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Stanica • Relácie: 6

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pred 4 d.

Iran Will Probably Still Get Nukes – Here’s How

The U.S. and Israel just fought a second war over Iran's nuclear program—and one of the world's leading nuclear experts says America lost. Iran's uranium stockpile sits fully intact in tunnels too deep to reach, and Tehran walked away with more leverage in nuclear talks. James Acton, a physicist and longtime analyst of Iran’s program, joins host Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to give a detailed update on this crisis. Has the new supreme leader already decided to build a weapon? How quickly could Iran “break out” or “sneak out” to the bomb? And why does Acton now expect more wars—followed by a nuclear detonation? Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: James Acton: https://x.com/james_acton32?lang=en

pred 4 d.

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1 h 8 min
18. 6.

Why Armenia Voted For a Pro-Europe Future

While Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan campaigned on a pro-Europe platform in the pivotal vote, the opposition wanted to see the country take a more pro-Russia course. Despite clumsy Russian attempts to influence the outcome of the elections, Pashinyan was victorious. What does his win mean for Armenia, the ongoing peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Russia’s ability to project power in the South Caucasus?

18. 6.

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34 min
12. 6.

How a U.S.-China War Would Unfold

A U.S.-China war over Taiwan would be catastrophic for all sides and the world. Preventing such a war requires understanding how it might unfold—from start to finish—including worst-case scenarios. How much warning would there be? Where might China strike first? Which countries join the fight? Can Taiwan defend its coasts? Would nuclear threats determine the outcome? Charles Hooper is a retired U.S. general who served as one of the Pentagon’s top China strategists and spent years living in the country. He joined Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to give a step-by-step scenario for the war that no one wants. Find the episode transcript, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/how-a-us-china-war-would-unfold Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Lieutenant General (Ret.) Charles “Hoop” Hooper: https://x.com/LTG_CHooper 00:00 Introduction 01:42 Understanding China Through Military Engagement 09:54 How a Taiwan Conflict Could Begin 20:27 U.S. and Allied Responses 35:04 Global Economic Impact 39:03 Taiwan's Defense Prospects 47:14 Nuclear Escalation Risks 52:28 Avoiding Conflict and Looking Ahead

12. 6.

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56 min
15. 5.

Putin Is Losing His Grip on Russia

Russia’s surprising recent Internet shutdown did more than disrupt daily life: it also crippled the regime’s own communications and propaganda. It’s one of a series of strange events—from a diminished Victory Day parade to crackdowns on businesspeople and celebrities—that suggest growing disorder and confusion within the Russian state. Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Moscow insider who quit over the Ukraine War, says that Vladimir Putin has lost focus on running the country. She joins Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to explain the erosion of Russia’s social contract and share stories from her new book From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War Against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite. Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Alexandra Prokopenko: https://x.com/amenka

15. 5.

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51 min
7. 5.

Is NATO Misreading Putin’s Risk Appetite?

As the conflict between the West and Putin’s Russia escalates without guardrails, would the Kremlin dare to launch a military incursion into NATO territory in coming years? With the mercurial Donald Trump at the helm of NATO’s most consequential power, how might NATO react to an attack against a member state? These were the questions addressed in a German war game, Ernstfall, co-hosted by Die Welt newspaper and the German Wargaming Center, which has sparked a lively policy debate inside NATO. Alexander Gabuev, who played Vladimir Putin in the exercise, is joined by the two main architects of the war game to take listeners backstage and discuss the making of Ernstfall and its policy implications. Check out the Politico article about the war game, and read Alex Gabuev’s New York Times piece about it here. Excerpts from the Ernstfall podcast are copyrighted by Die Welt and are reproduced here with permission. Listen to that podcast here.

7. 5.

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57 min
3. 4.

What Trump Really Wants From China

President Trump was meant to fly to Beijing this week for major trade talks, but instead he’s staying home to manage the Iran War. It’s an apt metaphor for America’s decades-long failure to refocus on Asia and reckon with China’s rise. Does Trump have a plan for dealing with America’s top rival? If so, what is it? Ali Wyne is a perceptive analyst of U.S.-China competition and author of America’s Great Power Opportunity. He joined Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to explain why Beijing hasn’t saved Iran; what Washington’s bipartisan “consensus” on China still misses; and how Trump should negotiate when he finally sits down with Xi Jinping.

3. 4.

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52 min
5. 6.

The Real Middle East Crisis Hasn't Started Yet

The wars unleashed by October 7th have left the Middle East deeply fractured—Iran battered and defiant, Gaza destroyed, Israel militarized, the Gulf insecure and divided. And an even bigger disruption lies just ahead: the oil revenues that built the modern Arab world will halve by 2050, forcing countries to redesign themselves. Marwan Muasher—a former foreign minister of Jordan and now a VP at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace—joins The World Unpacked to make sense of a region in flux. He explains why Washington should get tougher on Israel, Gulf countries may already have peaked in power, and the end of oil could be a good thing. Like and subscribe to our channel: https://bit.ly/38sljlH Find the episode transcript and streaming audio, and get the show direct to your inbox, here: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/in-the-new-middle-east-no-one-is-in-charge Host: Follow Jon on X: https://x.com/JonKBateman Guest: Marwan Muasher: https://x.com/MarwanMuasher

5. 6.

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1 h 6 min
24. 04. 2025

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman

While recent diplomatic efforts to bring Ukraine and Russia to a peace deal and the unexpected Easter truce announced by Putin are bearing no fruit, the situation on the battlefield remains the most influential factor in the future trajectory of the war—including diplomatic attempts to bring the conflict to a halt. Donald Trump seems to believe that Ukraine will inevitably lose the war if a peace deal that can satisfy the Kremlin isn’t achieved. But is that really the case? What shape are Ukrainian and Russian forces in in terms of manpower, equipment, and tactics? And what are the potential scenarios for the 2025 campaign?

24. 04. 2025

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42 min
7. 4.

Crude Diplomacy: Oil and the Iran War

More than one month in, the United States and Israel’s war against Iran has resulted in what the International Energy Agency termed the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” Iran’s ability to control what passes through the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted a fifth of the world's daily oil supply, along with the flow of other commodities such as helium, liquid natural gas, and fertilizer, adding to inflationary pressures globally.  Prospects for a diplomatic exit look bleak and military options to fully open the Strait presents formidable challenges. So, what does the current crisis portend for the global supply of oil and hydrocarbons? Who are the big winners and losers as the world tries to adapt to energy market disruptions? And what lessons, if any, can be drawn from the unfolding crisis? Join Aaron David Miller as he engages Helima Croft, head of Global Commodity Strategy and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Research at RBC Capital Markets, on the current crisis and the future of oil and hydrocarbons, on Carnegie Connects.

7. 4.

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49 min
13. 3.

Did Trump Kill International Law – Or Was It Already Dead?

The Iran War marks the second time in two months that Donald Trump decapitated a country without real legal justification. But is this any different from the many times that past U.S. presidents—and other great powers—have violated international law?

13. 3.

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44 min

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Najobľúbenejšie relácie

Iran Will Probably Still Get Nukes – Here’s How

Why Armenia Voted For a Pro-Europe Future

How a U.S.-China War Would Unfold

Putin Is Losing His Grip on Russia

Is NATO Misreading Putin’s Risk Appetite?

What Trump Really Wants From China

The Real Middle East Crisis Hasn't Started Yet

Does Ukraine Need a Ceasefire at Any Cost? With Michael Kofman

Crude Diplomacy: Oil and the Iran War

Did Trump Kill International Law – Or Was It Already Dead?

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