Notes on the Week Ahead

Dr. David Kelly
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Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.

  1. −4 D

    Real Economy Challenges

    Last week saw dramatic moves in financial markets. Gold and silver, which rose very sharply last year and in January, suddenly lurched down before stabilizing. Bitcoin took a nosedive before achieving a significant, although partial, recovery on Friday. Mega-cap tech stocks posted huge earnings gains but announced even more lofty capital spending plans, contributing to a general selloff in the sector. And, at the end of the week, stocks saw a resounding rally, pushing the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average over 50,000 for the first time ever.

    12 min

  2. 2 FEB.

    The Federal Reserve – New Leadership, Same Landscape

    On Friday, the President announced Kevin Warsh as his pick for Fed Chair. Warsh has a track record of hawkishness from his previous stint as Fed governor. He has also annunciated a broad philosophy that the Fed has moved too far from its original mandate by promoting ESG objectives and in enabling excessive federal spending through quantitative easing. That being said, he has argued more recently that the Fed should cut interest rates more aggressively.

    8 min

  3. 26 JAN.

    The Direction of the Fed

    Amidst a torrent of unsettling international and domestic events, the week ahead could be very consequential for the Federal Reserve. The FOMC will hold its first meeting of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday.  While they will likely leave interest rates on hold, any dissents on that decision and their commentary on the economic outlook will provide clues to the direction of short-term interest rates in 2026 and beyond. In addition, this week the President is expected to announce his nominee for Fed Chair, the person who, presuming they are confirmed by the Senate, will lead the Fed over at least the next four years.

    10 min

  4. 20 JAN.

    International Equities: Looking Beneath the Currency Icing

    Americans don’t like fruit cake. This issue comes up every December when Sari, having stolen the job from me, sets about making the family Christmas cake. It is a divine confection - currants, sultanas, cherries, candied peel and almonds, liberally presoaked in whiskey and then folded in with flour, eggs, butter and spices and baked for hours at a low temperature. The scent in the kitchen is intoxicating but temporary as the cake, when cooled, is encased first in almond icing and then in royal icing. It weighs in at a hefty eight pounds and tastes magnificent when I can no longer restrain myself on Christmas Eve or Christmas Morning.

    11 min

  5. 5 JAN.

    A Baseline Forecast for 2026

    Forecasting the economy right now feels a bit like trying to carve a path through thick jungle undergrowth on a foggy day. There are multiple layers of confusion and a forecast has to address these issues first before tracing out a possible path forward.

    11 min

  6. 2025-12-15

    Why Stocks are Outperforming the Economy

    The Red River of the North starts at the confluence of the Bois de Sioux and Otter Tail rivers and forms most of the border between Minnesota and North Dakota. It then crosses into Manitoba and empties into Lake Winnipeg before its waters finally flow into the sea at Hudson Bay. Cities have grown up along its banks including Fargo, Grand Forks and Winnipeg and their residents are all too aware of one unfortunate feature of the river. Unlike most large U.S. rivers, it flows from south to north.

    11 min

  7. 2025-12-08

    Forecasting the Fed’s Forecasts

    On Wednesday, the Fed will hold its last FOMC meeting of the year. Their actions and communications could move interest rates across the yield curve and so are important for investors.

    12 min

  8. 2025-12-01

    The Outlook for Autos

    When I first arrived in America, America seemed to be all about cars. It was the early 1980s, and I had come over from Ireland to do a Ph.D. in economics at Michigan State University. The campus was strewn with the hand-me-down vehicles of the student body – great gas-guzzling behemoths rendered hopelessly uncompetitive by the soaring gas prices of the 1970s and fighting a losing battle against Japanese imports. Still, the domestic auto industry was crucial to the U.S. and particularly Michigan, and rising sales numbers, released every 10-days, were monitored as the hopeful early shoots of recovery from the brutal double-barreled recessions of 1980 and 1981-82.

    10 min
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Listen to the latest insights from Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management to help prepare you for the week ahead.

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  • Skapad av
    Dr. David Kelly
  • Aktiva år
    2010 - 2026
  • Avsnitt
    329
  • Åldersgräns
    Barnvänligt
  • Copyright
    © Copyright 2019 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
  • Programmets webbplats
    Notes on the Week Ahead

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