Excess Returns

Excess Returns
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. 6 HR AGO

    30 Times Earnings Isn't Expensive | Chris Mayer & Robert Hagstrom on the Labels That Destroy Returns

    In this episode of our new show The 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom explore how the words investors use quietly shape the decisions they make — often in destructive ways. From labels like “cheap,” “expensive,” and “compounder” to debates about valuation, concentration, and AI, the conversation digs into how language collapses uncertainty into false certainty. Drawing on general semantics, mental models, and decades of investing experience, they explain why confusing maps for reality leads investors astray — and how clearer thinking can change how you see markets, risk, and long-term returns. Topics discussed include: Why paying 30x earnings can be rational when return on invested capital stays high How the word “is” smuggles hidden assumptions into investment decisions The difference between a company being a compounder and having compounded in the past Why valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon The “map vs. territory” problem in financial statements and market data Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors How language shapes narratives around value, growth, and risk AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from hype Why many binary true-or-false questions are traps for investors How long-term investors think in decades, not quarters

    1h 15m

  2. 1 DAY AGO

    60-20-20 Changed Everything | Tony Greer on the New Portfolio Regime

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with TG Macro founder Tony Greer to explore why markets are increasingly signaling a loss of faith in institutions and what that means for investors heading into 2026. Tony lays out a framework that connects inflation, central bank credibility, political risk, global regime change, and shifting consumer behavior into a coherent macro narrative. From gold and precious metals to miners, commodities, cyclicals, and the evolving role of AI, this conversation bridges big-picture macro themes with actionable market insights for both traders and long-term investors. Topics covered: • Why gold is rallying as trust in institutions erodes • Central banks, inflation, and the long-term consequences of monetary policy • The shift from a 60-40 portfolio to alternatives and real assets • Precious metals versus technology leadership in a changing market regime • Gold miners, industrial miners, and uranium as core themes • Consumer inflation, food prices, and purchasing power on Main Street • Big Food, Big Pharma, and the broader trust breakdown • Legal, political, and geopolitical risks shaping investor behavior • The end of globalization and the rise of domestic supply chains • Copper, energy, and natural resources in an economic recovery • AI, semiconductors, and signs of a leadership transition • Prediction markets and new tools for understanding market expectations • Financials, airlines, and overlooked cyclical opportunities • How to think about risk management when macro regimes change Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the collapse of trust in institutions 02:00 Why gold is responding to credibility loss, not fear 05:00 Central banks, inflation, and monetary excess 08:20 Purchasing power and real-world inflation pressures 11:00 Big Food, Big Pharma, and consumer awareness 14:00 Healthcare, fraud, and institutional breakdown 16:30 Legal system risk and political credibility 18:30 Global factors, sanctions, and the shift away from globalization 21:00 Precious metals, miners, and natural resource leadership 25:00 The three mining themes driving performance 29:00 Stocks and gold rising together in a new regime 32:00 Gold market structure and long-term trend analysis 36:00 Japan, global bond markets, and gold demand 39:00 Investing versus trading precious metals 43:00 Copper, supply chains, and tech partnerships 47:00 AI leadership, capital rotation, and market risk 51:00 Financials, airlines, and cyclical signals 57:30 What would break the thesis and risk management signals

    1h 1m

  3. 3 DAYS AGO

    You’re Waiting for the Bubble to Burst | Jan van Eck on Why It Already Has

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond. Topics covered in this episode include How VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillars Why declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on markets The case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investors Why thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investing Artificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivity The AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure booms Gold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar world The difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocks Risks and opportunities in private credit and business development companies Why illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFs India’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfolios How family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approach Behavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matter Lessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experience Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework 02:25 Translating macro views into product development 04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on 06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress 07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention 10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions 14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation 19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors 24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact 29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies 38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations 40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs 42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends 47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold 52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets 52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm 56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure 59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts 01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor

    1h 3m

  4. 4 DAYS AGO

    The Crash That Won’t Come | Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather on the Great Housing Reset

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather joins Matt Zeigler to unpack what she calls the Great Housing Reset. Rather than a housing crash or correction, Fairweather argues the market is entering a multi year transition toward something more normal, where incomes gradually catch up to home prices and affordability improves at the margin. The conversation covers mortgage rates, supply constraints, regional housing dynamics, climate risk, policy tradeoffs, and how AI is reshaping real estate decisions for buyers, renters, and investors. Topics covered in this episode • Why the current housing market is a reset, not a crash or correction • How income growth outpacing home price growth could slowly improve affordability • Mortgage rate dynamics and why rates may stay near the low 6 percent range • The mortgage rate lock in effect and why inventory may take years to normalize • Regional housing trends including the Midwest, Northeast, Sunbelt, and tech hubs • The role of wages, rents, and affordability for Gen Z and first time homebuyers • Investor activity, rental markets, and the outlook for housing as an investment • Immigration, foreign buyers, and local market distortions • Multi generational living, ADUs, and creative housing solutions • Housing policy ideas that actually address supply constraints • Why demand side policies like 50 year mortgages miss the real problem • Climate risk, insurance costs, and total cost of home ownership • How AI and conversational search are changing the home buying process • The future of MLS consolidation and real estate market structure • Practical guidance for renters, buyers, and homeowners looking ahead to 2026 Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and the Great Housing Reset 02:00 What a housing reset really means 03:30 Income growth versus home price growth 05:20 Mortgage rates and the outlook for borrowing costs 08:40 Fed policy, bond markets, and mortgage rates 10:40 Inventory shortages and the lock in effect 12:30 Regional housing market winners and losers 16:00 Affordability challenges for younger buyers 19:00 Rental markets and investor dynamics 21:20 Multi generational living and ADUs 25:00 Housing policy and supply constraints 29:30 Why 50 year mortgages do not solve affordability 33:00 Geographic housing outlook by life stage 39:30 Climate risk, insurance, and housing costs 47:00 Energy efficiency and dense housing 50:20 AI, real estate search, and market structure 54:30 What to watch in the housing market through 2026 59:30 Book discussion and where to follow Daryl Fairweather

    1h 1m

  5. 6 DAYS AGO

    The Chart of Truth Is Turning | Rupert Mitchell on the Regime Change Investors Are Missing

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Rupert Mitchell returns to break down a rapidly shifting global macro landscape and explain how he is positioning across regions, assets, and market regimes. The conversation spans emerging markets, commodities, China, Latin America, US market leadership, and the risks building beneath familiar narratives. Rupert walks through the charts, frameworks, and portfolio construction decisions that underpin his current outlook, with a focus on duration, cash flows, and real assets in a changing cycle. Topics covered include: Why US equity leadership is showing signs of fatigue after a decade-plus run The case for emerging markets as a multi-year relative trade Latin America as a commodity-driven opportunity rather than a political bet Brazil, Mexico, and Peru through the lens of fiscal policy and real assets Why India stands out as expensive within emerging markets China’s equity market inflection and the role of domestic savings and fiscal support The difference between onshore A-shares and offshore Chinese equities Why Rupert prefers lower-beta, dividend-oriented exposure in China How AI is being deployed differently in China versus the US The risks facing enterprise software and long-duration growth assets Portfolio construction, benchmarking, and managing drawdowns across cycles How Rupert thinks about hedging, trend following, and capital preservation Timestamps: 00:00 Macro market backdrop and early warning signals 01:00 Venezuela, oil, and why context matters more than headlines 04:40 The chart of truth and US versus international equities 07:00 Emerging markets relative performance and historical parallels 10:00 Duration risk, valuation, and the shift toward real assets 14:30 Mag 7 leadership, software weakness, and AI disruption 18:00 India valuations and the role of flows and derivatives 20:40 Latin America beyond politics: commodities and fiscal drivers 26:00 Brazil, Mexico, and country-level positioning 29:50 Benchmarking and why Latin America is a major overweight 32:10 China’s equity inflection and the ABC framework 36:00 Fiscal policy, buybacks, and domestic savings in China 41:00 Tencent versus Alibaba and managing drawdowns 44:30 AI capex discipline in China versus the US 46:00 Stock selection in China and second-derivative opportunities 51:00 Portfolio construction, benchmarks, and risk management 58:00 Blind Squirrel Macro, live shows, and ongoing research

    1h 1m

  6. 21 JAN

    10 Cents on the Dollar | Gary Mishuris on Mispriced Fear and Lessons from Warner Brothers

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Gary Mishuris, Managing Partner and CIO of Silver Ring Value Partners, to explore how deep fundamental analysis, behavioral insight, and disciplined process come together in real-world investing. Gary shares formative lessons from his early career at Fidelity during the post-tech bubble period, including firsthand experiences learning from legends like Peter Lynch, and connects those lessons to how he evaluates value, quality, and mispricing today. The conversation spans a detailed case study on Warner Bros. Discovery, portfolio construction under uncertainty, selective use of options, and how artificial intelligence is reshaping the research process for long-term investors. Topics covered in this episode • Lessons from Peter Lynch and Fidelity on why “just cheap” does not work • The Silver Ring origin story and how early life experiences shaped a value investing mindset • Warner Bros. Discovery as a good business plus bad business mispricing case study • How hated stocks, spin-offs, and catalysts can unlock hidden value • Conviction, position sizing, and staying rational when the market disagrees • When and why options can be used in a value investing framework • Auctions, ego, and why prices can overshoot intrinsic value • The role of mental models like reflexivity, activation energy, and lollapalooza effects • How AI fits into an investment research process without replacing judgment • What average investors should understand about incentives and simplicity Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why “just cheap” does not work 02:20 Early career at Fidelity and lessons from Peter Lynch 07:40 The Silver Ring story and learning what real value means 12:00 Warner Bros. Discovery and the good company bad company problem 18:30 Conviction, mispricing, and maintaining discipline in hated stocks 26:40 Using options selectively and managing portfolio-level risk 34:10 Auctions, ego, and when price can detach from intrinsic value 44:30 Entertainment, media disruption, and evergreen demand for content 49:50 How AI is changing equity research and idea generation 55:40 What AI can see that humans often miss 01:00:30 One lesson for the average investor

    1h 3m

  7. 20 JAN

    The Line We Can't Cross | Mike Green on the Passive Investing Endgame

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management for a deep dive into how passive investing has reshaped market structure, altered price discovery, and created new sources of systemic risk beneath the surface of today’s equity markets. Mike explains why index funds are not as passive as most investors believe, how daily flows drive prices in increasingly inelastic markets, and why the growth of passive strategies may be pushing markets toward an unstable endpoint. The conversation also explores macro implications, AI-driven capital spending, demographic shifts, and what all of this means for investors navigating the years ahead. Topics covered How passive investing and ETF flows actively influence market prices The inelastic market hypothesis and why markets absorb flows differently than investors expect Why index funds no longer fit the classic definition of passive investing The growing share of passive ownership and what happens as it continues to rise Potential market instability and the theoretical limits of passive dominance How demographics, retirement flows, and 401k defaults affect market structure Critiques of arguments downplaying the impact of passive investing Why large-cap concentration keeps increasing despite slowing fundamentals Implications for active management, stock selection, and liquidity The role of AI, capital expenditures, and energy constraints in the macro outlook What rising electricity demand and infrastructure investment mean for the economy Housing market distortions, demographics, and long-term structural challenges Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and why passive investing is not truly passive 03:00 The inelastic market hypothesis explained 06:00 Daily flows, index funds, and price impact 08:20 How much of the market is now passive 11:40 What happens if passive investing keeps growing 14:20 Retirement flows and demographic effects on markets 19:00 Responding to critiques of passive market impact 23:00 Liquidity, concentration, and large-cap dominance 27:00 Why market cap does not equal liquidity 33:00 Active management under pressure 38:00 Current market conditions and early-year rotations 41:50 Economic growth, GDP, and underlying volatility 43:30 AI capex, overinvestment, and market incentives 47:00 Energy, electricity demand, and long-term constraints 52:40 Housing, demographics, and policy challenges

    56 min

  8. 18 JAN

    Disbelief Is the Real Risk: Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on Why the AI Bubble is Just Getting Started

    This episode of Excess Returns features Gene Munster and Doug Clinton breaking down their 2026 technology and market predictions, with a deep focus on artificial intelligence, big tech, and where investors may be misreading the current cycle. The conversation explores how far along the AI bull market really is, what fundamentals still support it, and where the biggest opportunities and risks may emerge over the next several years. Munster and Clinton discuss market structure, capital spending, valuation, and technological inflection points across AI, software, hardware, and autonomous driving, offering a grounded but forward-looking framework for long-term investors. Main topics covered Why the AI bull market may still have multiple years left and how fundamentals support current valuations Nasdaq return expectations through 2026 and what earnings and multiples imply for investors The case for small-cap and non–Mag Seven tech outperforming as the AI cycle matures Hyperscaler AI capital spending and why CapEx growth could exceed current expectations Whether AI pricing pressure leads to commoditization or expanding long-term value creation How AI is changing the economics of infrastructure, platforms, and asset-heavy tech businesses Apple’s AI strategy, the future of Siri, and why expectations matter for valuation Alphabet, Amazon, and the evolving AI competition among the largest technology companies Energy constraints, data centers, nuclear power, and the infrastructure needed to support AI growth Tesla, Waymo, and the realistic timeline for autonomous driving and robotaxi adoption How physical AI, autonomy, and robotics could reshape transportation and consumer behavior Timestamps 00:00 AI cycle outlook and why the bull market may still be early 05:00 Nasdaq return expectations and earnings fundamentals 10:30 Small-cap tech versus Mag Seven performance 17:15 Hyperscaler AI CapEx and Nvidia’s signals 24:00 Infrastructure, pricing power, and AI commoditization debates 32:30 Apple, Siri, and consumer AI assistants 38:50 Alphabet, Amazon, and AI competition among mega-cap tech 45:00 Energy, data centers, and nuclear power considerations 48:10 Tesla, autonomy, and robotaxi timelines 54:15 Waymo, market share, and the future of transportation

    1 hr
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Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Information

  • Creator
    Excess Returns
  • Years Active
    2019 - 2026
  • Episodes
    450
  • Rating
    Clean
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Show Website
    Excess Returns

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