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    BBC Sounds

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  • 687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

    3 days ago

    687. Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?

    The promise is that they can beat the experts at predicting inflation, elections, and FDA approvals. But right now, roughly 90 percent of the action is sports. Is this a future we want to bet on? Stephen Dubner speaks with, among others, the C.E.O. of Kalshi. (Part one of a two-part series.)   SOURCES:Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University.Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi.Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi.  RESOURCE:"Kalshi and the Rise of Macro Markets," by Anthony Diercks, Jared Dean Katz, and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board, 2026)."Slowly, Then All At Once: What Mamdani's Victory Tells Us About Information Aggregation," (Kalshi Research, 2026)."Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs," by Robin Hanson (2000)."The Use of Knowledge in Society," by Friedrich Hayek (American Economic Review, 1945).  EXTRAS:"The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019)."How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future," by Freakonomics Radio (2016)."The Folly of Prediction," by Freakonomics Radio (2011). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

  • From Mao and Nixon to Xi and Trump: A history of China-US trade

    1 day ago

    From Mao and Nixon to Xi and Trump: A history of China-US trade

    With Presidents Xi and Trump expected to meet in the United States this week, Will Bain looks back on the history of trade between the two great nations. It's always been fraught with controversy but there's also been a need or desire to get along. President Nixon was the first to visit China in 1972 and spoke with passion about the possibilities for the future between them. Trade then grew quickly but it became very one sided as China developed as an industrial nation. There have been several attempts to curb its dominance but cheaper production also meant cheaper goods for consumers. Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute joins Will to assess how they have attempted to strike the right balance.

  • Catching My Teacher: 1. The golden boy

    Season 13, Episode 1

    Catching My Teacher: 1. The golden boy

    Deep friendships and memories are made at a boarding school among the rice paddies in Lombok, Indonesia. But the lesson they’re taught to remember most is: “We hear and we obey.” And the person they’re expected to obey is the founder and headmaster — the man they’re told to call “Abah”, or “Father”. But when Yusron, the school’s golden boy, gets in touch over instagram with Zia — a fellow former student — she reveals something that begins to unravel all that he believes in. This series of World of Secrets contains references to sexual abuse. Listen to the Indonesian language version of the podcast here: https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/podcasts/p0btnmzx Voice actors: Prilly Latuconsina, Omara Esteghlal, Paul Agusta. Presenter: Rebecca Henschke Series producers: Endang Nurdin and Rebecca Henschke Sound recordings: Dwiki Marta Original music: Alffy Rev Sound design: Andy Fell Executive producer: Neil McCarthy Commissioning senior producers: Anne Dixey and Sarah Green Commissioning editor: Jon Manel

  • The dictators' survival guide

    2 days ago

    The dictators' survival guide

    Xi Jinping is known to be a ruthless leader. In the last five years alone, China’s richest man, Jack Ma, China’s defence minister and the country’s foreign minister have all abruptly disappeared - some never to be seen in public again. Millions of Communist officials have been purged since Xi came to power. But one man was thought to be untouchable: the head of China’s military forces, Zhang Youxia. A childhood friend of Xi’s, Zhang was allowed to stay in his post, even as other military officials were disappearing. That is, until he, too, was suddenly gone. Celia Hatton investigates why Zhang was purged and looks inside and outside China for answers. She discovers there's a kind of pattern that dictators and autocratic rulers use to hold on to power. And this, she argues, can be a useful tool in predicting global military aggression.

  • 35+不中危!职业转型、现金流、健康,人生风险管理指南 | 上海听友会

    5 days ago

    35+不中危!职业转型、现金流、健康,人生风险管理指南 | 上海听友会

    过了35岁,你的人生是更好了还是更糟了?所谓的中年危机,我们似乎更多在讨论“危”,却很少讨论“机”,今天这一期带你转危为机,做好人生风险管理,稳稳当当地活出自己的精彩! 8月30日,我们在上海为35+的朋友们策划了一场线下听友会,邀请到了播客《截胡不截财》主播Jeff、资深保险代理人佳隽,一起探讨人到中年最关心的三大课题:职业发展、资产配置、健康管理。在这场活动里,我们对「风险」和「责任」有了全新的认识:人生波动在所难免,真正对自己和家人负责任的做法,是提前建立好兜底机制,中年人最应该怕的不是跑不快了,而是突然负伤、被迫离场。 那么到底该如建立这个兜底机制,才能让你有更多底气去探索人生的下半场?赶紧收听起来! 【本期财富密码】 04:26 开场互动,三个问题检视你当下的人生处境 06:13 三位嘉宾人生周期大对照!原来每个人都有自己的时区 18:05 风险等于不确定性,不确定性里也有机会 21:02 人生有限风险绝对不能触碰,比如坏人 24:36 佳隽转型做保险最大的原因,是父亲第三次患癌而离世 25:59 责任responsibility=回应response+能力ability 27:06 Jeff是上有老下有小的“三明治”,时间精力是最稀缺的 32:22 以佳隽转行做保险为例,教你分析你想去的行业值不值得入 37:12 小辉发现,35岁以后身边很多朋友其实是被迫创业 37:36 如何选择不同的搞钱项目?三圈+四象限思维图值得参考 41:49 上述三圈的优先级排序:可做>想做>能做 44:54 人生就是一场大类资产配置 47:39 拿回人生主导权,从思考人生目标开始 54:44 从三倍做多海力士到三倍做多健康 55:28 股价长期来看是称重机,短期来看是投票机 56:52 给普通人的投资建议:不要一次性押注任何一个赛道,分批押注大类宽基指数 58:21 学投资越早越好,吃亏一定要趁早! 1:00:51 标准普尔四象限的家庭资产配置思路 1:04:52 钱是一种社会资源,与其被大公司割韭菜,不如买大公司的股票 1:09:41 保险是带有杠杆的救生艇 1:11:44 人生不同阶段的保险配置思路 1:16:08 稳定就是一切不稳定的来源,积极拥抱变化 1:17:44 一位单身沪漂女性的中危:裁员、失恋、卖房止跌、得乳腺癌 【本期嘉宾】 Jeff:美国Temple大学金融硕士、播客《截胡不截财》主播 佳隽:香港保险代理人、前知名文化公司商业化负责人、重庆妹子、巴黎留子、沪港深生活 【主播介绍】 就是小辉:《搞钱女孩》播客创始人&主播,不断认识和活出自己的ISFP。四川大学哲学系毕业,混过公益、咨询、互联网、疗愈行业,34岁才找到本命赛道的创业练习生。 【本期制作】 shownotes图文:小辉 剪辑:小龙 BGM:Among the Stars-John Klime 欢迎加入我们的听友群,成为“搞蜜”!可以关注公众号【搞钱女孩播客】,扫描自动回复的图片上的二维码,就可以加到小助手,邀请你入群。每天加的人太多了,如显示添加频繁,请耐心等待。

  • Where is Austin Tice? 1. 'We believe he’s alive'

    12 hr ago

    Where is Austin Tice? 1. 'We believe he’s alive'

    American journalist Austin Tice, vanished in Syria, but the US president says he’s alive. For more than a decade Austin's mother Debra has been leading the search for her son. As Josh Baker and Sara Obeidat travel to Syria to help Austin’s mother’s search, a source gives Josh information that might unlock where he is.

  • S3 EP281 台中越式 KTV 怎麼玩?兩小時兩三千,Jimmy 哥跟洨弟把包廂變成康輔社

    22 hr ago

    S3 EP281 台中越式 KTV 怎麼玩?兩小時兩三千,Jimmy 哥跟洨弟把包廂變成康輔社

    會員網站 http://fattyinsider.com鑰匙圈跟會員購買連結 https://myship.7-11.com.tw/cart/confirm/GM2608013806004- 會員網站現在除了購買序號,還會整理 Telegram 的近期情報、地圖導航與店家警示。出國前少爬幾百則訊息,先看哪間歇業、哪間整修比較實在。 - 廣州台禽帶老雞闖雅加達 24 小時魚市場,連英文、日文都會講的司機看到目的地都怕,收了 20 萬印尼盾在外面等兩小時,確認人有安全回來才開車。 - 互動房收到真正的「粉絲感謝祭」:最喜歡的成年女優 K 來台,弟兄靠粉絲見面會合照認人,最後還在房間用 iPad 播她自己的作品,直接完成追星終極成就。 - 第一次去台中越式 KTV,建議湊四、五人以上。一番約兩小時,每人基本台費約兩、三千元,小費另外抓預算;人多不只比較省,包廂也比較不會有人乾瞪眼。 - 「保八來十五」不是鎖八個人,而是結帳時至少有八位小姐留在包廂,過程中可能來十二到十五位輪檯。喜歡誰可以留點,想多看幾輪也沒問題。 - Jimmy 哥不是去唱歌,是去辦營隊:九宮格、大骰子、鱷魚、水槍和雨衣整套帶進包廂,連小費都要靠比賽拿,直接把越式 KTV 玩成成人版康輔社。 - 臨時走店沒帶道具也能玩,「半杯、一杯、一杯半」一路猜拳加碼,最高有人喝到六杯;不想只靠酒,就拿現場骰子和公杯自己發明遊戲。 - 台中店家約晚上九點半後才陸續有人上班,十點到十點半進場、玩兩小時最剛好。週五、週六人比狗還多,有人等到凌晨五點還沒玩到,能避就避。 - 最後的老司機守則反而很務實:家人、工作和金錢先顧好,酒店的事留在酒店,兩小時後各自回生活。藥品、保健品與飲酒的聊法都只是節目經驗,真的要吃請先問醫師或藥師。本週教材https://drive.google.com/file/d/19ElbBohFG5iSfo4GTHbnhOvpl82mDdx0/view?usp=sharinghttps://drive.google.com/file/d/1PhEKRBDIngX-S2UO_p846z68r09Nfg0Q/view?usp=sharing長篇投稿連結 https://forms.gle/51tAuTUBtjGunQUW9報名上節目 https://forms.gle/MsWLCBnyeMN7QKzD7 IG : fattyinsider Mail : fattyinsider(at)gmail.com (談話內容不符合傳統善良風俗規範,部分內容含有性交易,未成年請勿收聽)

  • Ep. 1: Strange Things Are Happening

    9 Jun

    Ep. 1: Strange Things Are Happening

    A new breed of worker is quietly clocking in across the United States. They’re writing code. Managing your passwords. Training the next generation of AI models. They’re gaining trust. And access.  On paper, they’re the dream hire. Skilled. Low maintenance. Always remote and often affordable. And by most accounts, they’re doing the work. But strange things are happening. In a new season of To Catch a Thief, host and former lead cybersecurity and digital espionage reporter for The New York Times, Nicole Perlroth, investigates how North Korean agents are infiltrating the global workforce. How did a nuclear-armed regime worm its way onto the payroll of international companies – and why is it so difficult to get them off?  To Catch a Thief is co-produced by Nicole Perlroth and Rubrik in partnership with Pod People. To Catch a Thief was written and produced by Nicole Perlroth, along with Khrista Rypl, T. J. Raphael, Rebecca Chaisson and Sam Gebauer. Additional thanks to Allie Pinel, Fendall Fulton, Krissy Clark, Cai Lee, Eunice Park and Aimee Machado. Editing and Sound Design by Erica Huang. Art direction and design by Ben Long, Gareth Strange and Sarah Burley at the John & Jane Agency, and support from John Leestma.

  • Can we live without our phones?

    3 days ago

    Can we live without our phones?

    For many of us, our phones are the first thing we look at in the morning and the last thing we put down at night. But with growing pressure over screen time and concerns about the impact of social media, tech companies like Meta have agreed to restrictions. In our conversations, we bring together three people who have received treatment for tech addiction. We also hear from those have decided not to use smartphones at all. “To me what’s weird is when a couple go on a date, instead of looking at each other and talking to each other, they’re staring at their own phones and texting people and doing whatever,” Loren in Los Angeles tells us.

  • 685. How to Survive the A.I. Shock

    4 Sept

    685. How to Survive the A.I. Shock

    Gina Raimondo, a former commerce secretary and governor, thinks A.I. will create plenty of jobs in the long run. She also thinks a poorly managed transition could tear the country apart. So she came up with a plan.   SOURCES:Gina Raimondo, co-chair and C.E.O. of RAISE US.  RESOURCES:"What Makes New Work Different from More Work?," by David Autor, Caroline Chin, Anna Salomons, and Bryan Seegmiller (NBER, 2026)."$500 million AI jobs push launches with bipartisan backing," by Christine Mui (POLITICO, 2026)."Gina Raimondo and Eric Holcomb Launch RAISE US, Uniting the Nation’s Leading Employers and Bipartisan Governors Behind American Workers," (RAISE US, 2026)."Young Graduates Face the Grimmest Job Market in Years," (New York Times, 2026)."Why AI Giants Are Investing $500 Million To Retrain American Workforce," by Jon Markman (Forbes, 2026)."Wicker Praises Research, STEM Education Provisions in New CHIPS Act," (U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, 2022).  EXTRAS:"Can A.I. Save Your Life?," by Freakonomics Radio (2026)."Will the Democrats 'Make America Great Again'?," by Freakonomics Radio (2023)."How Do You Reopen a Country?," by Freakonomics Radio (2020)."How to Be a Modern Democrat — and Win," by Freakonomics Radio (2018). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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