-ranging conversation on these and other issues, on Carnegie Connects.

−4 d

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52 min
3 juni · Bonusinnehåll

Can Europe Rival the United States and China?

Europe is stuck between the United States’ market-driven dynamism and China’s state-led industrial strategy. Rosa Balfour, Noah Barkin, and Anu Bradford debate whether Europe can leverage its rulemaking power and emerging industrial agenda into genuine competitiveness. Anu Bradford, Noah Barkin, May 27, 2026, “Can Europe Compete with the United States and China?,” Carnegie Europe. Noah Barkin, January 6, 2026, "Watching China in Europe—January 2026," German Marshall Fund. Noah Barkin, December 1, 2025, "As Europe Dithers, the Cost of Derisking from China Rises," Rhodium Group. Noah Barkin, January 16, 2025, "Trump and the Europe-US-China Triangle," Rhodium Group. Anu Bradford, 2023, "Digital Empires. The Global Battle to Regulate Technology," Oxford University Press. Anu Bradford, 2023, "Europe’s Digital Constitution," Virginia Journal of International Law, Volume 64. Anu Bradford, 2019, "The Brussels Effect. How the European Union Rules the World," Oxford University Press. Rosa Balfour, February 8, 2026, "Dependence on the US is Deeply Rooted in the European Mindset," Le Monde. Rosa Balfour, January 24, 2026, "The EU Finally Used an Economic Threat Against Trump. But the Markets Forced His Climbdown," The Guardian. Rosa Balfour, April 30, 2025, "Europe Tried to Trump-Proof Itself. Now It’s Crafting a Plan B.," Emissary, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

3 juni · Bonusinnehåll

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59 min
−1 d

How Iran Can Get Nukes – on Trump's Watch

The U.S. and Israel just fought a second war over Iran's nuclear program—and one of the world's leading nuclear experts says America lost. Iran's uranium stockpile sits fully intact in tunnels too deep to reach, and Tehran walked away with more leverage in nuclear talks. James Acton, a physicist and longtime analyst of Iran’s program, joins host Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to give a detailed update on this crisis. Has the new supreme leader already decided to build a weapon? How quickly could Iran “break out” or “sneak out” to the bomb? And why does Acton now expect more wars—followed by a nuclear detonation? Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: James Acton: https://x.com/james_acton32?lang=en

−1 d

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1 tim 8 min
18 juni

Why Armenia Voted For a Pro-Europe Future

While Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan campaigned on a pro-Europe platform in the pivotal vote, the opposition wanted to see the country take a more pro-Russia course. Despite clumsy Russian attempts to influence the outcome of the elections, Pashinyan was victorious. What does his win mean for Armenia, the ongoing peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Russia’s ability to project power in the South Caucasus?

18 juni

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34 min
11 juni

Worlds Apart? The U.S. and Israel on Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon

As the U.S. led war with Iran approaches its fourth month, poised somewhere between escalation and a possible diplomatic off ramp, no relationship has been more important than the Trump administration’s with Israel. Are American and Israeli tactics and strategy on Iran unaligned, if not fundamentally at odds? What about on Lebanon and Gaza? And where does the relationship between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu stand, especially as Israel heads toward critical elections this fall? Join Aaron David Miller as engages the Institute for National Security Studies’ Danny Citrinowicz in a wide-ranging conversation analyzing the current state of the alliance and where the U.S.-Israel relationship goes from here, on Carnegie Connects.

11 juni

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50 min
−3 d

Why Is the U.S. Restricting Access to Frontier AI?

The U.S. decision to restrict access to some of Anthropic's latest AI models over national security concerns directly affects EU-U.S. cooperation in cyberspace. Rym Momtaz, Raluca Csernatoni, and Louise Marie Hurel discuss what this means for Europe's strategic autonomy and technological sovereignty. [00:00:00] Intro, [00:01:01] The Securitization of Frontier AI, [00:18:12] Different Access Levels to Frontier AI Models, [00:26:04] Government vs. Public Access to Frontier AI. Raluca Csernatoni, June 23, 2026, “Europe Needs a Strategy for its Turn to New Defense Tech,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Louise Marie Hurel, June 22, 2026, “Gatekeeping the Frontier: When AI Access Becomes a National Security Concern,” Royal United Services Institute. Louise Marie Hurel, Elijah Glantz, and Daniel Cuthbert, “Developing a Framework for Secure Third-Party Access to Frontier AI,” Royal United Services Institute. Rym Momtaz, ed., May 7, 2026, “Taking the Pulse: Is it Worth it for Europeans to Placate Trump?,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Rym Momtaz, May 5, 2026, “Europeans Are Quiet Quitting the United States,”Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Raluca Csernatoni, April 16, 2026, “The Fog of AI War,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Louise Marie Hurel, Pia Hüsch, et al., March 16, 2026, “Brief, Bold, and Beautiful? Reactions on the U.S. National Cyber Strategy,” Royal United Services Institute. Raluca Csernatoni, October 3, 2025, “Corporate Geopolitics: When Billionaires Rival States,” Strategic Europe, Carnegie Europe. Raluca Csernatoni et al., September 1, 2025, “Tech Diplomacy 2.0: Examining the Intersections Between Industry and Governments in International Relations,” International Journal of Cyber Diplomacy. Raluca Csernatoni, June 2, 2025, “Can the EU Achieve its Tech Ambitions?,” Carnegie Europe.

−3 d

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36 min
12 juni

How a U.S.-China War Would Unfold

A U.S.-China war over Taiwan would be catastrophic for all sides and the world. Preventing such a war requires understanding how it might unfold—from start to finish—including worst-case scenarios. How much warning would there be? Where might China strike first? Which countries join the fight? Can Taiwan defend its coasts? Would nuclear threats determine the outcome? Charles Hooper is a retired U.S. general who served as one of the Pentagon’s top China strategists and spent years living in the country. He joined Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to give a step-by-step scenario for the war that no one wants. Find the episode transcript, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/how-a-us-china-war-would-unfold Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Lieutenant General (Ret.) Charles “Hoop” Hooper: https://x.com/LTG_CHooper 00:00 Introduction 01:42 Understanding China Through Military Engagement 09:54 How a Taiwan Conflict Could Begin 20:27 U.S. and Allied Responses 35:04 Global Economic Impact 39:03 Taiwan's Defense Prospects 47:14 Nuclear Escalation Risks 52:28 Avoiding Conflict and Looking Ahead

12 juni

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56 min
16 apr.

Winners and Losers: Russia, China, and Europe Respond to the Iran War

Seven weeks into the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, and with an uneasy ceasefire in place, it may be too early to predict conclusive winners and losers. How are Russia and China, two of Iran’s closet allies, faring in the balance sheet as the war drags on? And what of Europe, especially France, Germany, and Britain, who appeared blindsided by the war are now under pressure to support the United States’ war aims? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Carnegie’s Rosa Balfour, Evan Feigenbaum, and Alexander Gabuev to unpack how these major powers are relating to the current conflict and how the Trump administration is responding to them, on Carnegie Connects.

16 apr.

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48 min
5 juni

The Real Middle East Crisis Hasn't Started Yet

The wars unleashed by October 7th have left the Middle East deeply fractured—Iran battered and defiant, Gaza destroyed, Israel militarized, the Gulf insecure and divided. And an even bigger disruption lies just ahead: the oil revenues that built the modern Arab world will halve by 2050, forcing countries to redesign themselves. Marwan Muasher—a former foreign minister of Jordan and now a VP at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace—joins The World Unpacked to make sense of a region in flux. He explains why Washington should get tougher on Israel, Gulf countries may already have peaked in power, and the end of oil could be a good thing. Like and subscribe to our channel: https://bit.ly/38sljlH Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/in-the-new-middle-east-no-one-is-in-charge Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Marwan Muasher: https://x.com/MarwanMuasher

5 juni

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1 tim 6 min
13 maj

The Trump-Xi Summit: Are We Reading China Right?

President Donald Trump is in Beijing for a delayed but much anticipated summit with China's President Xi Jinping. A successful meeting—let alone a functional and effective relationship with Beijing—will depend on America reading Xi's China right. Beyond avoiding war with Washington, what does Xi want in his relationship with the United States? How do issues like the U.S. war with Iran, differences on Taiwan, and relations with Russia shape Xi's strategy? And what are America's core interests in its China's policy? Join Aaron David Miller as he sits down with David Rennie, the Economist's geopolitics editor, author of The Telegram column, and former bureau chief in Beijing, on the next Carnegie Connects.

13 maj

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54 min

Carnegie scholars and their global network of experts give their takes on foreign policy issues around the world.