The Weekly Fix

RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc.
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Today’s markets move fast. To keep you up to speed each week, Andrzej Skiba, CFA, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC Global Asset Management, and members of his investment team will deliver forward looking market commentary and insights into what’s driving fixed income markets over the coming week.

  1. −5 d

    Rates may have peaked. AI's credit boom is just getting started.

    Fed hikes may be overpriced, but yields stay supported by AI-driven growth. IG carry remains strong as record supply tests spreads. The Treasury curve is expected to steepen in the second half of 2026: front-end yields may ease as oil-driven inflation pressure subsides and markets have potentially priced in too many Fed hikes under Chair Warsh's data-dependent regime, while robust AI-related investment and productivity-driven growth should keep yields stable to slightly higher at the 10-year and beyond.Investment grade credit spreads remain tight — index OAS at 74 basis points with a yield-to-worst of 5.22% — yet strong company fundamentals and yield-based demand have absorbed the heaviest supply environment in years, with US IG gross issuance already crossing $1.26 trillion year-to-date, matching the record pace set in 2020, and July alone forecasted to bring approximately $130 billion in new supply — the busiest July in a decade.Technology and data center bonds have become the defining theme in IG credit for 2026: hyperscalers are expected to borrow as much as $190 billion in the bond market this year alone, and while the team sees this pace continuing, they are building exposure selectively — targeting wider spread entry points among the highest-quality issuers while remaining overweight banks, defensive sectors, corporate hybrids, and insurance, and largely avoiding deep cyclicals and BDC bonds.

    4 min

  2. 23 juni

    The rate cut era is over

    The Federal Reserve's pivot under new leadership is reshaping the fixed income landscape, and investors need to be ready. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down what changed at the Fed's latest meeting and how investors should think about navigating this shift. Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair delivered a hawkish surprise, with officials now projecting higher rates through 2027 and markets pricing in a rate hike as soon as September.The Fed pulled back on guidance and moved to discretionary bond purchases, creating less certainty about future moves and more potential volatility in short-term Treasury yields.While a potential US-Iran deal has pushed gas prices below $4 for the first time since March, tight spreads and lingering inflation pressures still call for caution in this environment.

    4 min

  3. 16 juni

    The AI job shock nobody’s talking about

    The Fed's dual mandate faces unique challenges as artificial intelligence (AI) adoption creates new uncertainty around employment and rate trajectory. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how AI-driven economic transformation is reshaping the outlook for rates and credit markets. Strong fundamentals support elevated rates - US gross domestic product (GDP) growth fueled by AI capex, low unemployment, solid corporate earnings, and consumer cash balances higher than pre-COVID levels across all income bands (even after adjusting for inflation).AI adoption uncertainty is the critical unknown - The Fed's dual mandate of full employment and price stability will inevitably be tested as AI reshapes the job market, creating unpredictability in both economic direction and rate trajectory.High yield offers a potentially compelling income opportunity - With rates elevated and portfolios shorter in duration, investors are increasingly attracted to the steady cash flow that high yield can provide in today's environment.

    3 min

  4. 9 juni

    When AI becomes an infrastructure debt story

    Capital formation replaces innovation as AI's next frontier: a new $85B raise and $1.5 trillion financing gap signal that hyperscaler balance sheets alone cannot fund the infrastructure buildout, forcing debt into utilities, private credit, and securitized markets. Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, examines how AI is transitioning from a technology story to a capital markets story, and why this shift matters for fixed income investors navigating the next phase of infrastructure financing. AI's capital requirements now exceed what even the most profitable tech companies can self-fund, forcing a migration into investment-grade bonds, utility debt, infrastructure finance, and private credit markets.A major technology company’s $85B equity raise signals a fundamental shift where access to capital becomes as critical as access to technology, echoing historical patterns from railroads to fiber networks.Fixed income investors face a critical question: will AI monetization arrive fast enough to prevent an overleveraged ecosystem, or are we witnessing the early stages of a new infrastructure debt regime?

    5 min

  5. 2 juni

    The mortgage market’s quiet revolution

    Built for this moment: Mortgage-backed securities are earning their place in fixed-income portfolios amidst an uncertain rate environment. Teri Savage, Senior Trader on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks how securitized sectors are navigating sticky inflation and shifting Fed expectations. Agency mortgages continue to act as a vital defensive anchor for portfolios during periods of broader macro uncertainty. The upward move in 30-year mortgage rates reflects a market transitioning to a higher-for-longer narrative regarding monetary policy. With contained net supply and stable prepayments, mortgage spreads present a highly compelling alternative to corporate credit.

    5 min

  6. 19 maj

    Stocks up, bonds down, and the Fed's not moving

    Prolonged Middle East tensions drive aggressive bond selloffs across global markets, but strong corporate earnings and elevated yields keep high yield resilient amid broader fixed income volatility. Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, explores how geopolitical fatigue is reshaping market dynamics, the widening Fed-ECB policy split, and why high yield continues to outperform amid bond market turbulence. Geopolitical standoff in the Middle East is wearing thin on markets, driving aggressive bond selloffs as inflation fears mount despite underlying US economic resilience.The Fed-ECB monetary policy divide is widening, with Europe likely facing inevitable rate hikes while the Fed maintains a cautious hold stance and watches incoming data.High yield stands as the year's clear fixed income winner, supported by strong corporate earnings, elevated yields providing carry cushion, and AI-driven market momentum.

    5 min

  7. 12 maj

    AI concentration risk: don’t get over hype-scaled

    The rapid AI infrastructure buildout draws capital from bonds, banks, and utilities – creating potential for concentration risk exposure. Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down how Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure funding is reverberating throughout public and private credit markets. Hyperscalers are tapping public bonds, private infrastructure capital, and bank construction loans simultaneously—turning what looks like diversified exposure into overlapping bets on the same AI buildout theme.Banks and utilities are ramping up debt issuance, as utilities fund rising power demands and banks manage expanding balance sheets, compounding market pressure across sectors.What once appeared as well-diversified cross-sector allocations may now represent concentrated exposure to a single mega-theme, as the AI buildout channels through every corner of the credit market.

    4 min

  8. 5 maj

    Unprecedented Fed discord signals uncertain road ahead

    Historic Fed discord meets Middle East uncertainty: The most dissenting votes since 1992 expose deep divisions as geopolitical risks and energy prices complicate the path forward for U.S. monetary policy. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down last week's Fed meeting where rates held steady, but unprecedented internal disagreement and Middle East tensions introduced new market volatility. Fed members showed record division on policy direction—the first time since 1992 the committee has revealed such internal disagreement, with markets reacting swiftly to the unexpected discord.Middle East conflict now officially factors into Fed thinking, with the statement acknowledging geopolitical uncertainty and rising global energy prices as key considerations for future policy decisions.Leadership transition unfolds as Kevin Warsh's nomination advances through the Senate while Chair Powell commits to staying on as governor temporarily amid legal pressures facing the institution.

    4 min
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Om

Today’s markets move fast. To keep you up to speed each week, Andrzej Skiba, CFA, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income at RBC Global Asset Management, and members of his investment team will deliver forward looking market commentary and insights into what’s driving fixed income markets over the coming week.

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  • Skapad av
    RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc.
  • Aktiva år
    2023 - 2026
  • Avsnitt
    136
  • Åldersgräns
    Barnvänligt
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    © Copyright 2026 RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc.
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    The Weekly Fix

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