Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

  1. −16 h

    Milton Berg: I Have Evidence Market Has Likely Bottomed | Why Milton’s Long Semis, Korea, Nasdaq, and More (With Caveats), and Why He Thinks Gold has made a Multi-year Top

    Milton Berg, one of Wall Street's legendary market technicians, returns to Monetary Matters to explain why he believes the recent crash across the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, KOSPI, and semiconductor stocks has already bottomed — and why he's still positioned long despite major caveats. The positive divergence call: Milton breaks down why the S&P 500's July 29th low held above its June 9th low even as the Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) made new lows — a classic technical signal he says points to higher prices ahead. The 1987 crash comparison: Using historical crash-low data, Milton shows how markets rarely V-bottom and go straight up — and lays out why the current setup looks more like 1987 (a retest of the lows) than the COVID V-shaped recovery. The "exhaustive gap" warning: Despite his bullish lean, Milton flags a specific gap pattern in the Nasdaq 100 and KOSPI that has historically signaled short-term tops — and explains what would need to happen for it to resolve bullishly instead. Inside his trading model: Milton walks through his systematic buy-signal model, including a real trade history that turned $10,000 into over $1.15 billion, and unpacks how his signals performed (and failed) around 2008 and other historic drawdowns. His current portfolio positioning: Milton details his exact allocations — long the KOSPI/EWY, Russell 2000, S&P Midcaps, Nasdaq 100, SOXX, and S&P 500 — and explains why he flipped from short to long on July 29th and 30th. Gold, silver, and bond yields: Beyond equities, Milton shares his latest technical read on precious metals and where he sees long-term bond yields heading. Why retail investor behavior matters right now: Milton highlights a retail selling data point — the highest since 2022 — and explains why heavy retail capitulation is historically a bullish signal for stocks. Follow Milton Berg on X https://x.com/BergMilton Follow Milton Berg Edge on X https://x.com/MiltonBergEdgeMilton Berg Edge website https://miltonbergedge.com/ Milton Berg Advisors website https://miltonberg.com/ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez Disclaimers Milton Berg Edge is a newsletter (“Newsletter”) owned and published by Milton Berg Advisors, LLC (MBA), doing business as “Milton Berg Edge” (“MB Edge,” “firm,” “we,” “our,” and “us”). Milton Berg Advisors, LLC is registered as an investment advisor in the States of Florida and New York. Registration as an investment advisor does not imply any level of skill or training. No portion of the material may be distributed or reproduced without express written permission by Milton Berg Advisors, LLC. (MBA). MBA believes the information and data contained in its materials are reliable but provides them “as is” and without guarantees. MILTON BERG ADVISORS, LLC, DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS AND IMPLIED, including warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. MBA and its agents shall not be liable for any loss resulting from reliance on the contents. MBA does not warrant or make any representations concerning the accuracy, likely results, or reliability of the use of the materials presented herein or on its website. The material reflects opinions as of the date of each, and they will not necessarily be updated as views or information change. All opinions are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform due diligence before trading. MBA may over time modify its approach to evaluating investment opportunities. The Newsletter is a subscription based publication that contains (i) our general commentary and opinion on broad-based market trends and other factors affecting the domestic investment markets in the United States; (ii) answers and reactions to subscriber submitted questions and comments; and (iii) the actual trading activity and net performance of our proprietary investment model (as traded within an account that is actively managed by the firm) and the backtested, hypothetical performance of the model (the “Model”). The contents of the Newsletter and our website (“Website,” and collectively with the Newsletter, the “Content”) are for informational and educational purposes only. No portion of the Content should be construed as investment advice or recommendations tailored to the financial circumstances, investment needs, objectives, and/or limitations of any particular subscriber. Investing in securities involves the risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The materials are not designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. The materials do not address the suitability of any particular investment for any particular investor and are not intended to be the primary basis for investment decisions. Investors should seek professional advice before making investment decisions. The statements in videos or documents shared through the materials presented shall not be considered as an objective or independent explanation of the matters.  Please see our full disclaimers at https://www.miltonbergedge.com/disclaimers/

    Milton Berg: I Have Evidence Market Has Likely Bottomed | Why Milton’s Long Semis, Korea, Nasdaq, and More (With Caveats), and Why He Thinks Gold has made a Multi-year Top
  2. −5 d

    Misunderstood Stocks in Data Center Power, Cybersecurity, and Payments | Dean & Deiya Pernas

    Monetary Matters listeners can get 20% off subscriptions for one year here (billed quarterly): https://pernasresearch.com/register/monetary-matters/?coupon=monetarymatters In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack Farley sits down with Deiya and Dean Pernas of Pernas Research to discuss their contrarian investment strategies and overarching market themes. The brothers delve into the massive energy demands of AI data centers, highlighting "bring your own power" solutions and infrastructure needs over traditional semiconductor plays. Additionally, Deiya explores the evolving landscape of cybersecurity and software in the age of AI, noting that while AI threatens some legacy software moats, it creates immense opportunities for exposure management platforms like Tenable and specialized marketplaces like Upwork. The conversation also unpacks the payments sector, specifically emphasizing the robust growth of cross-border money movement through fintechs like Wise and Remitly as they actively disrupt traditional correspondent banking. Throughout the interview, the Pernas brothers emphasize the importance of independent, buy-side research and the value of finding high-conviction, small-to-mid-cap stocks that the broader market may have mispriced. Recorded July 28, 2026. Follow Pernas Research on X https://x.com/pernasresearch Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Misunderstood Stocks in Data Center Power, Cybersecurity, and Payments | Dean & Deiya Pernas
  3. 4 aug.

    Victor Haghani on Death of Random Walk, and Passive, Buybacks, and LTCM

    Victor Haghani — founder of Elm Wealth, co-author of “The Missing Billionaires” and former founding partner of Long-Term Capital Management — joins Monetary Matters to explain why the stock market doesn't follow a random walk. Drawing on his new paper "Who Killed the Random Walk?", Victor lays out a model where value investors, static asset allocators, and "extrapolators" interact to produce the excess volatility, momentum, and boom-bust cycles that classical finance theory can't explain. Jack and Victor debate whether passive investing is really to blame for market distortions, why stock buybacks are propping up the entire market, and why Elm Wealth's own models say US equities should only return about 6% a year despite blistering AI-driven earnings growth. Victor also breaks down the strange truth that "return chasing" and momentum investing sound identical but perform in opposite ways — and reveals how Elm actually allocates client capital across US and international stocks today. Recorded before Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness hedge fund imploded on a leveraged AI trade, Victor's answer about what really went wrong at LTCM in 1998 turned out to be eerily well-timed. Recorded July 21, 2026. Victor Haghani (Elm Wealth) on X https://x.com/ElmWealth Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 “The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions”: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1119747910?lv=shuf&channelId=500&plpRedirect=mhFallback Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Victor Haghani on Death of Random Walk, and Passive, Buybacks, and LTCM
  4. 29 juli

    Mum’s The Word: Kathryn Rooney Vera on Fed’s Second Meeting under Kevin Warsh, Plus Earnings Breakdown (Live Replay)

    In this episode, Jack sits down with Kathryn Rooney Vera, Chief Market Strategist at StoneX Group, to unpack the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates and Chair Warsh's transition toward a quieter, laissez-faire communication style. Kathryn shares her macroeconomic outlook, forecasting that we may still see rate hikes post-election unless widespread AI adoption delivers a significant productivity boost to offset inflation. Later in the show, Jack is joined by Max Wiethe for a live, unfiltered reaction to the latest mega-cap tech earnings from Microsoft and Meta. They analyze Microsoft's massive revenue and 43% Azure cloud growth, weighing these strong figures against the company's aggressive $41 billion in quarterly capital expenditures. Jack then bluntly breaks down Meta's quarterly results, labeling it a "disaster" due to a 55% surge in costs, an 8% drop in operating income, and unexpectedly weak forward guidance. Finally, the duo wraps up with a look at the semiconductor space, assessing how these fluctuating AI investments are directly impacting chip and equipment stocks like Arm Holdings and Lam Research. Kathryn Rooney Vera on X https://x.com/KRooneyVera Kathryn Rooney Vera on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/kathrynrooneyvera/ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Max Wiethe on X https://x.com/maxwiethe Other People’s Money on X https://x.com/OPMpod Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Mum’s The Word: Kathryn Rooney Vera on Fed’s Second Meeting under Kevin Warsh, Plus Earnings Breakdown (Live Replay)
  5. 28 juli

    Luke Gromen: Yield Curve Control is the Only Way to Stop a Global Bond Crisis

    Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market. Gromen argues that off-balance sheet liabilities, such as baby boomer retirements and surging veterans' benefits, are colliding with massive defense spending to force a dangerous inflationary spiral. He unpacks how "defense stimmies" from nations like Japan and Germany are turning historical creditors into aggressive bond sellers, putting immense pressure on yields. Throughout the conversation, Gromen also issues a stark warning about the AI tech bubble, the incoming policies of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why China's massive gold accumulation is a major red flag for the US dollar. Read The Forest for the Trees: https://fftt-llc.com Follow Luke Gromen on X: https://x.com/LukeGromen Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:52 Bond Selloff Explained 04:54 Debt Spiral Mechanics 08:22 Global Defense Stimulus 09:58 Real Yields Reality Check 13:20 Fed Chair Fantasy 15:34 Sponsor Break Fundrise 16:57 AI Trade Meets China 20:52 Labor Data Warning 23:02 AI Backstop Coming 26:28 No Long Bond Floor 30:44 Gold Revaluation Debate 35:27 China Gold Buying Surge 36:31 Oil Reserves And Leverage 39:19 Pain Contest with The West 43:22 Inequality and Instability 47:18 Dollar Down Yield Trap 50:03 Buy the Dip 52:12 Gold Targets and Gradualism 54:50 Bitcoin Lags Tech Risk 58:47 Warsh Fed No Good Options 01:02:55 What Breaks First? 01:05:33 Bonds Are the Biggest Bubble

    Luke Gromen: Yield Curve Control is the Only Way to Stop a Global Bond Crisis
  6. 26 juli

    Debt Service Coverage in Private Markets Is Improving, Actually | Nicholas Brooks

    In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with Nicholas Brooks, Head of Economic and Investment Research at ICG, to discuss the true health of private credit and corporate balance sheets. Brooks argues that underlying corporate fundamentals and EBITDA growth remain highly resilient against macroeconomic and geopolitical noise. He notes that corporate interest coverage ratios are stabilizing in Europe and actually improving in the United States, pointing away from any imminent, systemic private sector risks. Instead, Brooks warns that the most significant medium-term threat to the global economy stems from soaring government debt and unchecked fiscal deficits, which could spark future market volatility and further weaken the U.S. dollar. The conversation also explores how massive capital expenditures in artificial intelligence infrastructure are currently acting as a protective buffer for the broader economy, even as the ultimate, long-term impacts on worker productivity remain uncertain. Finally, Jack provides his own post-interview analysis, highlighting the immense influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on corporate debt metrics and exploring the reflexive nature of capital inflows within private markets. Recorded July 13, 2026. Nicholas Brooks on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-brooks-4738a927/ Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96 Nicholas Brooks works: “Recent US Credit Market Dislocation: Systemic or Idiosyncratic?”: https://www.icgam.com/2025/10/24/recent-us-credit-market-dislocation-systemic-or-idiosyncratic/ “Middle East Update: Implications of the war for the global economy and markets”: https://www.icgam.com/2026/05/13/middle-east-update-implications-of-the-war-for-the-global-economy-and-markets/ BIS paper on Debt Levels (“BIS Working Papers No 1235 Aggregate debt servicing and the limit on private credit”): https://www.bis.org/publ/work1235.pdf Follow Monetary Matters on: Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5 YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Debt Service Coverage in Private Markets Is Improving, Actually | Nicholas Brooks
  7. 22 juli

    Interest Rates to 10%: Why the Treasury Market is the Real Speculative Bubble (Not AI) | Russell Clark

    Learn more about Teucrium’s Soybean ETF (SOYB) here: https://teucrium.com/soyb Free E-book from Teucrium: https://insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with hedge fund manager Russell Clark to discuss why he believes the U.S. Treasury market is a much larger and more dangerous speculative bubble than AI. Clark details his macroeconomic outlook, arguing that a shifting political landscape focused on 7% wage growth and lower living costs will eventually push the 10-year Treasury yield up to an astonishing 10%. To stabilize affordability for younger generations, he predicts real estate will remain flat nominally while heavily declining in real terms. Clark also breaks down the massive capital expenditures in AI, viewing them as defensive strategies by legacy tech giants to protect their moats rather than mere speculation. Finally, Clark also warns about sectors reliant on low rates and the severe illiquidity and mispriced risks currently lurking within the private credit and private equity markets. Read Russell’s Substack: https://www.russell-clark.com Follow Russell Clark on X: https://x.com/rampagingruss Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod SOYB Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/soyb Investing in SOYB involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodity investments are subject to significant volatility. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Teucrium Soybean Fund before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the Fund. This material must be proceeded or accompanied by the prospectus. The prospectus is available atteucrium.com/soyb. Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:38 Why Treasuries Look Risky 04:33 Foreign Reserves Shift from Gold to Bonds 08:59 Politics Turns Inflationary 14:12 Japan Leads 16:09 Wage Inflation Drives Yields 20:37 Sponsor Break SOYB 21:58 High Real Rates New Normal 26:14 Trading Long View vs Noise 29:09 Housing Tug of War 34:02 Politics Converge Anyway 36:03 Chips Are New Oil 38:38 Is AI a Bubble? 44:12 AI and Wage Politics 50:37 Strategic AI Spending 54:17 Leverage Unwind Risks 59:29 Private Credit Red Flags 01:04:13 Wrap Up and Links

    Interest Rates to 10%: Why the Treasury Market is the Real Speculative Bubble (Not AI) | Russell Clark

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Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

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